Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical context and implications of major trade wars in the U.S., emphasizing their impact on global economic governance and the restructuring of international relations, particularly in the context of the current U.S.-China trade friction [2]. Group 1: Historical Trade Wars - The McKinley Tariff (1890-1900) raised average import tariffs to a historical high of 49.5%, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries and ultimately a trade war [4][7]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1930-1934) significantly increased tariffs on over 20,000 goods, raising the average tariff from 40.1% in 1929 to 59.1% in 1932, which exacerbated the Great Depression and led to a 65% drop in global trade from 1929 to 1934 [8][11]. - The U.S.-Japan trade conflict (1970-1985) involved the U.S. imposing tariffs and quotas on Japanese products, which resulted in a significant depreciation of the dollar and a 48% drop in the S&P 500 index from 1973 to 1974 [13][14][15]. Group 2: Economic and Political Impacts - The McKinley Tariff fostered the growth of American industrial capitalism but also increased social inequality and agricultural distress, leading to heightened social tensions [7]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff deepened the Great Depression, with U.S. GDP falling by 26.5% and unemployment soaring to 24.9%, while also ending the gold standard as countries devalued their currencies to boost export competitiveness [11]. - The U.S.-Japan trade conflict highlighted the ineffectiveness of U.S. industrial protection measures, ultimately leading to structural economic issues and the "lost decade" for Japan due to the financial bubble burst [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of political construction and the need for high-quality development in the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strict regulation, and promoting high-quality growth amidst complex external challenges [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Stability and Development - The CSRC has implemented a series of policies to stabilize the capital market, including the "New Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy documents, which aim to enhance market resilience and improve expectations [2][4]. - Key reforms have been initiated, such as promoting long-term capital inflow, public fund reforms, and measures for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [2][5]. - The CSRC is committed to maintaining a stable market environment while addressing risks in key areas like bond defaults and private fund violations [6][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Enhancements - The CSRC is enhancing its regulatory framework by focusing on serious violations such as financial fraud and market manipulation, ensuring strict enforcement of laws [5][6]. - There is a strong emphasis on improving the effectiveness of regulatory measures, utilizing technology to enhance oversight capabilities, and preventing a one-size-fits-all approach in regulation [5][6]. Group 3: Party Construction and Governance - The CSRC is prioritizing the strengthening of party construction within its system, emphasizing political awareness and accountability among its members [9][10]. - Continuous efforts are being made to combat corruption and improve governance, including the implementation of stricter oversight and the promotion of a culture of integrity [9][10]. - The CSRC aims to foster a capable regulatory team by focusing on leadership and personnel development, ensuring that the right individuals are in place to drive the commission's objectives [10].

Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses the recent approval of three key cryptocurrency bills by the U.S. House of Representatives, which are expected to significantly impact capital formation and drive innovation in blockchain technology, thereby reshaping the global digital asset competitive landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The week of July 2025 was designated as "Cryptocurrency Week" by the U.S. legislative body, during which three core digital asset bills were submitted for review [2]. - The "GENIUS Act" was passed with overwhelming support, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which will accelerate their application in payment and settlement scenarios [2]. - The "CLARITY Act" and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" faced legislative hurdles but were ultimately approved and sent to the Senate for further consideration [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The three bills together form a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S., aiming to enhance the dollar's influence in the global digital currency process [2]. - The regulatory matrix delineates clear responsibilities: the "GENIUS Act" focuses on stablecoin regulation, while the "CLARITY Act" introduces a technical protocol audit framework for blockchain networks [2]. - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" prohibits the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), ensuring the innovation and competitive vitality of stablecoins [2]. Group 3: CLARITY Act Details - The "CLARITY Act" establishes a framework for regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets, distinguishing between "digital asset securities" (regulated by the SEC) and "digital commodities" (regulated by the CFTC) [5]. - It introduces a "decentralization maturity assessment system" that adjusts regulatory intensity based on the governance structure's decentralization level [5]. - This act aims to fill the regulatory gap in blockchain technology in the U.S. and establish a compliance foundation for stablecoin infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" anchors the U.S. strategic direction in cryptocurrency regulation, emphasizing the protection of private sector innovation and market autonomy [7]. - It explicitly prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing or managing retail CBDCs, requiring congressional authorization for any government token projects [7]. - The act aims to mitigate the risks associated with programmable currencies, thereby establishing a legal boundary for citizens' financial privacy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The retail asset business of commercial banks in China is currently underperforming, which is seen as a temporary phenomenon. Strategies are suggested to better understand the business logic of retail assets and to focus on risk management models that emphasize the primary repayment source [1][14]. Summary by Sections Performance of Retail Asset Business - The retail asset business, which includes housing mortgage loans, personal consumption loans, personal business loans, and credit card services, is facing significant pressure in 2024, characterized by a slowdown in personal loan growth, declining yields, and rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. The growth rate of personal loans dropped from over 10% before 2021 to 4.89% in 2022 and further to 3.69% in 2024. The average NPL ratio for personal loans increased from below 1% before 2021 to 1.10% in 2022 and 1.51% in 2024, marking a rise of over 65% compared to 2021 [2][3][5]. Characteristics of Retail Asset Business - Retail asset business is characterized by light capital attributes, risk diversification advantages, and weak cyclical features. The light capital nature is reinforced by new regulations effective from 2024, which lower risk weights for various types of retail loans. The risk diversification is due to the broad customer base, minimizing the impact of individual defaults. The weak cyclical nature allows retail assets to provide stability during economic fluctuations, as evidenced by historical data from the U.S. banking sector [8][9][10]. Underperformance as a Temporary Phenomenon - The underperformance of retail asset business since 2022 is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the economy. The real estate market's downturn and weak consumer demand have led to reduced consumer confidence and spending. This imbalance has persisted for over a year, affecting the performance of personal business loans and consumption loans, particularly for small and micro enterprises [13][14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and the investment opportunities it presents, particularly in the context of global and Chinese strategies for achieving carbon peak and neutrality [1][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Perspective on Carbon Peak and Neutrality - The book provides a comprehensive overview of global climate change, energy technologies, and economic transformations related to carbon neutrality [4][7]. Section 2: China's Path to Carbon Peak and Neutrality - It outlines China's specific goals and policies for achieving carbon peak and neutrality, highlighting the legal and institutional frameworks necessary for implementation [5][7]. Section 3: Development of Carbon Markets - The text discusses the construction and evolution of carbon markets, including key points and international participation opportunities [6][7]. Section 4: Carbon Asset Management Theory and Practice - It covers the theoretical foundations and practical applications of carbon asset management, emphasizing the importance of effective management systems [5][7]. Section 5: Investment and Financing Systems for Carbon Neutrality - The book details the investment and financing frameworks that support carbon neutrality initiatives, showcasing typical case studies [6][7]. Section 6: Typical Cases of Carbon Neutrality Investment and Financing - It presents various case studies that illustrate successful investment strategies in the carbon neutrality sector, providing practical insights for stakeholders [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and the capital markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Visit and Pressure on the Fed - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve is the first by a sitting president in nearly 20 years, aimed at pressuring Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump suggested that reducing rates by three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [3]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points in 2026, up from an earlier expectation of 25 basis points [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - Congressman Luna has accused Powell of perjury regarding the $25 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, claiming he misrepresented the project's luxury features and budget adjustments [6]. - The allegations come amid ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies, aiming to undermine Powell's authority and potentially set the stage for his removal [6][9]. - Powell has denied the allegations and initiated an internal review of the renovation project to restore public trust [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-term Risks - Short-term market reactions show a rise in stock indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a focus on corporate earnings rather than political turmoil [7]. - The bond market reflects increased risk aversion, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by approximately 6 basis points [7]. - Long-term risks include challenges to the Fed's independence, which could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored and damage the credibility of the U.S. dollar [7][10]. Group 4: Legal and Internal Factors - Legally, removing the Fed Chairman requires "just cause," and if the perjury allegations are not substantiated, it may be difficult to remove Powell [9]. - Internal opposition exists, with moderate figures like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opposing the removal, citing the current economic stability [9]. Group 5: Conclusion and Investor Guidance - The situation is characterized as a political struggle using moral issues, with limited short-term market impact but potential long-term systemic risks due to the erosion of the Fed's independence [10]. - Investors are advised to monitor the judicial investigation and Trump's policy direction, prioritizing assets that can withstand volatility, such as gold and short-term Treasuries, while being cautious of long-term credit risks associated with dollar assets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of Chinese concept stocks (Chinext) returning to the Hong Kong market due to increasing regulatory pressures in the U.S. and the potential for Hong Kong to become a global technology capital hub and a strategic point for integrating Chinese assets into the global market [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Background of U.S.-China Tensions - The U.S. has long had regulatory tensions regarding Chinese companies listed in the U.S., particularly following the signing of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) in late 2020, which requires foreign companies to undergo audits or face delisting [4][5]. - In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of delisting Chinese stocks, prompting a response from Hong Kong's financial authorities, who are prepared to welcome these companies back [5][6]. Pathways for Chinext to Return - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has established three main pathways for Chinext to return: 1. Re-listing in Hong Kong after privatization in the U.S. 2. Secondary listing in Hong Kong through instruments like Depositary Receipts (DR). 3. Dual primary listing, allowing companies to be listed on multiple exchanges while meeting all regulatory requirements [6][8]. Impact on Hong Kong Market - The return of Chinext is expected to significantly increase trading volume in the Hong Kong market, as seen during previous return waves in 2018-2021, where companies like Xiaomi and Alibaba contributed to substantial increases in IPO fundraising [8][9]. - The structure of the Hong Kong market is also anticipated to change, with a shift towards technology and new economy sectors, as traditional sectors like finance and real estate see their weight decrease [9][11]. Global Capital Market Dynamics - The return of Chinext is reshaping the global capital market landscape, reflecting a shift in financial power dynamics between the U.S. and China, and indicating a move towards a multi-polar capital market structure [10][12]. - The trend is also contributing to a "de-dollarization" movement, as global capital seeks alternatives to U.S. assets, with Hong Kong emerging as a strategic exit for capital fleeing from U.S. markets [12][13]. Regulatory and Market Environment - Hong Kong's unique regulatory environment and its position as a bridge between mainland China and international markets provide a favorable backdrop for the return of Chinext, enhancing its appeal to both domestic and international investors [14][15].

文/ 香港金融管理局 总裁 余伟文 一个月前，我在这个栏目谈到如何推动稳定币在香港稳妥、可持续发展， 并提出应为稳定币热潮降降温。观乎一个月来市场和社会上对稳定币的讨 论热度，降温力度仍需加强。今天我想从监管角度再谈谈我们的看法，以 及下一步如何按照稳妥、可持续的原则落实《稳定币条例》。 避免过度炒作 稳定币也是近期各国央行和金融监管当局讨论较多的课题，讨论的焦点集中在稳定币的内在和外溢风 险，包括对传统金融市场和银行的影响，但更大的关注点在于如何避免稳定币被不法分子利用作洗钱工 具，特别是在跨境使用的场景。俗称「央行的央行」的国际清算银行在最新的年度经济报告中，就用了 不少篇幅强调防范稳定币洗钱风险的重要性。 香港是国际金融中心，监管水平一向以稳健见称，在国际上也有良好的声誉。《稳定币条例》通过以 后，我们马上就落实条例的监管和反洗钱两份指引征求市场意见，目前正根据反馈意见适当调整指引的 要求，争取在7月底公布。我们预期最终的定稿与咨询草稿不会有太大的调整，而鉴于国际监管的共同 关注，在反洗钱方面会订立更严谨的要求，尽量减低稳定币成为洗钱工具的风险，务求让香港稳定币市 场有序健康发展。 张弛有度是一种监管艺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of finance in enabling high-quality development in county areas, which are essential for urban-rural integration and common prosperity in China. It advocates for a comprehensive financial empowerment system that integrates technology, application, and institutional layers to effectively support county development [2][3]. Financial Empowerment Mechanisms - Finance serves as the backbone of the national economy and is crucial for resource allocation and promoting factor mobility. It plays a key role in addressing the imbalances and inadequacies in county development, which include economic expansion alongside structural imbalances, and the need for industrial upgrades amidst factor outflows [3][6]. Industrial Promotion Function - The financial sector is vital for supporting the transformation and development of county industries. Many counties still rely on traditional, inefficient business models, necessitating better organization and resource allocation to reshape industrial chains [7]. - Digital finance enhances service efficiency and promotes collaboration among various stakeholders, leveraging big data and AI to integrate production factors with financial services. This integration helps reduce information asymmetry and drives county economic advancement [8]. Risk Mitigation Function - Counties face complex and diverse risks, making financial risk management essential for maintaining social stability. Financial institutions can enhance the resilience of industrial structures and support small and micro enterprises, thereby diversifying county economies and reducing dependency on single industries [9]. - By establishing risk-sharing mechanisms with local governments, financial institutions can alleviate pressure and improve access to financing for industries, effectively distributing risks between the government and the market [9].