Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is recognized for its deep competitive moat and has achieved a valuation of approximately 358.6 billion USD, making it the top unicorn in the 2025 Global Unicorn List, with a year-on-year growth of 120 billion RMB [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Performance - Baillie Gifford's US Growth Trust has a significant allocation to SpaceX, constituting about 11% of the portfolio, reflecting its status as a primary holding [2][3]. - The fund has been actively investing in SpaceX since its inception, continuously increasing its stake [3]. - The fund managers have reduced their position in Tesla by approximately 40% in the first quarter of 2023, citing a lack of substantial news to support the stock's significant price increase [4][25]. - The fund's performance has improved in 2023 and 2024, with a broader range of contributors to returns, including companies like DoorDash and Meta [9]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - The investment environment has shifted, with a return to a market phase that tests stock-picking abilities rather than being driven solely by macroeconomic factors [9][14]. - Concerns about potential recession risks have increased due to rising policy uncertainties, particularly with the possibility of Trump's re-election [11][13]. - The fund remains focused on high-growth companies, believing that their success is driven more by their ability to seize growth opportunities than by macroeconomic variables [14][16]. Group 3: SpaceX and Starlink - SpaceX holds a dominant position in the aerospace industry, responsible for over 90% of the payloads launched into orbit, thanks to its reusable rocket technology [26]. - The company is also making strides with Starlink, aiming to provide high-speed internet globally, particularly in underserved areas [27][28]. - While SpaceX is seen as a strong investment, there are inherent risks, including technological challenges and regulatory scrutiny in the satellite internet sector [29]. Group 4: Other Key Holdings - Stripe, another significant non-public asset in the portfolio, has shown strong growth, processing approximately 1.4 billion USD in payments in 2024, reflecting a 38% year-on-year increase [40]. - The fund's strategy includes a mix of mature companies like SpaceX and Stripe, alongside early-stage projects in emerging sectors [41]. Group 5: Governance and Shareholder Engagement - The fund faced challenges from activist investor Saba Capital, which sought to change the board, but the proposal was overwhelmingly rejected by other shareholders [43]. - The board is committed to balancing shareholder interests while managing the fund's unique investment strategy, which includes a significant proportion of non-public assets [44]. Group 6: Future Considerations - There is speculation about the potential for SpaceX and Starlink to go public, but currently, there is no urgent need for an IPO as the company is not facing funding pressures [53]. - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term growth and the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio, particularly in light of recent market volatility [66].

本周 推荐阅读 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯今年以来亮相很多，在 各种对话中，最近这场十分值得一看。 他跟The Motley Fool联合创始人及分析师团队直播对谈，交流了50多分钟。 参与提问的三位主持轮番 上阵，从投资者心理误区、反人性行为机制，到团队选人标准、长期收益来源…… 霍华德反反复复地提到投资是件很难的事情，噪音很多，不确定性很多，把握风险的难度很大……"投 资已经够难了，如果再被情绪牵着走，那就更难了"。 他最后还讲到查理·芒格曾对他说："记住，赚钱这事儿从来都不容易。谁觉得容易，那他就是个傻子。" 当我们偶尔觉得赚钱轻松、志得意满的时候，不妨想想这句话～～ 2、 "中国的创新药故事非常值得一讲！"诺华CEO万思瀚与挪威主权基金掌门人深度对话 3、 "黑天鹅之父"塔勒布辣评美国政策，谈及黄金、关税及各种风险 4、 "安全边际大师"赛思·卡拉曼：企业未来现金流才是重要的！格雷厄姆那些核心的价投原则今天仍然适 用 5、 重阳裘国根最新分享：深刻理解并运用这三种思维，将对我们的投资生涯有莫大助益…… 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is considered the only "free lunch" in investing, emphasizing the importance of effective diversification into negatively or lowly correlated assets while seeking higher certainty [1] Group 1: Investment Performance and Strategies - The performance of the 招银理财 products, such as the 嘉裕系列 and 智远系列, shows significant returns, with 嘉裕日开180天 achieving an 8.8% cumulative increase and an annualized return of 3.4% since its inception [2][3] - The investment team proactively adjusted strategies in response to market downturns, such as increasing gold allocations and reducing exposure to volatile equities, which helped recover losses quickly [4] - 招银理财 employs a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach, covering various asset classes including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, domestic bonds, US Treasuries, gold, futures, and options [4] Group 2: Team Structure and Operations - The 固收团队 (fixed income team) has undergone structural adjustments, elevating departments to enhance collaboration and efficiency, managing approximately 600 billion in fixed income products [8] - The investment management process is supported by a proprietary multi-asset management system that facilitates real-time monitoring and compliance, enhancing operational efficiency [10] - The team emphasizes collaboration over individual star managers, with a focus on collective decision-making and shared research among team members [14][15] Group 3: Risk Management and Return Control - 招银理财's products are designed with an absolute return focus, prioritizing risk management and minimizing drawdowns, with specific strategies in place to control volatility and ensure stable returns [12][24] - The 嘉裕系列 employs a down-side volatility control model, which mandates forced reductions in positions when drawdowns exceed predetermined thresholds [24][25] - The investment strategy includes a mix of defensive and offensive tactics, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and adjusting positions based on market conditions [30][41] Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Strategies - The 固收团队 anticipates opportunities in both stock and bond markets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a balanced approach to investment strategies [53] - The focus will be on structural alpha extraction in equities while maintaining a stable yield strategy in bonds, adapting to market fluctuations [53]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the increasing recognition of Shanghai as a new innovation hub alongside traditional centers like Boston and San Diego [3][94]. - It emphasizes the strategic focus of Novartis under CEO Vasant Narasimhan, who has transformed the company into a pure-play innovative drug firm, significantly increasing its market valuation [4][14]. - The role of AI in drug discovery is underscored, with Novartis collaborating with Google’s DeepMind to enhance drug development processes [5][55]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - Novartis, valued at approximately $233 billion, has seen its core valuation rise from about $210 billion since Vasant Narasimhan took over in 2018, with a potential total value of around $330 billion if spun-off businesses are included [4][14]. - The company has shifted its focus from a diversified business model to a concentrated strategy on innovative pharmaceuticals, divesting non-core assets like Alcon and Sandoz [12][14]. - This strategic pivot has resulted in a market capitalization increase to $235 billion, demonstrating the value released through this focus [14]. Group 2: AI and Innovation - AI is viewed as a critical tool for identifying new drug targets and optimizing molecular structures, with Novartis actively engaging in partnerships to leverage AI in drug discovery [5][55]. - The company is exploring the potential of AI to significantly reduce the time required for early-stage drug development, potentially saving years in the process [56][57]. - Novartis is also investing in cutting-edge technology platforms, positioning itself as a leader in areas such as radioligand therapy and gene therapy [19][20]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - The article highlights the challenges faced by the European pharmaceutical market, which is becoming increasingly constrained due to government policies that limit the commercialization of innovations [64][65]. - In contrast, the U.S. and China are rapidly expanding their pharmaceutical markets, with China emerging as the second-largest market globally, growing at a double-digit rate [67][93]. - The article notes that many new drugs are now launched first in the U.S. and China, with Europe losing its competitive edge in drug approvals and market access [71][72]. Group 4: Future Directions and Challenges - The future of the pharmaceutical industry is expected to be shaped by advancements in early intervention strategies, gene therapy, and RNA therapies, which could revolutionize treatment paradigms [32][33][37]. - The potential fragmentation of global clinical trial data between the U.S. and China poses a significant risk to drug development, emphasizing the need for collaboration in clinical research [95][96]. - The article concludes with a call for European leaders to take decisive action to revitalize the pharmaceutical sector and ensure that innovation is not stifled by restrictive policies [68][70].

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is about purchasing securities or assets at prices below their actual value, often summarized as "buying for 50 cents what is worth a dollar" [1][25][26] - Investors must balance multiple objectives, including generating returns, long-term capital growth, and risk management, while maintaining liquidity to respond to future needs [5][6] - The future cash flow of a business is the most critical factor in investment decisions [1][15] Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investors must become excellent business analysts, especially in the digital age where information is readily available [1][52][55] - The principles of value investing remain applicable despite market changes over the past 90 years, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis [7][8] - Market inefficiencies create opportunities for value investors to buy undervalued securities when prices deviate from intrinsic value [16][20][29] Group 2: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - Stock price fluctuations can be both a challenge and an opportunity, as they often reflect market sentiment rather than the underlying business performance [16][18][20] - Investors must resist the tendency to overreact to price increases while selling off during price declines, which can lead to missed opportunities [33][34][35] - Behavioral biases can significantly impact investment decisions, leading to inefficiencies in the market [29][30][37] Group 3: Valuation Techniques - Valuation is both an art and a science, requiring a combination of analytical skills and subjective judgment [41][51] - Investors should use multiple methods to assess a company's value, including discounted cash flow analysis and market multiples [42][44] - The quality of future cash flows is paramount, and investors must consider the sustainability and sources of growth when evaluating potential investments [46][60][63] Group 4: Management and Corporate Governance - The skills and motivations of a company's management team are crucial for determining shareholder returns, and past actions are often the best predictor of future behavior [50][51] - Investors must be cautious when investing in companies where management may prioritize their interests over those of shareholders [51] - Engaging with underperforming companies can present opportunities for activist investors to unlock value through management changes [51]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes three universal principles from "Security Analysis" that transcend time: equity thinking, contrarian thinking, and risk thinking [1][19][20] Group 1: Equity Thinking - Investment is a game based on value, requiring a perspective from the owner's viewpoint, which is termed equity thinking [9][10] - Equity thinking serves as the foundation for long-termism, as only owners are willing to grow with the company [12][19] Group 2: Contrarian Thinking - The article discusses the human tendency of herd behavior, particularly in the stock market, which distorts investment actions [13][14] - Recognizing the cyclical nature of market emotions allows rational investors to question popular consensus and act contrary to the crowd [14][19] Group 3: Risk Thinking - The financial world is filled with "black swan" events that can have devastating impacts, highlighting the asymmetrical nature of financial risks [15][18] - Investment strategies must possess "traversability," meaning they should avoid irreversible actions that could lead to total loss [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy-making approach in the U.S. is deemed highly irrational, with significant misalignment in resource allocation and economic strategy [38][41][49]. Group 1: Tail Risk and Market Dynamics - Investors' understanding of tail risks has deteriorated, leading to a more distorted pricing of these risks in the current market environment [5][9][10]. - Tail risk hedging strategies can be effective in extreme scenarios, outperforming other hedging methods [5][6][22]. - The market's short-term fluctuations are influenced more by capital flows between different asset classes rather than fundamental economic changes [15][16]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. faces structural issues, including a growing fiscal deficit exacerbated by high interest rates, which complicates maintaining economic stability [17][18][19]. - The trend of increasing debt in developed economies is counterproductive, as wealthier nations tend to experience slower economic growth [17][19]. - The reliance on external labor is critical for the U.S. economy, and cutting off this supply could lead to significant operational challenges [50][51][53]. Group 3: Dollar and Gold as Reserve Assets - The dollar is increasingly viewed as an unreliable store of value, with central banks diversifying their reserves into gold [29][25][26]. - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing skepticism about the dollar's reliability, particularly after geopolitical tensions [25][29]. Group 4: Policy Misalignment and Consequences - Current U.S. tariffs and trade policies are seen as detrimental, effectively acting as a consumption tax that disproportionately affects lower-income individuals [45][46]. - The use of tariffs lacks coherent logic and strategic thinking, leading to inefficient resource allocation [38][41][44]. - The potential benefits of artificial intelligence in boosting productivity are viewed skeptically, as they do not address immediate economic challenges [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The core competency of value investors often lies in patience, particularly the patience to refrain from making impulsive decisions [18][19]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The performance of the managed products has been relatively stable, with several funds outperforming the market despite a lackluster overall performance in 2023 [2][3]. - The top holdings remain consistent, primarily in traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to these industries [2][3]. - The long-term annualized return of the flagship product managed since December 2018 exceeds 16% [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The source of excess returns is attributed to a combination of establishing a forward-looking advantage in information, deeper analysis, and different perspectives [8]. - The investment approach emphasizes acquiring high-quality assets at low prices, which is more feasible when the majority do not share the same valuation standards [5][6]. - The belief that good stocks and returns are achieved through endurance and patience is a recurring theme [20]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current market environment has seen prolonged low performance in cyclical industries, which has exceeded most investors' expectations [10]. - The concept of "this time is different" is highlighted as a cautionary note, indicating that prolonged low performance can delay cash returns and diminish value over time [11]. - The outlook for the real estate sector suggests that risks may not be fully cleared, with a preference for a cautious approach until 2025 [13]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - In the banking sector, while the long-term contraction of interest margins is not yet over, the current pricing remains acceptable based on long-term perspectives [14][15]. - The construction industry has shown signs of cash flow improvement, aligning with expectations, which reduces concerns [15]. - The chemical sector faces challenges with many companies operating at a loss, yet some are still managing to generate profits through cost-cutting measures [15]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - The development of AI is viewed as an irreversible trend, although its immediate impact may be overestimated [16]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach to emerging sectors, emphasizing the need for thorough research and understanding of price dynamics [22].

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant event, the "Global Chinese Wealth Management and Inheritance Summit," scheduled for August 1, 2025, in Singapore, featuring prominent speakers such as Jim Rogers and Nassim Nicholas Taleb [1] - The summit offers three complimentary passes valued at 2166 yuan per person, excluding transportation, accommodation, and visa costs, targeting attendees in or visiting Singapore [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a related discussion on current Silicon Valley investment and technology trends, emphasizing the depth of insights shared by influential figures like Reid Hoffman [2] - It encourages readers to engage with the content by sharing their thoughts in the comments section, with the most liked responses receiving rewards [2] - Additional recommended readings include insights from Howard Marks on investment wisdom and discussions on value investing strategies [2]

6 月 18 日，橡树资本联合创始人霍华德 · 马克斯发布了最新备忘录《再谈放弃经济法则》，聚焦一个 近年在美国社会中频繁出现的趋势，即越来越多的政策都与基本的经济法则背道而行，往往出现荒唐的 局面。 霍华德列举了多个实例，包括对于房租价格的强行压低，以及加州火灾保险匪夷所思的症结点等等。 他反复强调，经济法则并不会因为我们不喜欢它们就失效，管控过度往往结果更糟。 在"解放日"关税带来的冲击过去两个月之后，这期备忘录对关税问题的讨论尤为集中。 霍华德认为，关税的本质，就是通过对外来商品加税，来保护本国工业免受冲击，而"政府无法不付代 价地要求所有东西都在本国制造"。 他直接写道： 最终结果是，消费者支付的价格比没有关税时高得多，而出口商品的国际竞争力反而下 降，因为本地厂商的成本太高，难以在全球市场中立足。 对于希望制造业回流美国的幻想主义，霍华德则引用了英国经济史学家尼尔 · 弗格森的话说， " 我们 无法回到 1950 年代，更别说 1910 年代。无论是社会结构还是经济结构，都已经无法逆转。" 霍华德还谈到美国民选官员是如何在实践中对经济法则视而不见的典型例子，在他看来，美国当前对赤 字、债务和社保体系 ...