以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 府库 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 昨天下午3点A股刚一收盘，就眼看着港股一路直线拉升，伴随着的就是中美双方在贸易方面达成的协定，在 前一段时间互相加上的关税大幅下降，对市场也是实质性利好，恒生指数上涨2.98%，恒生科技上涨5.16%。 从今年开始时每个月会对美股的标普500ETF与纳斯达克100ETF的限购与折溢价情况进行跟踪，当下改善明 显，海外配置与多元类的投顾组合当下布局已经完全没有问题了。 01 场内折溢价跟踪 注意这个12%的溢价率也不是可以长期可以维持的，买的时候就买溢价正常的基金就可以。 来源：雪球 我们先来看折溢价情况，标普500ETF场内的基金不多，只有3只，除了国泰的标普500ETF 159612由于基金 限购问题，依旧保持着12%以上的溢价率，其他两只ETF的溢价率只有1%左右，溢价情况与成交量都完全满 足当下的配置诉求了。 | 基金代码 | 基金名称 | 2025年回报率(%) | 申购限额 | 基金规模(亿元) | 综合费率 | | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive dynamics in the Chinese liquor market, particularly focusing on the impact of Moutai's pricing strategies on other major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, highlighting the tension between maintaining brand prestige and responding to market pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Pricing Strategy - Moutai has the potential to position itself as a luxury brand akin to Lafite, but management is concerned about high prices being politically sensitive, leading to a focus on maintaining affordability for consumers [2][3]. - The price of Moutai has dropped significantly from over 3000 yuan to around 2000 yuan, which has stabilized revenue but negatively impacted brand perception [2][3]. - Moutai's price adjustments have led to a ripple effect in the market, forcing competitors like Wuliangye to lower their price expectations and adjust their product offerings [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Competitors - Wuliangye initially aimed to enter the 1000 yuan price segment but has been forced to remain in the 900 yuan range due to Moutai's price decline [3][4]. - Other brands, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Jian Nan Chun, have also retreated to lower price segments as a result of Moutai's pricing strategy, indicating a significant shift in the market landscape [3][4]. - The introduction of Moutai 1935 at a price of 1188 yuan has intensified competition, affecting the market share of other brands in the premium liquor segment [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The economic environment is expected to remain challenging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao focusing on inventory reduction and adjusting their pricing strategies to remain competitive [5]. - Moutai and Wuliangye are now engaging in price competition in lower segments, indicating a shift in strategy to capture market share from mid-tier brands [5][6]. - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly brutal, with brands needing to balance pricing and brand equity to survive in a market where price is a significant determinant of brand perception [5][6].

中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布 据新华社， 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，以下是声明全文： 中华人民共和国政府（"中国"）和美利坚合众国政府（"美国"）， 认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性； A股这边刚收盘，港股就直线拉升，截止发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒生指数、国企指数涨超 3%。 截至收盘， 今天A股也表现强势， 沪指涨0.82%，深成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨2.63%， 全市 场成交额13409亿元，较上日放量1185亿元。 一起来看今天的市场热点。 认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性； 鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题； 本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作； 双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措： 美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳 门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按 该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令 和2025年4月 ...

球友的最常讨论的投资问题是什么？ 雪球对过去一段时间的用户搜索和社区内容做了一次研究，我们根据语义聚合出了以下问题： 这些问题是球友近期最关心的问题。 但是，要回答好这些问题是非常困难的。 通常需要多次的搜索、内容阅读、总结。 在这个过程中，投资者更难解决的问题是 识别和筛选 准确、高价值、对投资决策有帮助的信息。 「雪球思考」= 你的投资问题分析师 「雪球思考」是由雪球 APP 发布，面向股票 & 基金投资领域的在线 AI 产品。 通过这个产品，我们为球友提供了一个 投资问题分析师 。专门回答球友的投资问题。 目前产品提供两种提问模式：雪球思考 / 全网搜索。 多说无益，让我们看三个实际案例。感受一下「雪球思考」的强大之处。 案例 1：怎么看现在的中国平安？ 让我们先来关注这个问题的思考过程（全部来自真实数据）： 看看经过这个思考过程之后，生成的回答质量怎么样~ 怎么看现在的中国平安？ 中美关税战中，特斯拉的股价会受到什么影响？ 黄金今年涨幅很大的原因是什么？ 招商银行相比其他银行股的核心优势是什么？ 腾讯控股目前的投资价值如何？ 阿里巴巴已经走出困境了吗？ 为什么今年港股创新药涨这么好？ 投资小米近期需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between Free Cash Flow Index and Low Volatility Dividend Index, focusing on stock selection criteria, industry distribution, and performance characteristics. Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Free Cash Flow Index considers multiple factors including free cash flow and earnings quality, representing a growth value style [5][21] - The selected stocks in the Free Cash Flow Index include growth-oriented companies such as CATL, Midea Group, and Wuliangye [6] - Low Volatility Dividend Index focuses on liquidity, dividend yield, and volatility, selecting high dividend, low volatility stocks, typical of a value style [10][21] Group 2: Industry Distribution - Free Cash Flow Index covers growth sectors like telecommunications, power equipment, home appliances, and food and beverage, with these sectors accounting for over 34% of the index weight [12][21] - Low Volatility Dividend Index primarily includes undervalued, high dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, construction, textiles, coal, and steel [14][21] Group 3: Concentration and Performance - Free Cash Flow Index has a high concentration with the top ten stocks accounting for nearly 70% of the index weight, leading to higher volatility risk [17][21] - In contrast, Low Volatility Dividend Index has a more dispersed weight distribution, with the highest individual stock weight below 3%, resulting in lower volatility risk [19][21] - Performance-wise, from 2019 to 2021, the Free Cash Flow Index increased by over 90%, while the Low Volatility Dividend Index rose by only about 30% [23][25]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 非完全进化体 来源：雪球 过去几年 ， 我们部分持仓基于低市盈率 、 较高股息率筛选细分行业竞争格局稳固的中小市值龙 头公司进行投资 。 即便同样承受了经济景气回落的压力 ， 但因买得足够便宜 ， 整体还是获得 了一定相对收益 。 基本 " 躲开 " 了这一期间 ， 消费 、 互联网 、 医药 、 新能源等领域核心 资产从估值高位持续回落的过程 。 去年下半年以来 ， 内外部环境冲击及不确定性进一步加剧 。 缺少足够产业链地位的中小市值公 司 ， 即便作为某一细分行业的龙头 ， 盈利的稳定性也经常遭受各种考验 。 在行业竞争加剧与 外部利空冲击下 ， 公司治理中的各种问题也更容易暴露出来 。 即便这些公司的管理层相比国内大多数企业已经属于最优秀的一批 。 但应知道 ， 中国绝大多数 行业龙头公司的发展历程也才10-20年 。 有很多问题与考验尚未遭遇 ， 最典型的诸如应对官僚 体系问题 、 股权架构制约问题 、 二代接班及职业经理人体系建立 、 全球化过程中应对各类政 策风险的能力 ， 包括公平公开的对待各类投资者的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that 2024 will be a disappointing year for the investor community of Pizhou Huang, as the company's revenue growth is projected to be only 7.25%, marking the second consecutive year of growth below 10% and the lowest in nearly a decade [2][16]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - Pizhou Huang's revenue for 2024 is reported at 10.787 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.25%, and a net profit of 2.977 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.42% [16]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a rare decline in revenue, with a year-on-year drop of 0.92% [16]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 also experienced a revenue decline of 5.7%, indicating a troubling trend for the company [16]. Historical Context and Market Position - Pizhou Huang's market value surged from 1 billion at its IPO in 2003 to nearly 300 billion in 2021, achieving a nearly 300-fold increase over 18 years [4]. - The company was once synonymous with "market value myth," particularly during the boom of the liquor sector from 2020 to 2021, when its price-to-earnings ratio peaked at 160 times [4][11]. - The brand was closely associated with high-end gifting and investment, often marketed alongside Moutai, creating a perception of scarcity and investment value [4][11]. Price Dynamics and Market Trends - Pizhou Huang has undergone multiple price increases since its inception, with the latest adjustment in May 2023 raising the price to 760 per unit, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [8][11]. - The price of Pizhou Huang's products has seen a drastic decline, with secondary market prices dropping to around 500, and even lower for near-expiry products [15][16]. Challenges and Strategic Shifts - The company faces rising raw material costs, with prices for key ingredients like natural musk and cow bile skyrocketing, which has pressured profit margins despite price increases [15][16]. - Pizhou Huang is attempting to reposition itself by emphasizing its medicinal properties and conducting clinical trials to validate its efficacy, moving away from the perception of being merely a high-end gift [19][20]. - The company is also investing in research and development for new drug formulations, although its historical R&D spending has been low, raising concerns about its capacity to innovate effectively [20][21]. Diversification Efforts - Pizhou Huang has been exploring diversification into the personal care sector, launching several cosmetic brands, but this segment has not yet achieved significant growth [21][23]. - The company aims to replicate the success of other brands by integrating pharmaceutical and consumer goods, but current performance in this area remains underwhelming [21][23]. Conclusion - The decline in Pizhou Huang's market position reflects a broader trend of rational consumer behavior in China, where the previous reliance on marketing and perceived value is being challenged [23][24]. - The company must focus on delivering genuine product efficacy and value to regain consumer trust and stabilize its market position in the evolving landscape [23][24].

消息上， 一方面，山东墨龙股票于4月30日停牌1天，5月6日开市起复牌并撤销其他风险警示，证券简称由"st墨龙"变更为"山东墨龙"。另一方 面，深交所5月6日发布公告，因山东墨龙在深交所上市的A股被撤销其他风险警示，将山东墨龙调入深港通下的港股通标的证券名单，并自2025年 5月6日起生效。 "摘帽"及重返港股通标的证券名单后，山东墨龙股价连续拉升，H股两天最大涨幅一度超476%。 在此背景下，山东墨龙却在三日内遭遇大股东暴力减持约17%的总股本！一起来看具体情况。 01 成功"摘帽" 山东墨龙单日飙升200%！ 5月6日，正式"脱帽"的山东墨龙高开高走。其中，A股股票在早盘开盘后不久就强势涨停，H股则在午后大幅拉升，一度涨幅超过200%。 相关公告显示，最近六年，山东墨龙扣非后净利润连续为负值。2023年公司财务报告被年审会计师出具带持续经营重大不确定性段落的无保留意见 审计报告，公司股票交易因此被实施其他风险警示。 2024年亏损大幅收窄，公司成功"摘帽"。从财务数据来看，2024年公司实现营业总收入13.56亿元，较上一年增长约3%。归属于上市公司股东的 净利润虽仍处于亏损状态，但与2023年的亏损5. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of global assets and identifies the best-performing safe-haven assets based on historical data analysis over the past 20 years, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns in investment strategies [4][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The recent market fluctuations have been more significant compared to previous years, with the A-share market performing relatively well, while the US stock market has experienced a notable decline of over 20% in the last two months [4][6]. - Long-term investors may view recent downturns as mere corrections, but those who entered the market in January may feel the impact of a 2.6%+ decline over a month [6]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Safe-Haven Assets - Important metrics for evaluating safe-haven assets include maximum drawdown, recovery time from drawdowns, and the probability of positive returns over various holding periods [11][12][13]. - The analysis includes various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, and cash-like investments to determine their performance as safe-haven assets [14][15]. Group 3: Performance of Safe-Haven Assets - The analysis reveals that Chinese money market funds are the top-performing safe-haven asset, with only a 0.03% maximum drawdown and a 100% probability of positive returns over one year [19][21]. - In contrast, US short-term government bonds have a lower positive return probability of only 40% during low-interest periods, indicating their limited effectiveness as a safe haven [21]. Group 4: Comparison of Bonds and Gold - Chinese bonds exhibit a maximum drawdown of 14.52% with a high probability of positive returns over five years, while US bonds have a maximum drawdown of 51.76% and a less than 50% probability of positive returns annually [24]. - Gold has shown significant price increases recently but has also experienced substantial drawdowns in the past, highlighting the need for caution regarding its volatility [25]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Indian stock market demonstrates the highest risk-return efficiency, with a 97.89% probability of positive returns over five years, outperforming US and Chinese markets [26][28]. - Emerging markets, such as Vietnam, show extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 79.35%, indicating high risk for investors [29][30]. Group 6: Multi-Asset Strategy - A balanced risk parity strategy combining A-shares, Taiwanese stocks, US bonds, gold, and Chinese money market funds yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.134, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to individual assets [34][35]. - This multi-asset approach provides stability and a high probability of positive returns over various holding periods, making it a viable long-term investment strategy [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares the financial performance and business strategies of two leading companies in the traditional Chinese medicine sector: Pian Zai Huang and Yunnan Baiyao, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses in profitability, business structure, cash flow, and shareholder returns [2][7]. Profitability - Pian Zai Huang reported a revenue of 3.142 billion yuan in Q1, a slight decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 2.59% to 1 billion yuan. The gross margin decreased from 47% to 45%, while sales expenses were cut by 38%, resulting in a net profit of 32 yuan per 100 yuan sold, an increase of 0.8 yuan from the previous year [2][5]. - Yunnan Baiyao achieved a revenue of 10.841 billion yuan, a minor increase of 0.62%, with net profit soaring by 13.67% to 1.935 billion yuan. The industrial gross margin reached 68.34%, with industrial revenue up by 7.63%. The company also reduced sales expenses by 13.23% and management expenses by 3.12%, while R&D expenses rose by 4.96% [2][4]. Business Structure - Pian Zai Huang's core business focuses on liver disease medication, facing significant cost pressures with the price of raw materials increasing by 154%. The company raised the price of its key product to 760 yuan per unit and expanded its distribution network, resulting in a 21% increase in hospital sales. Additionally, its cosmetics line generated 100 million yuan in revenue, a 41% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - Yunnan Baiyao's industrial segment generated 4.470 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.63% increase, while its commercial segment brought in 6.371 billion yuan but with a low gross margin of 6.21%. The company is also integrating AI technology into its operations for marketing and R&D [4][5]. Cash Flow and Risks - Pian Zai Huang reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 916 million yuan, a 72.33% increase, attributed to strong cash collection and extended supplier payment terms. The company has sufficient inventory to last until 2030 [5]. - Yunnan Baiyao's operating cash flow was 714 million yuan, a 35.39% increase, but it faced high accounts receivable of 10.924 billion yuan, a 10.08% increase, indicating potential cash collection challenges [5]. Dividends and Valuation - Pian Zai Huang's diluted earnings per share were 1.66 yuan, with a dividend yield of less than 1%, indicating a conservative approach to shareholder returns [6]. - Yunnan Baiyao reported earnings per share of 1.08 yuan, with a dividend yield of around 4% and a high payout ratio of 90.09%, reflecting a more generous distribution to shareholders [6]. Conclusion - Pian Zai Huang relies on scarce raw materials, brand premium, and diversification into cosmetics to maintain its market value, but faces long-term innovation challenges due to low R&D spending [7]. - Yunnan Baiyao leverages its toothpaste and daily chemical products along with AI transformation to solidify its market leadership, but contends with low margins in its commercial segment and high accounts receivable [7].