Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation around the 3600 level, with a generally optimistic outlook among investors, as indicated by high trading volumes. There are no systemic risk signals present, and the dual logic of "Chinese asset value reassessment + improvement in listed company quality" is just entering its mid-stage, suggesting that opportunities outweigh risks significantly [4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Avoiding the practice of chasing hot stocks is crucial, as it often leads to impulsive decisions that disregard initial investment logic and value considerations [7][8]. - The pyramid-style averaging down strategy is highlighted as a common pitfall, where investors tend to add funds at high market levels, increasing their cost basis and reducing risk tolerance [10][12]. - Frequent short-term trading without a solid rationale can lead to high transaction costs and missed opportunities, ultimately draining investor confidence and energy [14][15]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current economic environment is characterized by concerns over deflation, but historically, currency devaluation and mild inflation have been the prevailing trends. This context suggests that reasonably priced assets may serve as effective hedges against mild inflation in the future [16]. - The ongoing debate around the 3600 point level emphasizes the need for investors to maintain confidence in the long-term potential of the "Chinese asset value reassessment + improvement in listed company quality" narrative while correcting poor investment habits [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified investment strategies to balance risk and return, highlighting three main asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities [2][3][56]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The first method of wealth generation is becoming a shareholder by investing in companies expected to grow, such as buying stocks of popular brands like Moutai [6][7]. - The second method involves investing in gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, especially during times of geopolitical uncertainty [9]. - The third method is acting as a creditor by lending money and earning interest, which is a more stable but lower-yielding investment [10][11]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Historical performance of A-shares shows significant volatility, with a peak of 6000 points in 2007 and a current level around 3600 points, raising questions about future trends [15][19]. - Gold prices are also at historical highs, leading to uncertainty about future price movements [20]. - The bond market, particularly 10-year government bonds, offers low yields (1.7%), indicating a trade-off between risk and return [27][28]. Group 3: Diversification Benefits - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to reduce risk and enhance potential returns [29][31]. - A recent example illustrates how different asset classes react differently to market events, showcasing the benefits of low correlation among them [39]. - The article presents a hypothetical investment scenario demonstrating that a diversified portfolio can mitigate losses and improve recovery chances compared to a concentrated investment strategy [43][51]. Group 4: Practical Application - The article suggests a specific asset allocation strategy of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities, which has yielded a cumulative return of nearly 10% year-to-date [55]. - It introduces the "Snowball Three-Point Method" for replicating a diversified investment strategy, focusing on long-term investment and asset allocation [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, suggesting that it is in a bull market phase that has not yet reached its end, emphasizing the importance of investor sentiment in determining market stages [7][13][15]. Market Sentiment and Phases - The article outlines the emotional responses of investors during different market phases, indicating that the current market sentiment reflects a transition from the early to mid-bull market phase [10][12][13]. - It identifies key characteristics of each market phase, such as the lack of interest in stocks during the bear market's end and the excitement among analysts and investors during the bull market's mid-phase [10][12]. Current Market Analysis - The market has shown significant growth, with the index rising from 2600 points to 3600 points, indicating a strong bull market [8][12]. - The article notes that the current market is characterized by increasing excitement among analysts and investors, with various sectors experiencing growth, suggesting that the bull market is still ongoing [12][14]. Investor Behavior - The article highlights the behavior of new investors who are becoming increasingly optimistic about potential returns, reflecting a typical sign of a bull market nearing its peak [11][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and patience in investment strategies, especially in the current market environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a systematic and emotionless investment strategy, particularly through regular investment in index funds, to withstand market volatility and emotional reactions [4][33]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The essence of the market is volatility, and investors often react emotionally, leading to poor decision-making such as chasing highs or cutting losses prematurely [6][10]. - A mechanical execution of a pre-defined investment strategy can help investors avoid emotional pitfalls and maintain discipline during market fluctuations [6][9]. - Establishing rules during calm periods is crucial to ensure adherence during turbulent times, allowing investors to remain steadfast [4][6]. Group 2: Key Elements of a Long-term Investment Strategy - A long-term investment strategy should include four key elements: a suitable index fund portfolio, defined investment and accumulation conditions, attention to rebalancing and pre-set profit-taking conditions, and thorough record-keeping and periodic review [10][11]. - The portfolio should be built based on risk tolerance and the intended use of funds, incorporating broad-based indices and sector-specific indices for flexibility [12][13]. - Setting specific conditions for investment and accumulation, such as regular intervals for evaluation and thresholds for undervaluation, is essential for disciplined investing [14][16]. - Regular rebalancing and pre-defined profit-taking strategies help maintain the desired portfolio structure and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [18][19]. Group 3: Tools and Processes for Execution - Implementing a set of tools and processes is necessary to transform investment rules into automatic actions, ensuring consistent execution [21][22]. - Key tools include an index holding table, a valuation temperature table, an execution checklist, and an operation log to track investment activities and adherence to the strategy [23][24][26]. - Periodic reviews and optimizations of the strategy based on accumulated experience and changing market conditions are vital for long-term success [28][30]. Group 4: Conclusion - The journey of long-term investing is often turbulent, requiring a structured approach to navigate market fluctuations effectively [31][32]. - By establishing rules, building a disciplined investment framework, and utilizing tools for execution, investors can achieve stable returns while minimizing emotional interference [33][34].

曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 上周，两融余额突破了2万亿元，创近10年新高。 你觉得牛市来了吗？ 牛市，听起来很美好，很振奋人心：06-07年沪指翻了4倍多，19-21年，明星主动基金经理业绩也翻了2倍多。 这是市场的涨幅，那我们个人投资者呢？ 据统计，在2015年的牛市中，资产规模低于50万的散户，累计亏损金额达2500亿元，亏损幅度达30%，而这部分投资者占账户总数的85%。 牛市 只让很少的人赚钱，但是让更多人亏损甚至破产，牛市并没有大家想象的那么美好。 一、 牛市 比 熊市 更容易亏钱 我们倾向于认为，牛市遍地都是钱，熊市才会亏钱。但事实是，牛市的剧烈波动、板块的快速轮动，更容易让我们做出错误操作。比如： 1、越涨越 加仓 牛市在质疑声中上涨。 在牛市初期，由于你的谨慎，投入的本金并不多。 但是随着市场上涨，伴随媒体渲染、更多人赚到钱，你也越来越坚信牛市来临，并且逐渐投入越来越多的本金。 但是，风险在上涨中逐步累积。 你在高位投入的资金，所承担的风险要远远大于低位时投入的资金。 这种越涨越买的加仓方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the trade-offs between certainty, prosperity, and valuation in investment strategies, suggesting that investors must adopt a flexible approach to identify opportunities and manage risks effectively [3][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The concept of "the impossible triangle" illustrates that no investment opportunity can possess certainty, prosperity, and valuation simultaneously, requiring investors to prioritize two while sacrificing one [4]. - Three basic investment styles emerge from this triangle: - Deep value investing focuses on certainty and valuation, sacrificing prosperity [4]. - Sector rotation focuses on prosperity and valuation, sacrificing certainty [4]. - Track allocation focuses on prosperity and certainty, sacrificing valuation [4]. - The article discusses the deep value investment method, which is suitable for non-professional investors but requires overcoming psychological challenges related to market fluctuations [6][10]. Group 2: Sector Allocation - The article argues that abandoning valuation can be an effective strategy, as market consensus on valuation is subjective and can change over time [9]. - During periods of high prosperity, such as from May 2020 to November 2021, the most successful investment strategies were those that did not focus on valuation [10]. - Investors should consider a "configuration strategy," allocating part of their portfolio to high-prosperity sectors while seeking high-certainty stocks, often leading to standard configurations among institutional investors [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Trend Investment - Industry trend investment capitalizes on high-growth sectors, which often experience rapid valuation changes, making it challenging to apply traditional valuation methods [15][16]. - The article highlights that early-stage industry trends can lead to significant stock price increases, as seen in the lithium battery sector [17]. - Investors must navigate the uncertainty of defining "early-stage" trends, as market conditions can shift rapidly, impacting stock performance [18][19]. Group 4: Forecasting and Response - Investors need to predict changes in both prosperity and market expectations, as high prosperity sectors can lead to rapid stock price declines when signs of downturns appear [25][26]. - The article stresses the importance of qualitative analysis alongside quantitative tracking of prosperity to avoid pitfalls in investment strategies [28]. - A successful investment approach requires understanding the nature of the risks involved and aligning strategies with personal investment styles [32][33].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50%, continuing to set new highs for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,905.2 billion yuan, an increase of 55.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,000 stocks rising across the market [1] Key Stocks and Sectors - Cambricon Technologies (寒武纪) experienced a significant surge, hitting the daily limit of 20% and reaching a historical high above 800 yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 11 billion yuan and a net inflow of 2.016 billion yuan from major investors [3][6] - The energy metals and military equipment sectors faced adjustments, while the computing power and photolithography sectors strengthened in the afternoon [1] AI and Semiconductor Developments - Huawei is set to release AI inference innovation technology UCM, which is expected to reduce China's reliance on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology and enhance the performance of domestic AI large model inference [6] - A recent agreement between U.S. chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD with the Trump administration requires them to pay 15% of their revenue from chip sales to China to obtain export licenses [8][9] - The semiconductor market is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion dollars by 2030, driven by AI, with HPC/AI terminal markets expected to account for 45% of the semiconductor market by that time [15] Regional Developments - Stocks related to Xinjiang saw a resurgence, with Hongtong Gas achieving five consecutive trading limits, and several other local stocks also performing well [12][17] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan, indicates continued investment in major projects in the region, with total project investments potentially reaching 400 billion yuan [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current distribution of market capitalization among major indices in the A-share market, highlighting a significant decline in the proportion of the CSI 300 index compared to other indices, particularly in the context of recent market volatility and liquidity issues [2][3][5]. Market Capitalization Distribution - As of August 8, the CSI 300 index accounts for only 45.75% of the total A-share market capitalization, a notable decrease from previous levels [3][5]. - The distribution of free float market capitalization among major indices is as follows: CSI 300 at 19.82 trillion, CSI 500 at 7.22 trillion, CSI 1000 at 6.77 trillion, CSI 2000 at 5.94 trillion, and the remaining micro-cap stocks at 3.57 trillion [5]. Historical Context and Volatility - The article references significant drops in the CSI 2000 index, including a 12.83% decline in a single day in April and a cumulative drop of 35.86% over 54 trading days from late 2023 to early 2024 [10][11]. - The author suggests that a rapid decline in micro-cap stocks relative to the CSI 300 could occur again, drawing parallels to past market behaviors [13][14]. Investment Strategy and Risk Management - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio that includes both dividend stocks and micro-cap stocks, suggesting that investors should be prepared for potential downturns in micro-cap stocks [19][20]. - It highlights two specific micro-cap funds, the Guotai Junan CSI 1000 Index Fund and the Nuon Multi-Strategy Fund, showcasing their performance and the potential for significant returns following market corrections [22][25]. - The article advocates for a strategic approach to investing in micro-cap stocks, suggesting that while volatility and drawdowns are expected, they can lead to substantial long-term gains if managed correctly [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation suggests a potential bull market, but many investors may not be adequately prepared for it [2][8]. Group 1: Historical Experiences - In the 2014-2015 bull market, the company engaged in numerous trades but struggled to keep up with the market, resulting in minimal gains [4][5]. - During the 2019-2020 bull market, the company focused on broad index products, achieving annual returns of over 30%, which were considered relatively low at the time [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of responding to market conditions rather than attempting to predict them, suggesting that most investors should adopt a more reactive approach [9][10]. - Two key strategies for responding to a bull market include: 1. Investing a significant portion of funds in equity markets when market positions are not high, and being willing to increase investments during market pullbacks [11]. 2. Accepting average market returns rather than seeking quick profits, which may involve diversifying investments across broad indices to mitigate risks [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market index levels may not accurately reflect the underlying sector performances, as value stocks have contributed significantly to index gains, while other sectors may still have room for growth [11]. - The company suggests that the best approach for ordinary investors is to increase equity allocations during market lows and focus on responding to market changes rather than making predictions [16].