以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 莱言维语 来源：雪球 2025年的前四个月 ， 全球市场仿佛坐上了一辆失控的过山车 —— 预期之内的波动常有 ， 预期之外的 " 惊喜 " 不断 。 美股去年还是 " YYDS " ， 今年却一波下跌带崩情绪 ， 反手又把黄金推上历史新高 ； 当所有人以为牛市终结时 ， 它又悄然反弹 （ 截至5月12日 ， 标普500年内-0.64% ， 纳指100-0.69% ） ； 消息面更是 " 左右横跳 " ： 利空与利多齐飞 ， 高开低走与低开高走互演 …… 这种行情下 ， 追涨杀跌者疲于奔命 ， 而资产配置者却稳如磐石 —— 通过分散持仓 ， 总能抓住此起彼伏 的机会 。 但资产配置并非一劳永逸 ， 随着市场波动 ， 组合会逐渐偏离初始比例 ， 动态再平衡正是解决这一问题的 关键 。 动态再平衡的好处这里不展开聊 ， 网上有无数的科普文章 ， 一句话概括动态再平衡的核心目的 ： 通过主 动调整资产配置比例的方式 ， 在市场波动中控制组合 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing down 1.91%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. Over 3,800 stocks declined across the market, with total trading volume at 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 164.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Gold Price Decline - Gold prices continued to fall from historical highs, with the Shanghai gold futures contract dropping nearly 4% in intraday trading. The price fell from around $3,200 per ounce to $3,149 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% from the April peak of $3,500 per ounce [3]. - Gold ETFs tracking gold prices also experienced significant declines [4]. - The A-share precious metals sector weakened due to falling gold prices, with companies like Huayu Mining, Zijin Mining, Sichuan Gold, Hunan Silver, and others seeing their stock prices drop [7]. Military Industry Activity - The military sector showed repeated activity, with Chengfei Integration hitting its seventh consecutive daily limit up. Other companies like Wand Holdings and Suzhou Longjie also saw significant gains [16][17]. Shipping Sector Surge - The shipping sector became a market highlight, with stocks like Nanjing Port, Jinjiang Shipping, and Ningbo Ocean all hitting their daily limit up. The European shipping futures contract surged, with a maximum increase of over 50% since May 9 [23][28]. - A report indicated that container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly 300% following tariff reductions, with average bookings rising from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers [28].

Investment Philosophy Evolution and Core Insights - The transition from "cigar butt" strategy to focusing on "quality companies" reflects a self-renewal of value investment theory and adaptation to market conditions and capital scale changes [2][3] - Early "cigar butt" strategy emphasized safety margin and liquidation logic, with investments based on market price being lower than liquidation value, but these companies often lacked growth potential [3][4] - The mid-term shift to "quality companies" highlighted the importance of economic moats and pricing power, exemplified by the acquisition of See's Candies, which contributed over $1.3 billion in profits [5][6] - The later phase of large-scale investment utilized low-cost long-term funds to build investment leverage, with Berkshire's cash reserves reaching $334.2 billion in 2024 [7][8] Core Insights and Investment Implications - The evolution of investment philosophy from "price" to "quality" emphasizes that intrinsic value, such as brand and management, is more decisive than short-term financial data [9] - Risk control involves a dynamic balance of leverage and scale, with a shift away from leveraged investments as capital scales increased [10] - A long-term perspective is crucial, as demonstrated by Buffett's holdings in Coca-Cola and Apple, which underline the importance of holding quality assets for compounding returns [11] Applicable Methods and Cases for A-shares - Core methodology includes selecting companies with economic moats, such as brand premium exemplified by Kweichow Moutai with a gross margin of 91.5% and ROE of 33% [12][17] - Dynamic assessment of safety margins involves evaluating low valuations with high growth potential, as seen in Hengrui Medicine, which has a dynamic PE of approximately 44 times [14] - Long-term holding and contrarian positioning are illustrated by Wuliangye, currently valued at a dynamic PE of about 8.7 times, with strong brand resilience and expected profit growth [15][16] Practical Cases - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates brand monopoly and cash flow strength, with projected revenue of 170.9 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [17][18] - Contemporary leaders in the new energy sector, such as CATL, hold a global market share of 37% in power batteries, with production capacity planned to reach 670 GWh in 2024 [19][20] - Longi Green Energy, a leader in photovoltaic technology, is expected to benefit from efficiency breakthroughs in HJT battery production [20] Conclusion - The evolution of Buffett's investment approach signifies a shift from "valuation arbitrage" to "value creation," emphasizing the focus on economic moats and dynamic valuation assessments [21] - The insights gained can guide A-share investors to select targets in consumption, healthcare, and new energy sectors, aiming for "reasonable price entry and long-term holding" to achieve compounding growth [21]

今日行情由大金融板块主导，早盘银行率先发力，而且在上午突破了10万亿市值的大关；午后则由保险，券商接力，继续助力指数冲高；截止收盘 沪指重回3400点。 沪深两市全天成交额1.32万亿，较上个交易日放量252亿。截至收盘，沪指涨0.86%，深成指涨0.64%，创业板指涨1.01%。盘面上，市场热点较 为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超2800只个股下跌。 板块方面，保险、港口、物流、化工等板块涨幅居前，光伏、贵金属、军工电子、轨交设备等板块跌幅居前。 01 大金融板块接力狂飙 上午银行，下午保险，券商 早盘大金融板块迎来强势上涨，银行板块领涨，盘中农业银行，交通银行等股价都再创新高。午后非银金融接力上涨，保险板块大涨6.92%，其中 中国人保涨停炸板再涨停，中国太保涨8.5%，中国平安涨4.25%。 | V | 保险 | | ··· Q. | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2403.67 (+155.48 +6.92%) | | | | 讨论 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(6) 连板 | 关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流向 | | 名称 | 最新价 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 幸运Huang 来源：雪球 一 、 财报基础运营数据 | 人民币(百万元) | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 03 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 01 | 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 | | 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变业收入 | 47,367 | 44,518 | 42.740 | 40,828 | 48,280 | 52,944 | 73,513 | 59.122 | 57,960 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 7,127 | 9,433 | 5.510 | 1.789 | 6.755 | 10.115 | 21.254 | 10.976 | 11,695 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益后的净利润 | 7.093 | 9,425 | 5,465 | 1.770 | 6,724 | 10.096 | 21,239 | 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a scoring system for the Dividend Low Volatility Index, which ranges from 0 to 10, where lower scores indicate undervaluation and higher scores indicate overvaluation [2][3]. Scoring System Summary - A score of 3 or below indicates undervaluation, representing a rare buying opportunity when prices fall below their intrinsic value [2][4]. - A score between 3 and 7 is considered a reasonable valuation, where prices align with their intrinsic value, allowing for fluctuations within this range [2][3]. - A score above 7 indicates overvaluation, suggesting that prices exceed their reasonable value, but this does not guarantee an immediate price drop [3][6]. Investment Strategy - When the score is below 3, the recommendation is to invest fully, as such opportunities are infrequent, typically occurring 1-2 times a year over the past 20 years [4]. - For scores between 3 and 7, a monthly dollar-cost averaging strategy is suggested, where investments are divided into portions and invested monthly [4][5]. - If the score exceeds 7, it is advised to stop investing and consider holding the investment long-term, with selling only considered when the score exceeds 9 [6]. Additional Considerations - Concerns about investing during prolonged periods of high scores (6-7) can be mitigated by adjusting the investment strategy to lower score thresholds or increasing the number of investment portions [5][6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility in investment decisions, allowing for individual adaptations of the proposed scoring system [6]. Fund Allocation Concept - The article briefly mentions the Snowball Three-Point Method, which focuses on long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified investment returns and risk mitigation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in small-cap biotech companies with market capitalizations below 3 billion, suggesting that a market recovery could lead to significant stock price increases for these companies [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Many biotech stocks with market caps below 3 billion have experienced significant price increases since early 2025, indicating a trend of recovery from previous low valuations [2][5]. - The article highlights that the majority of small-cap biotech companies have cash reserves below the 600 million safety line, making it difficult for them to transition from negative to positive cash flow [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - **Yiming Oncology (宜明昂科)**: Focused on CD47, currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. The company has 700 million in cash, sufficient for about two years of R&D [6]. - **Zhuanxin Biotech (荃信生物)**: Engaged in autoimmune therapies, currently has negligible cash reserves but aims to survive through business development (BD) models [8]. - **Jiahua Biotech (嘉和生物)**: Recently merged with Yiteng, has 1.1 billion in cash, positioning it to potentially return to the mid-cap biotech sector [10]. - **Tengsheng Biopharma (腾盛博药)**: Focused on hepatitis treatments, has 2.4 billion in net cash, but is reducing expenses and focusing on clinical trials [11]. - **Sanyecao Biotech (三叶草生物)**: Previously a star in the COVID vaccine space, now facing financial difficulties with only 500 million in cash [13]. - **Zhaoke Ophthalmology (兆科眼科)**: Has 1.3 billion in cash, focusing on eye care products, with a relatively low annual R&D expenditure [14]. - **Deqi Pharmaceuticals (德琪医药)**: Has seen a significant decrease in cash reserves from 3 billion to 700 million, indicating a need for better cash management [16]. - **Hualing Pharmaceuticals (华领医药)**: A stable company with 900 million in cash, focusing on diabetes treatments and low R&D spending [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation and growth potential of Bull Group, emphasizing the importance of long-term return on equity (ROE) and the company's ability to maintain high profitability despite current growth rates showing a decline [2][6]. Group 1: Valuation Insights - The current PE ratio of Bull Group is 21, which may require downward adjustment due to declining growth rates, with projected revenue growth of 7.24% and net profit growth of 1.04% for 2024 [2]. - The author suggests that the valuation tolerance for Bull Group could be raised to around 20 times PE, given its average ROE of over 25% [6]. - Historical data shows that Bull Group has maintained a high ROE of 28.17% since its listing, indicating strong financial health and competitive positioning [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Bull Group is characterized as a cash cow with low debt and capital expenditure, possessing strong brand influence and channel control, with no significant competitors in its space [5]. - The company's high net profit margins are attributed to effective cost control rather than high gross margins, which hover around 40% [6]. - The article draws parallels between Bull Group and Midea, highlighting that both companies achieve substantial profits through rigorous expense management rather than exorbitant product pricing [6]. Group 3: Market Timing and Investment Strategy - The lowest valuation for Bull Group during the recent bear market was 18.67 times PE, presenting a potential buying opportunity [7]. - The article emphasizes that timing the market to buy at the lowest point is often more about luck than skill, suggesting that investors may need to accept higher prices in practice [7]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The article references the three thresholds for valuation as proposed by Graham, indicating that companies with strong competitive advantages can justify higher PE ratios [3][4]. - The long-term return on equity is a critical factor in determining the potential returns from holding a stock, as noted by Charlie Munger [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.13% [1] - The total market turnover was 13,260 billion, a decrease of 149 billion from the previous day [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The port shipping, photovoltaic equipment, banking, medical services, and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, while military, humanoid robots, intelligent transportation, and copper cable high-speed connection sectors experienced declines [2] Group 3: U.S. Market Reaction - U.S. stock markets surged after the China-U.S. tariff meeting, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%, Dow Jones up 2.81%, and Nasdaq up 4.35% [3] - Year-to-date declines for the Dow and S&P have narrowed to 0.32% and 0.64%, respectively, while the Nasdaq's cumulative decline is 3.12%, but it has rebounded over 20% from last month's low [4] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, with potential for further reductions depending on negotiations [8] - Future negotiations will focus on trade and market access, particularly the 24% tariffs and the 20% tariff on fentanyl [9] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Impact - Trump's recent executive order on drug pricing caused volatility in pharmaceutical stocks, with companies like BeiGene experiencing a drop of over 9% followed by a rebound of over 5% [11] - The executive order aims to link U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices in developed countries, potentially reducing prices by 30%-80% [15] Group 6: Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The photovoltaic sector showed strong performance, particularly in the silicon material segment, with companies like Euro Crystal Technology and GCL-Poly Energy reaching their daily price limits [17] - There are rumors of major silicon material manufacturers planning to acquire remaining production capacity and propose production cuts to stabilize prices [19] - Analysts remain optimistic about the growth of photovoltaic demand in the U.S. and globally, with expectations for supply-side reforms in the industry [20]

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 基金一季报披露完毕后，前几篇文章梳理了今年以来最受欢迎的主动偏股基金、股票指数基金和多种纯债基 金，今天来聊聊黄金基金以及受关注度并不那么高的其他商品基金。 2021年1月2日至今年5月7日，偏股混合型基金指数累计回报为-19.00%，但黄金ETF、原油LOF和豆粕 ETF的同期回报却分别高达97.76%、88.97%和59.70%。 （数据来源：Choice） 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创 业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢 向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 如果2021年以来配置了一部分黄金基金和其他商品基金，这几年的投资体验一定好得太多。 这么说并 不是想引导大家现在去高位追涨黄金等商品资产 ， 而是要懂得利用商品与权益的低相关性甚至负 相关性 ， 重视商品资产在资产配置中不可或缺的重要作用 ...