Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in its 2025 annual performance, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65 to 1.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.2% to 60.5% [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.65 to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 47.2% to 60.5% year-on-year. The expected non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.6 to 1.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.0% to 59.7% [2]. - For Q4 2025, the company estimates a net profit of approximately 150 million yuan, which is a decline of 33.6% year-on-year and 70.6% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same quarter is also expected to be around 150 million yuan, down 42.3% year-on-year and 70.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Group 2: Employee Stock Ownership Plan - In December 2025, the company announced an employee stock ownership plan with a scale not exceeding 400 million yuan, which corresponds to approximately 2.594 million shares, accounting for 1.3% of the total share capital. The performance assessment conditions for 2026 to 2028 are set to achieve revenue growth targets for self-owned brands [4]. Group 3: Motorcycle Sales Growth - The company projects sales of large-displacement motorcycles to reach 108,000 units in 2024 and 141,000 units in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.1% and 31.2%, respectively. Export sales are expected to be 51,000 units in 2024 and 90,000 units in 2025, with growth rates of 24.8% and 76.9% [5]. - The company's brand, Wujin, has made significant inroads in the European market, with sales in Spain reaching 15,000 units from January to November 2025, marking an increase of 80.7% year-on-year. In Italy, sales for the same period grew by 96.5% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 20.158 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 19.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.767 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 57.6% [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times based on the closing price on January 16, 2026 [6][7].

Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market this week, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 0.5%, ranking 12th among Shenwan sub-industries, compared to the CSI 300 which fell by 0.9% [3] - Within the sub-sectors, automotive services and automotive parts increased by 4.5% and 1.8% respectively, while commercial passenger vehicles, commercial freight vehicles, motorcycles, and passenger cars saw declines of -1.1%, -1.3%, -1.7%, and -1.9% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The core investment recommendations for this month include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring Co., and Chunjun Power [4] 2025Q4 Outlook - Total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles are expected to be 8.748 million units in 2025Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.8% [5] - In the new energy sector, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles are projected to reach 4.46 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.9% [5] - Price competition is expected to ease, with discounts stabilizing and profitability improving [5] - Companies expected to perform well year-on-year in 2025Q4 include Seres, Xiaomi Motors, NIO, Leap Motor, and Geely [5] Components Sector - Revenue in the components sector is expected to be driven by strong performances from Xiaomi, Geely, and BYD, while costs are anticipated to decrease due to lower raw material prices and shipping costs [36] - The average global shipping cost in 2025Q4 is projected to be $3,484, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [38] - The performance of the components sector is expected to diverge significantly based on customer structure, with companies like Top Group and Hu Guang expected to perform well [41] Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck sector is expected to see continued recovery in demand, with wholesale sales projected at 231,000 units in 2025Q4, a year-on-year increase of 34.7% [42] - The market competition is expected to remain stable, with companies like FAW Group and Beiqi Foton gaining market share [43] Motorcycles - The wholesale sales of large-displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) are expected to be 191,000 units in 2025Q4, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.3% [60] - Domestic sales are projected to be 69,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [60] - Export sales are expected to reach 122,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [60] Policy Impact - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy is expected to stimulate demand, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles remaining in place [33][64] - The new subsidy policy for 2026 will shift to a percentage of the vehicle price, which is expected to improve the structure of subsidized models [65][70]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive parts industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by the acceleration of smart and global trends, with humanoid robots entering a phase of mass production by 2026 [2][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, domestic wholesale vehicle sales reached 21.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, leading to an 8.3% increase in automotive parts revenue [2][20]. - For 2026, the wholesale vehicle sales are projected to reach 30.3 million units, a 1.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the continuation of vehicle replacement policies [2][46]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from the increasing share of domestic brands and the pressure of annual declines on profit margins, which decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][43]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of high-quality customers, with domestic brands being prioritized over new forces and joint ventures [3][9]. - The focus is on high-growth clients such as Geely and BYD in the domestic market, and the expansion of overseas production capacity is expected to enhance revenue and profit [3][8]. - The global expansion of Chinese automotive parts is anticipated to continue, particularly in North America and Europe, driven by the increasing electrification rate [3][9]. Group 3: Product Dimensions - The smart driving sector is expected to see accelerated growth, with a projected increase in penetration rates as advanced driving technologies become more accessible to the mass market [4][39]. - Humanoid robots are entering a mass production phase in 2026, with significant advancements in AI and robotics technology expected to drive long-term growth [4][54]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in high-performance driving chips and smart cockpit controllers, which are expected to experience substantial growth [4][53]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The automotive parts sector's revenue growth is closely tied to passenger vehicle sales, with a noted increase in average selling prices (ASP) [15][20]. - The gross profit margin for the automotive parts sector was 19.4% in 2025, reflecting a slight decline due to increased pressure from OEMs [26][33]. - The net profit growth for the automotive parts sector was only 4.2% year-on-year, indicating that profit growth is lagging behind revenue growth due to pressures from OEMs [33][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive parts industry is expected to see a shift towards smart and electric components, with a focus on intelligent driving and humanoid robots as key growth areas [2][53]. - The five-force model indicates that the industry will favor smart electric components over traditional parts, with significant growth potential in humanoid robots and low-altitude applications [53][54]. - The overall industry space is defined by the value per vehicle, vehicle sales, and product penetration rates, with a strong emphasis on high-quality customers and favorable market conditions [54].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the demand for automobiles is driven by the continuation of the trade-in policy, leading to an unexpected penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and improved profitability through high-end products and overseas expansion [3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 2 - In 2025, the cumulative wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 24.119 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with NEVs growing by 30.7% [3][8] - The penetration rate of NEVs in wholesale sales was 50.4%, up by 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the penetration rate for insurance reached 53.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points [3][46] - The share of domestic passenger cars in wholesale sales reached 69.3%, a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percentage points, with brands like Geely, Xiaomi, and Leap Motor showing significant growth [3][50] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the trade-in policy is expected to continue, supporting demand, with projected insurance sales of 22.32 million units, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 30.10 million units, an increase of 1.0% [4][5] - The NEV insurance sales are expected to reach 13.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while wholesale sales are projected to be 17.3 million units, up by 13.4% [4][15] Group 4 - The competitive landscape is shifting, with joint ventures declining and domestic brands accelerating their rise in the mid-to-high-end market [5][10] - In the 5-15 million price range, price-sensitive consumers are expected to drive competition, while brands like Geely, BYD, and Leap Motor are anticipated to gain higher sales growth due to their advantages in intelligence and cost-effectiveness [5][10] Group 5 - The article highlights the acceleration of intelligent driving technology, with major players like Huawei and BYD pushing for the democratization of advanced driving features [6][10] - The L3 commercial deployment is expected to gain momentum in 2026-2027, with various automakers launching new high-level driving systems and models [6][10] Group 6 - The export of passenger cars is projected to reach 6.64 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, driven by the technological advantages of domestic NEVs and the expansion of overseas manufacturing [7][11] - Companies like BYD and Geely are expected to increase their export efforts, with BYD establishing overseas factories and Geely accelerating NEV exports [7][11]

Market Performance - The automotive sector in A-shares rose by 2.7% from January 5 to January 11, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 0.2% [3] - Sub-sectors such as automotive services, auto parts, motorcycles and others, commercial vehicles, and passenger cars saw increases of 5.3%, 3.8%, 2.4%, 1.4%, and 0.6% respectively, while commercial passenger vehicles decreased by 0.3% [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended core stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chunfeng Power [4] - For passenger vehicles, Geely, Xpeng, and BYD are recommended, with Jianghuai Automobile suggested for attention [7] - In the auto parts sector, recommendations include Berteli and Horizon Robotics for intelligent driving, and Jifeng Co. for intelligent cockpits [7] - For the motorcycle segment, Chunfeng Power and Longxin General are recommended as leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market [8] - In the tire industry, Sailer Tire and Senqilin are recommended [9] - For commercial vehicles, Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck are recommended for heavy trucks, while Yutong Bus is suggested for passenger vehicles [10] Robotics Sector - The Chinese robotics exhibition at CES 2026 showcased over 30 companies, indicating a strong presence in the humanoid robotics sector [5] - The focus is on Tesla's production progress and technological iterations, with domestic robot manufacturers like Yushu Technology expected to enter the IPO phase soon, serving as catalysts for the sector [5] - Recommended stocks in the robotics sector include Top Group, Berteli, Yinlun Co., and Junsheng Electronics, among others [7][35] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed as a core strategic area with significant long-term growth potential, currently transitioning from technology validation to large-scale commercial application [6] - The industry is supported by strong policy backing and increasing demand from national satellite internet projects, which may drive private rocket launch frequency and success rates [6] - Companies like Haoneng Co., Longsheng Technology, and Xusheng Group are highlighted as key players in this sector [6][12] Policy Impact on Automotive Sector - The new national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to stimulate demand by providing vehicle replacement subsidies based on vehicle price, with electric vehicles receiving 12% of the price (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [22][23] - The transition from fixed subsidies to percentage-based subsidies is expected to improve the structure of subsidized vehicles and activate demand for mid-to-high-end models [28][29] - The overall automotive market is anticipated to benefit from these policies, with a focus on intelligent and globalized growth among quality domestic brands [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deep research and analysis in the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the trends of electrification, intelligence, globalization, and premiumization, which are seen as key investment opportunities during the ongoing transformation of the sector [9]. Recruitment Information - The company is seeking analysts for the automotive and embodied intelligence sectors, highlighting the need for candidates who are passionate about sell-side research and eager to witness the transformative decade in electric and intelligent vehicles [11]. - Requirements for the analyst positions include a master's degree or higher, 1-3 years of relevant research experience, and strong communication skills, with a preference for candidates with backgrounds in electric intelligence or embodied intelligence [11]. - Intern positions are also available, targeting candidates from top universities with a strong interest in sell-side research and the ability to handle high-intensity research work [11]. Growth Opportunities - Joining the company offers the chance to work alongside talented individuals in the automotive industry, providing opportunities for rapid personal and professional growth [12]. - The company promises a structured research investment framework and valuable work experience, along with opportunities for in-depth communication with industry experts [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strong growth momentum of the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market in China, driven by both domestic sales and exports, with a notable shift towards high-end models and international expansion by domestic manufacturers [1][4][10] Group 2 Review of 2025 - Domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles reached 374,000 units in the first ten months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a penetration rate of 11.1%, marking a historical high [1][17] - Exports of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles surged to 449,000 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 59.1%, indicating a rapid acceleration in overseas market penetration [1][53] - The structure of motorcycle displacement is continuously upgrading, with 450cc models accounting for approximately 34% of sales, and the emergence of 800cc models marking a new phase for domestic brands [1][12] Outlook for 2026 - Domestic sales are projected to grow to 432,000 and 477,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with penetration rates expected to reach 10.5% and 12.0% [2][12] - Export volumes are anticipated to maintain high growth, with expected sales of 540,000 and 718,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 58.4% and 33.0% [2][12] - The market structure is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on high-end models, as domestic manufacturers enhance their product offerings and market strategies [3][10] Group 3 Investment Recommendations - The mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market is expected to maintain high growth momentum, with domestic and export sales projected at 477,000 and 718,000 units, respectively, in 2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 10.5% and 33.0% [4][10] - The proportion of 500-800cc models in domestic and export sales is expected to rise to 25% and 20%, respectively, indicating a shift towards higher displacement motorcycles [4][10] - Key companies recommended for investment include Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market trends [4][10] Group 4 Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly diversified, with the top three domestic manufacturers—Chuanfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General—holding a combined market share of approximately 53.6% in domestic sales [1][44] - The export market is characterized by a more fragmented competition, with Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle capturing 42.6% of the market share, indicating a growing presence of various players [2][82] - The North American and European markets are emerging as key growth areas for exports, with Europe remaining the largest market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles [2][86]

Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market this week, with a 1.9% increase, ranking 4th among Shenwan sub-industries, surpassing the CSI 300 by 1.8 percentage points [1] - Within the sub-sectors, automotive parts, commercial passenger vehicles, motorcycles and others, and commercial freight vehicles rose by 3.8%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively, while passenger vehicles and automotive services fell by 1.3% and 2.3% [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended core stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chunfeng Power [2][11] - For passenger vehicles, recommended stocks are Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, and BYD, with a focus on Jianghuai Automobile [5] - In the parts sector, recommendations include intelligent driving companies like Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Kobot, as well as new force industry chains such as H chain (Xingyu Co., Hu Guang Co.) and T chain (Top Group, New Spring Co., Shuanghuan Transmission) [5][24] Robotics Sector - Huawei increased its investment in humanoid robots, with Dongguan Jimu Robotics Co., Ltd. raising its registered capital from 3.89 billion to 4.69 billion yuan, focusing on key technologies like machine vision and natural language processing [3][11] - The production progress and technological iteration of Tesla remain core themes, with domestic robot manufacturers like Yushut Technology expected to enter the IPO stage soon, potentially catalyzing the sector [3][11] Policy Impact on Demand - The new national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to stimulate domestic demand, transitioning from a fixed subsidy model to a flexible mechanism based on vehicle price [4][12] - The policy is expected to improve the structure of subsidized models, activating demand for mid-to-high-end vehicle replacements and reducing low-level price competition [4][18] Sales Performance - In December, BYD, Geely, and Changan ranked as the top three automakers by sales, with respective sales of 420,398, 255,000, and 236,817 units, showing a year-on-year change of -18.3%, +1.6%, and +12.7% [4][19] - New energy vehicle sales are projected to benefit from the new subsidy policy, with a focus on the sales targets set by Geely, Zero Run, and Xiaomi for 2026 [19][20] Motorcycle Market - The large-displacement motorcycle market is expanding rapidly, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 61,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [31] - Recommended companies in this sector include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General, which are leading in the large-displacement motorcycle market [31][33] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck market saw a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46% in November, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy that supports the replacement of older diesel trucks [34][36] - Recommended companies in this sector include Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [36] Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing a strong demand with high operating rates, particularly in the PCR segment, which stood at 72.05% [38] - Recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing globalization and demand recovery [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a positive outlook on the automotive industry, highlighting the transformative era characterized by "independent rise, order reshaping, and embodied intelligence" [6]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is entering a golden decade, with significant changes driven by high-end products from independent brands, reshaping the global automotive value chain [6]. - The penetration of intelligent driving is accelerating due to iterative model algorithms and optimized computing costs [6]. - The emergence of humanoid robots is creating new commercial value in manufacturing and home service scenarios [6]. Group 2: Research and Recognition - The company has received multiple accolades for its research in the automotive sector, including rankings in various prestigious awards such as the Securities Times and Wind [6]. - The focus on forward-looking research has expanded to include areas like humanoid robots, overseas components, and intelligent driving [6]. Group 3: Commitment to Growth - The company aims to be a long-term partner with the capital market and the automotive industry, emphasizing collaboration and mutual growth [6]. - The team expresses gratitude for the support received and invites like-minded individuals from the capital market to join in seizing investment opportunities arising from industry changes [8].

Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 2.8% from December 22 to December 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.2% [2] - Within the sector, automotive parts, passenger cars, commercial cargo vehicles, and automotive services saw increases of 4.0%, 2.3%, 0.9%, and 0.3% respectively, while motorcycles and commercial passenger vehicles declined by 1.3% and 2.1% [2] Investment Recommendations - The core investment focus for the month includes companies such as Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Bertley, Top Group, New Spring, Hu Guang, and Chunfeng Power [3][10] - In the passenger car segment, there is optimism for quality domestic brands accelerating in smart technology and globalization, recommending Geely, Xpeng, BYD, and Xiaomi [12] - For automotive parts, recommendations include smart driving companies like Bertley and Horizon Robotics, as well as companies in the new forces supply chain such as Xingyu and Hu Guang [15] Robotics and Automation - Zhiyuan Robotics is expected to achieve annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a projected shipment of 5,000 robots by 2025 [4] - The first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles has been approved for large-scale operation in Chongqing, which is anticipated to drive technological optimization and the practical application of autonomous driving technology [5][11] - The focus on the robotics sector is heightened with the upcoming IPOs of domestic robotics manufacturers, which are expected to catalyze the industry [4][16] Heavy Trucks and Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in November 2025 reaching approximately 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 46% [26] - The expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is expected to stimulate demand for new purchases, with average subsidies of 80,000 yuan for scrapping and replacing eligible trucks [26][27] Tire Industry - The tire industry is witnessing a strong performance with high operating rates, particularly in the PCR segment, which stood at 72.05% as of December 26, 2025 [30][48] - Recommendations for tire companies include Sailun and Senqilin, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing globalization and demand recovery [28][30]