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外贸订单里,“人民币结算”正升温
经济观察报· 2025-10-17 03:22
Core Viewpoint - The reliance of emerging market countries on the US dollar in international transactions is decreasing due to geopolitical changes, rising tariff barriers, and fluctuations in the US interest rate cycle, leading to an increase in the use of the Renminbi (RMB) in cross-border transactions [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has seen an increase in the use of RMB as a trade settlement currency among exporters [2]. - Reports from institutions like China Construction Bank and CICC indicate significant growth in the use of RMB for cross-border trade settlement and financing from 2024 to 2025 [2]. - The RMB's acceptance as a trade settlement currency is particularly notable in "Global South" economies, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia [3]. Group 2: Company Experiences - Suzhou Grun德 Electric Co., Ltd. has seen an increase in RMB trade settlements initiated by European clients, with RMB transactions now accounting for a growing portion of their business [6]. - Similar trends are observed at CaiXun Industrial (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., where the proportion of RMB settlements has risen from 0% to approximately 40% for Russian clients [7]. - Jiangsu Jinpeng Group has reported a significant increase in African clients opting for RMB settlements, with the number of such clients doubling from last year [7]. Group 3: Cross-Border RMB Settlement Data - In June, the Bank of China reported that the cross-border RMB settlement volume exceeded 43 trillion yuan, a 31% year-on-year increase, while the cross-border RMB clearing volume reached 131.4 trillion yuan, up 49% [8]. - The CICC report highlighted the weakening credibility of the US dollar due to its misuse and the imposition of tariffs, suggesting a shift towards a more fragmented and diversified global monetary system [8]. Group 4: Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive trends, companies face challenges in using RMB for international transactions, including low liquidity and high financial costs associated with offshore RMB [11]. - A survey indicated that 60% of companies cited low liquidity and high costs as major barriers to using RMB, while 50% reported that counterparties were unwilling to use RMB [11]. - Optimism remains, with 57% of domestic companies and 69% of foreign companies expecting to increase their use of RMB in cross-border trade settlements by 2025 [12].
国际锌价高歌猛进 国内锌厂热火朝天
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 12:36
Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is facing downward price pressure across the entire supply chain, from mining to smelting, leading to compressed profit margins. This unusual "internal weakness and external strength" market structure is reshaping global zinc trade flows and presenting unprecedented challenges to the domestic zinc industry [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly up from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance with increased supply and weak consumption [2]. - Since August, a rare divergence in domestic and international zinc markets has emerged, characterized by a strong rise in LME zinc prices from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices have fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton, showing weakness [2][6]. - The extreme price disparity has caused the Shanghai-LME ratio to drop to 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [2][7]. Processing Fees and Market Behavior - There is a notable divergence in processing fees, with imported zinc concentrate processing fees rising while domestic processing fees are declining. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [8][9]. - The decline in domestic processing fees is attributed to the worsening Shanghai-LME ratio, leading domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic ore, tightening its supply and allowing suppliers to increase prices [10]. Production and Consumption Trends - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year, with expectations of slight improvement in September as production normalizes post-summer [12]. - Domestic refined zinc production reached a record high of 620,000 tons in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][15]. - Zinc consumption remains weak, with actual consumption in August at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [18]. Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - Macro-economic data supports the view of weak zinc consumption, with significant declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which are closely linked to zinc demand [19]. - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased significantly, reaching 160,000 tons by September 20, with projections suggesting it could rise to around 250,000 tons by year-end [20]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, which may prevent significant price drops in the near term [21]. Future Market Predictions - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply and weak consumption, yet the market has not shown a significant downward trend due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [23][24]. - Short-term predictions indicate that while global economic conditions may support metal prices, domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases in the domestic market [25].
黄金飙涨,年轻人卖掉结婚“五金”
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 12:36
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a shift in the perception of gold among younger investors, who now view it as a flexible asset reserve rather than a static investment, allowing for buying during price dips and selling during peaks [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Behavior - Young investors are breaking traditional views of gold investment, treating it as a flexible asset that can be bought and sold based on market conditions [2][4]. - Zhao Yuan, a 95-born investor, sold her wedding gold bars for a profit of 184,000 yuan after the gold price surged, demonstrating the practicality of this new investment approach [3][7]. - The article illustrates how different individuals, like Zhao Yuan and Zhang, have adapted their investment strategies to capitalize on rising gold prices, moving away from traditional gold jewelry purchases [6][9]. Group 2: Price Trends - The international gold price exceeded $4,000 per ounce, while domestic futures prices reached over 900 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in gold value [3][7]. - The price of gold jewelry in China has also risen, with prices around 1,200 yuan per gram, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the gold market [3][7]. - The article notes that gold prices have been influenced by various factors, including international geopolitical events and monetary policy changes, leading to fluctuations in the market [20]. Group 3: Personal Experiences - Zhao Yuan's decision to invest in gold bars instead of traditional jewelry was driven by concerns over high processing fees and the potential for better liquidity [6][7]. - Zhang's experience with gold jewelry turned from a sentimental investment to a practical decision to sell after a breakup, highlighting the emotional and financial aspects of gold investment [10][12]. - The article discusses the experiences of other investors, like Hou, who are contemplating selling their gold due to rising prices, showcasing a common trend among younger investors [15][17]. Group 4: Market Risks - The article mentions the volatility in gold prices and the risks associated with short-term trading, as illustrated by Zhao Yuan's experience with speculative trading leading to significant losses [19][20]. - Financial institutions are advising investors to be cautious and manage their positions wisely in light of the fluctuating gold market [20].
徐翔母亲“清空”大恒科技,多宗资产仍在处置中
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the asset disposal related to Xu Xiang's case, particularly focusing on the auction and transfer of shares in Daheng Technology, which has implications for Xu's divorce proceedings and the ongoing asset liquidation process [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Disposal and Company Changes - Daheng New Era Technology Co., Ltd. announced a change in its actual controller from Zheng Suzhen to no actual controller [2]. - Zheng Suzhen, Xu Xiang's mother, sold her shares in Daheng Technology for 1.712 billion yuan, yielding a profit of 510 million yuan compared to her original purchase price [6][10]. - The shares sold were part of a judicial auction ordered by the Qingdao Intermediate People's Court, which had previously frozen Zheng's shares due to Xu's legal issues [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Historical Context - Daheng Technology's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 844 million yuan, with a net loss of 2.7405 million yuan, indicating a significant decline compared to the company's performance when Zheng took control [9]. - In 2015, Daheng Technology's revenue was 2.682 billion yuan, showcasing a stark contrast to its current financial state [7]. Group 3: Ongoing Legal and Financial Issues - Multiple asset disposals related to Xu Xiang's case are still ongoing, including shares in Wenfeng Co., Ningbo Zhongbai, and Huayi Family, with various stages of judicial proceedings [11][13][14]. - The divorce proceedings between Xu Xiang and Ying Ying are complicated by the ongoing asset liquidation, with the court previously denying Ying's request for divorce due to insufficient evidence of a breakdown in their relationship [12].
“中华葫芦第一村”是如何炼成的
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Luozhuang Village into a leading hub for gourd production in China, driven by the return of young people and the development of a robust gourd industry that now accounts for over 70% of the national market share in gourds [1][4]. Group 1: Gourd Industry Development - Luozhuang Village, known as "China's Gourd Capital," has seen significant infrastructure improvements, with many new two-story buildings and shops dedicated to gourd-related businesses [3][4]. - The village's gourd production has a rich history, dating back to the Han Dynasty for cultivation and the Song Dynasty for processing techniques, with the gourd carving recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage [4][10]. - The annual Gourd Cultural and Arts Festival attracts thousands of buyers, with last year's event generating a transaction volume of 290 million yuan over four days [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Gourd cultivation is highly profitable, with farmers earning at least 20,000 yuan per mu, compared to only a few thousand yuan for other crops like garlic [5][11]. - The gourd industry in Tangyi Town, where Luozhuang is located, generates an annual comprehensive economic benefit of 1.8 billion yuan [41]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Trends - The introduction of new gourd varieties, such as the "Tianjin Mouth" gourd, has led to a significant increase in the number of gourd types available, enhancing market competitiveness [18][20]. - The village has embraced modern marketing strategies, with over 400 online stores and a shift towards live-streaming sales on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, moving away from traditional e-commerce [33][34]. Group 4: Cultural and Creative Products - There is a growing trend of creating innovative gourd products aimed at younger consumers, including unique designs and creative items that appeal to modern tastes [27][28]. - The integration of traditional craftsmanship with contemporary design has attracted a diverse customer base, including those interested in both traditional and modern gourd art [42].
京东需要新故事
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 11:47
Core Viewpoint - JD.com is at a critical juncture in 2025, requiring a new narrative to support future growth as it ventures into new markets like food delivery and automotive sales [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Moves - On October 14, JD.com announced a collaboration with GAC and CATL to launch a car, marking its entry into the automotive industry [2]. - JD.com clarified that it will focus on selling cars rather than manufacturing them, leveraging its consumer insights and exclusive sales capabilities [3]. - The company's recent moves, including entering the food delivery market and automotive sales, reflect a strategic attempt to find new growth avenues amid slowing traditional e-commerce growth [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - JD.com faces unprecedented growth pressures due to the saturation of mobile internet traffic and challenges from live-streaming e-commerce models [4]. - The slowing growth rate in financial reports and cautious market sentiment indicate that merely optimizing existing business lines is insufficient for future growth [4]. Group 3: Transformation and Adaptation - The company is attempting to address low-frequency consumption patterns by entering high-frequency markets like food delivery, while also targeting high-value sectors like automotive sales [5]. - Historical examples, such as Fujifilm's successful transformation, illustrate that large companies can pivot effectively, but it requires strategic foresight and adaptability [6]. - JD.com's aggressive cross-industry moves signify a necessary evolution, despite the inherent risks and challenges associated with such transformations [6].
未见光刻机,新凯来依旧引爆“中国芯”
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in China's semiconductor industry, particularly through the introduction of innovative products by companies like Wanliyan and Xinkailai, which are breaking through technological barriers and enhancing domestic capabilities in high-end testing equipment and EDA software [2][6][12]. Group 1: Wanliyan's Innovations - Wanliyan has launched a new 90GHz high-speed oscilloscope, which is the second fastest globally and the only one in China, breaking the Western "Wassenaar Arrangement" restrictions [2][7]. - The oscilloscope's high bandwidth allows for precise testing of advanced chips, such as 7nm AI chips, which require around 60GHz to 90GHz for effective testing [8][9]. - The development of this oscilloscope involved integrating seven key technology areas, showcasing Wanliyan's strong system integration and engineering capabilities [9][10]. Group 2: Xinkailai's EDA Software - Xinkailai's subsidiary, Qiyunfang, introduced two EDA software products with independent intellectual property rights, which are crucial for chip and PCB design [12][13]. - The new EDA software reportedly improves performance by 30% over industry benchmarks and reduces hardware development cycles by 40% [14]. - The software supports collaborative design, allowing multiple engineers to work on complex circuit boards simultaneously, enhancing efficiency [14][15]. Group 3: Market Context and Collaboration - The article emphasizes the collaborative progress in domestic semiconductor equipment, materials, and EDA tools, which are creating a positive feedback loop for innovation [23][35]. - The growth of companies like Xinkailai is closely tied to the expanding domestic market for AI, automotive, and data center chips, providing unique opportunities for rapid product iteration and commercialization [23][24]. - The article notes a shift in the semiconductor industry from isolated breakthroughs to a more integrated approach, where companies are working together across the supply chain to enhance overall efficiency and innovation [26][35].
券商股权冰火24小时:这边被抢疯,那边却遭遇“0人出价”
经济观察报· 2025-10-16 02:36
Core Viewpoint - The stark contrast in the auction outcomes of two brokerage firms reflects a significant shift in market perception regarding the value of brokerages [1] Group 1: Auction Outcomes - On October 12, Huachuang Yuxin's 41.455 million shares were auctioned with a starting price of 295 million yuan, but the auction ended without any bids [2] - Conversely, on October 13, Jinlong Co.'s 30 million shares were auctioned successfully, with a final price of 376 million yuan, representing a 25% premium over the starting price [2][4] - The auction results indicate a divergence in investor interest, with Huachuang Yuxin's shares failing to attract buyers while Jinlong Co.'s shares saw competitive bidding [2][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Huachuang Yuxin reported a revenue decline of 11.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of only 0.07 billion yuan [4] - In contrast, Jinlong Co. experienced a revenue increase of 16.35%, although its net profit was still negative when excluding a one-time gain from asset sales [5] - The financial performance of these firms plays a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and auction outcomes [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The auction results are influenced by the broader market conditions, with Jinlong Co.'s shares trading at a discount of 6.8% compared to their previous closing price, while Huachuang Yuxin's shares were at a 9.3% discount [7] - The market's perception of brokerage stocks has fluctuated, reflecting changes in investor confidence amid market volatility [7][8] - The ongoing trend of equity auctions among small and medium-sized brokerages is indicative of the competitive pressures they face in a consolidating industry [13] Group 4: Investment Logic Transformation - The rationale behind brokerage equity transactions has evolved from merely seeking low-priced assets to capturing future value and strategic integration [17] - Investors are now more focused on the potential for synergies and strategic fit within larger frameworks rather than just the immediate price of the shares [17] - The shift in investment logic is evident as local state-owned enterprises increasingly play a pivotal role in brokerage equity acquisitions [16][17]
19个月来首次,核心CPI回升至1%
经济观察报· 2025-10-15 13:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the pressure on the household sector due to declining housing prices, despite improvements in government and corporate balance sheets supported by debt reduction policies and related industry support [1][2][3] - The September CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with food prices being a significant factor, as they dropped by 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points [2][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to above 1% growth in 19 months, indicating a potential shift in consumer price trends [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the contrasting trends in food and gold prices, with food prices experiencing negative growth since July, while gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively in September [4][5] - The report from Nomura China indicates that the CPI remains negative, but the decline has slightly narrowed, driven by rising gold prices, while the service sector continues to be a drag on overall consumption [5][6] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence and increase household income [7][8]
OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼:要让AI融入所有政府流程,覆盖整个经济
经济观察报· 2025-10-15 13:14
Group 1 - AI has evolved from a novelty to a productivity tool in the workplace, with significant advancements expected in the next one to two years [2][3] - Countries are encouraged to develop their own AI strategies to integrate AI into government processes and the economy [2][3] - OpenAI, a leading AI research company, recently completed a share sale transaction, resulting in a company valuation of $500 billion [3] Group 2 - Sam Altman predicts the arrival of superintelligence, with a timeline suggesting that by 2025, AI systems capable of cognitive work will emerge, followed by systems that can discover novel insights in 2026 and robots that can perform tasks in the real world by 2027 [4] - The rapid advancement of AI is seen as both exciting and crucial for sustainable economic growth, emphasizing the need for technology and society to evolve together [5] - To prevent an "AI divide," Altman advocates for making AI abundant and affordable, teaching people how to use it, and ensuring its widespread availability [5]