经济观察报
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腾讯中报有种“经济上行期的美”
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 09:19
如果从各业务贡献收入的维度给腾讯下定义,腾讯首先是一家 游戏平台公司(国内外游戏收入占比33%);其次是一家金融 科技公司,商业支付、理财和云服务收入占比超3成;第三是 广告业务,收入占比约18.5%;最后才是视频号、腾讯音乐、 腾讯视频等社交网络业务,占比约17.8%。 作者:陈月芹 封图:本报资料库 在京东、美团、阿里巴巴忙着砸钱补贴外卖业务时,远离纷争的腾讯控股(00700.HK)用实际行 动表明自己只务正业、专心搞钱。 一位投资者拿腾讯和京东对比:在上半年AI资本支出高达466亿元的情况下,腾讯斥资365亿港元 回购股票作为股东回报;京东则暂停了回购,"现金被用在外卖补贴上,相当于股东请客喝奶茶 了"。 这份营收增长14%、净利润同比增18%的半年报一出,8月14日,腾讯股价一度摸到600港元/股的 临界线,创下近4年新高。 上半年,腾讯的金融科技和企业服务收入1104亿元,同比增幅7.5%,其中商业支付和消费信贷服 务是主要驱动力,为B端企业提供GPU租赁和API调用的云服务也有所增长。 一定程度上,数亿量级的商户、个人用户通过微信支付产生的交易数据,是反映当前国内居民消 费、储蓄和投资习惯的重要样 ...
中国AI企业闯中东:石油资本背后的技术远征
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 06:40
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant shift of Chinese AI companies towards the Middle East, driven by the region's ambitious AI development plans and substantial investments from local governments and funds [6][7][33]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" explicitly identifies AI as a key pillar for national transformation, while the UAE aims to increase AI's contribution to GDP to 14% within ten years [6][7]. - The Saudi sovereign fund PIF plans to invest $72 billion in AI infrastructure over the next five years, and Qatar has launched a $5 billion fund to attract global AI companies [7]. - The Middle East is becoming a crucial hub for the globalization of Chinese AI enterprises, with significant market potential in sectors like healthcare and autonomous driving [6][33]. Group 2: Successful Collaborations - Shenzhen Xiaoku Technology has formed a deep partnership with Abu Dhabi Capital Group, marking the first collaboration between a Chinese AI firm and a leading capital group in Abu Dhabi [2][3]. - Companies like Huixin Intelligent and Wenyan Zhixing have successfully penetrated the Middle Eastern market, with Huixin's AI robots becoming standard in Dubai hospitals and Wenyan's Robotaxi service gaining traction in Saudi Arabia [5][18]. - Xiaoku Technology has initiated several multi-million dollar projects in the UAE and established joint ventures to enhance AI applications in smart cities and sustainable development [10][13]. Group 3: Cultural and Compliance Challenges - Chinese companies face cultural adaptation challenges, as seen with Huixin Intelligent's adjustments to their robot designs to respect local customs [16][17]. - Compliance with local data regulations is critical, with companies like Wanda Information developing systems to ensure data localization and privacy [19][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the hierarchical decision-making processes in the Middle East, where royal endorsement is often necessary for project approval [34]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes a stark contrast in funding, with domestic AI financing dropping from $8.2 billion in Q1 2023 to $3.7 billion in Q1 2025, while Middle Eastern sovereign funds are increasing their investments in technology [33]. - The Middle East's smart healthcare equipment market is projected to reach $4.5 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 43% [33]. - The article suggests that companies should consider entering less regulated markets like Oman and Bahrain as a stepping stone to the more competitive Saudi market [34].
“股神”卷走4500万元跑了
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 06:27
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the prevalence of investment scams disguised as stock recommendations, where fraudsters pose as "stock gods" or brokerage personnel to lure investors with promises of high returns, ultimately leading to significant financial losses for victims [1][4][11]. Group 1: Scam Mechanisms - Fraudsters utilize social media and e-commerce platforms to connect with investors, offering enticing stock recommendations as bait to build trust before executing their scams [1][4]. - The scams often involve the use of obscure software and misleading terminology such as "insider stocks" and "institutional cooperation" to manipulate victims into investing more money [4][11]. - Victims are often led to believe they are engaging in legitimate trading activities, only to discover that the transactions are fabricated and their funds are unrecoverable [3][12]. Group 2: Case Studies - Investor Liu reported a loss of 200,000 yuan after following a scammer known as "the Godfather" for nine months, who ultimately admitted to the fraud [3][4]. - Liu's experience reflects a broader trend, with over 300 victims collectively losing more than 30 million yuan through the "Zhongyue Youpei" app, which was later revealed to be a fraudulent platform [4][11]. - Another victim, Mr. Dong, was misled by a scammer posing as a securities consultant, resulting in a loss of 30,000 yuan after being promised high returns through a fake trading platform [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Preventive Measures - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings about the rise of such scams, emphasizing that any entity offering paid stock analysis without proper licensing is engaging in illegal activities [21][22]. - Securities firms are actively monitoring and shutting down fraudulent websites and apps, with one firm reporting over a thousand fake sites closed between January and July 2025 [20]. - Experts suggest a multi-faceted approach to combat these scams, including enhanced vigilance from investors, stricter regulatory oversight, and improved technology to detect and prevent fraudulent activities [21][22].
经观社论|A股活力如何持续
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 06:27
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience and strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 20% in the past three months, reflecting the robustness of the Chinese economy [1][4]. Policy Factors - The recent rally in the A-share market is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts, consumption and financial support measures, and various capital market reforms [2][3]. - The introduction of policies aimed at attracting medium to long-term capital into the market, such as public fund reforms and the reactivation of the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, has created a synergistic effect with macroeconomic policies [2]. Financial Factors - The market has seen significant inflows from central stabilizing funds and insurance capital, which have been actively investing in high-dividend companies, enhancing the attractiveness of the stock market for investors [2]. - The decline in government bond yields and bank deposit rates has increased the willingness of institutions and individuals to invest in the stock market, contributing to a substantial influx of capital [2]. Economic Factors - The GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year has provided a strong boost to the A-share market, alongside breakthroughs in AI technology and record-high overseas licensing of innovative drugs, leading to a revaluation of tech and pharmaceutical stocks [3]. - The temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. has positively influenced market sentiment, contributing to a more favorable environment for the A-share market [3]. Market Sentiment - The recent market recovery has led to increased discussions about the stock market, a rise in new retail investor accounts, and a general boost in market confidence, with analysts predicting a potential bull market [4]. - The central political bureau's emphasis on enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market is seen as crucial for sustaining the upward trend in the A-share market [4]. Regulatory Considerations - Financial regulators are urged to maintain a steady market mechanism and respond promptly to external shocks while ensuring strict oversight to prevent market risks [5]. - Historical patterns of market behavior highlight the need for caution against speculative trading and the importance of a rational investment approach [5].
雀巢中国的关键一年
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 06:27
Core Viewpoint - Nestlé is facing challenges in the Chinese market due to weak demand and deflation, requiring time to build a consumer base for performance improvement, which may take up to a year [1][3]. Management Changes - The new CEO of Nestlé Greater China, Kais Marzouki, aims to revitalize the business by enhancing collaboration and governance, having officially taken office on July 1 [2][6]. - Marzouki has a long history with Nestlé, having worked for 30 years in various senior management roles, including leading the successful recovery of the Philippine market [7][8]. - The management team is undergoing significant changes, with key positions in the pet food and coffee sectors being filled by new leaders [8][10]. Business Changes - Nestlé is restructuring its business units in China, with potential adjustments to various product lines and a focus on reducing underperforming categories [10][11]. - The company plans to invest in growth areas and has identified six global innovation projects that have already generated over 200 million Swiss francs in sales [11][12]. - A strategy of "SKU reduction" is being implemented to streamline product offerings and improve efficiency [11][12]. Model Changes - Nestlé is shifting its operational model from a distribution-driven approach to a consumer-driven one, emphasizing the need to activate consumer demand [13][14]. - The company aims to balance inventory levels and transition from a "push" to a "pull" strategy, focusing on end-consumer engagement [14][15]. - This transformation is expected to take time and may lead to fluctuations in performance as the company adjusts its strategies [15].
增程车纯电续航越来越长,是进步还是偏离初心?
经济观察报· 2025-08-17 06:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid evolution of range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs), highlighting the shift from smaller batteries with larger range extenders to larger batteries with smaller range extenders, driven by consumer demand and technological advancements [2][9][16]. Development of Range-Extended Technology - The development of range-extended technology has seen significant improvements, with pure electric range increasing from 120 km to 200 km over several years, and then to 400 km in just a couple of years [2][4]. - Battery pack capacities have also increased dramatically, from around 10 kWh to 50-60 kWh, showcasing impressive technological advancements [2][4]. Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - The market for range-extended vehicles has grown significantly, with many manufacturers who previously focused solely on pure electric vehicles now embracing range extenders due to their practicality and convenience [2][9]. - The average battery capacity of range-extended models has increased by approximately 20.54% from 2021 to 2023, indicating a trend towards larger batteries [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among manufacturers has intensified, with various models now offering pure electric ranges exceeding 300 km, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations [6][10]. - Major players like Ideal, Seres, and Lantu have upgraded their battery capacities significantly, with the average battery capacity reaching 43.77 kWh in 2023 [4][5]. Factors Driving the Shift to Larger Batteries - The decline in battery costs, which have dropped over 80% in the past decade, has enabled manufacturers to increase battery capacities economically [9]. - The proliferation of fast-charging infrastructure has supported the development of long-range models, making them more appealing to consumers [9][10]. Industry Perspectives on Battery Size - There are differing opinions within the industry regarding the necessity of larger batteries, with some arguing that they enhance the driving experience while others caution about increased costs and vehicle weight [3][12]. - The debate continues over whether the future of range-extended vehicles should focus on larger batteries or a balance between battery size and range extender efficiency [15][16]. Future Outlook - The consensus is that while range-extended vehicles are currently popular, the industry may eventually shift towards pure electric vehicles as battery technology matures and charging infrastructure improves [16][17]. - The ongoing competition and technological advancements suggest that the market for range-extended vehicles will continue to evolve, with potential for both large and small battery configurations depending on market demands and technological capabilities [17][18].
多款救命药有望商保报销 保费怎么定是关键
经济观察报· 2025-08-16 13:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory in China, which supplements the basic medical insurance directory and aims to include high-priced innovative drugs that provide significant clinical value and patient benefits [2][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction of the Commercial Insurance Innovative Drug Directory - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced a list of drugs that passed the initial review for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with a total of 121 drugs, over half of which are cancer or rare disease medications [2][5]. - The directory is expected to include high-priced drugs, such as CAR-T therapies costing over 1 million yuan per injection and gene therapies priced around 98,000 yuan per injection [2][4]. Drug Approval and Characteristics - To qualify for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, drugs must either be newly approved from January 1, 2020, to June 30, 2025, or have indications included in the national rare disease directory by June 30, 2025 [5]. - Among the 121 drugs, 57 are imported, accounting for 47%, with notable entries from companies like Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson [5]. Focus on Cancer and Rare Diseases - The majority of drugs that passed the initial review are cancer treatments, with over 40 entries, followed by 35 for rare diseases [5][6]. - The article highlights the potential for the directory to alleviate payment challenges for rare disease medications, with companies actively submitting applications [6]. Pricing and Negotiation Challenges - The pricing negotiation process for drugs in the commercial insurance directory remains uncertain, as it involves collaboration between the National Healthcare Security Administration, commercial insurers, and pharmaceutical companies [12][13]. - The article notes that the commercial insurance directory may serve as a "double insurance" for companies, allowing them to apply for both the basic medical insurance and the commercial insurance directories simultaneously [9]. Future Considerations and Recommendations - The article suggests that the implementation of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory requires further exploration and refinement, with recommendations for pilot programs in specific insurance products [14]. - It emphasizes the need for insurance companies to develop reasonable pricing mechanisms and improve data integration with basic medical insurance to enhance their pricing strategies [13][14].
股市赚钱效应:存款搬家,券商抢客
经济观察报· 2025-08-16 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of deposit "migration" from banks to non-bank financial institutions, driven by declining interest rates and the rising performance of the stock market, leading to increased deposits in non-bank financial sectors [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - Recent data shows a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with a rise of 2.14 trillion yuan year-on-year, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [4]. - The trend of deposit migration is reflected in the behavior of customers, with many transferring large deposits to banks that offer direct connections to securities investment accounts or investing in funds and other financial products instead of renewing deposits [2][4]. - The capital market's recovery and declining interest rates are identified as primary drivers for the shift of household deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [5]. Group 2: Bank Responses to Deposit Outflows - Banks are under pressure to retain deposits, with retail banking staff being urged to promote gold and interest rate coupons to keep personal deposits [7]. - There is a notable increase in the demand for large time deposit transfers, as investors seek to quickly access funds for stock investments [3]. - Banks are attempting to counteract deposit outflows by increasing corporate loans and encouraging businesses to open accounts for payroll and trade fund settlements [10][11]. Group 3: Impact on Securities Firms - Securities firms are experiencing a surge in client acquisition due to the influx of funds from migrating deposits, leading to increased competition among brokers [13]. - The stock market's performance has made it easier for brokers to meet their client acquisition targets, with many clients actively seeking investment opportunities in high-performing funds [14][15]. - However, the competitive landscape has intensified, with some brokers resorting to commission wars to retain high-net-worth clients, leading to potential risks of client loss [13][17].
被误读的“社保新规”和担心的中小企业
经济观察报· 2025-08-16 08:17
Core Viewpoint - The recent legal interpretation emphasizes the enforcement of existing social insurance regulations rather than introducing new rules, and it should not be over-interpreted [3][12][27] Group 1: Concerns of Business Owners - Business owners are primarily worried about the impact of compliance costs for employee social insurance on their profits [3][15] - Many small and micro enterprises have previously operated under informal agreements not to pay social insurance, leading to potential legal disputes as employees can now claim compensation for non-payment [7][15] - The implementation of the new interpretation may lead some businesses to reduce staff, cut salaries, or even shut down due to increased costs [7][16] Group 2: Implications of the New Interpretation - The new interpretation clarifies that employees can demand compensation if their employer fails to pay social insurance, even if there was a prior agreement not to do so [5][8] - The interpretation is expected to push some businesses to comply with social insurance obligations, as it strengthens employees' rights [7][12] - The legal framework for social insurance has existed for years, but enforcement has been lax, particularly for small businesses facing economic difficulties [6][12] Group 3: Challenges in Achieving Universal Social Insurance - Despite the goal of universal social insurance, significant gaps remain, particularly among small and micro enterprises, which often struggle to comply due to financial constraints [21][27] - The willingness of employees to contribute to social insurance is influenced by their immediate financial needs versus long-term benefits [22][23] - The current economic environment, including pressures from the pandemic, has led to a more lenient approach from authorities regarding compliance with social insurance payments [27][26] Group 4: Future Considerations - The potential for increased legal disputes over social insurance compliance may lead to a more cautious approach from businesses, particularly small and micro enterprises [10][14] - There is a concern that the new interpretation could lead to a rise in operational costs, prompting businesses to pass these costs onto consumers or reduce their workforce [16][17] - The long-term sustainability of the social insurance system relies on a broader base of compliant contributors, necessitating careful consideration of the balance between enforcement and economic viability for businesses [28][27]
外资美妆“利润保卫战”
经济观察报· 2025-08-16 08:17
Core Viewpoint - Foreign beauty companies are focusing on profit recovery and operational efficiency through a series of transformation and restructuring plans from 2023 to 2024, with the common goal of restoring profits as they navigate a challenging market environment [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Results - Shiseido's sales in the first half of 2025 fell by 7.6% to 469.83 billion yen, but its core operating profit increased by 21.3% to 23.37 billion yen. L'Oréal's sales reached 22.473 billion euros, a 3% increase, while its operating profit was approximately 4.74 billion euros, up 3.1%, but lower than the previous year's growth of 8%. Estée Lauder's net sales dropped by 10% to 3.55 billion USD, with net profit declining by 52% to 159 million USD, although it turned a profit compared to the previous quarter [2][5]. Measures Taken - The companies have focused on three main strategies: 1. **Cost Control and Operational Efficiency**: Estée Lauder's restructuring plan includes layoffs affecting 1,800 to 3,000 employees, with further cuts of 5,800 to 7,000 jobs planned. L'Oréal has reduced advertising and promotional expenses to 7 billion euros and administrative costs to 4.2 billion euros, reflecting a commitment to cost control [6]. 2. **High-Margin Product Strategy**: Estée Lauder is expanding its high-end fragrance offerings, while L'Oréal has noted stronger growth in high-end brands compared to mid-range brands in the Chinese market [7]. 3. **Innovation and New Revenue Streams**: L'Oréal is implementing a "multi-polar model" to drive growth through technology, local supply chains, and forward-looking investments [8][9]. Market Transition - The shift towards profit recovery indicates a transition from growth-focused strategies to prioritizing profitability due to intensified market competition and shrinking profit margins. Companies like Estée Lauder have initiated profit recovery plans, emphasizing cost structure improvements and reduced high-risk innovations [11][12]. Future Goals - Shiseido aims to restore profitability by 2026, while Estée Lauder targets a return to double-digit profit margins by 2027. L'Oréal remains confident in maintaining high profit margins [14][15]. The companies are also adjusting their strategies to reduce reliance on the Chinese market, which has been a significant source of pressure due to declining sales [16].