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金价上涨的秘密:美元主导的世界货币格局正在巨变
经济观察报· 2025-10-07 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching $4000 per ounce, reflects not only rising risk aversion but also a response to shifts in the global monetary order, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, driven by factors such as central banks accumulating gold reserves and private sectors actively investing in gold assets [2]. - The historical peak in gold prices coincides with a technical government shutdown in the U.S. and an uncertain global economic outlook, highlighting a blend of market risk appetite and instinct for safety [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is currently in a phase of "spiral ascent" but faces structural challenges, despite China's growing economic influence [4]. - In Q1 2025, the RMB accounted for 2.12% of global foreign reserves, ranking sixth, significantly lower than the U.S. dollar's 57.74% [3]. Group 3: Market Adoption of Renminbi - A notable shift occurred in Q2 2024, where RMB cross-border transaction settlements surpassed those in USD for the first time, indicating a growing preference for RMB among enterprises [5]. - Surveys show that 68% of companies used RMB for cross-border trade settlements in Q4 2024, with 71% citing "asset safety" as the primary reason for this choice [5]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Policy Developments - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center and the upcoming 10th anniversary of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) signify a shift towards a transaction-driven RMB infrastructure [12][16]. - The People's Bank of China is focused on enhancing the global cross-border payment system, promoting the principles of "no loss, compliance, and interoperability" for digital currency [15]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Strategies - Over 60% of enterprises perceive the complexity of cross-border RMB policies as a significant barrier, indicating a need for simplification and optimization of capital flow processes [20]. - To enhance RMB internationalization, strategies should focus on improving liquidity, developing onshore derivative markets for risk hedging, and creating tailored financial products for enterprises [20]. Group 6: Broader Implications - The ongoing structural changes in the global monetary environment are reflected in the increasing use of RMB and the historical highs in gold prices, suggesting a potential shift away from dollar dominance [21][22]. - The RMB's evolution from a policy-driven currency to one that gains market acceptance through transaction experiences is crucial for its future credibility and stability [17][24].
秦皇岛港蝶变|十月行记
经济观察报· 2025-10-07 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Qinhuangdao from a coal transportation hub to a tourism destination, highlighting the development of the Port Industrial Tourism Area and its impact on local tourism and economy [5][12][22]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development - Qinhuangdao Port was established in 1898 and became a significant coal transportation hub due to its strategic location and proximity to major coal mines [6][7]. - The port has historically been a key player in coal transportation, being the first in the world to output over 200 million tons of coal annually by 2007, accounting for over 40% of the total coastal coal output in China [7]. - The city has evolved from a small fishing village to a major urban center, largely due to the development of the port and its associated rail infrastructure [8][9]. Group 2: Current Operations and Challenges - Qinhuangdao Port has faced challenges in coal transportation, with a decline in coal throughput expected in 2023 and 2024 due to competition from imported coal and the rise of renewable energy [12]. - The port's coal throughput was reported at 2.08 billion tons in 2024, with a total cargo throughput of 4.14 billion tons across its facilities [4][12]. - The local economy heavily relies on the port for employment, raising concerns about the economic impact of any potential closure or significant operational changes [12]. Group 3: Transition to Tourism - The Port Industrial Tourism Area has been developed to repurpose industrial sites into tourist attractions, featuring elements like the "Railway Flower Sea" and various recreational facilities [15][18]. - The area aims to connect various tourist spots along the coast, enhancing the overall visitor experience and promoting local tourism [22]. - The transformation includes the establishment of a sailing base and event spaces, indicating a shift towards a more diversified economic model [18][21].
四天四夜同台斗戏,流传五百年的婺剧也疯狂
经济观察报· 2025-10-07 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the cultural significance and personal memories associated with the local opera, specifically the Wuju opera in the Jinhua region, highlighting its historical roots and contemporary relevance in rural entertainment [2][15]. Group 1: Historical Context - Wuju opera, originating from the Ming Dynasty, has a history of over 500 years and is considered a "living fossil" of Southern opera, combining various vocal styles [15]. - The tradition of watching opera in rural areas has been passed down through generations, with performances often announced through word of mouth and now via social media platforms [3][4]. Group 2: Cultural Practices - The practice of "Dou Tai," where two opera troupes perform simultaneously, is a popular form of entertainment in the region, attracting large audiences from surrounding areas [2][4]. - The article describes the lively atmosphere during performances, including the presence of food vendors and the communal experience of watching opera in less-than-ideal sanitary conditions [8][9][10]. Group 3: Economic Aspects - The cost of hiring a Wuju troupe for performances can be significant, with estimates for a four-day event reaching around 200,000 yuan, indicating a competitive local entertainment market [16]. - The popularity of Wuju opera in Jinhua is attributed to the region's economic development, where local entrepreneurs often sponsor performances as a means of social prestige [16]. Group 4: Modern Adaptations - Contemporary Wuju performances have incorporated modern elements such as electronic subtitles and enhanced stage effects, making them more accessible to a wider audience [15]. - The article notes that Wuju opera has expanded beyond rural settings, finding its place in urban theaters, thus broadening its audience base [16].
天津蒸饼里的快乐密码|十月行记
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 10:29
在社交媒体追逐"打卡美学"的当下,天津人依然固执地守着某 种"反精致"的生活哲学——食物不必惊艳,但必须妥帖;日子 无需喧哗,自在便是圆满。 作者: 王雅洁 封图:本报资料室 早晨10:30的天津,雾气尚未散尽,鞍山道旁的"中栗华栗子"门口已排起长队。 队伍里多是本地人——穿着睡衣的大爷拎着搪瓷缸子,遛狗的大妈挎着布兜,年轻人边刷手机边向前挪动。 玻璃橱窗后,蒸汽氤氲中,一笼笼印着花纹的蒸饼正出锅。 "要杏儿和巧克力双拼!"常来的顾客不用看菜单,扫码付款的动作行云流水。 这家以栗子闻名的店铺,蒸饼却是隐藏的明星产品。 (当地蒸饼店的菜单 经济观察报 王雅洁/摄) 排在前面的本地居民王大爷说:"这家算网红了,但老天津人更认家门口没牌子的小推车。" 他指了指巷子深处:"我吃了三十年那家的甜咸馅蒸饼,老板连招牌都懒得挂。" 这种随意性恰是天津饮食文化的底色。 在社交媒体追逐"打卡美学"的当下,天津人依然固执地守着某种"反精致"的生活哲学——食物不必惊艳,但必须妥 帖;日子无需喧哗,自在便是圆满。 在这座被戏称为"最快乐"的城市里,一枚售价几元钱的蒸饼,正是解读这份快乐密码的关键所在。 2009年他推着小车在华苑卖蒸 ...
去世界泳装之都旅游,有点高兴
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 10:29
Core Viewpoint - Xingcheng, a county-level city in Liaoning Province, is leveraging its strong swimwear industry to boost tourism, transitioning from a manufacturing hub to a tourist destination through innovative strategies and local engagement [2][19]. Group 1: Tourism Development - The local tourism bureau has implemented a "first inquiry responsibility system" and "advance compensation" mechanism to enhance visitor experience, aiming to resolve disputes quickly and maintain a positive image of Xingcheng [2][4]. - In the first eight months of this year, Xingcheng received 10.46 million domestic tourists, a year-on-year increase of 16.38%, with tourism revenue reaching 5.518 billion yuan, also up 16.17% [3]. - The city has seen a significant increase in hotel occupancy rates, with nearly full bookings during the recent National Day holiday, and has added nearly 8,000 new beds to accommodate the growing number of visitors [4][3]. Group 2: Cultural and Emotional Engagement - The city is focusing on creating emotional value for tourists, branding itself as "Happy Xingcheng" with a simple smiley face symbol to attract younger visitors [10][11]. - Local initiatives include creating engaging experiences such as the "Smile Road" and colorful installations that have garnered significant online attention, leading to increased visitor engagement [11][13]. - The average stay duration for tourists has increased from 1.2 days to nearly 2 days, with a notable decrease in the average age of visitors by 10 years [17]. Group 3: Swimwear Industry Synergy - Xingcheng is recognized as the largest swimwear production base in China, producing 200 million pieces annually, with a market share of over 40% domestically and 25% internationally, generating an output value of 15 billion yuan [2][19]. - The synergy between the swimwear industry and tourism is evident, as the local high-end swimwear brand "Fandean" has opened a store in the ancient city, integrating cultural elements into its products [19]. - The city aims to transform its manufacturing capabilities into brand value and immersive experiences, addressing challenges such as reliance on external suppliers and the need for brand differentiation [20]. Group 4: Future Aspirations - The local government has set ambitious goals to develop Xingcheng into a "tourism hotspot city," then a "residential tourism city," ultimately attracting talent for long-term residency [21]. - Strategies for future growth include enhancing planning, accelerating projects, innovating business models, and improving marketing and service quality to elevate the city's brand recognition [21].
年轻人的国风审美,救了这个贫困县
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 10:29
Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Cao County from a traditional agricultural county reliant on labor export to a new type of county driven by rural e-commerce took about a decade, initiated by the establishment of internet connectivity [4]. Group 1: Historical Context - Before gaining recognition for its Hanfu culture, Cao County was listed among the counties in Shandong with the heaviest poverty alleviation tasks [2]. - In 2005, Cao County exported 200,000 rural laborers, with an average monthly income of 700 to 800 yuan, contributing 1.7 billion yuan to the county's GDP of 5.65 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of the total [3]. - The county's infrastructure was previously underdeveloped, with poor transportation hampering economic activities [3]. Group 2: E-commerce Development - The first e-commerce venture in Cao County began in 2008 when a local youth opened the county's first photography clothing store on Taobao, marking the start of the e-commerce era [6]. - By 2010, the first successful order was received, leading to a shift in focus towards the production and sale of performance costumes, which proved to be more profitable [8]. - The number of online stores in Dinglou Village grew from 14 in 2010 to over 100 by 2011, indicating a rapid adoption of e-commerce among local residents [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The average annual income of villagers in Dinglou Village increased from around 1,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan after the introduction of e-commerce [9]. - The establishment of a complete supply chain within a 5-kilometer radius around Dinglou Village facilitated the growth of the local performance costume industry [9]. - By 2024, the sales revenue of Hanfu in Cao County is projected to reach 8.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.28% [20]. Group 4: Community and Cultural Influence - The e-commerce boom has created job opportunities for approximately 350,000 people in Cao County, significantly improving living standards [20]. - The local government has initiated programs to promote Hanfu culture across various sectors, aiming to establish it as a core pillar of the county's economy [20]. - The transformation has led to improved infrastructure and living conditions, with many villagers now owning new homes and vehicles [21].
闽南博饼|十月行记
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 02:43
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the cultural significance and evolution of the traditional game "博饼" (Bo Bing) in Xiamen, which is a unique Mid-Autumn Festival celebration that combines dice rolling with the awarding of prizes, reflecting the rich heritage of Minnan culture [2][3]. Group 1: Game Mechanics and Cultural Significance - The game involves rolling six dice in a bowl, with specific combinations corresponding to a traditional examination system, where "红四点" (red four dots) plays a central role as the most coveted outcome [2][3]. - The game has historical roots linked to the national hero Zheng Chenggong, who is said to have popularized it among his troops to alleviate homesickness during the Ming-Qing transition [3][5]. - The number "four" holds special significance in Minnan culture, symbolizing good fortune and joy, which is reflected in the game's mechanics and the color red associated with it [4]. Group 2: Modern Adaptations and Community Engagement - The traditional prizes of mooncakes have evolved into more practical rewards, with community events organized by property management and businesses to engage residents and customers [5]. - The upcoming "2025 Cross-Strait Mid-Autumn Bo Bing Champion" competition in Xiamen will feature 60 Bo Bing points, allowing participants to win various prizes, including a grand prize of a car [5]. - The game fosters community bonds and celebrates local culture, with the sounds of dice rolling symbolizing a connection to history and tradition [6].
房价都在跌,偏偏这里在涨
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 02:43
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing a significant upward trend, contrasting sharply with the declining prices in major cities like Xi'an, driven by high demand and limited supply [5][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Dingbian County's new housing prices have surpassed 5000 yuan per square meter as of October 2025, a notable increase from under 4000 yuan per square meter in 2022, marking a cumulative rise of over 25% in three years [5][6]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped to an average of 12,234 yuan per square meter as of September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% and a nearly 25% decrease over three years [5][6]. - The local economy heavily relies on the oil industry, with Dingbian being the largest oil and gas production county in China, which supports the rising housing demand [9][10]. Group 2: Buyer Profiles - There are two primary buyer categories in Dingbian: those purchasing for marriage, often with high standards for housing, and parents seeking homes in desirable school districts due to new policies requiring early home purchases for school enrollment [11][12]. - The demand from families relocating to the county for educational opportunities has contributed to the sustained housing price increases, as rural populations continue to migrate to urban areas [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current housing price surge is uncertain, with concerns about potential price corrections as new housing projects are set to be completed in the coming years, which may increase supply [20]. - Local residents express mixed feelings about the rapid price increases, with some considering selling their properties to capitalize on the current market conditions [19]. - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a general decline in housing prices across major cities, raising questions about the longevity of Dingbian's price growth [21].
安阳识骨记:三千年文明的当代回响|十月行记
经济观察报· 2025-10-06 02:43
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Anyang as a historical witness to Chinese civilization, particularly through the discovery and study of oracle bones, which represent the earliest form of Chinese writing and provide insights into the Shang Dynasty's culture and society [1][26]. Group 1: Historical Significance - Anyang, known as a "Seven Dynasties Ancient Capital," is often overshadowed by other historical cities like Luoyang and Kaifeng, yet it holds the key to understanding ancient Chinese civilization through oracle bones [2][3]. - The discovery of oracle bones in 1899 marked a pivotal moment in Chinese historical research, leading to the recognition of Anyang as the site of the ancient capital of the Shang Dynasty [4][6][7]. - Over the course of nine years, 24,918 pieces of inscribed oracle bones were excavated, revealing a wealth of information about the Shang Dynasty's rituals, warfare, and daily life [9][11]. Group 2: Cultural Legacy - The oracle bones contain approximately 4,300 distinct characters, with about 1,500 of them being decipherable, forming the foundation of the earliest Chinese writing system [11]. - The content of these inscriptions covers various aspects of life, including agriculture, astronomy, and medicine, illustrating the complexity of Shang society [11]. - The ongoing research and digitalization of oracle bones are revitalizing interest in this ancient script, demonstrating its relevance in contemporary culture [13][21]. Group 3: Modern Interactions - The daily life of Anyang's residents is intertwined with its archaeological heritage, as they live in close proximity to historical sites, fostering a unique urban atmosphere [19][20]. - Young entrepreneurs are creatively engaging with oracle script, transforming ancient symbols into modern products, such as emoji and merchandise, showcasing the enduring appeal of this ancient writing [23][26]. - Digital technology is revolutionizing the study of oracle bones, allowing for faster analysis while still requiring expert interpretation to understand the historical context [21].
香港家族企业为何就可以传承?
经济观察报· 2025-10-04 05:42
Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's commercial families, despite having a history of only a century, have successfully passed down their businesses through multiple generations, attributed to effective enterprise succession, talent cultivation, and systematic family governance [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Since the 1840s, Hong Kong has undergone over 180 years of modern economic development, resulting in a number of family businesses that have operated for multiple generations [2]. - In the 2024 Hurun China 500 list, 42 companies have a history of over 50 years, with 70% from Hong Kong and Taiwan; 6 companies are over 100 years old, all from Hong Kong [2]. Group 2: Ownership and Succession - The transfer of ownership (equity) is a critical aspect of family business succession, with Hong Kong families evolving modern equity transfer methods [4]. - Early practices of equal equity distribution often led to conflicts, as seen in the case of Yung Kee Restaurant, where equal shares resulted in family disputes and legal battles [4][5]. - Trusts have been utilized for equity transfer, with the case of New World Development illustrating the complexities and eventual restructuring of family trusts to stabilize operations [6][7]. Group 3: Multi-Child Family Dynamics - Hong Kong families often face challenges in transferring equity and management rights among multiple children, leading to a "pruning" process to consolidate shares among capable heirs [11][12]. - The case of Li & Fung Group demonstrates how family members can buy shares to gain control, although this process can cause emotional strain among family members [12][13]. Group 4: Family Governance - Family governance has evolved, with families like Li Ka-shing's establishing clear family rules and leadership structures to ensure smooth operations and succession [18][19]. - The establishment of family constitutions and governance bodies, as seen in the Li & Fung and Lee Kum Kee families, has become a model for effective family governance [19][20]. Group 5: Lessons for Mainland Families - The experiences of Hong Kong family businesses provide valuable lessons for mainland families, emphasizing the need for a learning process in business succession and governance [22][23]. - Successful succession involves trust design for equity and collaboration between family members and professional managers, as demonstrated by various Hong Kong families [24][25]. - The ultimate goal of family business succession is not only the continuity of the enterprise but also the emergence of talent and prosperity across generations [26].