Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding accounts receivable in the property management industry, particularly in the context of cash flow management and dividend sustainability. It highlights the significant changes in accounts receivable due to recent industry downturns and the need for a balanced development model focusing on scale, quality, and profit [3][4]. Accounts Receivable Analysis - The total accounts receivable for 30 tracked listed property companies increased from 29.18 billion to 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively. Notably, from 2023 onwards, the growth rate of accounts receivable is lower than that of operating income, indicating a significant slowdown [3]. - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61%. This trend suggests a gradual reduction in related party risks as the industry stabilizes [4]. - The aging of accounts receivable has worsened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024. Consequently, the provision for bad debts has risen sharply from 4% to 26% during the same period, reflecting increased collection difficulties [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that demonstrate independent business competitiveness and can effectively reduce related party transactions are deemed favorable. Additionally, firms with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales are likely to provide performance support while mitigating related party risks [5]. - Property management companies with natural advantages in merchant payment collection, low long-term arrears, controlled accounts receivable growth, adequate provisions, healthy aging structures, and high collection rates are recommended for investment [5].

报告导读： 2025 年 1-4 月全社会用电量增幅较弱导致火电需求下降 4.1% ，我们认为 这可能是中期对于煤炭需求端压力最大的时刻，煤炭的需求底部已现。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：从用电结构变化看电煤需求底部支撑——煤炭行业电煤需求深度研究 报告日期：2025.07.02 报告作者： 黄涛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880515090001 王楠 瑀 ( 研究助理 ) ，登记编号：S 0880123060041 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 从全社会用电量的结构变化看用电核心产业变迁，经济对于电力的影响在快速削弱 。过去二十年来，二产 用电（主要是制造业）是拉动电力需求增长的核心，由于制造业与经济的强相关性，也造成了市场对于经 济与电力需求强相关的固有概念。但我们观察到电力消费弹性系数（用电量增速/GDP增速）在2018年以 后快速从历史均值的1左右提升至1.3-1.4，背后反映的是用电结构正在发生里程碑式的变化，三产（主要 是新能源车充换电、AI等）及城乡居民用电（电气化率提升）在2024年已经占到边际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that changes in downstream channel operations are catalyzing industry reshuffling, and the wave of intelligentization is expected to further expand the competitive advantages of leading brands [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading brands with strong capabilities in branding, channels, and manufacturing, which are likely to benefit from the rising concentration in the industry due to the wave of intelligentization [2]. - The demand for commercial fitness venues is contracting, although the long-term trend remains positive. Despite the effective control of the pandemic since 2023, the number of offline fitness venues in China has continued to decline, with a 13% drop to 117,000 venues compared to 2022. Fitness studios experienced the smallest decline at 7.36%, while general fitness venues saw the largest drop of 22% [2]. - The number of fitness members and the penetration rate of fitness enthusiasts have also been decreasing since peaking in 2021, with the number of fitness members falling to below 70 million and the coverage rate dropping to under 5% by 2023 [2]. - However, from a long-term perspective, with stable growth in disposable income and an increasing pursuit of high-quality living standards, downstream demand is expected to maintain steady growth [2]. Market Analysis - China's manufacturing advantages are prominent, and the export market for fitness training equipment is substantial. According to customs data, China's exports of treadmills and other fitness training equipment grew rapidly in 2020 and 2021, with treadmill exports reaching 11.12 billion yuan and exports of general sports, gymnastics, or competitive goods totaling 20.79 billion yuan in 2021. The total export value of other fitness and rehabilitation equipment was 45.85 billion yuan [3]. - Although there was a decline in these export figures in 2022, a recovery trend was observed in 2023. Overall, the domestic fitness equipment industry has achieved comparative advantages in production capacity and cost through industrial cluster effects, effectively opening up export markets [3]. Competitive Landscape - AI-enabled products are expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading brands in the industry [4].

报告导读： 固态电池是下一代高性能电池的发展方向，短期氧化物半固态电池落地放量， 长期硫化物全固态电池前景广阔，材料端高弹性，设备端高确定性。 投资建议： 我们认为固态电池凭借着在安全性、能量密度等方面的优势，将成为未来高性能电池重点的发 展方向，在消费电池、新能源汽车、低空等领域有着广阔的市场空间。固态电池较现有电池在部分材料与 设备环节存在较大差异，其兴起将给新型材料和设备带来庞大的增量市场。前瞻布局固态电池及关键材料 与设备的企业受益。 固态电池是未来高性能电池的重要发展方向。 固态电池在安全性、能量密度等方面有着颠覆性优势，顺应 市场需求，并在政策刺激下加速发展。当前主要分化出了两条主要路线，短期来看氧化物半固态路线相对 成熟，和现有电池体系设备兼容度较高，已产业化落地，有望放量。但由于氧化物固态电解质存在离子电 导率较低的缺陷，众多企业布局了潜力更大的硫化物全固态路线。 材料端：与现有体系存在较大差异的新型材料具有高弹性。 正极的选择为有更大理论比容量的高镍三元及 富锂锰基，适配固态电池体系的高能量密度特性。负极的迭代方向为硅基负极和锂金属负极，进一步推升 能量密度。固态电池技术路线或冲击传统隔膜产 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the rising demand expectations for AI are driving the sales of low-dielectric cloth, alleviating concerns about long-term oversupply of certain products, while the high-end electronic cloth market is expected to maintain a stable and strong supply-demand balance [1][2]. - The AI demand expectation curve has been reshaped since May 2025, driven by the interlinked prosperity across various segments of the AI industry chain, including increased capital expenditure by cloud service providers and significant growth in token computing power usage [1]. - The technology upgrade path for low-dielectric cloth products is clear, with advancements focusing on faster and lower-loss signal transmission, which is expected to mitigate medium- to long-term oversupply concerns [2]. Group 2 - The core companies in the electronic cloth sector have implemented price increases, with an average price rise of 0.3 yuan per meter reported in March 2025, and the average price in June 2025 reaching 4.1 yuan per meter, indicating effective price adjustments [2]. - The demand for low-dielectric products is expected to support the stability of mainstream electronic cloth prices, with predictions of a strong performance as the market enters the peak season [2].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for rare earth elements (REE) is primarily driven by the growth of the electric vehicle (EV) sector, with price fluctuations closely linked to this demand [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Since 2020, the demand for new energy vehicles has been a core driving force for rare earths, with price trends reflecting the growth rates of this sector [1]. - In 2024, the demand for rare earth magnetic materials from China's new energy vehicles and wind power installations is projected to reach 63,000 tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic demand [2]. - The domestic supply of rare earths is undergoing significant consolidation, leading to a more optimized supply structure, while overseas resources remain underdeveloped [1][2]. Market Phases - The rare earth sector is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase of its market cycle, characterized by price recovery and increased valuations [3]. - The current market phase is marked by slow upward movement in prices, with expectations of further increases due to seasonal demand from the EV sector and overseas restocking [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for rare earths is expected to maintain high growth rates, particularly from the new energy sector, which will support the overall demand for magnetic materials [2]. - The potential for humanoid robots to drive demand for neodymium-iron-boron is significant, with an estimated requirement of 20,000 tons for 5 million units [2].

每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 代币化：货币、金融的历 史性变革 ——全球货币变局研究九 需求环比下降，总库存由降转升。 上周（本报告中的上周均指2025年6月23日至6月27日当周）五大品种钢材表观消费量879.85万吨，环比下降4.33万吨； 其中，建材表观消费量305.18万吨，环比下降2.71万吨；板材表观消费量574.67万吨，环比下降1.62万吨。上周五大品种钢材产量为880.99万吨，环比上 升12.48万吨；总库存为1340.03万吨，环比上升1.14万吨，维持近年同期最低位水平。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.82%，环比持平；高炉产能利用率 为90.83%，环比上升0.04个百分点；电炉开工率为61.54%，环比持平；电炉产能利用率为52.36%，环比下降0.09个百分点。短期来看，行业已进入传统 淡季阶段，我们预期钢铁需求将维持震荡趋弱态势，总库存或逐步转入累库通道。 盈利率环比持平。 上周45港进口铁矿库存13930万吨，环比升36万吨，维持偏高位水平。上周螺纹模拟平均吨毛利145.6元/吨，环比降20.6元/吨，热卷模 拟平均吨毛利91. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of the end of June 2025, the signals for stocks, bonds, and gold markets for July 2025 are positive, negative, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment forecast for Q3 suggests inflation, with both credit spreads and term spreads signaling a narrowing trend [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to June 2025 is 86.40%, with an excess return of 40.53%. The factor signal for June 2025 was positive, and the Wind All A monthly return was 4.74% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) may lead to significant changes in the global monetary and financial systems, potentially creating a parallel decentralized system alongside the current centralized one, similar to the impact of AI on the global economy [1] Group 1: Monetary System - The essence of money is a "social consensus" and a "recording tool" that facilitates the exchange of labor and goods, with its value being largely dependent on public trust and recognition [4][5] - The formation of social consensus around a currency requires its scarcity to be maintained; excessive issuance can lead to inflation, undermining trust in the currency [6][7] - Legal tender serves as a centralized recording tool, relying on government trust to maintain its value and scarcity [7] Group 2: Stablecoins - In the context of increasing distrust in centralized monetary systems, stablecoins have emerged as a decentralized alternative, leveraging blockchain technology to create a shared, immutable ledger [10][11] - Stablecoins, particularly those backed by fiat currencies, dominate the market, accounting for 99% of the stablecoin market share since 2014, and can be viewed as digital representations of cash [11][12] - The rise of stablecoins may lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary system, breaking down national borders and allowing for a more fluid exchange of value across different economies [12][13] Group 3: Real World Assets (RWA) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, allowing for decentralized trading and ownership of assets like stocks and bonds, similar to asset-backed securities [16][17] - The development of RWA could create a new financial market that operates parallel to traditional centralized markets, enabling direct wealth management on the blockchain without reverting to fiat currencies [17][18] - RWA can also enhance the monetary system by allowing tokenized assets to be used as currency for transactions, thereby expanding the definition of what can be considered money [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's proposed drug pricing policies on the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that while there are significant threats, the short-term effects may be limited due to existing structural challenges in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Current Situation - U.S. pharmaceutical spending is at a high level, with per capita drug spending reaching $1,564 in 2022, significantly higher than other developed countries. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2022 was 6.2% [1]. - The increase in drug prices is primarily driven by innovative drugs, which have long-term pricing above inflation, while generic drugs continue to decrease in price. The complex pricing system supports the stability of high prices for innovative drugs [1]. - The U.S. pharmaceutical trade deficit is expanding, with imports projected at $213 billion and a deficit of $118.6 billion in 2024. Ireland has become a major source of this deficit due to tax advantages [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Trump's proposal for a "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) pricing policy aims to anchor U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices in developed countries, potentially reducing prices by 30%-80%. However, legal complexities may hinder its implementation, and the focus will likely remain on reforms within the Medicare framework [2]. - The Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) system is identified as a structural monopoly that drives up drug prices, with rebate percentages for chronic diseases exceeding 50% and some reaching 80%. The top three PBMs control 80% of prescriptions, leading to a highly concentrated market [3]. - Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on European drugs aim to encourage domestic manufacturing, but the high costs and long construction timelines for U.S. production facilities may limit the effectiveness of this strategy in the short term [3].