Group 1: Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is showing strong performance, with top brands like MaiFuDi and FriegaTe leading sales during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The growth of the pet economy in China is notable, with domestic brands demonstrating strong innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Feed Industry - The feed production in China is experiencing significant growth, with April 2025 data showing a production of 27.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The recovery of pig stocks and high levels of poultry farming are expected to drive feed industry growth, alongside overseas expansion by major feed companies [3] Group 3: Agriculture - Recent drought conditions in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are affecting wheat production, with 40% of counties experiencing severe drought [4] - Grain prices are on the rise, with corn prices reaching 2375 RMB/ton and wheat prices at 2468 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, indicating a favorable environment for planting profitability [4]

Funding Market - The large banks' lending scale rapidly increased in the first half of last week but declined after the reserve requirement ratio cut took effect [1] - The overall funding market cooled down in the past week, with net borrowing amounts turning negative for major borrowers and net lending amounts rising for major lenders [1] - The total repo balance in the interbank market increased, while the leverage ratio in the interbank bond market remained stable [1] Primary Market - The issuance heat in the primary market showed divergence, with one 10-year government bond, two 10-year policy bank bonds, and one 10-year other policy financial bond issued in the past week [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for government bonds and policy bank bonds decreased, while it increased for other policy financial bonds [1] - The price spread between primary and secondary markets narrowed for government and policy bank bonds, while it widened for other policy financial bonds [1] Secondary Market - The overall heat in the secondary market improved, with an increase in the turnover rate of ultra-long bonds and stronger buying interest for short-term bonds [2] - The total borrowing volume of bonds increased, and the proportion of active bonds rose [2] - Major buyers increased net purchases of short and medium-term bonds while reducing net purchases of long and ultra-long bonds [2] Wealth Management and Fund Scale - Since May, the growth of wealth management scale has been weaker than historical averages, with a cumulative increase of 164.4 billion yuan as of May 18 [3] - The fund scale (net asset value) increased by 83.2 billion yuan in May, with equity and bond funds increasing by 56.1 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan respectively [3] - The issuance of new bond funds saw a significant rise compared to the previous week [3]

报告导读： 5月以来主题交易热度小幅回升，港口海运相关主题大涨，科技类主题边际 转弱。上市公司并购重组政策优化落地，国务院做强国内大循环工作推进会强调深挖潜 力提振消费。推荐：AI智能体/具身智能/并购重组/内需消费。 主题温度计：港口海运相关主题大涨，科技类主题边际转弱。 5 月 12 日 -5 月 16 日热点主题日均成交 额平均 4.73 亿元，日均换手率 3.25% ， 5 月以来交易热度小幅回升。热点主题结构上科技主题边际走 弱，军工信息化、卫星互联网、航发等军工相关主题回调，电力、黄金相关主题走弱；关税谈判催化下的 港口、海运类主题大涨，内需相关的动保、宠物经济和离境退税主题走强。上市公司并购重组政策优化有 望提振各参会与主体积极性，国务院做强国内大循环工作推进会强调深挖潜力提振消费，而人工智能、机 器人等新兴科技领域增联催化不断，看好增量政策与产业增长势能共振的主题方向。 主题一： AI 智能体。 AI 智能体公司 Manus 开放普通用户注册，阿里 AI 助手 " 心流 " 上线高级研究功 能，字节跳动发布 Agent 产品 " 扣子空间 " ，百度推出智能体 " 心响 " 。 AI Agen ...

报告导读： 4月，虽然外部不确定性提升，但在政策承托下国内经济仍有韧性。 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。关税变化使得外需短期有一定回落，不过国内需求在政策支撑下仍有 一定韧性。 生产、消费增速虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持较高增速，其中新兴行业生产、政策利好型消费 均有亮眼表现。投资方面虽然各项增速均有回落，但基建和制造业投资增速也保持较高水平。 下一阶段，外需扰动或有减弱，内需有待政策继续发力。 5 月关税局势缓和后，外需短期有一定回升，这 对国内生产、投资等有一定利好。内需方面，我们期待消费和地产相关政策继续加码扩围，对内需形成更 强支撑。 风险提示： 外部需求不确定性加剧。 文章来源 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural growth driven by new consumption trends, highlighting the resonance of channel and category innovation in boosting the performance of consumer goods [2][3]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption represents a structural dividend, with channel and category innovations driving growth. The retail efficiency is improving, and the younger demographic is increasingly contributing to consumption [2]. - The consumer landscape is evolving with a clear shift towards new channels and product categories, driven by regional differentiation in consumer groups and rising demands for diverse products [2]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Alcohol Industry - The consumer goods sector is favored for new consumption and high growth potential, while the liquor industry is seen as seeking a bottom but showing significant configuration value [3]. - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of inventory cycle adjustment, with most companies relying on market share gains in core markets and the performance of mid-tier and lower-tier products [3]. - The article notes that the attributes of liquor products are being reshaped, enhancing their fast-moving consumer goods characteristics, which will benefit companies that adapt to FMCG operational logic [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The liquor sector shows configuration value due to potential dividends, with leading companies having dividend yields close to or exceeding 3% [3]. - Dynamic valuations in the liquor sector have reverted to historically low levels, with potential catalysts such as stabilization in housing prices and domestic demand policies [3]. - Stock selection should prioritize companies with strong market share logic [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that 2025 is expected to be the year of large-scale commercialization of AI Agents, supported by recent developments from major companies like ByteDance and Google [1][4]. - ByteDance has launched multiple upgraded models, including the DataAgent and Seedance 1.0 lite, which enhance video generation capabilities and multi-modal understanding, indicating steady progress in AI technology and its commercialization [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised regulations to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, which is anticipated to invigorate the market and accelerate the integration of the computer sector driven by digital transformation needs [3]. Group 2 - Google DeepMind introduced AlphaEvolve, a general-purpose AI system capable of autonomously generating and improving algorithmic code, showcasing advancements in AI that can solve significant mathematical and computational challenges [4]. - The modifications in CSRC regulations include mechanisms for phased payment in asset acquisitions and simplified review processes, which are expected to enhance the activity in the mergers and acquisitions market [3].

报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消 费复苏"双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权 益市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 本文摘自：2025年5月19日发布的 轮动加速，主线掘金 顾一格 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120006 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 转债市场快速触底反弹，当前估值性价比优于4月初水平。 全市场转债价格中位数从4月初的120.94元快 速下跌至4月7日的115元，随后修复至120.13元。平价在90-110元的转债的加权平均转股溢价率先被动 拉升，后随着正股上涨逐步消化，目前为21.07%，略低于4月初的水平（22.44%）。高平价转债（平价 在130元以上）的加权平均转股溢价率较4月初明显压缩，偏债转债的估值水平也已逼近4月初水平，转债 整体性价比较4月初更高。考虑到5-6月权益市场有望继续走出升势，转债市场信用风险相对可控，低利 率背景下转债仍有较多的刚性需求。当前平衡和偏股型转债估值相对合理，跟涨弹性较好。 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和， ...

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请 详见完 整版报告。 【 食品饮料】首选新消费、高成长——食品饮料行业周报 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 固收】轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的冲击基本修复。 4 月 3 日以来，权益 市场上演了"关税冲击 - 缓和预期交易 - 协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。 4 月初中美关税摩擦升级，投资 者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击， 4 月 7 日上证指数单日下跌 7.34% ，转债相对抗 跌，随后市场逐步反弹。 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议，中美第一阶段的关税摩擦告一段 落。截至 5 月 16 日，上证指数、沪深 300 、万得全 A 指数已超过 4 月 2 日的水平，中证 1000 也已 修复至接近 4 月 2 日的水平。 回顾 2018-2019 年中美贸易摩擦，双方交锋的中后期权益市场对于利空的 ...

大力推动中长期资金入市，利好增量资金流入银行板块。 一是受险资权益类投资比例上限上调、长期投资 试点扩围，以及年内可能仍有降准降息使无风险利率进一步下行等影响，或有更多长线资金流入红利板 块。另一是公募基金改革对基金考核模式的指引，或带动产品行业配比向业绩基准收敛。 25Q1 末主动型 公募基金重仓银行股仓位仅 3.25% ，而沪深 300 和中证 800 指数中银行业权重分别为 13.67% 和 10.76% ，大幅欠配，配比再平衡将带动资金积极流入板块。 个股方面建议两条投资策略： 一是优质地区城商行，主因规模高增份额提升、负债端成本改善空间更大可 支撑息差、资产质量安全边际厚、净利润保持一定增速确定性高。二是自 24Q4 起已呈现出存贷款修复迹 象、指数中权重占比和基金仓位占比差距较大的股份行。 报告导读： 4月金融数据略低于预期但已成过去式，5月一揽子金融政策和中美贸易关系缓 和均利好经济预期回升向好。监管大力推动中长期资金入市，利好增量资金流入银行股。 4 月信贷增量小月更小，社融和 M2 低基数下增速回升。 4 月新增信贷仅 2800 亿元，结构上以票据贴现 为主，符合开门红后信贷小月的季节性特征 ...