报告导读： 4月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策，关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入：增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ，但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ，相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下， 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后，经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看，增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外，出口退税增速虽然边际回落， 但是表现尚可，或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来，随着关税局势缓和，外需或边际回升。此外， 非税收入增速持续回落，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出：增速平稳，保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ，其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ，相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看，目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出，财政政策仍较为积极，对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金：收入回升，支出提速。 2025 年 ...

报告导读： SLG赛道因其高用户付费、长生命周期、全球化适配性，具备结构性投资机 会。中国厂商在出海领域的快速发展，以及SLG轻量化、融合化的转型，为其带来新的 发展机会，建议关注拥有成熟产品矩阵、全球化发行能力及融合玩法储备的优质公司 。 建议关注拥有成熟产品矩阵、全球化发行能力及融合玩法储备的优质公司。 在当前全球手游市场增速放缓 的背景下， SLG 赛道因其高用户付费、长生命周期、全球化适配性，仍具备结构性投资机会。 SLG 厂家 切入玩法创新赛道， SLG+ 模拟经营等玩法吸引轻度用户，降低买量成本，副玩法买量通过塔防、肉鸽等 机制提升转化率； SLG 与小游戏的结合已经涌现成功案例，未来有望进一步成为赛道主流发展方向之 一。头部厂商具备长线运营能力和技术壁垒，叠加技术降本能力和本地化深度，护城河较为稳固，成熟产 品有望为厂商持续提供盈利支撑。 热门单品表现强势，国内厂商出海优势显著。 SLG （ Simulation Game ，策略游戏）具有长生命周 期、高用户付费（ ARPU ）和强社交粘性等特点。 2024 年全球策略游戏以 175 亿美元收入位居手游品 类榜首，中国厂商发行的《 Last W ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, leading to a favorable outlook for the military industry as national defense investments are expected to increase [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense and military index declined by 1.61% from May 11 to May 16, underperforming the market by 2.37 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors [2]. Group 2: Recent Developments - China successfully launched the Communication Technology Test Satellite No. 19 on May 13, 2023, using the Long March 3B rocket, with the satellite entering its designated orbit successfully [2]. - On May 14, 2023, China launched a space computing satellite constellation using the Long March 2D rocket, marking the 576th flight of the Long March series [3]. - The U.S. State Department authorized a $1.4 billion arms sale to the UAE, including military helicopters and equipment, ahead of President Trump's visit [2]. - President Trump announced plans to develop the F-55 fighter jet, which will feature a dual-engine design, and to upgrade existing F-22 jets to "Super" F-22s [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The increasing complexity of the international environment necessitates advanced aircraft and missile systems, as well as efficient support equipment and reliable communication systems, highlighting the importance of focusing on aerospace and satellite internet sectors [3].

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia is enhancing its AI sovereignty by deploying Ascend GPUs and localizing servers with models like Deepseek, which is expected to accelerate the overseas expansion of domestic computing power hardware and software architectures [1][2]. Group 1: Deployment of Ascend Chips - Malaysia's Ministry of Communications announced the advancement of its AI infrastructure strategy, supported by Ascend GPUs and the Deepseek model [2]. - The first sovereign generative AI server, AlterMatic DT250AI, outperforms the industry average by 20% and is already adopted by various government agencies [2]. - Skyvast and Liyang Chips plan to deploy 3,000 advanced GPUs across multiple infrastructure areas by 2026, supported by Malaysia's AI system integration ecosystem [2]. Group 2: Hardware and Software Architecture Upgrades - The Ascend 910C single card has a BF16 computing power of approximately 780 TFLOPS, nearing 80% of the H100's performance [3]. - The CloudMatrix 384 super node can achieve a single card decode throughput of 1920 tokens/s under a single user 20 TPS condition, comparable to H100 performance [3]. - MindSpore 2.6 fully supports the training and inference processes for models like Deepseek V3/R1 MoE, enhancing usability for mainstream SOTA models [3]. Group 3: Catalysts for Growth - The performance upgrades of domestic computing power chips and breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing processes are key catalysts for growth in the sector [4].

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 今 日 报 告 精 粹 01、 宏观：外部扰动，仍有韧性 02、 策略：并购重组政策优化，提振新兴科技增长势能 03、 固收：大行融出在降准生效后反而回落 04、 农业：展望宠物618，关注国内品牌布局 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 需求环比上升，总库存由累库重新恢复降势。 上周（本报告中的上周均指 2025 年 5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日当周）五大品种钢材表观消费量为 913.76 万吨，环比上升 68.56 万吨。上周五大品种钢材产量为 868.35 万吨，环比下降 5.82 万吨；总库存为 1430.66 万吨，环比下降 45.41 万吨，维持近年同期最 低位水平。上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率为 84.15% ，环比下降 0.47 个百分点；高炉产能利用率为 91.76% ，环比下降 0.33 个百分点；电炉开工率为 64.74 % ，环比上升 1.28 个百分点；电炉产能利 用率为 52.92% ，环比上升 1.03 个百分点。上周五一假期的短期影响逐渐消退，钢铁需求环比回升，总 库存由累库重新恢复降势。短期展 ...

重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

Group 1: Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is showing strong performance, with top brands like MaiFuDi and FriegaTe leading sales during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The growth of the pet economy in China is notable, with domestic brands demonstrating strong innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Feed Industry - The feed production in China is experiencing significant growth, with April 2025 data showing a production of 27.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The recovery of pig stocks and high levels of poultry farming are expected to drive feed industry growth, alongside overseas expansion by major feed companies [3] Group 3: Agriculture - Recent drought conditions in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are affecting wheat production, with 40% of counties experiencing severe drought [4] - Grain prices are on the rise, with corn prices reaching 2375 RMB/ton and wheat prices at 2468 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, indicating a favorable environment for planting profitability [4]

Funding Market - The large banks' lending scale rapidly increased in the first half of last week but declined after the reserve requirement ratio cut took effect [1] - The overall funding market cooled down in the past week, with net borrowing amounts turning negative for major borrowers and net lending amounts rising for major lenders [1] - The total repo balance in the interbank market increased, while the leverage ratio in the interbank bond market remained stable [1] Primary Market - The issuance heat in the primary market showed divergence, with one 10-year government bond, two 10-year policy bank bonds, and one 10-year other policy financial bond issued in the past week [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for government bonds and policy bank bonds decreased, while it increased for other policy financial bonds [1] - The price spread between primary and secondary markets narrowed for government and policy bank bonds, while it widened for other policy financial bonds [1] Secondary Market - The overall heat in the secondary market improved, with an increase in the turnover rate of ultra-long bonds and stronger buying interest for short-term bonds [2] - The total borrowing volume of bonds increased, and the proportion of active bonds rose [2] - Major buyers increased net purchases of short and medium-term bonds while reducing net purchases of long and ultra-long bonds [2] Wealth Management and Fund Scale - Since May, the growth of wealth management scale has been weaker than historical averages, with a cumulative increase of 164.4 billion yuan as of May 18 [3] - The fund scale (net asset value) increased by 83.2 billion yuan in May, with equity and bond funds increasing by 56.1 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan respectively [3] - The issuance of new bond funds saw a significant rise compared to the previous week [3]

报告导读： 5月以来主题交易热度小幅回升，港口海运相关主题大涨，科技类主题边际 转弱。上市公司并购重组政策优化落地，国务院做强国内大循环工作推进会强调深挖潜 力提振消费。推荐：AI智能体/具身智能/并购重组/内需消费。 主题温度计：港口海运相关主题大涨，科技类主题边际转弱。 5 月 12 日 -5 月 16 日热点主题日均成交 额平均 4.73 亿元，日均换手率 3.25% ， 5 月以来交易热度小幅回升。热点主题结构上科技主题边际走 弱，军工信息化、卫星互联网、航发等军工相关主题回调，电力、黄金相关主题走弱；关税谈判催化下的 港口、海运类主题大涨，内需相关的动保、宠物经济和离境退税主题走强。上市公司并购重组政策优化有 望提振各参会与主体积极性，国务院做强国内大循环工作推进会强调深挖潜力提振消费，而人工智能、机 器人等新兴科技领域增联催化不断，看好增量政策与产业增长势能共振的主题方向。 主题一： AI 智能体。 AI 智能体公司 Manus 开放普通用户注册，阿里 AI 助手 " 心流 " 上线高级研究功 能，字节跳动发布 Agent 产品 " 扣子空间 " ，百度推出智能体 " 心响 " 。 AI Agen ...