Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market continues to show weakness, with a 13.2% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, including a 9.0% drop in first-tier cities, 1.9% in second-tier cities, and a significant 42.8% in third-tier cities [2] - Construction demand is being dragged down by weak real estate performance, although there is a slight recovery in rebar demand and steel prices [3] Group 2: Consumer Goods and Durables - Passenger car sales have seen a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, indicating a positive trend in durable goods consumption supported by subsidy policies [2] - Air conditioning production for July is projected to decline by 1.9% year-on-year, with domestic production up by 8.1% and export production down by 16.3% [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed performance, with an increase in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt facilities, suggesting some resilience in construction demand [3] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded slightly due to increased daily consumption by power plants and tight supply conditions [3] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - There has been a noticeable increase in passenger transport demand, with metro passenger volume up by 4.4% year-on-year and domestic flight operations increasing by 1.0% [4] - However, sea freight prices have declined, and postal express collection and delivery volumes have decreased [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the stock index has broken through key levels and still has some upward potential in the short term, but the focus should shift from short-term index movements to structural performance and growth themes [1][2][3] - The article highlights that the decline in the risk-free interest rate in China is a significant driver for the stock market's upward movement, as it reduces the opportunity cost for investors and encourages capital inflow into equities [3] - It notes that the economic outlook is undergoing a positive transformation, driven by supply-side innovations and macro policies that support consumption and long-term growth, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market's valuation logic for 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in the discount rate, which will facilitate new capital entering the market [1][2] - The article mentions that the expectation of the Chinese yuan stabilizing or slightly appreciating is a crucial factor for the revaluation of Chinese assets, further supporting the market's positive outlook [1] - It discusses the historical context of the stock market's performance, noting that significant market rallies have typically coincided with declines in risk-free interest rates, which have occurred twice in the past decade and are expected to happen again [3]

Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry - Google has signed a historic power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to buy 200MW of electricity from its fusion power project in Virginia, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of nuclear fusion energy [3][5] - The ARC project, located in Chesterfield County, Virginia, aims to be the world's first commercial fusion power plant, expected to generate 400MW of fusion power by the early 2030s, sufficient to power 150,000 homes or large industrial sites [3][4] - CFS, established in 2018, has raised over $2 billion and is one of North America's largest nuclear fusion commercialization companies, with ongoing projects including SPARC, which aims to achieve net energy gain by 2027 [4][5] Group 2: Market Recognition and Trends - The nuclear fusion sector is gaining recognition, with major tech companies like Google and Microsoft entering into power purchase agreements, indicating a growing acceptance and maturity of the nuclear fusion supply chain [5] - Microsoft's previous agreement with Helion Energy to provide at least 50MW of fusion power by 2029 further illustrates the accelerating commercialization of nuclear fusion technology [5]

Core Viewpoint - Google's signing of the largest fusion power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) marks a significant step towards the commercialization of nuclear fusion, indicating growing market recognition of the fusion industry [1][3]. Group 1: Agreement Details - On June 30, 2023, CFS announced that Alphabet, Google's parent company, will purchase 200MW of power from its fusion project in Chesterfield County, Virginia [1]. - The ARC project aims to build the world's first commercial fusion power plant, expected to be operational in the early 2030s, with a lifespan of 20 years or more, generating 400MW of fusion power sufficient to supply 150,000 households [1]. Group 2: CFS's Development Plans - CFS, established in 2018, has raised over $2 billion and is one of North America's largest nuclear fusion commercialization companies [2]. - In addition to the ARC project, CFS is developing the SPARC project, which aims to achieve net energy gain (Q>1) and provide critical knowledge for the ARC project [2]. - SPARC is designed with a plasma major radius of 1.85m, a minor radius of 0.57m, a plasma current of 8.7MA, and a maximum auxiliary heating power of 25MW, with a magnetic field strength of 12.2T [2]. Group 3: Market Recognition - Prior to Google's agreement, Microsoft had already committed to purchasing fusion power, with Helion Energy promising to deliver at least 50MW by 2029 [3]. - The increasing maturity of upstream equipment in the fusion industry and the acceleration of commercialization are evident, as major tech companies like Google and Microsoft sign power purchase agreements, indicating widespread market acceptance of fusion energy [3].

投资建议： 全固态电池产业化进程加速，看好固态电池产业链相关公司。 固态电池产业迭代正式开启，从 0 到 1 加速。 2025 年以来，固态电池产业化进展持续加速： 2 月，比 亚迪 CTO 孙华军在第二届中国全固态电池创新发展高峰论坛透露已经比亚迪开始启动固态电池产业化的 可行性验证，涵盖关键材料技术攻坚、电芯系统开发以及产线建设，计划于 2027 年左右启动全固态电池 批量示范装车应用， 2030 年后实现大规模上车应用； 5 月，国轩高科宣布已建成全固态电池中试线， 设计产能 0.2GWh ，电芯能量密度达 350Wh/kg ，并已开启装车测试。我们认为，头部企业在固态电池 端的"落子"有望吸引更多企业"入局"，产品技术迭代迎来持续向好。 车端、材料端、设备端协同共振，产业化进程加速。 目前我国固态电池发展形成"车企 + 电池厂"协同的 特点，如上汽集团与清陶能源。 材料端从电池到正负极、固态电解质、集流体等主材，以及粘结剂、添加 剂等辅材，均在加速研发与改进。固态电池专用设备方面，包括干法电极、等静压等设备厂商进展顺利。 综合多家车企、电池厂发布的固态电池量产计划，我们预计 2027 年全固态电池或迎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of equity proprietary trading in the context of the changing market environment, highlighting the transition towards the "OCI+" strategy as a new starting point for brokers' proprietary trading business [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Evolution of Equity Proprietary Trading - Equity proprietary trading has undergone two significant phases of transformation: the exploration of multi-strategy trading around 2010, and the recent shift towards high-dividend OCI strategies since 2022 [1]. - Major brokers like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities were early adopters of multi-strategy and quantitative models to achieve stable and neutral returns [1]. - The adoption of high-dividend OCI strategies has become a consensus in the industry, with brokers increasingly diversifying their asset allocations [1]. Group 2: Current Trends and Strategies - As of Q1 2025, the total investment in other equity instruments by listed brokers reached 506.4 billion, with an estimated 200 to 250 billion attributed to high-dividend OCI strategies, representing over 50% of the industry's equity allocation [2]. - The acceleration in adopting high-dividend OCI strategies is driven by changes in market conditions and regulatory constraints on proprietary trading, making it a favorable option for brokers to enhance their balance sheets and yield [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The new mission for equity proprietary trading is to achieve high-quality balance sheet expansion, with "OCI+" expected to be a new starting point [3]. - If brokers allocate OCI strategies to 40% of their net capital, the potential incremental growth could reach 497.2 billion, providing stable income through coupon revenue [3]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading brokers with significant competitive advantages and considering smaller brokers with strong equity proprietary trading flexibility [3].

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (科创债) since May, highlighting the potential for a corresponding ETF and the benefits of expanding the sample of bonds included in the index [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance and Market Dynamics - From May 7 to June 24, a total of 372 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, amounting to a total issuance scale of 577.67 billion yuan, with 382.23 billion yuan from the interbank market and 195.45 billion yuan from exchanges [1]. - The new issuances are primarily from central state-owned enterprises, with longer maturities and an increase in financial institution issuances [1]. - Five private venture capital institutions have successfully issued science and technology innovation bonds, totaling 1.35 billion yuan, with longer maturities concentrated in the 5-10 year range and flexible redemption terms [1]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Valuation - The newly issued science and technology innovation bonds generally have lower coupon rates, with approximately 72.54% of them being issued at lower valuations compared to similar non-innovation bonds with a remaining maturity of less than one year [2]. - The yield and spread of science and technology innovation bonds show significant differences based on the issuer type, including banks, brokerages, and other industry entities [2]. Group 3: ETF Development and Market Strategy - The science and technology innovation bond ETF is being concentrated in high-grade bonds, with the CSI and SSE AAA bond indices having durations close to 4 years and sample sizes of 1,033.5 billion yuan and 894.6 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The article suggests that bonds included in both the science and technology innovation bond index and the credit bond benchmark index may experience similar market rotation characteristics, benefiting from the expansion of credit bond ETFs and the issuance of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [3]. - Non-sample science and technology innovation bonds are also expected to benefit from ETF expansion opportunities, particularly those from larger issuers that are not included in the index [3].

Group 1: Xiaomi's Ecosystem Launch - Xiaomi held a comprehensive ecosystem launch event on June 26, introducing several new products including the MIX Flip 2, Pad 7S Pro, K80 Supreme Edition, and the YU7 car model [3] - The YU7 car model achieved over 240,000 locked orders within 18 hours of its launch, with prices ranging from 253,500 to 329,900 yuan [3] - Other notable products included AI glasses priced from 1,999 yuan, and various mobile devices and home appliances [3] Group 2: Tesla's Robotaxi Pilot - Tesla launched its Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, on June 22, deploying around 10 refurbished Model Y vehicles with strict operational limitations [4] - The service operates from 6 AM to midnight, with a unified fare of $4.20, and includes a front-row safety operator for each vehicle [4] - Tesla aims for a fleet utilization rate exceeding 40 hours per week, with projected profit margins of 70%-80%, and envisions achieving a level of safety in autonomous driving that is ten times safer than human drivers [4] Group 3: Bilibili's 16th Anniversary - Bilibili celebrated its 16th anniversary on June 26, reporting over 107 million daily active users and 368 million monthly active users as of Q1 2025 [5] - The platform's average user age is 26, with over 70% of users being college students, indicating strong user engagement and retention [5] - In 2024, over 3.1 million content creators on Bilibili are expected to generate revenue, with a 28% increase in monthly average transaction volume and a 122% increase in monthly average charging revenue [5]