腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 660,257 | 737,770 | 807,370 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.21% | 9.82% | 8.41% | 11.74% | 9.43% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 100,017 | 152,784 | 200,097 | 229,061 | 257,041 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.32% | 52.76% | 30.97% | 14.47% | 12.22% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 188,243 | 115,216 | 194,073 | 226,083 | 250,091 | | 同比增长 (%) | -16.27% | -38.79% | 68.44% | 16.49% | 10.62% | | 每股收益（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The projected net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 66 billion, 76 billion, and 91 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 28.4 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.35 billion CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 6.64 billion CNY, marking a 35% increase year-on-year [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to rise to 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.7% in 2024, increasing from 9.5% in 2023 [12] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue for Q4 is reported at 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - Social entertainment service revenue for Q4 is 16.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [9] - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to reach 310 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% [9] User Metrics - The monthly active users (MAU) for Q4 stand at 560 million, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year [9] - The monthly paying users (MPU) reached 120 million, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year [9] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is reported at 11 CNY per month, with expectations for it to rise to 11.3 CNY in Q1 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.52 CNY based on a projected PB of 3.05 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing performance growth driven by capacity expansion and product structure optimization, benefiting from an improving industry outlook [1][27]. - The semiconductor market is showing strong growth, with a significant increase in demand for foundry services, particularly in China, which is expected to continue [8][45]. - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product mix, particularly in the automotive chip market, which is seeing robust demand [8][57]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.27 CNY, 0.40 CNY, and 0.59 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a significant recovery in net profit expected [4][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 92.49 billion CNY in 2024 to 143.91 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% [4][2]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve to 25.6% in 2024, up from previous levels, indicating a recovery in profitability [31][4]. Company Overview - The company is a leading 12-inch wafer foundry in China, established in 2015, with a total planned investment exceeding 100 billion CNY and a designed capacity of 320,000 wafers per month [13][16]. - It specializes in semiconductor wafer manufacturing services, offering various process nodes from 150nm to 55nm, with ongoing advancements in technology [13][16]. - The company has seen a significant increase in its market share, ranking third among domestic foundries and ninth globally as of Q4 2024 [14][13]. Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with the foundry market expected to reach 139.4 billion USD by 2024, driven by advancements in technologies such as 5G and AI [45][51]. - The domestic integrated circuit market in China is also expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of 1.43 trillion CNY in 2024, indicating strong growth potential for local foundries [64][71]. - The demand for automotive chips is increasing, with the company actively participating in the automotive chip market and forming alliances to enhance its ecosystem [8][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance has exceeded expectations, with a solid advantage in funding costs [1] - The forecast for the company's net profit growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is adjusted to 5.8%, 7.5%, and 8.3% respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 11.85, 12.70, and 13.62 yuan [3] - The target price is set at 7.43 yuan per share, reflecting a 10% valuation premium over the average PB of comparable companies [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported operating income of 27,956 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%. The operating profit was 12,194 million yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10,902 million yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year [5] - The projected operating income for 2024A is 28,261 million yuan, with a slight growth of 1.1%. The operating profit is expected to rise to 12,848 million yuan, a growth of 5.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 11,513 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [5] - The company’s total assets and loan growth rates as of the end of 2024 are expected to be 5.1% and 5.6% respectively, indicating a positive trend in asset expansion [10] Valuation Metrics - The current A-share price corresponds to PB ratios of 0.51, 0.48, and 0.44 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The average PB of comparable companies for 2025 is adjusted to 0.57, leading to a target PB of 0.63 for the company [3] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 6.43 in 2023A to 4.92 in 2027E, indicating an improving valuation outlook [5]

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 1-2 月销售较去年全年降幅收窄，但较去年 年末降幅扩大 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | | 1.第 | 12 周市场行情回顾（2025.03.15~2025.03.21） 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 第 12 周行业指数表现 4 | | | 1.2 第 12 周地产板块个股表现 4 | | | 2.行业及公司要闻回顾（2025.03.15~2025.03.21） 4 | | | 2.1 行业一 ...

经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合财报数据、区域信贷需求，适度上调贷款增速等假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归 母净利润同比增速为 5.8%/7.5%/8.3%，BVPS 为 11.85/12.70/13.62 元（25/26 年前 预测值 11.75/12.62 元），当前 A 股股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.51/0.48/0.44 倍。 可比公司 25 年 PB 调整平均值为 0.57 倍，维持 10%的估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.63 倍 PB，目标价 7.43 元 /股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 业绩改善超预期，负债成本优势巩固 ——渝农商行 2024 年年报点评 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,956 | 28,261 | 28,628 | 29,603 | 31,147 | | 同比增长 (%) | -3.6% | 1.1% | 1. ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 24-26年每股净资产分别为 10.41、11.32、11.91元，根据可比公司 25 年平均 3.05 倍 PB 估值水平，给予 34.52 元目标价，首次给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求不及预期；产品结构改善不及预期；技术开发进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 10,051 | 7,244 | 9,249 | 11,743 | 14,391 | | 同比增长 (%) | 85% | -28% | 28% | 27% | 23% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,142 | 116 | 483 | 834 | 1,252 | | 同比增长 (%) | 82% | -96% | 318% | 73% | 50% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 3,045 | 212 | 532 | 798 | 1,192 | | 同比增长 (%) | 76% | -93% | ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 1-2 月销售较去年全年降幅收窄，但较去年 年末降幅扩大 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | | 两会再提止跌回稳目标 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 1-2 月百强房企拿地总额实现两位数增长 | 2025-03-04 | | 1 月一线城市房价环比继续上行 | 2025-02-24 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 一个舒缓式反弹 ——3 月 FOMC 会议点评 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 再通胀和财政平衡：聊聊近期海外市场行 | 2025-02-18 | | --- | --- | | 情背后的两个宏观叙事：——海外札记 | | | 20250216 | ...

| | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年03月24日） | 17.04 元 | | 目标价格 | 24.03 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.8/7.47 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 68,543/58,335 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 11,680 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 新能源汽车产业链 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.27 | 13.07 | 20 | 85.83 | | 相对表现% | -2.72 | 13.95 | 21.23 | 74.83 | | 沪深 300% | -1.55 | -0.88 | -1.23 | 11 | 中科电气 300035.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 盈利逐步改善，海外市场持续拓展 2023-12-29 比亚迪发布快充新技术，公司有望积极受 益 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于负极材料价格 ...