宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 基本面改善已有呈现，供需两端均有亮点 ——2 月经济数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 结构上的积极变化有待政策进一步巩固— —2025 年 2 月通胀数据点评 2025-03-12 是否真的有"抢出口"？——1-2 月进出口 点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the market by 0.18 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.21%, underperforming the market by 1.38 percentage points [1][13] - The report highlights that the prices of double-sided paper have slightly increased, while packaging paper prices have decreased [39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.76%, ranking 13th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 0.21% [1][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are furniture, packaging printing, cultural products, and paper, with respective increases of 2.66%, 2.30%, 0.55%, and 0.21% [1][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price increased by 27 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [25] - The average market price for double-sided paper rose by 5 CNY/ton to 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices fell by 8 CNY/ton to 4310 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a mixed profitability among finished paper products, with double-sided paper profitability increasing by 1-18 CNY/ton, while white cardboard profitability decreased by 3-9 CNY/ton [49][51] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests that special paper companies typically experience profit expansion within six months after pulp price increases [3] - It also recommends companies like Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) in the specialty paper sector, as well as Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) in the food packaging paper segment [3]

本周双胶纸价格小幅上涨，包装纸价格下 跌 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/15） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 1.76%，跑赢大盘 0.18pct；造纸子板块上涨 0.21%， 跑输大盘 1.38pct。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 1.76%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 13 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块上涨 0.21%，跑输大盘 1.38pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别家具、包装印刷、文娱用品和造纸板块，分别上涨 2.66%、2.30%、 0.55%、0.21%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨，成本支撑下文化 纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078， 买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利 扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤股份(603733，买入)，中高端装饰原纸龙头华旺科 技(605377，买入)以及食品包装纸细分龙头五洲特 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的反 弹行情 ——策略周报 0316 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 2025-03-09 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5] Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on investment opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several others in the humanoid robot and technology supply chains [2][13][14][15]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 52% increase month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales of 3.539 million units, up 2% year-on-year [27]. Industry Developments - Figure AI launched its humanoid robot factory BotQ, with an initial production capacity of 12,000 units per year, expected to expand to 100,000 units over the next four years. The factory's automation level will increase as the number of humanoid robots on the production line grows, laying the foundation for large-scale production. Additionally, the report highlights the launch of new models from various companies, including the Wanjie M8 and M9, which have received strong pre-order interest [11][12][38].

Figure 发布人形机器人生产线，继续关注 机器人及华为产业链公司 ——汽车行业周报（0310-0316） 核心观点 ⚫ 2 月乘用车整体销量同比表现亮眼，新能源乘用车渗透率快速提升。据乘联会，2 月 全国狭义乘用车批发/零售销量 176.7/138.6 万辆，同比增长 33.8%/26.0%，环比 1 月减少 16.0%/22.8%，2 月乘用车批发和出口销量创历史新高。全国新能源乘用车 批发/零售销量 83.0/68.6 万辆，同比增长 79.6%/79.7%，环比 1 月减少 6.7%/7.8%；2 月新能源乘用车批发/零售渗透率 47.0%/49.5%，同比提升 12.0/15.0 个百分点，环比提升 4.7/8.0 个百分点。受益于报废更新政策及置换更新补贴政策支 持、智驾平权拉动需求等因素，2 月乘用车市场同比表现较好，新能源渗透率快速 提升。出口市场同比稳步增长，2 月乘用车出口（含整车与 CKD）34.9 万辆，同比 增长 11%，环比下降 8%。 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注人形机器人链汽零投资机会，相关公司有望盈利和估值双 升；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 风格表现监控 ——东方因子周报 ⚫ 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间，最近一周，单季 ROE、一个月反转等因子表现较好， 而非流动性冲击、三个月换手等因子表现较差。最近一月，一个月反转、单季 ROA 等因子表现较好，而 BP、非流动性冲击等因子表现较差。 ⚫ 以中证 500 指数为选股空间，最近一周，预期 EPTTM、一个月反转等因子表现较 好，而单季营收同比增速、分析师认可度等因子表现较差。最近一月，高管薪酬、 一年动量等因子表现较好，而六个月 UMR、三个月换手等因子表现较差。 ⚫ 以中证 800 指数为选股空间，最近一周，一个月反转、预期 EPTTM 等因子表现较 好，而非流动性冲击、一个月换手等因子表现较差。最近一月，一个月反转、 PB_ROE_排序差等因子表现较好，而 BP、六个月 UMR 等因子表现较差。 ⚫ 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间，最近一周，一个月反转、预期 EPTTM 等因子表现较 好，而标准化预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 127.19 billion, CNY 141.03 billion, and CNY 154.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 15.22 billion, CNY 19.05 billion, and CNY 23.42 billion [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Video Generation Model Development - The video generation model is entering a rapid development phase, with Kuaishou's Keling technology being a top player globally, particularly in core evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control [22][31]. - The DiT architecture is identified as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou quickly achieving technological breakthroughs [22][23]. Section 2: Kuaishou's Competitive Position - Keling's technological capabilities and data resource advantages position it favorably for future developments in the AI-driven content community [8][19]. - Kuaishou's strategic focus and unified organizational structure enhance its execution efficiency [8][19]. Section 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and daily average usage time maintained at high levels [8][9]. - The e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market, while online marketing services are projected to increase by 15.6% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's technology in multi-modal video generation is globally leading, particularly with its Keling model, which is positioned as a top competitor in the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous technological iteration in video generation models and Kuaishou's competitive advantages in this space [4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its e-commerce GMV, projected to increase by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou are CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report highlights a stable financial outlook with a low to mid-range valuation, providing a good safety margin for investors [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies the DiT architecture as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou's Keling model being a leading player in this domain [22][23]. - Kuaishou's Keling model is noted for its superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control, making it a top competitor globally [8][30]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and average daily usage time maintained at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report anticipates a transition in Kuaishou's business model from PUGC tools to multi-scenario empowerment, indicating a shift towards broader user engagement and monetization strategies [19][22].