Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 7.7 CNY for 2025, based on a 13x PE valuation [2][9][4]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from 4,438 million CNY in 2023 to 6,061 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.2% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 404 million CNY in 2023 to 558 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase in profit margins [2][8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Vietnam and other regions, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the global market [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 4,438 million CNY - 2024: 4,841 million CNY (growth of 9.1%) - 2025: 5,019 million CNY (growth of 3.7%) - 2026: 5,552 million CNY (growth of 10.6%) - 2027: 6,061 million CNY (growth of 9.2%) [2][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 404 million CNY - 2024: 428 million CNY (growth of 6.0%) - 2025: 433 million CNY (growth of 1.0%) - 2026: 496 million CNY (growth of 14.6%) - 2027: 558 million CNY (growth of 12.5%) [2][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.55 CNY - 2024: 0.59 CNY - 2025: 0.59 CNY - 2026: 0.68 CNY - 2027: 0.76 CNY [2][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 18.6% in 2023 to 19.5% in 2027 - Net Margin: Expected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 9.2% in 2027 - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to stabilize around 12.0% by 2027 [2][11]. Industry Context - The company operates in the textile and apparel industry, which is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and sustainable products, aligning with the company's strategic initiatives [4][8]. - The report highlights the company's efforts in diversifying its product offerings and enhancing production efficiency, which are critical for maintaining competitiveness in a challenging market environment [8].

欢乐家 300997.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 零食渠道增量，利润率暂时承压 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报，下调 25 年收入、毛利率，上调 25 年费用率。公司 2025-2027 年 每股收益调整为 0.42、0.51、0.58 元（原预测 25 年为 0.75 元）。结合可比公司， 我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 40 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 16.80 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 To B 业务进展较慢风险、饮料业务竞争激烈风险、水果罐头动销不及预期风险、新工厂 产能利用率不及预期风险、原材料价格大幅上涨风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,923 | 1,855 | 2,054 | 2,308 | 2,547 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.5% | -3.5% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 377 | 199 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.92 CNY based on a 24x PE valuation for 2026 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown stability in its business operations in Q1, with a focus on expanding application scenarios for large models [1]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 4% to 92.5 billion CNY, while net profit is expected to decline by 15% to 12 billion CNY [10]. - The innovative business segment has seen a significant growth rate of 21%, contributing to 24% of total revenue [10]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.57 CNY, 1.83 CNY, and 2.12 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][11]. - Revenue is expected to reach 130.4 billion CNY by 2027, with a consistent growth rate of 12% from 2025 onwards [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 44% over the forecast period [4][10]. Business Performance - The company reported a 4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, amounting to 18.5 billion CNY, with a net profit growth of 6% to 2.04 billion CNY [10]. - The overseas business segment has shown resilience, with an 8% revenue increase to 26 billion CNY in 2024, and a gross margin of 46.1% [10]. Innovation and Technology - The company is leveraging large model technology to enhance product lines and expand application scenarios, significantly improving detection rates in various security applications [10]. - The innovative business, particularly in industrial IoT and smart logistics, is positioned as a leader in the domestic market [10]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 261.9 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 923.32 million shares [5]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 24.71 CNY to 35.52 CNY [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.6 in 2023 to 13.4 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation as earnings grow [4][11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.4 in 2023 to 2.3 in 2027, reflecting improved financial health [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 226.67 CNY [3][5] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 90.7 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 45% year-on-year increase [8] - The company significantly increased its R&D investment to approximately 2.45 billion CNY in 2024, a 94% increase compared to the previous year, driven by the rising demand for new equipment [8] - The company's contract liabilities surged by 235% to approximately 2.59 billion CNY by the end of 2024, indicating strong order expectations [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 120.49 billion CNY, 156.24 billion CNY, and 200.09 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 28% respectively [4][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24.33 billion CNY, 33.60 billion CNY, and 44.60 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 51%, 38%, and 33% respectively [3][9] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 42.3% to 44.3% over the forecast period, with a slight dip to 41.1% in 2024 due to structural changes in customer base [4][8] Equipment Sales and Market Position - The company experienced significant growth in etching equipment sales, with over 1,200 reaction chambers shipped in 2024, marking a historical high [8] - The company’s new deposition equipment has started contributing to revenue, with over 150 LPCVD reaction chambers shipped and approximately 476 million CNY in bulk orders received in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.81 CNY based on a 17X PE valuation for 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in precious metals, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in recent quarters. The 2024 annual revenue reached 19.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 790 million CNY, up 28.7% [7]. - The company benefits from a strong resource and industrial chain advantage, with mining rights for key resources and a complete industrial chain covering zinc, lead, and various precious metals, enhancing its market competitiveness [7]. - The dual drivers of zinc smelting and precious metals segments have demonstrated the company's resilience, with the precious metals segment experiencing substantial revenue growth due to rising prices [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 22.44 billion CNY, 23.67 billion CNY, and 25.12 billion CNY, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% from 2024 [2][12]. - **Net Profit**: Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1 billion CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.24 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 27.2% in 2025 [2][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 0.93 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.15 CNY by 2027 [2][12]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.0% to 4.9% over the same period [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in precious metals, revitalizing its status as a long-standing lead-zinc enterprise [1] - The company reported a revenue of 19.76 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million yuan, up 28.7% year-on-year [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 277 million yuan, a substantial increase of 74.07% year-on-year [7] - The company benefits from resource and industry chain advantages, enhancing its market competitiveness [7] - The zinc smelting business and precious metals segment drive the company's performance resilience, with significant revenue growth in both sectors [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.93, 1.03, and 1.15 yuan respectively, with an upward revision from the previous estimate of 0.87 yuan for 2025 [2][8] - Revenue is expected to grow from 19.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.12 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.2% [3] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.9% over the same period [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.3 in 2024 to 9.7 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [3]

新增产能有序释放，新材料板块盈利增益 可期 ——甬金股份 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年年报，我们做出了下调公司冷轧不锈钢产品的售价、上调公司钛合 金、复合材料产品的销量、下调产品成本、小幅上调费用率等调整，预测公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益为 2.38、2.73、3.11 元（2025 年原预测值为 2.02 元）。根据可比 公司 2025 年 11X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 26.18 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓风险、公司新建项目产能释放或消化不及预期风险、公司钛合金、电 池专用外壳产品盈利水平波动风险、上游冶炼产能投放不及预期风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,874 | 41,861 | 48,946 | 53,990 | 58,608 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.8% | 5.0% | 16.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.63 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expanding its new projects and product categories, particularly focusing on the core components of robotics [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is accelerating its international expansion, with significant investments in new product development and production capacity [10]. - The establishment of a joint venture, Jiangsu Pacific Intelligent Joint Co., Ltd., aims to enhance the industrialization of core robotic components, leveraging partnerships with established technology firms [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,103 million CNY, with a projected decrease to 2,025 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,416 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 2,862 million CNY in 2026 and 3,336 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 238 million CNY in 2023 to 160 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 240 million CNY in 2025, 293 million CNY in 2026, and 349 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 25.5% in 2023, decreasing to 24.4% in 2024, and stabilizing around 24.5%-24.9% in the following years [4][10]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY respectively, reflecting a more conservative outlook compared to previous estimates [2][10]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to recover significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 49.2% compared to 2024 [4][10]. Market Comparison - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 29 times, indicating a favorable valuation for the company relative to its peers [2][11].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 东方战略周观察：对等关税冲击越南外向 型经济 研究结论 战略动向复盘：美国对等关税冲击越南外向型经济。2024 年越南向美国出口的商品价值 1195 亿美元，占出口总额 29.5%，出口到美国的 16 类商品出口额达到 10 亿美元或以 上。2025 年 1-2 月，越南对美国的出口额达到 195.6 亿美元，占全国出口总额的 30%， 与去年同期相比增长 16.5%。特朗普对等关税对越南征收 46%关税，高于多数东南亚国 家，越南政府已降低对美关税并向美国企业开放新的行业：主动下调 23 类进口商品关税 （部分税率低于美国对越关税）；推动采购 250 架波音客机、部分军用飞机及价值 60 亿 美元 LNG 等总计超 900 亿美元美国商品；为美国玉米、大豆、转基因饲料等 61 类农产 品开放市场。由副总理胡德福率领高级别代表团于 4 月 6 日至 14 日访问华盛顿，商谈关 税问题的回旋空间。 出口导向的越南经济受关税影响较大，由于国内货币宽松节奏较慢，仍存在一定降息空 间提升内需和投资的拉动效应，但需警惕外资流出和货币贬值压力。由于美方宣布豁免 智能手机、芯片等电子产品关税的规则， ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 再议供给压力及对资金面影响 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 利率方向回归下行后，幅度取决于资金： | 2025-04-14 | | --- | --- | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期： ...