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中裕科技(920694):新签4881万元钢衬耐磨管订单,期待新品与海外产能释放增量
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 23:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has signed a significant order worth 48.81 million yuan for steel-lined wear-resistant pipes, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth in 2026 [7] - The new product, steel-lined modified polyurethane wear-resistant pipes, has entered a growth phase, with applications in various mining and dredging scenarios [7] - The company is expanding its market presence in overseas regions such as the Middle East, South America, and Australia, with a focus on high-end markets [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady growth in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing over the years [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 599.27 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 910.32 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.56% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 104.83 million yuan in 2024, then recover to 165.31 million yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 18.79% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.79 yuan in 2024 to 1.25 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 26.65 in 2024 to 16.90 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [1]
公用事业行业跟踪周报:漳州核电2号机组投入商运,山东湖北两地首个绿电直连项目落地-20260112
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 13:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The commercial operation of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 commenced on January 1, 2026, completing the first phase of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power project, which is expected to provide approximately 60 billion kWh of clean electricity annually [4] - The first green electricity direct connection project in Shandong and Hubei has been approved, with a total scale of 345 MW of new energy facilities, including 75 MW of wind power and 270 MW of photovoltaic power [4] - The average national grid purchase price of electricity in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17 RMB per ton week-on-week, reaching 699 RMB per ton as of January 9, 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98% [4][43] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir showed a decrease in inflow by 6.3% and an increase in outflow by 7.2% as of January 9, 2026 [4][50] Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Consumption: In the first eleven months of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 9.46 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [12] - Power Generation: Cumulative power generation in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [22] - Installed Capacity: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [44] - Hydropower: The cumulative installed capacity of hydropower reached 440 million kW, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [54]
固收周观:股债跷跷板效应凸显,宽松基调下曲线陡峭(2026年第2期)
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 10:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026, the bond market experienced significant adjustments. The main reasons were that the central bank's open - market bond purchases in December 2025 were only 50 billion yuan, not increasing as expected, and the stock market had a strong start, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was the more important factor suppressing the bond market. It is expected that the allocation funds in the bond market will be diverted by the stock market. In the next week, the release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, while long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the 1.9% stage high, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][16][17] - Last week, gold in the cross - year market quickly rebounded to the previous high of $4,500 per ounce after a short - term plunge and is about to break through the previous high. The RMB exchange rate also had a short - term correction, but based on the expectation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in major global economies and their higher tendency of fiscal deficit monetization than China, the previous bullish view is continued. Crude oil is marginally bullish in terms of total demand and short - term bullish but long - term bearish in terms of total supply, and is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern [2] - In the medium - term thinking framework, the two - sector model of "an overheated technology sector + a cold traditional sector" should be continued. The growth engine shows structural characteristics, with monetary policy supporting the traditional sector and fiscal policy guiding the technology sector. The driving force of investment is greater than that of consumption, and domestic demand is more important than external demand, which is not limited to specific transitional economies [2][20] - The US unemployment rate in December 2026 slightly decreased, but new employment was lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls also decreased, and the labor market is gradually entering a low - speed equilibrium stage, which makes the Fed more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 24.4%, which is relatively low [4][21][26] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - **Analysis of bond market adjustment in the first week of 2026**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.8bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as the relaxation of bond fund redemption fee regulations, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the central bank's bond - buying volume, and market expectations all affected the bond market. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment were the central bank's bond - buying volume in December 2025 not meeting expectations and the strong start of the stock market [1][11][16] - **Analysis of future trends**: The release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.9%, investors can enter the market [1][16][17] 2. Summary of Domestic and Foreign Data 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From January 5 to 9, 2026, the net investment in open - market operations showed a large - scale net withdrawal in the early stage and a net investment in the later stage. The total amount of net investment was - 122.14 billion yuan [36] - **Interest rate data**: The money market interest rate decreased last week compared with the previous week. The issuance volume of interest - rate bonds last week was 918.813 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 697.556 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 221.257 billion yuan [37][38][41] 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity price data**: Steel prices generally rose, and the official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. The price of rebar rose by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc, lead, copper, and aluminum futures all increased to varying degrees [55] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance scale and type**: Last week, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 117.664 billion yuan, including 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 87.434 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 1 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 117.664 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [65] - **Issuing regions**: Three provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and two provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 29.23 billion yuan. From January 1 to last week, the total amount of local special refinancing special bonds issued nationwide was 2,202.521 billion yuan [69] - **Early redemption of urban investment bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds last week was 1.33 billion yuan, from Zhejiang and Gansu provinces. From November 15, 2024, to last week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds nationwide was 118.207 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [75][79] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Transaction volume and turnover rate**: The stock of local government bonds last week was 54.73 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 310.211 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 7Y [82] - **Yield to maturity**: The yield to maturity of local government bonds decreased across the board last week [87] 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for this Month - Not elaborated in detail, only a chart of the issuance plan is provided [88] 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total issuance and net financing amount**: Last week, 336 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 269.892 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.743 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 131.149 billion yuan, an increase of 192.849 billion yuan compared with the previous week [88] - **Issuance by type**: The net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 28.226 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 102.923 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 38.817 billion yuan, that of medium - term notes was 47.129 billion yuan, that of enterprise bonds was - 2.881 billion yuan, that of corporate bonds was 45.019 billion yuan, and that of private placement notes was 3.065 billion yuan [90][93] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.43bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 11.93bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 58.69bp [103] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds last week was 558.53 billion yuan, with short - term financing bills having a trading volume of 159.816 billion yuan, medium - term notes having a trading volume of 294.315 billion yuan, enterprise bonds having a trading volume of 11.128 billion yuan, corporate bonds having a trading volume of 38.844 billion yuan, and private placement notes having a trading volume of 54.428 billion yuan [103] 4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield to maturity of state - owned development bonds increased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [104][105][106] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally showed a differentiated trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [108][109][113] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [115][119][123] 4.7 Trading Activity - The most actively traded credit bonds last week were mainly from large - scale enterprises such as Yili and Huijin. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, daily consumption, and materials [127] 4.8 Issuer's Rating Changes - Not elaborated in detail, only a table of issuer's rating or outlook improvement is provided [128]
仙乐健康(300791):笃志力行,驭变成势
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 09:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xianle Health [1] Core Insights - Xianle Health is a leading CDMO enterprise in the health supplement industry, focusing on the research and manufacturing of health and functional foods. The company has a strong R&D capability and has established a global supply chain through acquisitions [8][13][14] - The health supplement industry is experiencing a new consumption cycle, with significant growth potential in China. The global health supplement market is projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2028 [44][49] - The report highlights the company's revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 18% from 2012 to 2024. The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for health supplements and the expansion of its overseas markets [23][28] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xianle Health has become a top player in the health supplement CDMO sector, with a market share of 8% as of 2023. The company has a comprehensive production capability across various forms of health supplements [14][23] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the largest shareholder holding 42.60% of the shares, ensuring stability in management [17] 2. Health Supplement Industry - The health supplement market is characterized by regional differentiation, with North America, China, and Europe being the largest markets. The industry is expected to grow significantly, particularly in China, where the market size could double from 250 billion yuan to 520 billion yuan by 2028 [44][49] - The CDMO segment is expected to benefit from the fragmented nature of the health supplement industry, with a projected market size of 220-250 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a rate of 7-9% from 2024 to 2028 [60] 3. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 45.22 billion yuan, 50.44 billion yuan, and 56.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.53 billion yuan, 4.05 billion yuan, and 4.77 billion yuan [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.82 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.55 yuan for 2025-2027, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 30x, 19x, and 16x [1][8]
文远知行-W(00800):立足国内发力海外,RoboX商业化落地龙头
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 09:26
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the commercialization of RoboTaxi, with a clear path towards profitability as it benefits from policy openings and technological advancements [7][8]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in total revenue from 554.64 million yuan in 2025 to 1,987.24 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 110.26% [1]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of 5.4 billion yuan, which supports its research and development efforts and expansion plans [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Analysis - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 401.84 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 23.83%. However, it is expected to rebound with a growth of 53.58% in 2025 and 70.41% in 2026 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve from a loss of 2.517 billion yuan in 2024 to a loss of 1.055 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.45 yuan in 2024 to -1.03 yuan in 2027 [1]. Industry Overview - The RoboTaxi market is anticipated to reach a scale of 200 billion yuan by 2030, capturing approximately 36% of the B-end shared mobility market [7][8]. - The company is the only entity globally to have obtained autonomous driving licenses in eight countries, showcasing its leading position in the industry [7]. - The report highlights the significant reduction in costs associated with autonomous driving technology, with the BOM cost dropping below 300,000 yuan, enhancing the profitability outlook for RoboTaxi operations [7][8]. Technological Edge - The company utilizes a multi-sensor fusion approach, integrating various technologies to enhance safety and reliability in autonomous driving [7][8]. - The development of the WeRideOne platform is central to the company's competitive advantage, enabling efficient autonomous driving solutions across multiple scenarios [7][8]. Market Positioning - The company has established a robust presence in both domestic and international markets, with successful operations in major cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and various locations in the Middle East [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing market share in developed regions, where the potential for RoboTaxi services is significantly higher compared to China [7][8].
整车主线周报:12月新能源批发符合预期,看好26年景气度向上-20260112
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 09:10
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector, anticipating a recovery in demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies. Key players include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, focusing on high-end electric vehicles and established export leaders [23][24]. - The heavy truck segment is projected to see a slight increase in domestic sales in 2026, with expectations of 800,000 to 850,000 units sold, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth. Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [28]. - The bus market is expected to benefit from the continuation of subsidy policies, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold in 2026, representing a 5% increase year-on-year. Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [27]. - The motorcycle sector is forecasted to grow by 14% in total sales in 2026, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles. Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report emphasizes a recovery in the passenger vehicle market in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key stocks to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [23][24]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, heavy truck wholesale sales reached 1.14 million units, a 26% increase year-on-year. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, with a 3% growth expectation. Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [28]. Buses - The bus market is projected to see a slight increase in sales due to favorable policies, with an expected 40,000 units sold in 2026. Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [27]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to grow by 14% in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles seeing a 31% increase. Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24].
环保行业跟踪周报:重视SAF扩产周期中废油脂资源增值,长江大保护千亿资金加码管网建设与生态修复-20260112
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 08:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) expansion cycle and the value addition of waste oil resources, alongside significant funding for ecological restoration and pipeline construction in the Yangtze River protection initiative [1][12] - The 2026 strategy for the environmental sector focuses on a dual approach of value and growth resonance, driven by carbon neutrality goals [20] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The SAF market is projected to see a significant increase in demand, with EU mandates requiring a gradual rise in SAF usage from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, translating to a demand of 3.662 million tons by 2050 [12] - Domestic SAF production capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million tons per year by the end of 2025, with planned capacity of 4.4 million tons [12] - The report highlights a 50%+ increase in SAF prices compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening supply situation [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in waste oil resource utilization, such as Shanhigh Environmental and Longkun Technology, as the value of waste oil is expected to rise due to increased SAF demand [14] - Companies in the water treatment sector, such as BWS and Energy Conservation Guozhen, are recommended due to the ongoing construction of sewage pipelines and ecological restoration projects funded by over 100 billion yuan [19] Market Performance - The report notes a 64.01% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate of 18.6% [26] - The average price of biodiesel has decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton, with a corresponding drop in profitability [35] - Lithium battery recycling profitability is improving, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 18.1% week-on-week [36]
燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报:气温预计回升至正常水平,欧美气价回落-20260112
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 08:22
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 气温预计回升至正常水平,欧美气价回落 2026 年 01 月 12 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 行业走势 -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 2025/1/13 2025/5/13 2025/9/10 2026/1/8 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《气温预期持续偏低美国气价上涨、 库存提取欧洲气价上涨,重视商业航 天特燃特气价值长期提升》 2026-01-05 《气温预期上调美国气价回落、库存 提取欧洲气价微增,25M11 国内用气 需求边际改善》 2025-12-29 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书:S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书:S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪:气温预计回升至正常水平,欧美气价回落。截至 2026/01/09, 美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM ...
港股周观点:开门红下的暗流-20260112
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 08:22
Group 1 - The report indicates that global markets mostly rose during the week of January 5-9, 2026, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.9% [1] - The healthcare sector led gains with a 10.1% increase, while telecommunications and information technology sectors faced declines of 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively [1] - The report highlights a significant inflow of southbound funds, totaling 32.65 billion HKD, although its proportion of total trading volume decreased from 51% to 45% [1][2] Group 2 - Investors show strong consensus on which Hong Kong stocks to buy, but there is a lack of consensus regarding potential short-term risks [3] - The report notes that expectations for a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could impact the rebound of Hong Kong stocks, with predictions suggesting only 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 [3] - Key risk factors include the potential ruling on the IEEPA Act and upcoming earnings reports from US tech companies, which could influence market sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - The report recommends maintaining a barbell strategy for overall portfolio allocation, suggesting a focus on value dividends as a base and aggressive positions in AI technology, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Upcoming events to watch include the JPM Healthcare Conference and key economic data releases from China and the US, which could impact market dynamics [5]
联瑞转债:高端电子材料细分赛道领跑者
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-12 07:49
证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260112 联瑞转债:高端电子材料细分赛道领跑者 2026 年 01 月 12 日 [关键词: Table_Tag#新产品、新技术、新客户 ] [Table_Summary] 事件 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书:S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书:S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《转债策略建议控回撤仍为第一要 务》 2026-01-11 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 (20260105-20260109)》 2026-01-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 联瑞转债(118064.SH)于 2026 年 1 月 8 日开始网上申购:总发行规 模为 6.95 亿元,扣除发行费用后的募集资金净额用于高性能高速基 板用超纯球形粉体材料项目、高导热高纯球形粉体材料项目建设,并 部分用于补充流动资金。 ◼ 当前债底估值为 98.11 元,YTM 为 2.21%。联瑞转债存续期为 6 年,大公 国际资 ...