Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tax restoration on bond pricing, indicating that new bonds will see an increase in yield while older bonds may experience a slight decrease in yield due to investor expectations [2] - The performance of various sector funds has shown a rotation, with pharmaceutical-themed funds regaining the highest net value growth, while cyclical funds have seen significant pullbacks [3] - The liquidity outlook for August suggests an increase in credit issuance and government bond supply, with market interest rates under upward pressure [4] Sector Summaries Automotive - In July, the delivery performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers showed divergence, with Li Auto and NIO experiencing a month-on-month decline, while XPeng achieved a historical sales high [5] - The report anticipates a potential turning point in the commercialization scale of Robotaxi, favoring companies with technological, ecological, and operational advantages [5] Real Estate - The top 100 real estate companies reported a year-on-year decline in sales, with July's total sales amounting to 226.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.2% decrease [6] - The cumulative sales from January to July also showed a decline of 13.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [6] Steel - The July PMI for new export orders was reported at 47.10%, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [9] - The report suggests that steel sector profitability may recover to historical average levels, supported by regulatory measures [9] Copper - The report notes that the operating rate of cable enterprises in July hit a near six-year low, with expectations for copper prices to rise in Q4 due to recovering demand [10] - The ongoing tension in supply and demand dynamics is expected to influence copper pricing positively in the latter part of the year [10] Construction Materials - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a significant drop in average daily melting volume required to achieve sales balance [8] - The report indicates that achieving production balance will be challenging even with coordinated production cuts [8] Chemical Industry - The report discusses the performance of Xin'an Chemical, noting a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to low prices of key products [11] - Despite current pressures, the company is expected to recover profitability as downstream demand improves [11] Coal - China Shenhua's asset injection is seen as a positive development, with expectations for continued expansion and scale effects [12] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remain stable despite the anticipated asset injection [12] Building Materials - Oriental Yuhong reported a revenue decline in H1 2025, but its strong domestic position and overseas expansion are expected to drive future growth [13] - The company is projected to recover from the industry bottom, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] Internet Media - Mingyuan Cloud is focusing on optimizing its product layout and enhancing AI functionalities, with revenue forecasts adjusted downward due to slow recovery in real estate demand [15] - The company aims to achieve breakeven through cost control and improved product offerings [15] Education Services - TAL Education reported a significant revenue increase in FY26Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 38.8% [16] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by strong performance in offline classes and new product launches [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The real estate industry is in a relatively smooth adjustment phase, with a significant decline in the company's contracted project amounts in 24H2, leading to a forecasted revenue drop of 14.8% year-on-year for 1H25, amounting to 610 million RMB [1] - The company is focusing on the commercialization of AI products, with expectations for AI product contract amounts in 2025 to exceed previous estimates, potentially reaching 60 million RMB [3] - The company has implemented strong cost control measures, which are expected to accelerate the path to breakeven, despite a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 [4] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.435 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, with an adjusted net loss of 40 million RMB, an improvement from a loss of 170 million RMB in 2023 [2] - The breakdown of revenue shows a decline in customer relationship management revenue by 9.2% to 859 million RMB, while asset management and operations revenue grew by 14.2% to 100 million RMB [2] AI Product Development - The company has launched multiple AI+ marketing products, with a total contract amount of approximately 28 million RMB for AI products in 2024, covering around 1,000 real estate projects [3] - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's AI digital marketing products has been successful, with daily inference usage exceeding 120,000 [3] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 1.291 billion RMB and 1.243 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.25 billion RMB [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 57 million RMB and 108 million RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 175 million RMB [4]

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of various fund categories, including equity, bond, and ESG funds, during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025[1][2][3] - It highlights the rotation in sector-themed funds, with pharmaceutical-themed funds leading in net value growth at 3.30%, while cyclical-themed funds experienced significant pullbacks at -3.87%[2][39] - Passive index funds, particularly those focused on communication and innovative drugs, showed superior performance, with median net value changes of -1.59% for equity passive index funds[2][45] - The ETF market saw significant outflows in domestic equity ETFs, with a net outflow of 369.37 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 245.42 billion yuan[3][54] - ESG funds were analyzed, with a total of 213 ESG funds in the market, amounting to a combined scale of 1,359.83 billion yuan, dominated by environmental-themed funds[4][77] - The report also includes high-frequency monitoring of active equity fund positions, showing a slight decrease of 0.18 percentage points in positions compared to the previous week[3][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - July sales showed a decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with total sales of 10,280 units, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to July increased by 98.6% to 77,000 units [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 14.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net loss of 6.95 billion yuan, an increase of 28.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 150.8% year-on-year to 3.77 billion yuan, with a net loss of 9.5 billion yuan, narrowing by 6.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new high-end models, particularly the Xiangjie S9T, which is anticipated to enhance its market position in the high-end segment [2][3]. Sales and Financial Performance - The company’s automotive sales for 2024 are projected to increase by 23.53% to 114,000 units, with the extreme fox brand expected to see a significant rise of 169.91% to 81,000 units [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is expected to improve, driven by strong sales of the extreme fox brand and the upcoming launch of new models equipped with advanced technology [2][3]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its electric vehicle technology capabilities and support the development of multiple new energy vehicle models [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are set at 32.32 billion yuan and 57.73 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net losses of 4.81 billion yuan and 2.05 billion yuan [5][12]. - The report anticipates a return to profitability by 2027, with a projected net profit of 870 million yuan [3][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on dual-brand development with Xiangjie and Extreme Fox to enhance its market penetration in the mid-to-high-end segments [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and brand positioning in improving the company's competitive edge in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery potential in the steel sector's profitability, driven by regulatory support for the industry and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity [4]. - The July PMI new export orders for China stood at 47.10%, indicating a slight decline, while the steel PMI new orders index reached a nine-month high [3][39]. - The liquidity indicators show a negative growth rate difference between M1 and M2, which may impact market dynamics [10][18]. Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][18]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July 2025 was 46.09, down 6.16% from the previous month [10][18]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index in July reached 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3 percentage points [39]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from the previous week [39]. Industrial Products Chain - The July PMI new orders index for industrial products was 49.40%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices declining by 0.19%, 1.43%, and 1.49% respectively [2]. Subsector Performance - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2011, while graphite electrode prices remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton [2]. - The average profit for electrolytic aluminum was 2,926 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10.26% month-on-month [2]. Price Comparison - The price ratio between medium-thick plates and rebar is at a relatively high level, with the rebar price at 3,350 CNY/ton, down 2.90% [3][39]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 150 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Export Chain - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1,232.29 points, down 2.30% from the previous week [3]. - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The overall steel industry gross profit was reported at 305 CNY/ton, down 18.6% week-on-week [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $575 million for FY26Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $31.28 million, up 174.4% year-on-year [1]. - The learning services segment, particularly small class courses, continues to be the largest revenue contributor, with a retention rate of approximately 80% [1]. - Deferred revenue at the end of FY26Q1 reached $968 million, reflecting a 50.8% year-on-year growth, indicating strong demand resilience [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding the number of learning centers to drive revenue growth, although growth rates are expected to slow compared to FY25 due to increasing base figures [1]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY26Q1, the company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of $42.05 million, a 42.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.9%, up 3.1 percentage points [3]. - The operating profit margin for FY26Q1 was 2.5%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 4.4%, up 4.2 percentage points [3]. - The company expects continued strong revenue growth in FY26Q2, which is anticipated to be a peak business season [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of $144 million, $234 million, and $349 million for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $0.71, $1.15, and $1.72 [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are 45x, 28x, and 19x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as profitability improves [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The direct and main impact of resuming taxation is to increase the yield of new bonds and slightly lower the yield of old bonds. The pricing of new bonds depends largely on the investor structure, while the pricing of old bonds depends on investors' expectations of new bond yields [2][9]. - For 10Y treasury bonds, the current yield on August 1st is 1.71%. Bank self - operating investors with a 6% VAT rate have an equivalent yield of 1.83% after tax resumption, a 12bp increase; asset management accounts with a 3% tax rate have an equivalent yield of 1.77%, a 6bp increase [2][9]. - The reasonable spread range between new and old bonds is (6bp, 12bp). When the spread is below 6bp, all investors tend to sell new bonds and buy old bonds; when it is above 12bp, all investors have the motivation to buy new bonds and sell old bonds; when it is between 6bp and 12bp, 6% - tax - rate investors tend to sell new bonds and buy old bonds, while 3% - tax - rate investors tend to buy new bonds and sell old bonds [2][10]. - If there are only 3% - or 6% - tax - rate investors, the yield increase is borne by new bonds, and old bonds remain at the current level. If both types of investors exist, the increase in new bond yields is hard to satisfy both, and 6% - tax - rate investors' tendency to buy old bonds will push old bond yields down [3][13]. - Old bond yields below 1.71% are pushed by 6% - tax - rate investors. Only when their proportion is moderate can they push old bond yields down from 1.71%. The theoretical limit of old bond yields is new bond yields - 12bp, and the actual downward range of old bond yields is very limited [4][15]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. How to Price New and Old Bonds after Resuming Taxation? - On August 1st, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8th, 2025, VAT on the interest income of newly issued national, local government, and financial bonds will be resumed [1][9]. - Taking 10Y treasury bonds as an example, different tax - rate investors have different equivalent yields after tax resumption. Bank self - operating investors with a 6% VAT rate have an equivalent yield of 1.83%, a 12bp increase; asset management accounts with a 3% tax rate have an equivalent yield of 1.77%, a 6bp increase [2][9]. - Four scenarios are established to study the dynamic relationship between new and old bond yields. In scenarios where only one type of tax - rate investor exists, old bond yields remain unchanged. In scenarios where both types exist, 6% - tax - rate investors' behavior may push old bond yields down [12][14]. - The theoretical limit of old bond yields is new bond yields - 12bp, and the actual downward range of old bond yields is limited, as shown in the graph of the relationship between new and old bond yields [15][16].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？ ——流动性观察第 114 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 6 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 月流动性展望——流动性观察第 110 期 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 109 期 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a complete industrial chain in the silicon-based new materials sector, covering upstream silicon mining, organic silicon monomer synthesis, and downstream product manufacturing, making it the most comprehensive player in the domestic organic silicon industry [2]. - The company has established a fully integrated development model in crop protection, offering a complete range of herbicides and other agricultural products, and is a leader in global herbicide varieties [3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, establishing multiple overseas production bases and expanding its marketing network to over 130 countries and regions [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a registered capital of 15 million yuan for its new subsidiary, Zhejiang Xin'an Yushi Silicon Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on synthetic materials and high-quality synthetic rubber sales [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 283 million yuan (down 29.7%), 472 million yuan (down 12.6%), and 684 million yuan, respectively [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.59 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5% [5]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 96 in 2023 to 20 in 2027, reflecting an anticipated recovery in earnings [13]. Market Position - The company is the only domestic player with full coverage of downstream terminal products, offering over 3,000 types of products across various applications [2]. - It has established partnerships with several Fortune 500 companies, enhancing its market presence and credibility [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant downward revision in the US non-farm employment data for June, with a total adjustment of 90,000 jobs, primarily affecting government, leisure, and construction sectors, indicating potential economic instability due to tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation, with a possibility of 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year as trade negotiations progress [3] - The market is anticipated to enter a new upward phase in the second half of the year, with a focus on cyclical sectors and emerging industries [4][5] Group 2 - The FDCA industry is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for PEF as a superior alternative to PET, with recommended investments in companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, benefiting sectors like photovoltaic materials, with a focus on price elasticity in the supply chain [14][16] - The coal industry is seeing improved price expectations due to recent policy measures, with recommendations for investments in major coal companies [18] Group 3 - Qingdao Bank reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 16%, indicating strong performance and asset quality [20] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintains a "buy" rating based on long-term competitive advantages [23] - Huaneng International's second-quarter net profit increased by 50% year-on-year, driven by lower fuel costs and expansion in renewable energy [24] Group 4 - Ningde Times reported a 33.73% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with strong market positioning in lithium batteries and new product developments [25] - Tencent is expected to see strong growth in core gaming and advertising revenues, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [26] - Meta Platforms exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, with plans for increased investment in AI infrastructure [27]