[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20250309 人民币兑美元大幅升值，中美利差稳定 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 03/25 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 许洁 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | 021-38003625 | | | xujie@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:基于潘行长 ...

图 1：多模态多尺度股价预测模型 数据来源：广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2024 年 11 月 18 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 股价预测之多模态多尺度 深度学习研究报告 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]安宁宁 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈原文 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080003 | | 0755-82797057 | | chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，陈原文并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 基于卷积神经网络的股价走 | 2023-04-06 | | 势 AI 识别与分类 | | | 基于深度学习的高频数据因 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic explosion-proof electrical industry, continuously exploring new products and operational models while maintaining high levels of research and development investment [8] - The explosion-proof electrical market is expected to expand, with a projected CAGR of 11.32% from 2017 to 2025, reaching a market size of 12.4 billion yuan by 2025 [8] - The company has developed the SCS Safety Control System, which represents an innovative breakthrough in the intelligent development of explosion-proof technology [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 507 million yuan, 601 million yuan, and 708 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a target price of 26.69 yuan per share based on a 15x valuation of net profit for 2025 [8] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 337.53 million shares and a market capitalization of 6.727 billion yuan [3] - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 14.97 yuan and 23.68 yuan over the past year [3] 2. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.043 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.789 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 20.0% in 2024 [7] - The company's EBITDA is expected to increase from 570 million yuan in 2023 to 867 million yuan in 2026 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 23.8% in 2023 to 27.6% in 2026 [7] 3. Market Dynamics - The demand for explosion-proof electrical products is driven by the rapid development of industries such as oil, chemicals, and mining, with the market size expected to grow significantly [44][48] - The company has a comprehensive range of explosion-proof products, including those for mining and industrial applications, which are crucial for safety in hazardous environments [44][45] 4. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment, reaching 142 million yuan in 2023, with a rising R&D expense ratio [22][29] - The R&D team consists of 561 members, accounting for 22.8% of the workforce, covering various technical fields [26][29] 5. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and has established a marketing strategy that includes both direct sales and partnerships with international EPC companies [8][20] - The SCS Safety Control System has been successfully implemented in various enterprises, enhancing customer engagement and service offerings [69]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of intelligent driving technology is being driven by BYD, which plans to invest 100 billion yuan in AI and automotive integration [7][10] - The penetration of intelligent driving configurations into mid-to-low-end models is becoming increasingly evident, with significant sales in the 10-15 million yuan price range [19][20] - The intelligent driving industry chain has vast growth potential, encompassing perception, transmission, and computing segments [23][24] Summary by Sections 1. BYD's Push for Intelligent Driving - BYD is set to unveil its advanced intelligent driving system "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" on February 10, 2025, aiming to lower the barriers for intelligent driving technology [7][10] - The company has committed to investing 100 billion yuan in AI and automotive technology [10] 2. Penetration into Mid-to-Low-End Models - Intelligent driving solutions are increasingly becoming a core consideration in vehicle pricing, with configurations now available in models priced between 10-15 million yuan [19][20] - Data from the China Automobile Association indicates that in December 2024, the sales proportions for electric vehicles in the 5-10 million, 10-15 million, and 15-20 million price segments were 19.9%, 35.7%, and 10.9% respectively [20] 3. Growth Potential of the Intelligent Driving Industry Chain - The intelligent driving hardware industry chain consists of three main components: perception (cameras and LiDAR), transmission (chips and connectors), and computing (domain controllers and intelligent driving chips) [23][24] - The demand for automotive cameras is expected to rise significantly as intelligent driving penetration increases, with estimates suggesting that high-level intelligent driving systems will require 8-11 cameras per vehicle [30][32] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on automotive CIS chip manufacturers, packaging firms like Jingfang Technology, LiDAR manufacturers such as Suteng Juchuang and Hesai, and high-speed connector manufacturers like Dalian Technology [48]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the software and services industry or the specific company analyzed Core Insights - FY25Q2 revenue growth slowed to +12.3% YoY, with net profit increasing by +12.8% YoY, while gross margin slightly improved. Capital expenditures surged to $22.6 billion, a YoY increase of +96.5% [1][8][12] - Azure's growth rate has slowed, but AI contributions are expanding, with Azure AI services contributing approximately 13 percentage points to revenue growth. Non-AI services performed slightly below expectations [1][41][42] - M365 and Dynamics showed robust growth, with M365 commercial cloud revenue increasing by +16% YoY. Windows revenue remained stable, while gaming revenue declined by -7% YoY [1][50][68] - AI annualized revenue exceeded $13 billion, reflecting a +175% YoY increase, with significant growth in AI applications and tools [1][73][74] - The company maintains a resilient performance outlook, expecting FY25Q3 total revenue between $67.7 billion and $68.7 billion, representing a YoY growth of 9% to 11% [1][82][85] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Growth and Capital Expenditure - FY25Q2 revenue reached $69.632 billion, with a YoY growth of +12.3%. Operating profit was $31.653 billion, with a margin of 45.46% [8][9] - Capital expenditures for FY25Q2 were $22.6 billion, reflecting a significant increase due to investments in cloud and AI infrastructure [12][12] 2. Azure AI and Other Segments - Intelligent cloud revenue was $25.5 billion, growing by +18.7% YoY, while Azure AI services contributed significantly to this growth [22][41] - M365 and Dynamics revenues were $29.4 billion and $1.91 billion respectively, with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing by +16% YoY [50][55] 3. AI Revenue and Applications - AI business annualized revenue surpassed $13 billion, with a notable increase in the adoption of AI tools and applications [73][74] - GitHub Copilot and M365 Copilot saw substantial user growth, indicating a shift towards practical AI applications in business [74][75] 4. Performance Guidance - The company expects FY25Q3 revenue to be between $67.7 billion and $68.7 billion, with growth driven by Azure and M365 [82][85]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that BYD is accelerating the penetration of intelligent driving technology, aiming to lower the barriers for smart driving and promote widespread adoption [7][10] - The trend of intelligent driving configurations is increasingly penetrating the mid-to-low-end vehicle market, with significant sales proportions in the 5-10 million, 10-15 million, and 15-20 million price segments [19][20] - The intelligent driving industry chain has vast growth potential, encompassing perception, transmission, and computing segments [23][24] Summary by Sections 1. BYD's Acceleration in Intelligent Driving - BYD plans to unveil its advanced intelligent driving system "Tianshen Eye" on February 10, 2025, and has committed to investing 100 billion yuan in AI and automotive integration [7][10] - The company is actively enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities across various models, including the Dolphin, which supports multiple advanced sensor configurations [13][19] 2. Penetration into Mid-to-Low-End Models - The report notes a clear trend of intelligent driving solutions being offered in the 10-15 million yuan price range, with models like Xiaopeng Mona and GAC Aion RT adopting advanced driving systems [19][20] - In December 2024, the sales proportions of new energy vehicles in the price segments of 5-10 million, 10-15 million, and 15-20 million were 19.9%, 35.7%, and 10.9% respectively, indicating a strong market for mid-to-low-end intelligent driving configurations [20] 3. Growth Potential of the Intelligent Driving Industry Chain - The intelligent driving hardware industry chain consists of three main components: perception (cameras and LiDAR), transmission (chips and connectors), and computing (domain controllers and intelligent driving chips) [23][24] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for automotive cameras, with expectations for 8-11 cameras to become standard in high-level driving assistance systems, leading to a projected market growth of 1.6 to 5 billion USD in the automotive CIS market [30][32] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on automotive CIS chip manufacturers, packaging firms like Jingfang Technology, LiDAR manufacturers such as Suteng Juchuang and Hesai, intelligent driving chip manufacturers, and high-frequency high-speed connector manufacturers like Dalian Technology [48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 23.66 CNY and a fair value of 29.29 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the charging pile industry, with AI infrastructure driving high growth in box transformers. The company has established a solid foundation in "smart manufacturing + system integration" and is experiencing a significant turning point with its subsidiary, which has achieved profitability for the first time in 2023 [8]. - The company expects substantial growth in net profit, forecasting a 70%-90% increase in 2024, driven by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and improved charging pile utilization rates [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company has a dual business model focusing on smart box power equipment and electric vehicle charging networks. The revenue from smart manufacturing and system integration accounted for 58.02% of total revenue in 2024H1, while the electric vehicle charging network contributed 41.98% [19][20]. - The company has a strong market position in both segments, with its subsidiary being the largest charging network operator in China, holding a market share of 19.8% with 709,000 public charging piles as of 2024 [20]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 14.602 billion CNY in 2023, a 25.6% increase from the previous year, with a net profit of 491 million CNY, reflecting an 80.4% year-on-year growth [3][34]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a net profit between 835 million and 933 million CNY, representing a growth of 70%-90% [34]. 3. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for charging infrastructure due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and supportive government policies. The charging equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 213 billion CNY in 2025 [8]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence and collaborating with major telecom operators and cloud service providers, enhancing its competitive edge [8]. 4. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 1.618 billion CNY by 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.53 CNY per share. The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 25x for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 29.29 CNY per share [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to the company, with a current price of 2.77 CNY/1.38 HKD and a fair value of 3.35 CNY/1.68 HKD [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant improvement in annual performance, with a projected net profit of 4.2 to 4.8 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 208% to 252% [8]. - The increase in profitability is attributed to a decline in fuel costs and improved profitability from thermal power generation, alongside better water inflow contributing to overall profits [8]. - The company anticipates stable earnings moving forward, with expectations for market performance to stabilize and recover [8]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.469 billion, 5.164 billion, and 5.789 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.47, 9.93, and 8.85 [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 116.828 billion CNY in 2022 to 133.249 billion CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 12.8%, 4.8%, 3.7%, 1.7%, and 3.2% for the respective years [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 17.325 billion CNY in 2022 to 30.733 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - The company reported a net profit of -408 million CNY in 2022, turning to a profit of 1.365 billion CNY in 2023, and is projected to reach 5.789 billion CNY by 2026 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -0.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.79 CNY and a fair value of 9.46 CNY [3]. Core Views - The report highlights the potential of the JD Outlet model, which is in its early stages but shows promise due to JD's brand strength and the company's operational capabilities in lower-tier cities. The low-risk, light-asset model of JD Outlet is expected to have significant growth potential [8][18]. Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 18.562 billion CNY in 2022 to 26.533 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.651 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.727 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 2.155 billion CNY in 2022 to 2.908 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.2% in 2026 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated to be 0.50 CNY in 2022, increasing to 0.61 CNY by 2026 [2]. Store Insights - The JD Outlet store in Pingdingshan, Henan, has a strategic location with a population of 678,100 within a 3 km radius and an average monthly foot traffic of 1.055 million [8][19]. - The store covers an area of approximately 5,000 square meters and features nine main product categories, with sports apparel being the dominant category at 25% of the store's area [29][30]. Brand Matrix - The store hosts a diverse range of brands, including Adidas, Nike, and Puma, with Adidas being the leading brand in the sports category [39][40]. - The brand matrix includes various segments such as sports shoes, outdoor clothing, and beauty products, catering to a wide customer base [39][40]. Pricing and Discounts - The store offers significant discounts, typically ranging from 30% to 50%, with specific categories like sports shoes averaging a discount of 52% [71][72]. - Many products are priced lower than their counterparts on online platforms like Tmall, enhancing the store's competitive edge [72][75].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Hong Kong and US stocks of Yum China [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q4 adjusted net profit increase of 11%, continuing its expansion and efficiency improvement efforts [3][10] - The company aims to increase its store count in 2025, targeting a net addition of 1,600 to 1,800 stores [10] - The company maintains a strong shareholder return policy, with plans for share buybacks and dividends totaling approximately $3 billion from 2025 to 2026 [10] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to grow from $10.98 billion in 2023 to $13.55 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 14.7% in 2023 and 7.1% in 2027 [4][12] - **Net Profit**: Projected to increase from $827 million in 2023 to $1.16 billion in 2027, with a growth rate of 87.1% in 2023 [4][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to rise from $2.00 in 2023 to $3.55 in 2027 [4][12] - **Valuation Metrics**: The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.33 in 2023, decreasing to 13.84 by 2027 [4][12] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Forecasted to improve from 12.9% in 2023 to 18.8% in 2027 [4][12]