2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 风电轴承龙头产能释放在即，乘行业东风打开新 增长极 ——新强联（300850）公司深度研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 新强联 | -1.4% | 40.5% | 12.7% | | 沪深 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/14 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 26.00 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.68-30.28 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 9,327.37 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 6,381.60 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 35,874.51 | | 流通股本 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩增速稳健，产品结构继续升级 ——金徽酒（603919）2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 4 月 14 日，金徽酒发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 公司实现营业 收入 11.08 亿元，同比+3.04%；归母净利润 2.34 亿元，同比+5.77%； 扣非归母净利润 2.31 亿元，同比+4.30%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2025/04/14 表现 1M 3M 12M 金徽酒 -1.3% 5.8% 2.8% 证券研究报告 | 市场数据 | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 19.59 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.47-24.18 | | 总市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 流通市值（百万） | 9,937.22 | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company is continuously strengthening its business focus and is expected to benefit from the high demand in the ultra-high voltage industry [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the direct current equipment sector, with significant growth potential due to the increasing demand in the industry [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 171 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan, and a gross profit margin of 20.8%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 75.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 173% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, while the net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year [5]. Business Segment Performance - The company has reduced low-margin integrated business and achieved rapid growth in direct current business, with direct current transmission system revenue increasing by 102% year-on-year [6]. - The intelligent distribution system generated revenue of 47.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.3%, while the intelligent meter segment reported revenue of 38.7 billion yuan [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the anticipated approval of five ultra-high voltage direct current projects in 2025, which will drive demand for direct current equipment [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 18.3 billion yuan, 20.0 billion yuan, and 22.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 10% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.45 billion yuan, 1.77 billion yuan, and 2.13 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20% respectively [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16x for 2025, 13x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a robust performance with a revenue of 18.586 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.724 billion yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has shown a strong competitive advantage in the industry, with significant growth in both production and sales volumes, particularly in chicken meat sales and processed meat products [4][6] - The company has successfully enhanced its breeding stock performance and market share through the development of its proprietary breeding source, "Shenze 901plus," which has seen over 30% growth in sales compared to the previous year [4][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a quarterly growth in performance throughout 2024, indicating a consistent improvement in its operational efficiency [4] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 20.889 billion yuan, 23.106 billion yuan, and 25.706 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.076 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.946 billion yuan [4][6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.58 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of +20.0%, 3-month performance of +21.5%, and a 12-month performance of +16.1% [3] - The current stock price is 17.12 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 10.49 to 17.98 yuan [3] Business Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive multi-channel business system covering B-end, C-end, and F-end markets, leading to a 23.40% year-on-year increase in C-end business revenue [4] - The company has focused on enhancing its export business, achieving a 17.29% year-on-year growth in exports [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of high sales prosperity, driven by new vehicle launches, technological advancements, and industry trends such as advanced driving assistance systems and robotics [6][18] - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025 is anticipated to support upward consumer spending in the automotive market [5][18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - New models launched include the Leapmotor B10, BYD Han L, and Geely Xingyao 8, with significant features and competitive pricing [5][14][15][16] - Tesla plans to build its first factory in Africa, located in Morocco, with an investment of $5 billion and a projected annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles [5][17] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index from April 7 to April 11, with a weekly decline of 5.5% [19] - The performance of major automotive stocks during the same period showed declines, with companies like Li Auto and NIO experiencing significant drops [19] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the automotive sector: 1. Companies positioned for high-end market growth, such as Li Auto, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [6][18] 2. Beneficiaries of the "affordable" advanced driving technology trend, including XPeng Motors and Huayang Group [6][18] 3. Companies in the robotics sector poised for breakthroughs, such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [6][18] 4. Quality auto parts manufacturers expected to benefit from a complex export environment, including Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Automotive Lighting [6][18] 5. Commercial vehicle leaders like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Yutong Bus, which are expected to recover in 2025 [6][18] Industry Indicators - In March 2025, the automotive production and sales figures showed a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the market [36]

2025 年 04 月 15 日 行业研究 [Table_Title] 美国关税加码，全球资产"震颤" 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn ——钢铁与大宗商品行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 钢铁 | | -8.0% | 4.5% | -0.5% | | 沪深 | 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | 相关报告 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：关税风险支撑溢价， 铜金最为受益（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-03-24 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：会议落地黑色情绪回 落，关税高悬有色价格走高（无评级）*钢铁*谢文 迪》——2025-03-10 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：美国关税政策再调 整，避险情绪为主流（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》— —2025-02-17 《钢铁与大宗商品行 ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Dongfang Caifu's securities business market share continues to rise, benefiting from the capital market recovery in Q4 2024, with brokerage market share at 4.11% and margin financing market share at 3.16% [4][5] - In 2024, Dongfang Caifu achieved revenue of 11.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][4] - Ningbo Bank reported an 8.19% increase in revenue and a 6.23% increase in net profit for 2024, with total assets exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [9][11] - Ningbo Bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable, with a provision coverage ratio of 389.35% [10][11] - The company expects to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 22.77% in 2024 [11] Group 2: Industry Trends - The aluminum industry is experiencing a reduction in tariff pressures, with domestic aluminum production capacity expected to rise to 43.92 million tons per year by the end of April 2025 [14][18] - Despite tariff impacts, demand for aluminum is showing slight growth, with inventory levels decreasing [15][18] - The coal market is stabilizing, with port inventories declining and prices holding steady due to supply constraints and steady demand from non-electric sectors [19][21] - The introduction of high-purity quartz as a new mineral resource in China is expected to support the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries, with significant breakthroughs in domestic production capabilities [24][25] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the impact of new business investments is expected to be manageable [2] - JD Group's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to reach 290.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [5] - The report highlights the strong recovery in consumer spending and the benefits from national subsidies, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: 1,266.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 1,334.0 billion yuan - 2027E: 1,400.6 billion yuan [7][9] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: 45.56 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.38 billion yuan - 2027E: 56.05 billion yuan [7][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 14.63 yuan - 2026E: 16.40 yuan - 2027E: 17.78 yuan [7][9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 20% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - **JD Retail**: - Expected revenue growth of 12.3% to 254.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by national subsidies and improved operational efficiency [5][8] - **JD Logistics**: - Anticipated revenue growth of 11% to 46.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery market [5][8] - **JD Delivery**: - Daily order volume is projected to exceed 5 million following the launch of a significant subsidy program [8]

2025 年 04 月 14 日 债券研究周报 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 刘畅 S0350524090005 | | | liuc06@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 机构行为每周跟踪 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 机构资金跟踪 本周（4 月 7 日-4 月 11 日）流动性略有放松。R007 收于 1.70%， 较上周减少 4BP，DR007 收于 1.65%，较上周减少 4BP。6 个月国 股转贴利率收于 1.20%，较上周增加 8BP。 机构行为量化指标 久期方面，本周绩优利率债基金久期较上周减少 0.10；"资产荒" 指数有所上行；杠杆方面，全市场杠杆率较上周增加 0.2 个百分点， 收于 106.9%；理财市场方面，本周全市场产品破净率较上周有所上 行，为 2.6%。 风险提示 相关结论主要基于过往数据计算所得，不能完全预测 未来；报告采用的样本数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的 风险，且数据处理统计方式可能存在误差；中国央行货币 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 债市如何交易关税冲击？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评：同业存单的新机会*靳毅》—— 2025-03-23 《固定收益点评：降息预期修正到位了吗？*靳毅》 《固定收益点评：地产市场近况更新*靳毅》—— 2025-03-11 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-03-30 ——2025-03-17 4 月 2 日，对等关税出台大超市场预期，我国债市利率受此影响快速下行，目前 点位已接近前低位置，后续债市将如何交易关税冲击？我们复盘了上一轮 2018 年的贸易摩擦中债市的表现，为本轮贸易战下的债市交易提供借鉴。 资料来源：新华网、Wind、国海证券研究所 1、2018 年贸易摩 ...