证券研究报告 2025年04月06日 有色金属 铝行业周报：关税冲击，海外铝价持续下跌，国内去库延续 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -26% -16% -6% 3% 13% 22% 2024/04 2024/07 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：铝去库表现好，关税压力下铝价震荡（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-03-31 《铝行业周报：去库表现良好，铝价短期震荡不改旺季逻辑（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-03-23 《铝行业周报：库存持续去化，关注旺季需求提升（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-03-16 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.2% | 10.4% | -2.3% | | 沪深300 | -0.7% | 2.3% ...

证券研究报告 2025年04月06日 煤炭开采 新集能源(601918.SH)深度报告之二：安徽火电预计未来三 年依然偏紧，新集能源煤电投产将增厚业绩 评级：买入(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 张益(联系人) S0350522110007 S0350124100016 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 -31% -20% -10% 1% 11% 21% 2024/04/03 2024/06/03 2024/08/03 2024/10/03 2024/12/03 2025/02/03 2025/04/03 新集能源 沪深300 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新集能源 | 7.0% | -1.2% | -21.8% | | 沪深300 | -0.7% | 2.3% | 8.2% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/03 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 6.86 | | 52周价格区间（元） | 6.21-10.71 | | 总市值（百万） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][25]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2,938 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 164.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company emphasizes high dividends, with a total cash dividend distribution of 86.02 billion yuan, accounting for 52.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [9][12]. - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 262.2 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on oil and gas exploration and development [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 164.7 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5][12]. - The average Brent crude oil price was 80.76 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the company’s oil and gas sales volume increased, demonstrating resilience in its operational performance [6][12]. Segment Performance - The oil and gas and new energy segment generated revenue of 906.8 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, with operating profit of 159.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1% [6][15]. - The refining and chemical segment saw revenue decline to 1,192.6 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping 42% to 21.4 billion yuan due to intensified competition [7][15]. - The sales segment reported revenue of 2,454.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with operating profit down 31.2% to 16.5 billion yuan [7][15]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3,051 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits of 165.6 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [12][14]. - The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to increase by 1.6% compared to 2024, focusing on key exploration and development projects [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is experiencing positive financial performance driven by a new vehicle cycle, accelerated intelligent driving technology, and overseas expansion [1][8] - In March 2025, the company delivered 33,205 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 268%, and a total of 94,008 vehicles in Q1 2025, up 331% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.11 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 59.4% [5] - Vehicle revenue for Q4 2024 was 14.67 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.8% [5] - The company reported a gross margin of 14.4% for Q4 2024, with an automotive gross margin of 10.0% [5][9] Sales and Delivery Outlook - The company expects to deliver between 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 317.0% to 326.2% [6] - Projected total revenue for Q1 2025 is estimated to be between 15 billion to 15.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 129.1% to 139.8% [6] Strategic Developments - The company has expanded its overseas market presence, entering Poland, Switzerland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, with plans to sell models P7, G9, and G6 in Q2 2025 [8] - The company has established partnerships with leading distribution companies in Europe to enhance its market penetration [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 89 billion, 129.4 billion, and 153.8 billion RMB, with growth rates of 118%, 45%, and 19% respectively [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of -1.316 billion RMB in 2025, turning positive with a profit of 2.408 billion RMB by 2026 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price at ports has stabilized, and the investment value of leading coal companies is emphasized [2][4] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may fluctuate, leading to price dynamics and rebalancing [7][74] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and high asset quality of leading coal companies, characterized by high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins [7][74] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, and port prices have stabilized [10][13] - The production side shows stable supply, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization in the main production areas [13][21] - Demand has improved, with increased daily consumption in coastal and inland power plants [13][24] - The average daily coal input at ports has decreased, leading to a reduction in northern port inventories [29][33] 2. Coking Coal - Production continues to contract, with a decrease in capacity utilization due to previous production issues [39][73] - Demand has improved, with rising daily iron output and reduced inventory at coking enterprises [39][73] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has improved, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory [39][73] 3. Coke - The market anticipates price increases for coke after the Qingming Festival, with rising production rates in coking plants [52][73] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, indicating a challenging profitability environment [54][73] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with high operating rates in major production areas [68][74] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, among others, with strong investment recommendations [8][75] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating their investment potential [8][75]

研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q1 销量同比大增，2024Q4 业绩同环比提升 ——比亚迪（002594）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | 2025/04/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M 12M | | | 比亚迪 | -0.7% | 32.1% | 73.9% | | 沪深 300 | -0.7% | 2.3% 8.2% | | | 市场数据 | | 2025/04/03 | | | 当前价格（元） | | 357.51 | | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | 203.99-403.40 | | | 总市值（百万） | | 1,086,496.43 | | | 流通市值（百万） | | 415,574.61 | | | 总股本（万股） | | 303,906.59 | | | 流通股本（万股） | | 116,241.39 | | | 日均成交额（百万） | | 3,618.68 | | | 近一月换手（%） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant performance improvement in Q1 2025, with projected net profit increasing by 45.58% to 56.49% year-on-year [5][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.87%, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, also up 9.94% year-on-year [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.55% [5] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 200 million to 215 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to an increase of 62.615 million to 77.615 million yuan year-on-year [5][8] - The company’s revenue from synthetic resin products reached 5.343 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.33% [6] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, with a 45.6% increase compared to the index's 8.2% [3] - The current stock price is 27.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 17.14 to 32.01 yuan [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.678 billion, 13.041 billion, and 14.879 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.273 billion, 1.421 billion, and 1.633 billion yuan [10][13] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [2][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 51.022 billion yuan, a 12.77% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, up 16.21% year-on-year [2][5] - The company has set a stable revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with expectations for continued improvement in product structure and marketing channels [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 145.928 billion yuan and 24.684 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.28% and 19.65% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.93%, with a net profit margin of 52.27% [5][8] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of approximately 64.7 billion yuan for 2024, aligning with its dividend policy of maintaining a payout ratio of no less than 75% [5][8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 189.889 billion yuan, 205.740 billion yuan, and 222.156 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 93.194 billion yuan, 100.883 billion yuan, and 109.213 billion yuan [6][7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.19 yuan, 80.31 yuan, and 86.94 yuan, respectively [6][7] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 37% for the forecasted years [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772) as it initiates coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the consumer battery sector is experiencing a downturn due to falling raw material prices, while the company's self-supply rate for PACK continues to improve, leading to enhanced gross margins. The global demand for consumer electronics is recovering, driven by the emergence of AI applications in laptops and smartphones, which is expected to elevate battery performance requirements [5][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 11.541 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 25.03% year-on-year [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.07%, and a net profit of 162 million yuan, a significant rise of 197.47% year-on-year [4][8]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.69%, with a net profit margin of 3.73%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement [8]. Business Segments - Consumer Battery: Revenue from consumer batteries was 10.265 billion yuan, down 2.05% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.68%, up 1.08 percentage points [5]. - Power and Energy Storage: Revenue from power batteries reached 917 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.54%, although the gross margin was negative at -4.16% [6]. Market Position - The company ranks first in global shipments of laptop batteries and second in tablet batteries, with significant partnerships with major clients like HP, Lenovo, Dell, and Apple [5]. - In the smartphone segment, the company is among the top five in global shipments, serving high-profile clients such as Apple, Xiaomi, and Huawei [5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.427 billion yuan, 16.678 billion yuan, and 19.064 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 25%, 16%, and 14% [7][9]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 903 million yuan, 1.203 billion yuan, and 1.502 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 110%, 33%, and 25% [7][9].

证券研究报告 2025年04月03日 证券Ⅱ 洞察她财富蓝海：女性财富管理机遇与金融机构行动指南— ———非银行业专题报告 林加力(证券分析师) 董栋梁(证券分析师) S0350524100005 S0350525030005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn dongdl@ghzq.com.cn 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 u 核心要点：我国女性财富管理发展空间广阔，女性自身对财富管理也有充分的需求，金融机构可以采用多种方式发展女性财 富管理。 u 我国女性财富管理有着广阔的发展空间：国内女性相比国外话事权更高，且我国中产以上的女性人数众多，我们预计我国女 性管理的财富在2025年有望超过12万亿美元，这让女性财富管理业务的发展有了广阔的空间。 u 女性自身对财富管理也有充分的需求：女性自身也对财富管理有着很强的需求，女性相对缺乏自信，更加需要投顾。除此之 外，女性也在自己退休养老，财富传承，财富改善生活等方面有需求。同时在理财方面，女性相比男性也有许多不同，比如 女性风险意识更强，投资收益相对较高，更着重于长期目标，投资时也希望达成ESG目标。 u 海外金融机构在女性财富管理市场做 ...