2025 年 04 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、品质直播再升级，关注淘宝直播新阶段--行业动态研究（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 分析师：张娟娟 S0350523110004 分析师：罗婉琦 S0350524050002 事件： 2025 年 3 月 31 日淘宝直播在一年一度的直播盛典上宣布，2025 年全面加码品质直播，新增 110 亿投入，目 标成交和用户规模两年翻番，并帮助更多生态伙伴用品质实现确定性增长，行业将全面迈入品质直播时代。 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 58 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 品质直播再升级，关注淘宝直播新阶段--行业动态研究（港股美股） 如何看美国当前的债务现状？--宏观专题研究 业务结构持续优化，云与信创赋能业绩增长--太极股份/IT 服务Ⅱ(002368/217103) 公司点评 2024 年净利润同比+90.8%，云服务盈利 1.33 亿元--浪潮数字企业/软件开发(00596/217 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][11][30]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 90.8% in 2024, despite a slight revenue decline of 1.62% [4][12]. - The cloud service business has been a key driver, achieving a revenue growth of 38.1% and turning a profit of 1.33 billion yuan [5][13]. - The overall financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 and a favorable price-to-earnings ratio [11][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 8.201 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.62% year-on-year, while net profit reached 385 million yuan, an increase of 90.8% [4][12]. - The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 427 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 632.47% [4][12]. Cloud Service Business - The cloud service segment generated revenues of 2.761 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.1%, and achieved an operating profit of 1.33 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 560 million yuan in the previous year [5][13]. - The management software and IoT solutions also contributed positively, with revenues of 2.556 billion yuan and 2.883 billion yuan, respectively [5][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its cloud service offerings, integrating AI capabilities through platforms like the Haiyue model and DeepSeek, which have been successfully implemented in several large enterprises [6][23]. - It is also focusing on the small and medium-sized enterprise market, promoting integrated solutions and expanding its customer base in the financial sector [8][25]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.076 billion yuan, 10.022 billion yuan, and 10.996 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 520 million yuan, 695 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [11][30]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.78 yuan [11][30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's business structure is continuously optimizing, with significant performance improvement noted in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 7.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 191 million yuan, down 49.08% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.08%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Business Performance Summary - In 2024, the cloud and data services segment generated revenue of 1.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, accounting for 14.97% of total revenue [4]. - The self-developed software products segment reported revenue of 1.931 billion yuan, a decline of 6.25%, representing 24.65% of total revenue [4]. - The industry solutions segment saw revenue of 3.438 billion yuan, down 15.98%, making up 43.87% of total revenue [4]. - The digital infrastructure segment experienced a significant decline in revenue, totaling 1.150 billion yuan, down 37.70%, accounting for 14.68% of total revenue [4]. Growth Drivers - The company is actively participating in digital government projects, contributing to the construction of the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone and Hainan Free Trade Port [5]. - The database business, particularly through its subsidiary, achieved revenue of 433 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 16.02% [5]. - The company is enhancing its cloud services capabilities, with its Beijing municipal government cloud platform passing technical capability assessments [8]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 8.957 billion yuan, 9.969 billion yuan, and 10.992 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 284 million yuan, 343 million yuan, and 408 million yuan [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.46 yuan in 2025, 0.55 yuan in 2026, and 0.65 yuan in 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1][21]. Core Insights - The live commerce industry is at a pivotal moment, with 2024 marking a turning point due to regulatory policies and a shift towards quality-driven live streaming [7][14]. - Taobao Live is leading the new "Quality Live Streaming" model, emphasizing professional hosts, brand merchandise, and platform guarantees [15][18]. - The report highlights a significant investment of 11 billion yuan by Taobao Live in 2025, aiming for a doubling of transaction volume and user base over two years [18][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Quality Live Streaming as a Turning Point - The live commerce sector is facing challenges that necessitate a demand for quality live streaming, driven by regulatory changes and consumer trust issues [14][16]. - Taobao Live's model combines professional hosts, a vast inventory of quality brands, and robust platform support to ensure consumer protection [15][19]. - In 2024, Taobao Live reported over 200 million active buyers, with core host transactions increasing by 31% year-on-year [16][17]. 2. New Phase of Quality Live Streaming - Taobao Live's strategy for 2025 includes a substantial investment of 11 billion yuan, with a target of over 50% growth in transaction speed and doubling user numbers [18][21]. - The platform aims to enhance user growth by leveraging its extensive ecosystem, which includes 1 billion active buyers across Alibaba's platforms [18][19]. - The report notes that Taobao Live will continue to expand its quality merchandise pool and improve its platform mechanisms to drive user engagement [19][20]. 3. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the overseas industry, suggesting that the shift towards quality live streaming presents significant investment opportunities [21]. - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is highlighted as a key stock recommendation, benefiting from steady commercialization strategies and growth in its cloud business [22][23].

Group 1: Current Debt Situation - As of FY2024, the total U.S. government debt exceeds $38 trillion, primarily driven by federal government debt[3] - Federal government debt reached $35.5 trillion, while state and local debts are $1 trillion and $2 trillion respectively[3] - From FY2019 to FY2024, federal government debt increased by 56.4%, while state and local debts changed by -11.1% and 2% respectively[3] Group 2: Debt-to-GDP Ratios - By FY2024, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio surpassed 130%, with federal government debt-to-GDP exceeding 120%[4] - The federal debt reached $35.5 trillion, exceeding the FY2024 GDP of $28.8 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%[4] - The combined government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 134%[4] Group 3: Debt Growth Rate - The current growth rate of U.S. government debt is about $2.3 trillion per fiscal year, with projections indicating total debt will exceed $40 trillion in FY2025[5] - Federal debt is expected to surpass $37 trillion by FY2025, following annual increases of $2.5 trillion, $2.2 trillion, and $2.3 trillion in the previous three fiscal years[5] Group 4: Interest Payments and Fiscal Pressure - In FY2024, interest payments on federal debt reached $1.13 trillion, doubling from $0.56 trillion in FY2021[10] - Net interest payments became the third-largest expenditure for the federal government, accounting for approximately 13.1% of total spending in FY2024[11] - The average interest rate on outstanding debt rose to 3.324% by FY2024, significantly increasing the cost of servicing the debt[10] Group 5: Public vs. Internal Debt Holdings - Publicly held debt surged by 116% from FY2015 to FY2024, reaching $28.3 trillion, while internal government-held debt decreased[9] - In FY2024, public debt accounted for 92% of total federal debt, reflecting a significant shift in debt ownership[9] Group 6: External Debt Holdings - Foreign investors held $8.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities by the end of FY2024, a decrease from 31.5% of federal debt in 2010 to 23.5%[9] - Major foreign holders include Japan, China, and the UK, with respective holdings of $1.0598 trillion, $0.759 trillion, and $0.7227 trillion[9]

Key Insights - BYD's March new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% year-on-year, while China's three major telecom operators have successfully tackled cross-network capability interoperability issues [3][6] - The chemical battery sector is facing short-term performance pressure, but the long-term growth of the fluorochemical industry is promising [17][22] - China National Heavy Duty Truck's Q4 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with a gross margin reaching a new high since Q2 2020 [24][25] - Puyuan Precision Electric's product structure optimization is suppressing short-term profits due to rising expenses [27][28] Industry Summaries New Materials - New materials are a crucial direction for the chemical industry, experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand supported by policy and technological breakthroughs [3] - Key areas of focus include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [4] - The chemical storage industry is expected to see significant improvements in utilization rates and operational hours in 2024 [11] Battery Chemicals - The battery chemical sector is facing intense competition, with projected revenue of 7.84 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.85% increase year-on-year, but net profit is expected to decline by 6.83% [18][19] - The average price of domestic electrolytes is projected to drop by 41.43% in 2024 [19] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, enhancing its market position in fluorochemical products [21] Commercial Vehicles - China National Heavy Duty Truck's Q4 2024 revenue reached 11.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a net profit of 546 million yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year [24][25] - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement of old trucks, entering a favorable market cycle in 2025 [25][26] General Industry Trends - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [51] - The phosphorous mining sector is expected to see a revaluation due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on Ba Tian Co.'s capacity expansion [47][49]

研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 大行注资落地，如何影响债市 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 大行注资落地，如何影响债市 注资的动因是什么？ 截至 2024 年末，国有大行的资本充足率均 满足监管要求，本轮注资更多是为了巩固银行的稳健经营能力，提 升其支持实体经济的能力。以 2024 年末的核心一级资本充足率数据 测算，本轮注资后，若保持核心一级资本充足率不变，则可对应增 加加权风险资产 4.6 万亿元，假设这部分资金全部用于信贷投放， 对应可支撑 4.6-6.1 万亿元的新增贷款，为后续潜在的经济刺激政策 提供了"弹药"。 对债市有何影响？ 注资特别国债带来的供给冲击相对有限，同 时将一定程度上缓解大行资产端配置压力，大行对利率债的需求或 有增长，但具体规模仍需关注信贷投放表现，若经济走势偏弱、信 贷表现一般，则大行增配债券的确定性更高，利率债的下行空间有 望打开。 2025 年 04 月 07 日 债券研究周报 机构资金跟踪 本周（ ...

2025 年 04 月 07 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 北交所出台自律管理规则，本周天工股份完成注 册、下周两家企业上会 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | -2.64% | 24.76% | 49.97% | | 沪深 | 300 | -0.73% | 1.08% | 7.84% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数有所回调， 本周开发科技上市（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-31 《商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫 星星座建设加速（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-26 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 指数有所回调， 下周交大铁发上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025 due to several factors, including decreasing inventory levels, bottoming out of profits, and institutional holdings reaching a low point [8][30] - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is likely to continue, with a potential revaluation of its value, particularly focusing on the capacity expansion of Batian Co., Ltd [4][6] - The impact of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese chemical enterprises is expected to be limited, as the U.S. still needs to import a significant amount of chemical products from China [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector showed a performance of 0.0% over the last month, 8.4% over the last three months, and 1.2% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which had performances of -0.7%, 2.3%, and 8.2% respectively [2] Investment Suggestions - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion opportunities, such as Wanhu Chemical, and those in the tire and fertilizer sectors [8] - Highlight the potential for increased demand in phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries, with ongoing projects in fine phosphate chemicals [4][6] - Emphasize high dividend yield opportunities in state-owned enterprises within the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10] Key Company Tracking - Batian Co., Ltd. plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity from 900,000 tons/year to 2 million tons/year, with additional projects underway [6] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices in sulfuric acid, acrylic acid, and synthetic ammonia, with a focus on companies like Batian Co., Ltd. and others in the phosphate sector [7][9] Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, the price of phosphate rock was 1,038 CNY/ton, with slight fluctuations in related fertilizer prices [19] - The Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at 66.06 and 62.32 USD/barrel, respectively, indicating a week-on-week decrease of approximately 9.98% and 9.73% [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates steady revenue growth in the main business of the company, with a focus on flexible sensors to create a second growth curve [4][5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit of 139 million yuan, up 98.42% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is transitioning from a single coating material provider to an integrated solution provider, enhancing revenue across various business segments [5][6] Group 2 - The report highlights that Lululemon's North American market growth is weak, with a revenue of 3.6 billion USD in FY2024Q4, a year-on-year increase of 13% [9][10] - The company expects a low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in North America for FY2025, with challenges from economic concerns affecting consumer traffic [11][12] - In contrast, the Chinese market showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 48% year-on-year, indicating a robust performance in that region [11][12] Group 3 - The report on Tongyi Zhong indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 649 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but net profit decreased by 15.2% [15][16] - The company reported a significant increase in production and sales volumes, with historical highs in major product categories [17][18] - The company is expanding into the aramid fiber sector, aiming to create dual growth drivers [15][21] Group 4 - Xiamen International Trade's report emphasizes its focus on supply chain management, with a strategy to navigate through commodity cycles [28][29] - The company has divested from real estate and financial services to concentrate on its core supply chain business, which includes metals, energy, and agriculture [29][30] - The report projects revenue for 2024 to 2026 at 389.05 billion yuan, 404.61 billion yuan, and 418.84 billion yuan, respectively, with a focus on maintaining a high dividend yield [32] Group 5 - The report on Bawang Tea indicates that it leads the high-end tea beverage market with 6,440 stores, achieving a GMV of 10.8 billion yuan in 2023 [33][34] - The company is benefiting from a growing market for high-end tea beverages, with a projected market size increase from 4.748 trillion yuan in 2019 to 8.189 trillion yuan in 2024 [34][35] - Bawang Tea's strategy focuses on a limited number of new products while optimizing supply chain efficiency, resulting in a gross margin of 51.5% [35] Group 6 - Aikodi's report shows a revenue of 6.746 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, with a net profit of 940 million yuan [36][37] - The company is expanding its global footprint with new production bases in Malaysia and Mexico, enhancing its supply chain stability [39][40] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth driven by new product lines and market expansion, projecting revenues of 7.9 billion yuan in 2025 [40] Group 7 - Longxing Technology's report indicates a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 28.7% [41][42] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects and acquisitions, aiming to increase its market share in the carbon black industry [46] - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 13.01% in Q4 2024, driven by operational efficiencies [45][46]