氢能与燃料电池 买入 维持评级 氢能组 师：唐雪琪（执业 师：姚遥（执业 氢车产销势头上扬，中央 3 年拨付补贴超 50 亿元 行业数据点评 25Q1 装机势头上扬。3 月，燃料电池系统装机量 165.44MW，同比上升 177.8%；2025 年 1~3 月燃料电池系统累计 装机量 206.28MW，同比增长 102%，行业数据季节性波动。3 月均为高功率，以重卡为主，占比 97.3%。 3 月上险量 728 辆，Q1 淡季不淡。2025 年 3 月上险量为 728 辆，同比增长 87.2%。由于统计口径差异，中汽协公 布的 3 月燃料电池汽车产销分别为 365/377 辆，同比增长 36.2%/68.3%。2025Q1 上险量为 1143 辆，同比增长 42.9%。 东方电气单月装机量第一，本月以新兴第三方系统商为主。3 月，东方电气系统装机量第一，为 73.4MW，占比 44%； 荣创新能第二，装机 20.1MW，占比 12%；第三是氢扬动力，装机 15.8MW，占比 10%。2025 年 1~3 月，东方电气装机量 第一，为 73.4MW，占比 35%；荣创新能第二，为 20.1MW，占比 10%，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.589 billion RMB in 2024, a decline of 4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 205 million RMB, showing significant improvement compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 588 million RMB, marking a 15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 25 million RMB, a remarkable growth of 564% [2]. - The PCB chemicals and chemical reagents segments showed improved profitability, with PCB chemicals revenue growing by 20% to 1.64 billion RMB and a gross margin increase of 1.04 percentage points [3]. - The company plans to optimize its production layout and strengthen cooperation across the supply chain to enhance competitiveness in the new energy materials sector, which has been adversely affected by industry cycles [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 2.589 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 3.007 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.14% [10]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 110 million RMB in 2025, with further growth to 151 million RMB in 2026 and 187 million RMB in 2027 [10]. Business Segments - The PCB chemicals segment is a key growth driver, with a revenue increase of 20% in 2024, while the lithium battery materials segment faced challenges, with a 55% revenue decline [3]. - The company is reallocating 280 million RMB from the terminated high-performance lithium battery materials project to a new specialized chemical materials project, aimed at enhancing production capabilities in various industries [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits of 1.1 billion RMB and 1.51 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.87 billion RMB [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 66.25, 48.25, and 38.87 times, respectively [5].

事件 2025 年 4 月 23 日公司发布了 2024 年报和 2025 年 1 季报，公司 2024 年营业收入为 25.89 亿元，同比下滑 4%，归母净利润为亏损 2.05 亿元，同比大幅减亏；2025 年 1 季度营业收入为 5.88 亿元， 同比增长 15%，归母净利润为 0.25 亿元，同比增长 564%。 经营分析 PCB 化学品和化学试剂盈利改善，新能源材料有望优化实现减亏。 从公司分板块业务表现来看，2024 年 PCB 化学品和化学试剂收入 增长且盈利提升，PCB 化学品收入同比增长 20%达到 16.4 亿元， 毛利率同比提高 1.04pct，化学试剂收入同比增长 7%达到 4.7 亿 元，毛利率同比提高 4.09pct；受行业周期影响，新能源材料订单 需求不足且碳酸锂等产品价格持续低位，板块获利能力继续下降 导致经营亏损，2024 年锂电池材料收入同比下滑 55%至 2.6 亿元， 毛利率同比下滑 18.55pct。面对新能源材料行业周期性波动对经 营产生的不利影响，公司计划通过合理调整生产基地的布局，进一 步强化产业链上下游稳定协同合作关系，对产业链进行优化降本， 提高公司新能源产 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the current sector has investment value, recommending a focus on operators with potential for increased capacity utilization, leading indicators in power generation per ton and heating ratio, lower reliance on subsidies, and higher cash dividend capabilities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the waste incineration sector is entering a phase of positive free cash flow, with significant increases in dividend ratios expected in the coming years. The average dividend ratio is projected to rise from 35% in 2023 to 47% in 2024, driven by a 307% year-on-year increase in free cash flow [3][23][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration with IDC (Internet Data Center) operators, which is expected to optimize cash flow curves and business models for waste incineration operators. This partnership is anticipated to create a win-win scenario for all parties involved [3][54]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The waste incineration industry has achieved a 100% harmless treatment rate for domestic waste by the end of 2023, with a significant shift towards incineration over landfill methods [12][13]. - The fixed cost structure of waste incineration plants is characterized by a high proportion of depreciation and amortization costs, approximately 42.8%, leading to stable cash outflows [15][18]. Section 2: Financial Performance - The report notes that the waste incineration sector is expected to see a substantial increase in free cash flow, with the first year of positive free cash flow occurring in 2023. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to increase significantly in 2024 [3][23][30]. - The cash flow structure is stable, with variable costs linked to fuel prices being only 5.5% of total costs, while the majority consists of labor and auxiliary costs [15][18]. Section 3: Risks and Challenges - The report identifies several risks, including delayed subsidy payments, lower-than-expected capacity utilization for newly commissioned plants, and potential issues with the commercial model leading to accounts receivable delays [2][26]. - The impact of subsidy reductions on project internal rates of return (IRR) is highlighted, with a decrease of 0.1 CNY/KWh potentially lowering IRR from 7.9% to 6.2% [29][34]. Section 4: Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional operators in high electricity price areas (e.g., Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) that have lower reliance on subsidies and higher cash dividend capabilities [1]. - Collaboration with IDC is seen as a strategic move to enhance cash flow and stabilize revenue streams, particularly in light of increasing energy demands from data centers [54][56].

业绩简评 4 月 23 日，公司发布 24 年&25Q1 业绩。24 年公司收入 37 亿元， 同比-10%，扣非归母净利润 2.9 亿元，同比-29%；25Q1 公司收入 6.8 亿元，同比-22%，扣非归母净利润 0.34 亿元，同比-59%。 经营分析 1、24 年电车 PTC 收入高增。分业务：24 年公司家电 PTC/电车 PTC/ 新能源装备/光通信分别收入 11.4/5.1/14.7/4.7 亿元，同比- 10%/+73%/-25%/-6%，毛利率分别 18.6%/20.1%/32.8%/10.6%，分 别-0.7/-4.0/-3.1/+0.9pct。 2、25Q1 净利率环比修复。24 年公司毛利率 23.35%，同比-0.2pct， 四费率 9.6%，同比-0.2pct，扣费归母净利率 7.8%，同比-2.1cpt； 25Q1 公司毛利率 22.34%，同比-1.35pct，四费率 11.74%，同比 +1.2pct，环比-3.4pct，扣非归母净利率 5.0%，同比-4.4pct，环 比+2.1pct，净利率环比提升主因减值降低。 3、积极拓品类拓方向，预镀镍逐步放量。①家电 PTC：公司 ...

风险提示 数据统计遗漏，政策超预期，资金面显著波动 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 一、存量市场概览 上周地方政府债存量规模达到 50.34 万亿元。其中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比为 21%。明确资 金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域，存量余额均在 1 万亿以上。其次 收费公路存量余额超过 8000 亿元，水利和生态项目存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。上周广东、江苏、山东地方债存量规 模仍位居三甲，三省地方债存量规模均超过 3 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖南、河南、河北、湖北存量规 模也位于 2 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 2006.16 亿元，与前一周基本持平。其中新增专项债 451.12 亿元，再融资专项债 1102.64 亿 元。募集资金用途方面，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域，"置换隐性债务"发 行规模有所提升。截止上周，4月特殊再融资专项债发行已有2560.39 亿元，占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到42.66%。 期限结构方面，上周 20-30 年地方债发行占比相对较高，读 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a profit increase in the coming years [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as electric vehicle PTC, pre-plated nickel, and molten salt energy storage, which are expected to offset declines in the photovoltaic business and promote the layout of robotics-related businesses [5]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.71 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.62% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 318 million RMB, down 50.62% year-on-year [9]. - The company has successfully developed over 20 new customers in the home appliance PTC sector and is expanding into overseas markets for equipment, including molten salt energy storage and semiconductor heating [4]. Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and a net profit of 290 million RMB, down 29% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 680 million RMB, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 34 million RMB, down 59% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 23.35%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.8%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows significant growth in electric vehicle PTC revenue, which increased by 73% year-on-year, while home appliance PTC revenue decreased by 10% [3]. - The gross profit margins for different segments in 2024 were as follows: home appliance PTC at 18.6%, electric vehicle PTC at 20.1%, new energy equipment at 32.8%, and optical communication at 10.6% [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 292 million RMB, 394 million RMB, and 432 million RMB, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 451.79 RMB based on a valuation of 75 times earnings for 2025, resulting in a market capitalization of 542.35 billion RMB [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, achieving 3.263 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, and a net profit of 460 million RMB, up 271.7% [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in low-power computing SoC chips, with a strong focus on AIoT applications, particularly in smart wearables and smart home devices [16][24]. - The global market for headphones and smart wearables is experiencing steady growth, with the company gaining market share in these segments [4][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in low-power AIoT technology, focusing on smart audio and video SoC chips used in various low-power scenarios, including smart wearables and smart home devices [3][16]. - The company has established a diverse customer base, including major Android phone brands, professional audio manufacturers, internet companies, and home appliance manufacturers [3][24]. Investment Logic - The headphone and smartwatch markets are developing steadily, with the company increasing its market share. IDC forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in global headphone shipments for 2024 [4][60]. - The company has introduced advanced 12nm and 6nm wearable control chips, positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in the smart wearable sector [4][16]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.60 billion RMB, 7.23 billion RMB, and 10.06 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.84 RMB, 6.02 RMB, and 8.38 RMB [6][10]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit growth rate of 272.35% anticipated for 2024 [10][34]. Market Trends - The global headphone market is recovering, with a projected shipment of 340 million units in 2024, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [47][60]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging AI glasses market, which is expected to become a significant growth driver [5][60].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading connector system manufacturer in China, focusing on electric vehicle electrification, intelligence, and battery-related fields, showcasing innovative technologies and products at the Shanghai International Auto Show [2]. - Revenue from new energy connectors has significantly increased, accounting for 90.28% of total revenue in 2024, up from 87.92% in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 59.46% [3]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including major global clients such as BYD, Tesla, and NIO, positioning itself for continued growth as the penetration of new energy vehicles increases [3]. - The company is expanding into emerging fields such as AI servers, humanoid robots, and medical applications, supported by five production bases in China and abroad, which is expected to drive long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2.415 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 55.29%, with a net profit of 175 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 28.11% [4][9]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 211 million RMB, 340 million RMB, and 396 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 22, and 19 [4][9]. Financial Metrics - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.106 RMB in 2024 to 2.501 RMB in 2027 [9]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.36% in 2024 to 14.29% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [9].

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报公告：25Q1 单季度收 入 55.06 亿元，同比+24.3%，归母净利润 3.62 亿元，同比+68.3%， 扣非归母净利润 2.51 亿元，同比+132.4%。25Q1 公司毛利率 18.54%，同比-0.89pct，环比+3.37pct。我们认为归母口径好于市 场预期，扣非口径基本符合市场预期，归母与扣非的 1.11 亿元的 差值主要为政府补助。 经营分析 （1）玻纤：传统业务淡季不淡、基本面改善，Low-Dk 需求快速扩 张。①单价方面，25Q1 全国缠绕直接纱 2400tex 均价为 3766 元/ 吨，同比+22.3%、环比+2.3%，价格环比继续修复，主因高端品风 电纱、热塑长协产品提价，风电纱产品复价预计 25Q1 逐步落地。 ②销量方面，参考卓创资讯库存数据，5Q1 期末行业库存为 79.8 万吨，环比 24Q4 末增加 1.95 万吨、垒库幅度仅 2.5%，我们预计 行业呈现淡季不淡的特征。③盈利能力方面，考虑到公司整体归母 净利同比+68%、扣非归母净利同比+134%，公司玻纤收入/利润占比 较高，同时结合行业其他头 ...