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量化掘基系列之三十五:巴黎航展驱动下,如何把握航空航天行情?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 07:59
- The "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are constructed by selecting 50 securities related to the aviation industry from listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange, with listing times exceeding 1 year, and other securities listed for over 6 months. These indices reflect the price changes of securities related to the general aviation and aerospace industries in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges[3][28][30] - The "National General Aviation Industry Index" focuses on general aviation-related fields, including aviation materials, infrastructure, aircraft manufacturing, operational services, and application scenarios. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is limited to the aerospace sector under the National Level 3 industry classification[28][30] - The sample selection method for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" involves sorting securities by average daily market capitalization over the past six months and excluding the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" uses average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume for ranking and selection[28][30] - Weight distribution for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" limits individual stocks in the aircraft manufacturing sector to a maximum weight of 10%, while other sectors are capped at 2%. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" caps individual stock weights at 15%, with the top five stocks collectively limited to 60%[29][30] - As of June 5, 2025, the "National General Aviation Industry Index" covers 10 primary industries and 19 secondary industries, with 53.04% of its weight derived from the defense and military sector. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is highly concentrated, with 96.24% of its weight from the defense and military sector, specifically 52% from the aerospace sub-sector[31][36][37] - The valuation levels of the indices are relatively low. As of June 5, 2025, the price-to-book ratios (PB) for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 2.33x and 3.29x, respectively, corresponding to the 32.80% and 52.90% percentile ranges since February 16, 2015[43][46][48] - The "National Aerospace Industry Index" demonstrates stronger expected earnings growth. From 2025 to 2027, its earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.38 yuan to 0.78 yuan, while the "National General Aviation Industry Index" is expected to increase from 0.43 yuan to 0.76 yuan. Similarly, the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 195.81 billion yuan to 308.27 billion yuan for the "National Aerospace Industry Index," compared to 185.07 billion yuan to 317.63 billion yuan for the "National General Aviation Industry Index"[49][53] - The return on equity (ROE) for the indices is favorable. As of June 5, 2025, the ROE for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 3.35% and 2.82%, respectively, outperforming the "Aerospace Index" at 2.41%[54][57] - Dividend yields for the indices are relatively high. As of June 5, 2025, the dividend yields for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, exceeding the "China Military Index" at 0.58%[58][61]
2025年储能中期策略:大储延续高景气度,工商储市场爆发
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 07:04
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy storage industry, expecting a significant increase in installed capacity in the coming years, particularly driven by market reforms and policy support [4][12][100]. Core Insights - The transition from a policy-driven mandatory storage model to a market-driven approach is anticipated to enhance investment returns in energy storage, leading to rapid growth in installed capacity [4][12]. - The report highlights that companies with core technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and lifecycle service advantages are likely to dominate the market as it becomes more competitive [4][12]. - The introduction of market mechanisms, such as the "mechanism electricity price" and the establishment of a comprehensive electricity spot market by the end of 2025, is expected to further stimulate the energy storage sector [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice prohibiting the requirement of energy storage for new renewable energy projects, promoting market competition [5]. - Various provincial policies are being implemented to support energy storage, including financial subsidies and compensation standards for energy storage projects [5][6]. Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the newly installed capacity of energy storage projects in China was 5.03 GW, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but a significant increase is expected as the market adapts to new policies [7][12]. - The report forecasts that China's energy storage capacity will reach 54 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [12]. International Developments - In the U.S., the energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with new installations projected at 12.3 GW in 2024, driven by strong demand [16][19]. - European energy storage installations are also on the rise, with expectations of 12 GW in 2024, particularly in large-scale storage [33][34]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with established advantages in the energy storage sector, such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and Aters, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe and emerging markets [100].
交通运输产业行业研究:无人物流车:重构快递物流成本格局,落地应用迎来爆发
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 05:19
Investment Rating - The report recommends direct beneficiaries in the express delivery and logistics sector, specifically focusing on companies like SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also paying attention to franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4]. Core Insights - The demand for unmanned logistics vehicles is significant, providing cost reduction and efficiency improvements for express logistics companies. The unmanned logistics vehicle market has vast potential, with the city distribution market being a trillion-yuan market [2][18]. - The rapid decline in the cost of unmanned logistics vehicles, driven by advancements in technology and economies of scale, has laid the foundation for large-scale commercialization. For instance, the price of the new E6 model from Jiushi has dropped to 19,800 yuan, significantly lower than traditional logistics vehicles [2][29]. - Several listed express logistics companies have already invested in unmanned logistics vehicles, which will help them reduce costs and improve efficiency. For example, SF Holding has invested in 800 unmanned vehicles, potentially increasing profits by 4.6 billion yuan if all existing vehicles are replaced [3][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Logistics Vehicle Applications and Rapid Product Iteration - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for last-mile delivery in express logistics, with applications extending to closed-loop logistics and fresh food delivery [1][11]. - Multiple companies, including startups and established logistics firms, are offering unmanned vehicle products, with costs decreasing significantly [1][14]. 2. Significant Demand for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Unmanned logistics vehicles can replace city distribution capacity, with the city distribution market size reaching 1.429 trillion yuan in 2022 [18][20]. - The rapid advancement in technology and the reduction in product prices are driving demand, supported by government policies promoting the commercialization of unmanned delivery services [2][25]. 3. Listed Express Logistics Companies' Engagement in Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - SF Holding and its subsidiary have invested in unmanned vehicle manufacturers, with significant vehicle deployment planned [3][51]. - JD Logistics has initiated operations in nearly 30 cities, focusing on short-haul and grid warehouse models [3][51]. - Debon Logistics has also engaged in unmanned vehicle technology, with potential profit increases from replacing existing vehicles [3][51]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies directly benefiting from unmanned logistics vehicles, particularly SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also monitoring franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4].
超长信用债探微跟踪:超长信用债重归缩量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 13:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra - long credit bond market continues. Some investors prefer to extend the duration to earn excess returns as the yield of medium - and short - duration credit bonds is close to the annual low, and there is a constraint on the subsequent downward range [2][13] - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered, but the average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly. The coupon increase has promoted the recovery of the subscription sentiment, which has returned to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable, but the trading sentiment has cooled down in June. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, and the pricing of 5 - 7 - year long bonds has become extreme. The ultra - long - duration strategy is still recommended to be cautious [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The ultra - long credit bond market persists. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 336 compared with last week [2][13] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - Two special bonds for stable growth and expanded investment were issued in large quantities this week, with a total issuance scale of 39.5 billion, driving a significant increase in the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds. The average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly, and the coupon rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has risen to 2.42%. The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years has increased by 0.36%. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, with 140 fewer trading volumes compared with the previous week. Although the trading sentiment has cooled down in June, the TKN trading proportion of credit bonds over 7 years still shows a relatively high buying interest, and the deviation between trading yield and valuation has not fluctuated significantly. Public funds and wealth management have significantly reduced their increase in the scale of general credit bonds with a duration of 5 - 10 years. Insurance has become the main buyer of 15 - 30 - year bonds again, but its stability in buying long - term bonds this year is not as good as last year [4][31][42]
债市基本面高频数据跟踪:钢材转向累库:2025年6月第1周
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 13:53
生产:电厂日耗季节性回升 通货膨胀:农产品价格指数强于去年同期 CPI:猪价弱势运行 PPI:油价持续反弹 经济增长:钢材转向累库 需求:钢材转向累库 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样,恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性回升。6 月 10 日,6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 73.6 万吨,较 6 月 3 日的 72.6 万吨上涨 1.4%。6 月 6 日,南方八省电厂日耗为 171.8 万吨,较 5 月 29 日的 169.1 万吨上涨 1.6%。 (2) 高炉开工率温和回落。6 月 6 日,全国高炉开工率 83.5%,较 5 月 30 日下降 0.3 个百分点;产能利用率 90.6%, 较 5 月 30 日下降 0.1 个百分点。6 月 6 日,唐山钢厂高炉开工率 95.2%,较 5 月 30 日上升 1.7 个百分点。 (3) 轮胎开工率二次回落。6 月 5 日,汽车全钢胎(用于卡车)开工率 63.5%,较 5 月 29 日下降 1.3 个百分点;汽车 半钢胎(用于轿车)开工率 73.9%,较 5 月 29 日下降 4.4 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织 ...
计算机行业研究:激光雷达系列深度之五:AEBS新规催化标配预期,割草机+无人城配快速放量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 11:37
Investment Rating - The report recommends key global lidar leaders such as SUTENG and Hesai in the context of the accelerating release of non-automotive lidar applications [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that lidar is not only the "eye of intelligent driving" but also a "next-generation universal sensor" that is expected to cover all broad robotic scenarios in the future [5] - The intelligent lawn mower market is witnessing significant orders, and the robovan market is rapidly scaling from 1 to 10, validating the report's logic [5] - The report highlights that the automotive lidar market is accelerating upward due to cost reduction and policy catalysis, with L3/L4 advanced intelligent driving expected to create a "value inflation engine" for vehicles [5] Summary by Sections Automotive Market - The new AEBS regulations are expected to promote the standardization of lidar in vehicles, leading to both down-market and high-end growth [7] - For L2 and below models, the AEBS regulations may push for lidar to become standard in M1 and N1 vehicle types [11] - For L3 models, high-performance lidar and multi-lidar setups are becoming essential for domestic L3 vehicles [5][24] - The L4 market is seeing significant breakthroughs with major manufacturers deploying 7-10 lidar units in their fleets [5][31] Lawn Mower Market - The trend towards 3D perception is clear, with lidar becoming a necessary sensing solution for smart lawn mowers [5] - The report estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for lawn mower lidar could reach 6.4 billion yuan [5] - Leading lidar manufacturers are signing contracts with smart lawn mower clients, with order volumes exceeding one million units [5][7] Robovan Market - The report identifies robovans as a new market for ADAS lidar, with significant cost reductions in logistics [5] - The TAM for robovan lidar is projected to reach 40 billion yuan, indicating a substantial market opportunity [5] - Major lidar manufacturers are forming partnerships with leading robovan manufacturers, focusing on cost control and compliance with automotive-grade standards [5][31]
基金量化观察:首批科创综指增强策略ETF本周上市
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 09:51
- The report tracks the performance of enhanced index funds, highlighting that in the CSI 300 enhanced index fund category, the best performer last week was E Fund CSI 300 Selected Enhanced A (010736.OF), achieving an excess return of 1.14% relative to the benchmark[5][40][42] - In the CSI 500 enhanced index fund category, HuaAn CSI 500 Enhanced A (005607.OF) delivered an excess return of 0.59% last week[5][40][42] - For the CSI 1000 enhanced index fund category, E Fund CSI 1000 Quantitative Enhanced A (017094.OF) achieved an excess return of 0.84% last week[5][40][42] - In the Guozheng 2000 enhanced index fund category, Penghua Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A (017892.OF) performed the best, with an excess return of 1.04% last week[5][40][42] - Over the past year, the best performer in the CSI 300 enhanced index fund category was Anxin Quantitative Selected CSI 300 Enhanced A (003957.OF), achieving an excess return of 15.24%[41][42][43] - In the CSI 500 enhanced index fund category, ZhongOu CSI 500 Enhanced A (015453.OF) led with an excess return of 9.84% over the past year[41][42][43] - For the CSI 1000 enhanced index fund category, Dacheng CSI 1000 Enhanced A (018661.OF) achieved the highest excess return of 17.26% over the past year[41][42][43] - In the Guozheng 2000 enhanced index fund category, Huaxia Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A (019318.OF) delivered the best performance, with an excess return of 22.77% over the past year[41][42][43]
抢出口2.0缘何滞后?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 08:37
Group 1: Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[7] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[7] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. is approximately 42%, with about 40% of goods facing a 39.5% tariff[10] - Around 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff, while the average tariff for other regions is about 12%[10] - The tariff reduction has not significantly boosted the "export rush 2.0" effect, indicating limited recovery in U.S. demand[20] Group 3: Shipping and Demand Trends - Shipping rates to the U.S. increased significantly, with the CCFI index for the West and East U.S. routes rising by 21% and 23% respectively by June 6[14] - Container ship numbers from China to the U.S. showed a slight improvement in early June, but remained below levels seen before April[14] - U.S. import demand has been declining since April, with a drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[19]
广晟有色(600259):低估、高成长的华南稀土龙头
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 07:20
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 66.93 RMB based on a projected PE of 86x for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the rare earth industry in South China, with diversified operations in copper, tungsten, and other metals. The recovery in rare earth prices in Q1 2025 indicates a turning point for profitability [2][3]. - The implementation of export controls in April 2025 is expected to enhance price elasticity in the rare earth market, with domestic prices recovering to pre-export control levels [2][34]. - The company has significant internal mining resources that could double production, with a strong focus on smelting and magnetic materials [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key platform for rare earth resource integration in Guangdong, with a focus on a diversified non-ferrous metal industry chain [10][14]. - It is controlled by the Guangdong Rare Earth Industry Group, with the actual controller being the China Rare Earth Group [19][20]. Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth industry is experiencing price recovery due to export controls, with domestic prices expected to rise significantly [2][34]. - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in October 2024 will impose stricter controls on imported ores and secondary utilization, enhancing domestic pricing power [44][47]. Rare Earth Business - The company owns several rare earth mines and is expected to increase production from over 2,000 tons to over 5,000 tons with the addition of the ZuoKeng mine [3][18]. - The smelting segment is expected to see a recovery in sales and production in 2024, while the magnetic materials segment is progressing steadily [3][18]. External Assets and Investment Returns - The company has substantial external assets, indicating potential for significant asset injections [3][18]. - The copper and tungsten segments are well-positioned to contribute substantial investment returns, with the Dabaoshan copper mine expected to generate nearly 160 million RMB in investment income in 2024 [3][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.62 billion, 14.66 billion, and 15.80 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 262 million, 384 million, and 484 million RMB [4][8]. - The company is expected to achieve significant earnings per share growth, with EPS projected at 0.78, 1.14, and 1.44 RMB for 2025-2027 [4][8].
地产销售降温
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 05:50
汽车行业"价格战"严重,如果企业竞争过激烈或影响汽车质量与后期维修 受全球需求和国内需求不足等因素影响,国内价格下行压力加大,通缩持续 受工作不稳定、生活成本上升和房产贬值等影响,城镇消费者信心普遍下降 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 一、随着 924 政策效应逐渐减弱,地产销售下滑,二手房成交占比维持上行趋势。二、CPI 环比由涨转降,后续 CPI 或继续面临下滑压力。三、汽车销量继续维持韧性。四、资金到位率结束下降转为增长。五、按照 6 月第一周高频数 据进行估算,我们预计 GDP 同比增速或依旧在 5.2%左右, 风险提示 一、924 政策效应逐渐减弱,地产销售下滑 随着 2024 年 924 政策效应逐渐减弱,地产销售下滑明显。6 月第一周 30 大中城市商品房总成交面积为 20.6 万平方米, 前值为 32.3 万平方米,同比-17.2%。一、二、三线城市周成交面积分别为 7.3、9.4、3.9 万平方米,前值为 10.7、 14.5、7.2 万平方米,同比-21.1%、-20.4%、-0.0%。 二手房销售自 5 月下旬以来也有所降温,6 月第一周 11 个样本城市二手房日均销售面积为 19.0 万 ...