Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[5] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[5] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[5] Tariff Impact - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods by the U.S. is estimated at around 42%, with approximately 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5%[6] - About 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff rate, while the average tariff for other regions is around 12%[6] - The tariff reduction has not led to a significant increase in exports to the U.S., indicating limited immediate benefits[5][6] Trade Dynamics - There is a noted increase in China's exports to Africa (33%) and ASEAN (15%) in May, suggesting a shift towards re-exporting through these regions[6] - The shipping rates to the U.S. have increased significantly, with the CCFI indices for the East and West U.S. coasts rising by 21% and 23% respectively since May 9[9] - Despite the tariff adjustments, the overall demand for imports in the U.S. has declined, with a notable drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[11] Risks and Uncertainties - There remains considerable uncertainty regarding U.S.-China tariff policies, which could exert pressure on the Chinese economy[4][18] - The U.S. domestic economic uncertainty may lead to a decline in demand for Chinese goods, impacting future trade relations[4][18] - The potential for a rebound in Chinese exports to the U.S. in June is limited due to ongoing low shipping volumes compared to pre-April levels[10][13]

中坚 投资逻辑 供需矛盾加剧老龄化压力，政策协同推动养老机器人创新发展。我国已进入银龄社会，24 年底 65 岁及以上人口已达 2.20 亿，养老服务体系正面临人力资源短缺（持证护理员仅约 2 万）、从业人员结构失衡（40-60 岁女性护理人员占 比超 80%）等多重困境。为应对这一严峻形势，国家通过政策引导积极推动养老机器人产业发展，并于 25 年 2 月成功 牵头制定《互联家庭环境下使用的主动辅助生活机器人性能准则》国际标准，引领全球养老机器人产业发展。 涵盖医疗、智能家居、机器人等多条产业链，生态融合是发展关键。养老机器人作为融合医疗康复、日常照护及情感 陪伴等多功能于一体的智能化解决方案，其产业发展关键在于产业链协同与多业态融合。麦迪科技凭借医疗信息化优 势，携手优必选成立优麦机器人合资公司，并联合华为等产业巨头构建综合性康养机器人生态平台，通过资源整合突 破行业壁垒，建议持续追踪。 风险提示 人形机器人技术量产不及预期，技术路线发展不及预期，产业链主业业绩不及预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 老年群体痛点催生康复、护理、陪伴机器人，B+C 端市场空间五年规模有望超 170 亿。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 111 CNY per share based on a 40x PE ratio, leading to a target market value of 446 billion CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the panoramic and action camera industry, with a revenue CAGR of 60% from 2017 to 2024 and a net profit CAGR of 70% during the same period. The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues for the first half of 2025 ranging from 32.14 to 38.15 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.38% to 57.10% [2][3][4]. Company Overview - The company specializes in smart imaging devices, particularly panoramic and action cameras, and has a market share of 67.2% in the consumer panoramic camera segment, ranking first globally. The action camera segment is rapidly replacing foreign brands, with GoPro facing challenges due to slow product iteration and weaker profitability [3][14]. - The company has a strong product insight and definition capability, allowing it to deeply explore customer needs and provide leading complete solutions through hardware and software integration [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The outdoor sports market is expanding, leading to increased demand for action cameras. The global action camera market is projected to grow from 1.41 million units in 2017 to 4.46 million units in 2023, with a CAGR of 21.2% [54]. - The panoramic camera market is also growing, with a shipment of 196,000 units in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.1%. The market size is expected to expand further as the technology penetrates various professional fields [62][63]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.15 billion CNY, 14.64 billion CNY, and 17.75 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12.10%, 31.28%, and 21.25% [4][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 55.74 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 60% from 2017 to 2024 [33]. Investment and Development Plans - The company plans to issue up to 41 million shares to raise approximately 460 million CNY for the construction of a smart imaging device production base and a research and development center in Shenzhen [4][44]. - The production base aims to ensure stable production and supply, while the R&D center will enhance the company's innovation capabilities [44].

事件简评 公司于 6 月 9 日公布控股股东股份增持计划，公司控股股东公司 Juzi Holding 自公告之日起 3-6 个月内增持公司股份金额不低于 2 亿元港币，反映出控股股东对公司前景的坚定信心。 经营分析 Juzi Holding 现持有公司股份约 54.26%。若增持计划实施，按照 现价 61.2 港元股价估算，Juzi Holding 预计增持 326.8 万股，约 占总股本 0.3%，公司预计仍将维持足够公众持股量。公司董事会 认为，Juzi Holding 的增持计划反映控股股东对公司做出的长期 承诺以及对公司前景的坚定信心。 展望未来，公司将继续坚持树品牌、拓渠道、强报批的重点方向， 推进各项工作和公司综合实力的提升。1）产品端公司预计加大研 发投入，积累技术储备，做好三类医疗器械产品的临床申报审批工 作。将打磨更多好的产品和系列，洞察并满足更多的细分需求，丰 富旗下品牌的内涵。2）公司将加大在主力品牌的营销推广力度， 实现更大范围的破圈，并培育孵化新品牌，为护肤品业务迈上下一 个台阶打基础、做储备。①可复美：医用敷料大单品市占率领先， 胶原棒持续破圈、复购与用户结构健康、新客占比仍较高， ...

公司简介 公司为全景/运动相机行业龙头企业,17-24 年营收 CAGR 达 60%， 归母净利润 CAGR 达 70%。25Q1 营收同增 40.70%，归母净利润同降 2.50%，主要系公司推进全新产品线开发、技术升级及拓展，同时 加大线上营销、线下展会活动及直营店等方面的市场推广投入，研 发销售费用率增长。预计 25H1 营收 32.14-38.15 亿元，同增 32.38%-57.10%；净利润4.94-5.83亿元，同比变动-4.65%-12.49%。 投资逻辑： 受益户外运动者数量增多、社交网络视频普及，根据招股说明书及 Frost&Sullivan，运动相机市场规模逐步增长，从 2017 年 139.3 亿美元增长至 2023 年 314.4 亿美元，CAGR 达 13.8%；全景相机凭 借捕捉视角全面、创意多变且内容适配于各类终端设备等优势，23 年出货量为 196.0 万台，同比+30.1%，随着在户外运动、远程医 疗、智慧城市等专业领域不断渗透，市场规模将进一步扩大。 公司为全景相机全球龙头，运动相机品类加速替代海外品牌。根据 招股说明书及 Frost&Sullivan，2023 年公司在 ...

Market Overview - The convertible bond market has expanded significantly, with institutional investors accounting for over 90% of the market[3] - As of May 14, 2025, the market balance has decreased to 686.4 billion CNY, with 492 convertible bonds available[24] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a neutral to optimistic view on convertible bond investments, influenced by declining interest rates and a favorable equity market valuation[12] - The low-price strategy faces challenges due to credit risk, with a maximum drawdown of 14% in 2024, necessitating the development of "patching" and "replacement" strategies[4] Strategy Performance - The "patching" strategy has achieved an annualized return of 17.35% since 2018, doubling the traditional low-price strategy's performance, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.2 and a capacity exceeding 2.5 billion CNY[4] - The "replacement" strategy, focusing on options and low-volatility bonds, has delivered an annualized return of 14% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of less than 10% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.5[4] Dual-Low Strategy - The dual-low strategy has seen a decline in excess returns due to an increase in the conversion premium rate, which has risen to 70% since 2022[5] - The five-factor enhancement strategy for the dual-low approach has yielded an annualized return of 24% since 2018, with a maximum drawdown of less than 9%[5] Industry Rotation - The four-factor industry rotation strategy has achieved an annualized return of 26% since 2018, with a maximum drawdown of less than 11% and a Sharpe ratio above 2[6] Risk Considerations - The effectiveness of the convertible bond strategies is subject to historical data reliance, and the potential for model failure exists[7] - Risks include the possibility of stock delisting and changes in policy affecting convertible bonds[7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic PMI for May is below the threshold, indicating economic pressure despite slight improvements in orders[1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with a total of 95,000 jobs revised down for March and April combined[1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained at a high of 4.2% for three consecutive months, with initial jobless claims reaching 247,000, the highest since October 2024[1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from small-cap growth to large-cap value defensive strategies due to rising volatility in the market[1] - During the market bottom to profit bottom phase, growth dividends are expected to perform best, with median annualized returns of 34.5% and 41.1% respectively[2] - A constructed dividend rotation strategy has achieved a net value of 4.34 with an annualized return of 17.0% from 2016 to April 2025, outperforming the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[3] Group 3: Sector Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on growth-type dividends during the current market conditions, as they are expected to provide better returns[2] - Key sectors for investment include innovative pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, and service consumption, which are seen as growth-type dividend assets[4] - The report highlights structural opportunities in gold and technology sectors, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, as potential areas for investment[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include the potential for a "hard landing" in the U.S. economy and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in domestic exports[5] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and inflation could further impact market stability and investor sentiment[1]

核心观点 转债供给再审视。早在年初市场对浦发、以及高平价杭银/南银转债退出的预期较为充分，然而年内银行板块累计涨 幅接近 10%、更多银行转债的转股预期得以提升，当前齐鲁/常银/重银/上银平价都已达到 115 以上，如果以上银行转 债年内也完成转股，则年内单银行转债的转股&到期、就会导致转债规模减少超 1200 亿，也意味着转债有效供给的等 量减少；除银行转债以外，其余转债年内到期规模 134 亿；年初至今强赎退市转债已经超过 600 亿，预计下半年仍然 有不少强赎退出规模；待发层面当前证监会核准+发审委通过+交易所受理三个环节总共 420 亿元、即使下半年全部发 行规模也有限，且银行标的仅有个别。综合到期&退出以及潜在发行规模，下半年转债规模将持续收缩趋势，预计到 年底转债规模将减少至 6000 亿上下。转债供给（尤其是银行类转债）的减少会对需求造成何种影响？首先是 ETF 类 产品的再平衡需求，会挤出增量资金至其他标的；其次其他公募基金/保险/年金等的溢出配置，这部分虽无法精确测 算、但也有部分转移配置。总体而言，在转债规模持续收缩的背景下、需求还是会有一定溢出效应，尤其是在当前低 利率水平的背景下、资产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector shifted to "active destocking" [2][15][16] - The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries all entered the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [2][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Cycle Overview - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [7][8][9] 3.2 Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: It accounts for only 2% of the total inventory and returned to "active destocking" in April 2025 after three months [17] - **Mid - stream Industry**: It accounts for 54% of the total inventory, and most of it was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [18] - **Downstream Industry**: It accounts for 43% of the total inventory and was in the "active destocking" phase in April 2025 [19] - **Specific Industries**: In April 2025, electronics was in "passive restocking", electrical machinery was in "active restocking", chemical was in "passive restocking", paper - making, automotive, non - ferrous metals, instrument and meter, and general equipment were in "active destocking" [7]

···~ 商业贸易行业研究 2025 年 06 月 07 日 买入（维持评级） 行业深度研究 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 投资建议 外卖出海空间广阔，Keeta 出海掘金进行时 基本结论 一、中东+巴西具备人口红利，外卖市场规模持续增长。 渗透率+ARPU 提升驱动中东巴西外卖市场规模稳步增长。根据 Statista，1）用户端及用户渗透率：2024 年沙特外卖 市场用户数达 2120 万人，同比增长 15.2%，2024 年沙特外卖市场用户渗透率达 62.4%（23 年 53.5%），ARPU 同比增 长 4.3%至 507.54 美元。2024 年海湾合作委员会（GCC）人口总量虽达到 5986 万人，外卖市场用户数为 3090 万人， 沙特市场占比 68.6%，GCC 国家外卖市场尚存广阔的增量发展机遇。2024 年巴西外卖市场用户数达 9770 万人，同比增 长 11.1%，位居拉丁美洲第一，外卖市 ...