Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the smart driving industry, highlighting the rapid growth and adoption of intelligent driving systems in China [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the emergence of Chinese players in the smart driving sector, with significant advancements in technology and sales performance [9]. - It notes that various companies are launching new models and enhancing their intelligent driving capabilities, aiming for substantial sales targets in the coming years [9][17]. Summary by Sections Hongmeng Zhixing - Hongmeng Zhixing aims to challenge a sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2025, having already delivered over 444,956 vehicles in 2024, leading the new force in China's automotive market [9][12]. - The company reported a total of 2.64 billion kilometers driven using its intelligent driving assistance, with a user activity rate of 88.62% [12][14]. BYD - BYD has launched its advanced driving system "Tianshen Zhi Yan," which will be standard across all models priced above 100,000 yuan, marking a significant shift towards intelligent driving as a core purchasing criterion [16][17]. - In April 2025, BYD achieved a monthly sales figure of 213,325 intelligent driving vehicles, with a penetration rate of 71%, significantly outperforming competitors [17]. Xiaopeng Motors - Xiaopeng Motors reported a first-quarter revenue of 15.81 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with total deliveries reaching 94,000 units, marking a historical high [20][21]. - The company is set to launch the MONA M03 Max, featuring the AI Tianji system 5.7.0, which includes over 300 new functionalities [21]. Li Auto - Li Auto has refreshed its L series models, focusing on upgrades in design, chassis, and intelligent driving features, and plans to introduce a new generation of its VLA driver model later this year [25]. - The founder of Li Auto shared insights on the future of AI in driving, categorizing AI tools into three levels, emphasizing the potential for AI to evolve from information tools to production tools [25]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring several companies, including Huawei's smart vehicle initiatives and the Tesla supply chain, as well as various domestic players in the autonomous driving industry [26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the smart driving industry, highlighting significant advancements and sales growth among key players [7][26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid development and adoption of smart driving technologies in China, with companies like Hongmeng Zhixing, BYD, Xiaopeng Motors, and Li Auto leading the charge [9][16][20][25]. - Hongmeng Zhixing aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2025, having already delivered over 444,956 vehicles in 2024, making it the top seller among new forces in the Chinese automotive market [9][12]. - BYD's high-level smart driving system "Tianshen Zhi Yan" is set to become a standard feature across its models, with a penetration rate of 71% in April 2025, significantly outperforming competitors [17][19]. - Xiaopeng Motors reported a record high delivery of 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 141.5% year-on-year, showcasing strong market demand [20][21]. - Li Auto continues to innovate with its L series models, focusing on enhancing smart driving capabilities and integrating advanced AI technologies [25]. Summary by Sections Hongmeng Zhixing - The company is set to challenge the 1 million vehicle sales target by 2025, having achieved a delivery of 444,956 vehicles in 2024, leading the new forces in the market [9][12]. - In April 2025, the total mileage of smart driving assistance reached 264 million kilometers, with a user activity rate of 88.62% [12][14]. BYD - BYD launched its "Tianshen Zhi Yan" high-level smart driving system, which will be standard across all models priced above 100,000 yuan, indicating a shift towards smart driving as a core purchasing criterion [16][17]. - In April 2025, BYD sold 213,325 smart driving vehicles, achieving a 71% penetration rate, which is double that of its competitors [17][19]. Xiaopeng Motors - Xiaopeng Motors reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% increase year-on-year, with a total delivery of 94,000 vehicles, marking a historical high [20][21]. - The company is set to launch the MONA M03 Max, featuring the AI Tianji system 5.7.0, which includes over 300 new functionalities [21][24]. Li Auto - Li Auto has refreshed its L series models, focusing on advanced smart driving features and AI integration, with plans to introduce a new generation of driver models [25]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities with the support of advanced chips and AI technologies [25]. Suggested Focus Areas - Attention is recommended on companies involved in Huawei's smart vehicle initiatives, Tesla's supply chain, and the domestic autonomous driving industry [26].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustment is not a cause for concern, as the market has confirmed an upward trend and many indices and sectors are still in the early stages of recovery [8] - It is noted that the A-share market is currently at a mid-high odds level, with a favorable risk-reward ratio, indicating high investment value [18] - The report highlights that the 中证 A500 index is expected to yield a return of 22% over the next year, driven by significant valuation recovery and strong earnings support [16] Group 2 - The coal sector is identified as having reached a favorable configuration time, with the 中信煤炭指数 showing a positive trend despite recent price declines in coal [41] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as 中国神华 and 中煤能源, indicating a potential for performance improvement in the sector [42] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption sectors, particularly in the agricultural sector, are showing better-than-expected performance, indicating potential long-term investment opportunities [26] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of 海信视像, highlighting its dual-brand strategy and strong market presence in both domestic and international markets [37] - It is noted that the profitability of 海信 is expected to improve due to stable panel prices and a shift towards high-end products like MiniLED [38] - The report projects that the company will achieve significant revenue growth in its TV segment, driven by the increasing market share of high-end products [38] Group 4 - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector, particularly the snack industry represented by 盐津铺子, is focusing on core product development and expanding its market presence [40] - It highlights the importance of adapting to rapid changes in retail channels and enhancing supply chain efficiency to maintain profitability [40] - The report suggests that the pet-related industry is emerging as a new consumption trend, with significant growth potential in the coming years [27]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Steady Buyback Stock Pool **Construction Idea**: Categorize companies based on cash flow sources for buybacks, aiming to identify firms with sustainable shareholder returns[2][33][45] **Construction Process**: 1. Use the cash flow statement to calculate free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) and other financing metrics - Formula: $ FCFF = Operating Cash Flow + Interest Expense - Capital Expenditure $ **Explanation**: Operating cash flow represents cash generated from core business activities; interest expense accounts for debt costs; capital expenditure reflects investments in fixed assets[36][41] 2. Categorize companies into 8 groups based on FCFF, equity financing, and debt financing conditions[43][44] 3. Select stocks from groups 1, 2, and 5 (healthy shareholder return groups) to construct the pool[45][46] **Evaluation**: Represents a sustainable shareholder return strategy with relatively healthy financial conditions[46] - **Model Name**: Enhanced Steady Buyback Stock Pool **Construction Idea**: Improve the performance of the steady buyback stock pool using quality and valuation factors[59][62] **Construction Process**: 1. **Quality Factor**: Cash/Total Assets - Formula: $ Cash/Total Assets = Cash / Total Assets $ **Explanation**: Measures a company's liquidity and risk resistance[59][60] 2. **Valuation Factor**: EP-ROIC - Formula: $ EP-ROIC = Earnings Per Share (EP) - Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) $ **Explanation**: Evaluates the potential return from buybacks versus reinvestment opportunities[62][67] 3. Combine the two factors by standardizing and equally weighting them to select the top 50 stocks for the enhanced pool[63][68] **Evaluation**: Combines strong risk resistance and capital allocation ability, achieving higher returns with reduced drawdowns[68] Model Backtesting Results - **Steady Buyback Stock Pool**: - Annualized Return: 11.93% - Excess Return vs. Huazheng A-Share Buyback Index: 5.56%[45][51][54] - **Enhanced Steady Buyback Stock Pool**: - Annualized Return: 19.85% - Maximum Drawdown: 31.08% - Average Annual Excess Return vs. Huazheng A-Share Buyback Index (2020-2024): 14.65%[68][69][71] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Buyback Ratio **Construction Idea**: Measure the proportion of buyback amount relative to market capitalization[15] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ Buyback Ratio = Buyback Amount / Total Market Capitalization $ **Explanation**: Indicates the intensity of buyback activity[15][16] **Evaluation**: Limited differentiation among stocks, challenging to achieve excess returns through factor-based selection[17][20] - **Factor Name**: Cash/Total Assets **Construction Idea**: Assess liquidity and risk resistance of companies[59] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ Cash/Total Assets = Cash / Total Assets $ **Explanation**: Higher values indicate stronger financial stability[59][60] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates significant excess returns in the steady buyback stock pool[60] - **Factor Name**: EP-ROIC **Construction Idea**: Evaluate capital allocation efficiency during buybacks[62] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ EP-ROIC = Earnings Per Share (EP) - Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) $ **Explanation**: Higher values suggest undervaluation and better buyback opportunities[62][67] **Evaluation**: Shows strong excess returns in the steady buyback stock pool[67] Factor Backtesting Results - **Buyback Ratio**: No significant differentiation or excess returns observed[17][20] - **Cash/Total Assets**: - Annualized Return: 20.30% - Enhanced performance with minimal increase in volatility[60] - **EP-ROIC**: - Annualized Return: 18.58% - Demonstrates excess returns for companies with strong capital allocation ability[67] Additional Discussions - **Buyback ROI and Effectiveness**: **Construction Idea**: Measure the return and efficiency of buyback activities over a specific period[78] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ Buyback ROI = (Final Buyback Value + Dividends Avoided - Buyback Cost) / Buyback Cost $ **Explanation**: Evaluates the financial impact of buybacks, including avoided dividends and stock price changes[78][79] **Evaluation**: Limited effectiveness in A-shares due to inconsistent buyback practices[78][80] - **Impact of Buyback Purpose**: **Observation**: Companies with profit compensation as the buyback purpose underperform market benchmarks[74][75] **Evaluation**: Filtering out such companies improves portfolio performance[75] - **Dividend Timing Mismatch**: **Observation**: Adjusting dividend timing for grouping has minimal impact on results[76][77] **Evaluation**: Grouping based on cash flow remains robust despite timing differences[77]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 24 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周各维度变化不大，维持中性偏多 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比、宏观基本面、资金&趋势、拥挤 度&反转这四个维度分数均变化不大，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综 合打分为 0.18 分，整体为中性偏多观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如 下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用方向、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周增长方向、通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，当前 经济面得分为 0.75 分，综合来看发出看多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的分数变化不大，当前市场 的估值面得分为 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with Q1 FY2025 revenue reaching 1.923 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.9%, slightly exceeding previous guidance. Adjusted net profit for the same period was 764 million yuan, up 43.9% year-over-year [1] - The number of paying enterprise clients reached a record high of 6.4 million, reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase, indicating a recovery in recruitment demand [1][3] - The company is focusing on deepening penetration in the blue-collar sector and lower-tier cities, with over 45% of new users being from the blue-collar segment, contributing to a rise in revenue from this area [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2025, the gross margin was 83.84%, with a net profit margin of 26.63%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.44 percentage points [2] - The company expects revenue for Q2 FY2025 to be between 2.05 billion and 2.08 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 8.5% [1] User Growth and Market Trends - Monthly active users (MAU) averaged 57.6 million in Q1 FY2025, a year-over-year increase of 23.6% [1] - The recruitment market is showing signs of recovery post-Spring Festival, with an average new job postings growth of 17%-19% from January to April [3] Future Projections - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 3.31 billion yuan in FY2025, with year-over-year growth rates of 21.9%, 8.6%, and 10.9% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal sector is experiencing a turning point after a prolonged downturn, with signs of recovery emerging as coal prices stabilize [2][3] - The report highlights five key factors supporting the stabilization of coal prices, including reduced supply due to mine closures and increased demand from power plants as summer approaches [6][12] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,276.27 points, up 0.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.15 percentage points [2][76] - After a significant drop in coal prices, the market is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative increase of 4.10% in the CITIC Coal Index over the past three weeks [2] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Prices have stabilized around 620 CNY/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 9 CNY/ton. Supply remains stable, and demand is gradually improving as power plants increase consumption [6][32] - **Coking Coal**: The market remains weak, with prices for main coking coal types showing a downward trend. The report notes that supply has contracted slightly due to mine closures, but demand remains cautious [6][51] - **Coke**: Profit margins for coke producers have shrunk, but production levels are stable. The report indicates that demand is primarily driven by essential needs [6][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, all rated as "Buy" [7][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the coal sector, particularly for companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from market changes [8] Industry Insights - The report notes that the coal industry is expected to maintain its central role in China's energy system, with limited new supply expected in the coming years [6][33] - It highlights the importance of monitoring steel production and demand, as these factors significantly influence coking coal prices [6][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with Q1 FY2025 revenue reaching 1.923 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.9%, slightly exceeding previous guidance. Adjusted net profit for the same period was 764 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 43.9% [1] - The number of paying enterprises has reached a new high, indicating a recovery in recruitment demand. The average monthly active users (MAU) for Q1 FY2025 was 57.6 million, up 23.6% year-over-year and 9.3% quarter-over-quarter. The number of paying enterprise clients reached 6.4 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 12.3% [1][3] - The company is focusing on deepening its penetration in the blue-collar sector and lower-tier cities, with over 45% of new users being from the blue-collar segment. This has led to an increase in revenue contribution from blue-collar enterprises to over 39% [3] Financial Performance - For Q1 FY2025, the gross margin was 83.84%, with sales, R&D, and management expense ratios at 25.54%, 22.02%, and 13.80%, respectively. The net profit margin improved to 26.63%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 39.72% [2] - The company expects revenue for Q2 FY2025 to be between 2.05 billion and 2.08 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 8.5% [1] - The projected adjusted net profits for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 3.305 billion, 3.589 billion, and 3.979 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-over-year growth rates of 21.9%, 8.6%, and 10.9% [3] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 2.41 yuan for FY2025, with a P/E ratio of 27.5 and a P/B ratio of 3.5 [4] - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 5.952 billion yuan in FY2023 to 11.126 billion yuan in FY2027, with a CAGR of approximately 16.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Hisense Visual Technology [5][7]. Core Views - Hisense Visual Technology has achieved significant growth, becoming the second-largest player globally in the smart display terminal market, with a market share of nearly 14% and sales of 29.79 million units in 2024 [1][15]. - The company's growth is driven by a dual-brand strategy with Hisense and Vidda, targeting different market segments and benefiting from the domestic "trade-in" policy [1][18]. - Internationally, Hisense leverages an international marketing platform and refined operations to enhance its market share in key regions such as Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Why Has Hisense Achieved Global Second Place? - Hisense Visual Technology is a leading player in the smart display terminal sector, with a strong historical presence in the television market [15]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the domestic market for over a decade and has successfully expanded its international footprint [15]. 1.1 Domestic Sales: Differentiated Customer Acquisition with Hisense & Vidda - The domestic market has seen revitalization due to the "trade-in" policy, with significant sales growth expected [2][19]. - Hisense and Vidda target different price segments, with Vidda focusing on entry-level products and Hisense on mid to high-end offerings [2][21]. 1.2 International Sales: International Marketing Platform + TVS Refined Operations - Hisense operates through an international marketing platform and refined operations, focusing on core markets like Asia-Pacific and North America [3][19]. - The company has established a strong presence in North America through partnerships with major retailers [3]. 2. Can Profitability Continue to Improve? - Panel prices are stabilizing, which is crucial as they account for over 50% of television costs [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a controlled cost structure due to deep ties with panel manufacturers [4]. 2.1 Industry Chain: Panel Prices Entering a Stable Phase - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in panel prices, albeit with reduced volatility [4]. 2.2 High-End: MiniLED & Large Screen Trends Driving Product Structure Upgrades - The shift towards MiniLED and larger screens is enhancing product offerings, with significant revenue contributions expected from these segments [5]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.615 billion, 3.026 billion, and 3.497 billion respectively, with a reasonable market capitalization of 39.2 billion by 2025 [5][6]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the TV segment are projected at 13.5% and 8.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Steady Medical, and Bosideng, among others [12][36][37]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 23% year-on-year to $1.473 billion, driven by significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1][17]. - The Technical Apparel segment, led by the Arc'teryx brand, saw a revenue increase of 28% to $664 million in Q1 2025, with a notable profit margin improvement [2][21]. - The Outdoor Performance segment, centered around the Salomon brand, achieved a 25% revenue growth to $502 million, benefiting from new store openings and strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales [3][26]. - The Ball & Racquet segment, featuring Wilson, experienced a 12% revenue increase to $306 million, with a long-term growth forecast of low to mid-single digits [4][29]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sportswear sector, projecting a revenue growth of 15% to 17% for Amer Sports in 2025, with specific segments expected to outperform [1][17]. Summary by Sections Amer Sports Performance - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 23% to $1.473 billion, with regional growth of +12% in the Americas, +43% in Greater China, +12% in EMEA, and +49% in Asia-Pacific [1][17]. - Adjusted gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points to 58%, and adjusted operating profit margin rose by 4.9 percentage points to 15.8% [1][17]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was $135 million, a significant increase from $5 million in Q1 2024 [1][17]. Technical Apparel - Revenue for the Technical Apparel segment grew by 28% to $664 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 23.8% [2][21]. - Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 31%, while wholesale revenue grew by 22% [2][21]. - The Asia-Pacific region led growth, followed by Greater China [2][21]. Outdoor Performance - The Outdoor Performance segment's revenue rose by 25% to $502 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 14.7% [3][26]. - DTC sales surged by 68%, driven by new store openings in Greater China and Asia-Pacific [3][26]. - The Americas region's performance was stable, primarily due to the divestiture of the Enve business [3][26]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue for the Ball & Racquet segment increased by 12% to $306 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 6.6% [4][29]. - The growth was supported by strong sales in racquets, golf products, and apparel [4][29]. - Long-term revenue growth is expected to be low to mid-single digits [4][29]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [5][34]. - The sportswear sector is expected to benefit from government policy support and increased participation in sports activities [5][34].