- The "Odds + Win Rate Strategy" was constructed by combining the risk budgets of the odds strategy and the win rate strategy, resulting in a comprehensive score. The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 6.8% since 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. Since 2014, the annualized return was 7.4%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%. From 2019 onwards, the annualized return was 6.5%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%[3][46][48] - The "Small Cap Factor" is characterized by medium odds (0.1 standard deviation), strong trend (1.3 standard deviation), and low crowding (-1.1 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score has risen significantly to 3.2, indicating improved allocation value[19][20][21] - The "Value Factor" exhibits high odds (1.0 standard deviation), moderate trend (-0.2 standard deviation), and low crowding (-1.4 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score is 3, suggesting it is relatively favorable compared to other factors[21][23][34] - The "Quality Factor" currently shows high odds (1.2 standard deviation), moderate crowding (-0.2 standard deviation), but weak trend (-1.0 standard deviation). Its comprehensive score is -0.6, indicating lower allocation value[24][25][26] - The "Growth Factor" is in a high crowding state, with odds at 0.5 standard deviation, trend at 0.3 standard deviation, and crowding at 1.3 standard deviation. Its comprehensive score has dropped to -0.8, highlighting higher trading risks[27][28][29] - The "Odds-Enhanced Strategy" focuses on overweighting high-odds assets and underweighting low-odds assets under a target volatility constraint. Since 2011, it has achieved an annualized return of 6.7% with a maximum drawdown of 3.1%. From 2014, the annualized return was 7.5%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%. Since 2019, the annualized return was 7.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%[40][41][42] - The "Win Rate-Enhanced Strategy" derives macro win rate scores from five factors: currency, credit, growth, inflation, and overseas. Since 2011, it has achieved an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of 3.4%. From 2014, the annualized return was 8.1%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.2%. Since 2019, the annualized return was 7.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 1.5%[43][44][45]

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - A-share earnings show marginal improvement with accelerated revenue growth in Q3 2025 [4] - DuPont analysis indicates that profitability, operational efficiency, and financial leverage are all under pressure [4] - The inventory cycle is stabilizing at the bottom, with weakened capacity utilization and low expansion indicators [4] - Overall cash flow is recovering, although operational performance is weakening, investment is declining, and financing is increasing [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a 9.5% increase in January and a 15.2% increase in March, with a 2.4% increase over the year [2] - The banking sector experienced a 5.9% increase in January but a 4.1% decrease in March, with a 13.7% increase over the year [2] - The steel industry had a 3.7% increase in January, a 9.1% increase in March, and a significant 23.7% increase over the year [2] - The automotive sector saw a decline of 3.6% in January, but a 24.3% increase over the year [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Rongtai Co., Ltd. focuses on the automotive aluminum die-casting sector and is expanding into robotics, with major clients including Bosch and Thyssenkrupp [9][10] - The company aims for a revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year or a net profit growth of over 15% by 2025 [9] - SanKe Tree reported a 2.69% year-on-year revenue increase to 93.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant 81.22% increase in net profit [15][16] - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue reached $33.1 billion, a 40.8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.5% [18][19] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a 56.8% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 125% [21][22] - Muyuan Foods reported a 27% increase in pig sales in the first three quarters of 2025, with a steady decline in production costs [23] - Yaxiang Integrated reported a 40% increase in Q3 2025 performance, driven by improved gross margins and overseas orders [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, based on strong AI demand and gradual capacity release [3][5]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, surpassing the previous guidance of $31.8-$33 billion [1]. - The company's gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, 2% higher than the upper guidance limit, attributed to cost improvements and increased capacity utilization [1]. - TSMC's net profit for the quarter was $15.1 billion, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year growth [1]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) has steadily increased, with 74% of total wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [1]. Demand Perspective - AI demand has strengthened compared to three months ago, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 57% of revenue in Q3 2025, followed by smartphones at 30% [2]. - Despite geopolitical impacts on shipments to mainland China, TSMC remains confident in achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next few years [2]. Supply Perspective - TSMC is continuing its capacity expansion plans, with multiple 2nm fabs being prepared in Taiwan and accelerated expansion in Arizona, USA, to meet strong AI demand [2]. - The company is also acquiring additional land to support its expansion plans, with ongoing construction of a second fab in Japan and progress on a special process fab in Dresden, Germany [2]. Financial Guidance - For Q4 2025, TSMC projects revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, with a gross margin range of 59.0%-61.0% [3]. - The company has raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $40-$42 billion, up from the previous range of $38-$42 billion [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at NT$3.72 trillion, NT$4.50 trillion, and NT$5.51 trillion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 21%, and 22% respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's projected net profit for 2025 is NT$1.65 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [4]. - The company's earnings per ADS are expected to be $10.37 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 28x for 2026 [4]. - Key financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 29.6% in 2025, with a projected P/B ratio of 8.5 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high profit margin in Q3 2025, with revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 125% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in profit margins is attributed to scale effects, a higher proportion of silicon photonics shipments, and increased sales of 800G and 1.6T products [1]. - The company is experiencing significant inventory growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to meet future demand [1]. - The company is benefiting from the global ramp-up of 800G optical modules and is entering the production ramp-up phase for 1.6T products, with expectations for strong growth in the coming quarters [2]. - The company has developed capabilities for 3.2T products and is actively exploring advanced areas such as LPO/LRO and CPO, laying the groundwork for diversified future demand [2]. - The potential market space for scale-up is projected to be 5-10 times that of scale-out, positioning the company to lead in the next round of technological upgrades [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 35.28 billion yuan in 2025, 72.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 102.64 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 47.8%, 106.8%, and 40.7% respectively [5]. - The net profit is expected to reach 10.40 billion yuan in 2025, 22.28 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 114.2%, and 40.7% respectively [5]. - The report projects an increase in EPS to 9.36 yuan in 2025, 20.05 yuan in 2026, and 28.22 yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 50.5 in 2025 to 16.8 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [5].

Group 1 - A-share earnings growth shows marginal improvement, with cumulative net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 at 5.54% and 1.89% respectively, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter change of 2.89 and 0.59 percentage points [1][17][20] - Revenue growth in A-shares has accelerated, marking four consecutive quarters of recovery, with cumulative revenue growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 at 1.40% and 0.76% respectively, with quarter-on-quarter changes of 1.22 and 0.94 percentage points [2][28][29] - The technology TMT, midstream manufacturing, and financial sectors have shown superior earnings growth, with cumulative net profit growth in Q3 2025 for these sectors at 21.43%, 12.90%, and 6.48% respectively [3][25][44] Group 2 - The DuPont analysis indicates that profitability, operational efficiency, and financial leverage have all negatively impacted the return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares, with Q3 2025 ROE at 6.38%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.76% [4][49][52] - The inventory cycle for non-financial A-shares is stabilizing at the bottom, with signs of a shift from passive to active inventory replenishment, although fixed asset turnover continues to decline, indicating an ongoing supply-demand imbalance [5][6][4] - Cumulative net profit growth for industries with high growth and marginal improvement in Q3 2025 includes steel, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, while cumulative revenue growth in these sectors also showed significant improvement [3][44][46]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is deeply engaged in the automotive aluminum die-casting sector and is expanding into the robotics field through acquisitions, aiming for new growth momentum [1][3]. - The company has established a strong customer base, with the top five clients accounting for 84% of revenue by 2024, including major players like Bosch and Thyssenkrupp [1][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of automotive lead screws and the expansion into new energy vehicle components, projecting significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Automotive Lightweight Die-Casting and Robotics Core Sector - The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of automotive aluminum die-casting parts and is entering the core components of humanoid robots [13]. - It has a history of expanding its business and enhancing its global strategy since its establishment in 2000, including partnerships with Bosch and the establishment of production bases in Mexico and Thailand [13][48]. 2. Financial Performance and Structural Optimization - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2024, driven by the lightweight trend in new energy vehicles [22]. - Revenue from automotive-related businesses increased from 0.9 billion to 1.9 billion from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 21% [23]. - The gross margin has remained stable between 22% and 24% over the past three years, with a slight increase in 2024 [28]. 3. Steering Business: Accelerating Smart Steering System Transformation - The domestic market for automotive aluminum die-casting parts is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2021 to 2030, with the market size reaching 186.3 billion in 2023 [37]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading global firms, enhancing its competitive advantage through a global production layout [46]. 4. Robotics Business: Joint Ventures in the Robotics Sector - The company has formed joint ventures to enter the robotics lead screw market, leveraging high-precision products recognized by military research institutions [3]. - The acquisition of a motor company aims to enhance its capabilities in the robotics motor sector, creating product synergy [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.78 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [1]. - The company has improved production efficiency and reduced costs, with a total cost of sales for pigs in Q3 at 11.7 yuan/kg, showing a steady decline in costs over the months [1]. - The company has responded to national capacity control measures by reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7% [1]. - The slaughtering business has shown significant improvement, with 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and achieving profitability in Q3 [2]. - The company is exploring overseas market opportunities for future growth, indicating a strategic direction for capital expenditure [2]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.667 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, followed by an increase of 124.9% in 2026, and a decrease of 25% in 2027 [2]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 17.5x, with a projected EPS of 2.87 yuan [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 137.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 40% in Q3, exceeding expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 3.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 440 million yuan, an increase of 0.8% [1][2]. - The improvement in gross margin, which increased by 11 percentage points in Q3, has significantly enhanced the company's profitability, driven by the favorable profitability of overseas large orders [2][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with approximately 6.7 billion yuan in uncompleted contracts expected to support significant revenue growth in the coming year as these projects enter the construction phase [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year, with quarterly revenues of 840 million, 850 million, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 440 million yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable 40% increase in Q3 [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 21.76%, up 8.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a Q3 gross margin increase of 11 percentage points [2]. Order Backlog and Future Outlook - As of the end of 2024, the company disclosed an uncompleted order amount of approximately 3 billion yuan, with significant new contracts won in 2025, including a 3.2 billion yuan project and a 1.58 billion yuan project [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power, which is driving semiconductor capital expenditure recovery, leading to sustained overseas order growth [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 735 million, 994 million, and 1.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.44, 4.66, and 5.95 yuan per share [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 9, and 7 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating attractive valuation levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the C-REITs sector [7] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the market's acceptance of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [6] - The C-REITs market has shown a mixed performance in Q3, with notable differences in earnings across various sectors [1][3] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.06% this week, while the closing index decreased by 0.14%, settling at 814.9 points as of October 31 [12] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 8.04%, ranking fifth among major indices [2][12] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has stabilized, with data center and consumer infrastructure sectors performing well, while industrial parks and logistics sectors experienced a pullback [3][14] - As of October 31, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 220.17 billion, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion per REIT [3][14] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with top performers including Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.9% and Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4% [5] - Price-to-NAV ratios range from 0.7 to 1.8, with notable values including Jiashi China Electric Power Clean Energy REIT at 1.8 and Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 0.7 [5] Trading Activity - The consumer infrastructure sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 2.473 million shares and a turnover rate of 1.2% [4][17] - The average daily trading volume for listed REITs this week was 2.473 million shares, indicating robust market engagement [4][17]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The economic changes in the recent half month include a continued reduction in operating rates for high furnace and coking enterprises, leading to a rebound in prices for bulk commodities like coal, iron ore, and rebar. October real estate sales showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with new home sales down 16.3% year-on-year and second-hand home sales down 7.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to maintain a strong growth rate of around 6% [5][7]. - The October manufacturing PMI experienced a seasonal decline, remaining below the baseline for seven consecutive months, primarily due to pre-holiday demand release and international environmental disturbances. Conversely, the service sector PMI showed a counter-seasonal increase driven by holiday travel and early consumption activities [7][9]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The coal sector is expected to see price increases as supply constraints persist, with the current low inventory levels and seasonal demand expected to drive prices up. The focus is on companies like China Shenhua and Yancoal [33][34]. - The steel sector is facing a supply-demand tension due to limited coking coal supply, while demand remains robust. The recommendation is to focus on companies with strong performance such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining [34][36]. - In the beverage sector, the white liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with a recommendation to invest in brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, while the broader consumer goods market is expected to benefit from structural growth in beverage and snack categories [20][22]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Longi Green Energy reported a narrowing loss and improved cash flow, driven by the ramp-up of BC technology, which is creating a competitive edge [25]. - Jifeng Automotive reported a revenue of 16.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, but a significant profit increase of 147% due to cost reduction measures and the sale of a loss-making subsidiary [28][30]. - The environmental monitoring sector is poised for growth due to new regulations promoting soil remediation and capacity replacement, with companies like High Energy Environment and Focused Technology recommended for investment [32].