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固定收益定期:一文全览科创债
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's "Tech Board" has been launched, with policies encouraging, improving issuance mechanisms, and providing financing support, which is expected to gradually expand the science and technology innovation bond (Sci - tech Bond) market [1][5][9][10][50]. - The proportion of long - term Sci - tech Bonds may increase as issuers are encouraged to issue long - term bonds and risk - sharing tools are created [5][10][50]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Bonds will become more diverse, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions [9][10][50]. - The participation of institutional investors in Sci - tech Bonds is expected to increase, and the overall market valuation may be compressed [5][50][51]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Market "Tech Board" Launched - On May 7, 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced support for three types of market entities (financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions) to issue Sci - tech Bonds. Nearly 100 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of Sci - tech Bonds [9]. - On May 8, the PBOC and CSRC jointly issued an announcement with measures to support the issuance of Sci - tech Bonds, including enriching product systems, improving support mechanisms, and creating risk - sharing tools [10][11]. 2. Development History of Sci - tech Thematic Bonds - In 2016, the CSRC promoted the pilot issuance of dual - innovation bonds (Dual - innovation Bonds). In 2017, Dual - innovation Bonds entered the regular issuance stage [2][12]. - In 2021, the exchange piloted the issuance of Sci - tech Bonds, which became regular after 2022. In 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued guidelines for the issuance and listing review of Sci - tech Bonds [2][13]. - In 2021, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) launched high - growth enterprise debt financing instruments, which were upgraded to Sci - tech Notes in 2022 [2][14]. 3. Overview of Sci - tech Bond Issuance and Outstanding Amounts 3.1 Sci - tech Bond Issuance - As of May 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes reached 2.67 trillion yuan, with 1.29 trillion yuan for Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and 1.38 trillion yuan for Sci - tech Notes [3][18]. - From 2021 - 2024, the issuance of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds increased annually. As of May 5, 2025, the issuance in 2025 was 193.293 billion yuan. The issuance terms were mainly 3 - 10 years, and the proportion of long - term bonds increased in 2024 [19]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds are mainly AAA - rated central and local state - owned enterprises. The industries with large issuance scales are construction decoration, comprehensive, and public utilities [23][25]. - From 2022 - 2024, the supply of Sci - tech Notes increased annually. As of May 5, 2025, the issuance in 2025 was 207.971 billion yuan. Sci - tech Notes include various bond types, mainly medium - term notes and short - term financing bills, with relatively short issuance terms [27][29]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Notes are also mainly AAA - rated central and local state - owned enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprises is higher than that of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds. The industries with large issuance scales are construction decoration, non - ferrous metals, and coal [31][33]. 3.2 Sci - tech Bond Outstanding Market - As of May 5, 2025, the outstanding amounts of Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes were 1.2086 trillion yuan and 688.5 billion yuan respectively. The outstanding bonds have the following characteristics: strong issuer qualifications (87% of external ratings are AAA), remaining terms concentrated within 5 years, mainly issued by central and local state - owned enterprises, and issuer industries concentrated in traditional industries [3][37]. - There is room to explore the yield of outstanding Sci - tech Bonds. The proportion of outstanding bonds with a valuation of over 2.1% is 49% for both Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes. It is recommended to focus on AA - rated Sci - tech Corporate Bonds and Sci - tech Notes within 1 year [4][45][47]. 4. Impact of the Bond Market's "Tech Board" Launch - The Sci - tech Bond market is expected to expand gradually due to policy encouragement, improved issuance mechanisms, and financing support [5][50]. - The proportion of long - term Sci - tech Bonds may increase as issuers are encouraged to set flexible bond terms and risk - sharing tools are created [5][10][50]. - The issuers of Sci - tech Bonds will become more diverse, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions [9][10][50]. - The participation of institutional investors in Sci - tech Bonds is expected to increase, and the overall financing cost of Sci - tech Bonds may improve, leading to a potential compression of the overall market valuation [5][50][51].
投资策略:财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 06:23
证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题:供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日,A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕,我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 从供需格局的角度,有两类行业值得关注,第一类是左侧思路的"供给出 清"行业,即库存与产能均处于较为明显的出清状态,在需求能够保持稳 定甚至高速增长的背景下,上述行业有望凸显盈利弹性,25Q1 具备上述 特征的行业主要包括塑料、通用设备、游戏、种植业、小金属、光学光电 子、通信服务。 即国内需求存在压力的情况下,海外收入占比较高的出口链有望取得独立 景气,我们结合 2024 年上市公司主营构成与海关总署披露的出口数据对 各行业海外收入占比进行测算,当前全球出口链重点行业包括其他家电、 消费电子、航运港口、小家电、工程机械等。 第二类行业是右侧思路的"强势扩产"行业,即营收高速增长反映需求旺 盛,同时产能扩张处于较高水平,未来有望通过提高产量推动利润扩张, 25Q1 具备上述特征的行业主要包括其他电子 ...
财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理-20250512
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 05:42
证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题:供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日,A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕,我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息:交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE( TTM)对预期股息率 进行测算,高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是,今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升,包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点:变盘仍未结束,静待方向明确 大势研判:本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性,ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少,而 A 股仍然稳中有升,同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出,受海内外因素影响,市场处于变盘点,需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换:特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看,我们 ...
星宇股份:合作优质客户,业绩增长稳健-20250512
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.095 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.3%, with a net profit of 322 million yuan, up 32.7% year-on-year [1] - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, leading to sustained growth in automotive consumption, with a diverse customer base including major brands like Volkswagen, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz [1][2] - The company has optimized its customer structure and improved profitability through strong cost control, with a net profit margin increase from 10.06% in Q1 2024 to 10.41% in Q1 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.511 billion yuan, 20.460 billion yuan, and 25.398 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 23.9%, and 24.1% [4] - The net profit is expected to reach 1.919 billion yuan, 2.486 billion yuan, and 3.125 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36.3%, 29.5%, and 25.7% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 6.72 yuan, 8.70 yuan, and 10.94 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Strategic Development - The company is deepening its domestic presence while expanding into Europe and the US, with a focus on R&D and partnerships with firms like Huawei [3] - The company has entered the supply chain of foreign luxury brands and is in a new phase of globalization with the establishment of factories in Europe and Mexico [3]
星宇股份(601799):合作优质客户,业绩增长稳健
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 02:30
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 星宇股份(601799.SH) 合作优质客户,业绩增长稳健 事件。公司 2025Q1 实现收入 30.95 亿元,同比增长 28.3%,归母净利润 3.22 亿元,同比增长 32.7%,毛利率 18.8%,净利率 10.4%。 合作优质客户,业绩增长稳健。2024H2 起,受益以旧换新政策拉动,汽 车消费持续向好,公司客户覆盖广,已合作大众系、丰田系、奔驰、宝马、 奇瑞汽车、理想汽车、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、赛力斯等,且配套车型持续 高端化。2025Q1,公司客户奇瑞、小鹏、赛力斯 M9 等销售表现较好,同 比增长分别为 17%/331%/117.8% ,带动公司总收入 / 利润增长 28.3%/32.7%。 客户结构持续优化,强费控带动盈利能力提升。2024 年,公司承接了多 家客户共 69 个车型的新品研发项目,实现了 40 个车型的项目批产,且部 分项目在市场上引发高度关注。公司与华为合作配套问界 M9 的智能大灯, 单车价值量高,随着产能逐渐爬坡,M9 在 2024 年交付 15 万辆,高端项 目收入贡献持续增加,20 ...
央行一季度货币政策报告6大信号:专栏多达6个
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 23:57
Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates that several incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly focusing on fiscal stimulus, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing foreign trade, including potential budget increases and the issuance of special bonds [5] - CPI and PPI have shown negative growth for three consecutive months, primarily due to insufficient demand, with the central bank highlighting the ongoing imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy [6][7] - April exports exceeded expectations, driven by "transshipment" to ASEAN and new markets in Africa and India, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [9] Group 2: Energy Sector - The energy sector's overall performance is improving, with thermal power showing differentiated growth, hydropower improving, and green energy facing pressure; future electricity demand is expected to recover as fuel costs decline [25][26] - Recommendations include focusing on undervalued thermal power stocks and green energy operators, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential [26] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The report highlights the strong market position of Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) as a leading player in Jiangsu's liquor market, with ongoing product upgrades and expansion efforts expected to enhance market share [27][28] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projections indicating continued increases in earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years [28][29] Group 4: Electronics Sector - Ruixinwei (603893.SH) is positioned as a leader in the AIoT SoC platform, with substantial revenue growth and profitability improvements expected in the coming years, driven by a robust product matrix and market demand [31][32] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience structural recovery, with AI technology penetration and domestic substitution driving growth across various segments [22][24]
电力行业周报:山东首发136号文细化方案,攻守兼备破局新能源入市
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 14:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong 136 document details a balanced approach to the entry of new energy into the market, providing stability for existing projects while enhancing competition for new projects [3][12][13] - For existing projects, the mechanism price is set at a cap of 0.3949 CNY/kWh (including tax), which aligns with the coal benchmark price in Shandong [13] - For new projects, a bidding capacity requirement of 125% is established, which increases competitive pressure and accelerates the exit of high-cost projects, pushing for efficiency and cost reduction in new energy projects [3][12][13] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and better short-term revenue certainty, as well as high-quality flexible power sources like thermal and hydropower [3][12][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 2.04% increase in the CITIC Power and Utilities Index during the week of May 6-9 [65][66] - The report notes a decline in coal prices to 643 CNY/ton [14] Key Projects and Developments - The Shandong provincial government has issued a detailed implementation plan for the market-oriented reform of new energy pricing, marking a significant step in the industry [3][12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of auxiliary service market transactions and price mechanisms, as well as optimizing capacity compensation mechanisms for power generation [13] Key Stocks and Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) with a buy rating - Anhui Energy Power (000543.SZ) with a buy rating - Guodian Power (600795.SH) with a buy rating - Huaneng International (600011.SH) with a buy rating - New Energy (688501.SH) with a buy rating - New天绿色能源 (600956.SH) with a buy rating [8][78]
明阳智能(601615):业绩短期承压,风机盈利有望改善
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 14:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 27.158 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 7.07% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the underperformance in the sales of wind turbines and related components, which generated 20.833 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.40% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerating development of offshore wind power in Europe, with a forecast of 19 GW of new offshore wind capacity globally in 2025 [3] - The company aims to enhance its profitability through technological advancements in offshore wind turbines and the development of large-scale onshore wind turbines [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 8.1%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 1.37%, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 51.78% year-on-year, reaching 7.704 billion yuan, although the net profit decreased slightly by 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.383 billion yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 10 times [4][3]
山东首发136号文细化方案,攻守兼备破局新能源入市
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 13:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong 136 document details a balanced approach to the entry of new energy into the market, providing stability for existing projects while enhancing competition for new projects [3][12][13] - For existing projects, the mechanism price is set at a cap of 0.3949 CNY/kWh (including tax), which aligns with the coal benchmark price in Shandong [13] - For new projects, a bidding capacity requirement of 125% is established, which increases competitive pressure and accelerates the exit of high-cost projects, pushing for efficiency and cost reduction in new energy projects [3][12][13] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and better short-term revenue certainty, as well as high-quality flexible power sources like thermal and hydropower [3][12][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The Shandong 136 document was released on May 7, detailing the market-oriented reform implementation plan for new energy pricing [13] - The coal price has dropped to 643 CNY/ton [14] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges reservoir have decreased by 17.39% and 47.66% year-on-year, respectively [36] - Silicon material prices have decreased to 39 CNY/kg, and mainstream silicon wafer prices have dropped to 1.18 CNY/unit [50] - The national carbon market trading price has decreased by 2.24% this week [60] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3342.00 points, up 1.92%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 3846.16 points, up 2.00% [65] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2904.26 points, up 2.04%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.04 percentage points [65] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) - Buy - Anhui Energy Power (000543.SZ) - Buy - Guodian Power (600795.SH) - Buy - Huaneng International (600011.SH) - Buy - New Energy (688501.SH) - Buy - New Tian Green Energy (600956.SH) - Buy [8]
煤炭开采行业周报:跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 12:23
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 煤炭开采 跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠 行情回顾(2025.5.6~2025.5.9): 中信煤炭指数 3,191.92 点,上涨 1.47%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.53pct,位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 近期,煤炭上市公司的 24 年年报&25 年一季报已披露完毕,我们从另外一个视角 对相关公司财报进行解析,总结如下: 谁是现金王? ✓ "账面净现金"前 3:神华、陕煤、晋控; ✓ "账面净现金/净利"前 3:晋控、潞安、恒源; 谁的负债低? ✓ "资产负债率"最低前 3:神华、晋控、电投; ✓ "资本负债率"最低前 3:潞安、晋控、神华; 谁的家底厚? ✓ "专项储备"绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、潞安; ✓ "吨煤专项储备"前 3:潞安、淮矿、恒源; 谁的潜力大? ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3:昊华、伊泰、淮矿; 谁是分红王? ✓ 近 3 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、兖矿; ✓ 近 3 年比例前 3:冀中、神华、广汇; ✓ 24 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、中煤; ✓ 24 年比例前 3:冀中、广汇、伊泰; ✓ ...