Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of retail through the expansion of multi-category discount formats, particularly focusing on the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" in Jiangsu, which combines various store types and aims for rapid franchise expansion [1][4][10] - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" has successfully opened six stores in Jiangsu, emphasizing a community-centric approach with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][24] - The product mix includes fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a selection of daily necessities, positioning the store more as a food supermarket rather than a simple discount retailer [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its franchise model with multiple store types, aiming to adapt to various market needs and consumer preferences [1][10] - The company has introduced a diverse range of products, including fresh produce and baked goods, while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness and quality [2][11] 2. Store Layout and Customer Experience - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, enhancing the shopping experience and encouraging cross-selling among different product categories [3][20] - The stores feature a significant display area for selected SKUs, which contrasts with the dense layout of traditional supermarkets, thereby improving visibility and accessibility [20] 3. Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy continues to emphasize value, with many products priced significantly lower than competitors like Hema and traditional supermarkets, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [21][23] - The report provides specific pricing comparisons, showing that many items are offered at discounts ranging from 50% to 80% compared to other retailers [23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the industry is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with leading companies like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang poised to capitalize on their established supply chains and operational efficiencies [4][26] - The potential for further market penetration and the introduction of additional store formats is highlighted as a key growth driver for the industry [4][26]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 基础化工 机器人腱绳：渗透加速，重视超高分子量聚乙烯 机器人腱绳赋能灵巧手灵活度、轻量化，渗透前景广阔。据中国信息通信 研究院预测：2045 年我国人形机器人将步入 Lv5 阶段，对应市场规模达 10 万亿级别。灵巧手作为一种新型的末端执行器逐步替代传统夹持器，在 人形机器人与环境的交互中起到关键作用，占整机价值量 18%。 目前灵巧手的传动方案主要包括传统的连杆传动、齿轮传动、腱绳传动。 其中连杆传动、齿轮传动存在结构复杂、重量大、柔性不足、空间配置要 求高、远距离控制困难等劣势。腱绳传动通过模拟人手"肌腱"结构，使 得大型的驱动器远离了执行机构，减轻末端的负载和惯量，提升了抓取的 速度、精度。同时，腱绳传动布局灵活，在轻量化的同时适合空间狭小且 需要驱动自由度数目较多的传动场景。 机器人腱绳的市场空间有多大？2024 年 10 月，特斯拉发布第三代人形机 器人 Optimus GEN-3，其灵巧手采用行星齿轮箱+丝杠+腱绳结构，自由 度由 11 个翻倍提升至 22 个。我们测算 22 自由度下腱绳单机价值量约 3520 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 A 股一季度报盈利特征&5 月市场观点 今日概览 重磅研报 【策略】A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一）— —20250506 研究视点 【食品饮料】零售变革草根调研（二）四川零食有鸣批发超市：多品类 折扣先行者，千店规模优势深厚——20250506 【通信】润泽科技（300442.SZ）-改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势 未改——20250506 【电新】同飞股份（300990.SZ）-25Q1 毛利率环比持续提升，期待公司 数据中心、半导体温控收入放量——20250506 作者 | 分析师 熊园 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518050004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiongyuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 美容护理 | 15.6% | 12.4% | -4.2% | | 计算机 | 14.6% | -1 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: CDS Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the 20-day difference signal of China's sovereign CDS as a timing indicator for Hong Kong stocks, leveraging the negative correlation between CDS and stock performance[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day difference of China's sovereign CDS 2. Use the signal to time Hong Kong stock investments 3. Evaluate the annualized excess return relative to the benchmark - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong fit with Hong Kong stock returns and provides a reliable timing signal[12][13] 2. Model Name: Duration Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the expected return of government bonds for any duration and holding period using a multi-step process[17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Decompose government bond yields 2. Predict interest rates using modeling techniques 3. Simulate scenarios via Monte Carlo methods 4. Calculate expected returns for different durations and holding periods - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective for short-term bond timing and provides actionable insights for duration allocation[17][19] 3. Model Name: Equity Index Return Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict the future returns of broad-based indices using a combination of macroeconomic and valuation factors[22][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use macroeconomic indicators and valuation metrics 2. Apply the model to predict returns for indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. 3. Compare predicted returns to historical benchmarks - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows strong predictive power for large-cap indices like CSI 300, while small-cap indices like CSI 500 exhibit lower reliability[22][27] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Evaluate industries based on momentum, turnover, volatility, and beta to identify rotation opportunities[60] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate 12-month information ratios for industry momentum 2. Assess turnover, volatility, and beta for crowding metrics 3. Combine these dimensions to rank industries - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively identifies high-potential industries and provides actionable rotation insights[60][63] 5. Model Name: Odds + Win Rate Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine odds and win rate metrics to allocate assets dynamically[65][70] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct odds and win rate indicators for each asset 2. Combine the two metrics into a unified score 3. Allocate assets based on the combined score - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy balances risk and return effectively, achieving stable performance over time[65][70] --- Model Backtest Results 1. CDS Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 11.8% - Annualized Volatility: 13.9% - Maximum Drawdown: 19.1% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.851[15] 2. Duration Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.8% - Annualized Volatility: 2.1% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.3% - Calmar Ratio: 2.94[19] 3. Equity Index Return Prediction Model - CSI 300: Predicted Return 19.7% - CSI 500: Predicted Return -27.8%[22][26] 4. Industry Rotation Strategy - Annualized Excess Return: 12.2% (since 2011) - Tracking Error: 10.9% - Maximum Drawdown: 25.4% - IR: 1.12[61] 5. Odds + Win Rate Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.9% (since 2011) - Annualized Volatility: 2.3% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.8% - Sharpe Ratio: 3.03[72] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines odds, trend, and crowding metrics to evaluate quality stocks[46] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate odds (valuation) at 1.3 standard deviations 2. Assess trend at -0.1 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at -1.1 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: High composite score indicates strong potential for long-term allocation[46] 2. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates growth stocks based on trend, odds, and crowding metrics[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at 0.5 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -1.1 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at 0.2 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: Low composite score suggests limited allocation value[47] 3. Factor Name: Dividend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on dividend-paying stocks with moderate odds and low crowding[50] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at -1.7 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -0.2 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at -1.6 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: Low composite score indicates limited allocation potential[50] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates small-cap stocks based on trend, odds, and crowding metrics[53] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at -0.06 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -0.05 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at 0.3 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: High uncertainty and low composite score suggest caution[53] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Quality Factor - Odds: 1.3 SD - Trend: -0.1 SD - Crowding: -1.1 SD - Composite Score: 3[46] 2. Growth Factor - Odds: -1.1 SD - Trend: 0.5 SD - Crowding: 0.2 SD - Composite Score: 0[47] 3. Dividend Factor - Odds: -0.2 SD - Trend: -1.7 SD - Crowding: -1.6 SD - Composite Score: 0[50] 4. Small-Cap Factor - Odds: -0.05 SD - Trend: -0.06 SD - Crowding: 0.3 SD - Composite Score: 0[53]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 5 月市场观点：关注关税的实际影响幅度 1、关税冲击将显，关注实际影响幅度 关税加征的两个关切：一是沿总量层面，实际关税税率水平、对出口的冲击以及对 经济增速的拖累如何？二是沿盈利传导层面，本轮关税加征存在结构性的豁免以 及额外加征，且各行业产品的全球比价优势存在明显差异，那么哪些行业面临压 力更大？ 鉴于特朗普已单方面提及要调降对等关税幅度，且中美双方尚未真正开启磋商， 所以此前对等关税的几个版本都需要纳入考虑：①情形一：10%基准关税加征 +10%芬太尼关税；②情形二：10%基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+34%对等关 税；③情形三：10%基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+84%对等关税；情形④：10% 基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+125%对等关税。测算结果显示： ③关于经济增速：四类关税加征情形下对应的对 GDP 的拖累幅度预计将分别达到 1.2%、1.6%、1.7%和 1.7%左右。若考虑潜在的新增转口贸易、海外建厂等因素 还将对冲部分压力，实际对 GDP 的实际拖累幅度预计在 1%-1.4%左右。 ④ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the multi-category discount retail format, with "零食有鸣" leading the way in this transformation. The company has established over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in the number of stores opening in 2025 [1][3] - The discount retail format is seen as a response to insufficient overall demand and excess supply, similar to trends observed in the retail markets of the US and Japan. This format is expected to capture a significant market share [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Development - "零食有鸣" has pioneered the multi-category discount retail format, opening its first store in Chengdu in 2021 and expanding to over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024. The company opened 189 new stores during the 2024 National Day holiday, surpassing 1,500 stores by April 2025 [1][11] - The company focuses on community-based locations, targeting local residents and students, which positions it well against traditional small supermarkets [12] Section 2: Product Categories and Pricing - The product mix includes snacks, beverages, daily necessities, and seasonings, with snacks occupying approximately 50% of shelf space. The pricing strategy emphasizes value, with many products priced at 70-80% of nearby supermarkets and online platforms [2][16] - The high proportion of private label products in the daily necessities category is expected to enhance profitability and meet diverse community needs [16][19] Section 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The report indicates that the category adjustments are minimal, allowing for easier operational scalability. The company is expected to establish direct partnerships with suppliers as it continues to expand its store network [3][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency, which is crucial for the success of the discount retail model, particularly in the early stages of multi-category expansion [20]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一） 一、业绩增长：A 股盈利回升转正，净利率是主要驱动 1.1 业绩增长：A 股盈利 24Q4 进一步下探、25Q1 回升转正 ——全 A/全 A 非金融业绩增速 2024 年四季度进一步下探，2025 年一 季度回升转正。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 归母净利润同比分别为 3.58%/4.28%，环比分别变动 5.94/17.26pct；全 A/全 A 非金融 24Q4 归 母净利润同比分别为-2.36%/-12.99%，环比分别变动-2.30/-5.75pct。 ——上市板看，主板业绩保持韧性、创业板业绩弹性较强；宽基指数看， 大盘业绩增速小幅回落，中小盘盈利明显修复；行业风格看，科技 TMT、 可选消费、中游制造业绩占优，中游制造、科技 TMT、上游资源增速改善。 1.2 营收增长：A 股营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增 ——全 A/全 A 非金融营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 营业收入同比分别为-0 ...

风险提示：行业需求不及预期、原材料价格波动风险、行业价格战风险。 增持（维持） 汽车 特斯拉及新势力：小鹏零跑新车亮眼，车企加码智驾与机器人 特斯拉：行业竞争激烈，汽车销量承压影响业绩。2024 年至今，全球新能 源市场整体向好，国内受益政策补贴、新车型持续增加，自主新车数量多 且定价激进，国内新能源车增长势头较强，欧洲市场在碳排法规推动下有 改善的趋势，美国电动化进程持续推进，特斯拉近期仅推出 modely 焕新 版，且调价力度弱于自主品牌，销量承受压力，2024&2025q1，特斯拉交 付 179/34 万辆，同比-1.1%/-13%，其中国内 65.7/17.28 万辆，同比+9%/- 21.8%。受降价促销影响，2024&2025Q1asp 为 4.2/4 万美元，同降 7%/8%；收入 977/193 亿美元，同比+1%/-9%，毛利率 17.9%/16.3%， 净利率 8.1%/4.8%，单车盈利 0.46/0.29 万美元，同降 27%/29%。展望 2025 年，焕新版 model Y 已开启密集交付，后续有计划推出经济型小车 及 cybercab 等，有望带动销量提升。 新势力：小鹏、零跑新 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [4] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with Tesla's sales under pressure impacting its performance. However, the global new energy market is showing overall improvement, particularly in China due to policy subsidies and the introduction of new models [1][9][12] - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are launching multiple new models targeting the 100,000 to 300,000 yuan market, leading to significant sales growth and improved profitability [2][28] - The trend towards intelligent driving and robotics is accelerating, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng making significant advancements in autonomous driving technology and robot production [3][26] Summary by Sections Tesla - Tesla's sales are under pressure, with Q1 2024 deliveries expected to be 179,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while domestic deliveries are projected at 65,700 units, an increase of 9% [1][9] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q1 2024 is expected to be $42,000, down 7% year-on-year, with revenue projected at $97.7 billion, a slight increase of 1% [10][12] - The company is focusing on the launch of the refreshed Model Y and plans to introduce more affordable models, which may help boost sales in 2025 [10][12] New Entrants - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are seeing substantial sales growth, with 2024 sales projections of 50,100 for Li Auto, 29,400 for Leap Motor, and 19,000 for Xpeng, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 104%, and 34% respectively [2][30] - The profitability of these new entrants is improving due to economies of scale and cost reductions in the supply chain, with Xpeng reducing losses and Leap Motor achieving positive financial results [2][30] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - By April 2025, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to be implemented in millions of vehicles, with significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities [3][26] - Companies are increasingly investing in robotics, with Tesla planning to produce 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to integrating robotics with automotive technology [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the new vehicle cycle and emphasizes the potential of companies like Xpeng, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Tesla for investment opportunities [39]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 润泽科技（300442.SZ） 改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势未改 投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年收入为 63/79/96 亿元，归母净利润为 26.8/33.0/39.9 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 31/25/21 倍。公司是园区级数据中心龙 头，未来有望凭借其前瞻性的布局充分受益于 AI 迅速发展带来的智算中心需 求，但鉴于公司由于会计核算调整以及机房改造可能造成短期业绩承压，我们 下调公司的业绩预测，维持 买入"评级。 风险提示：上架率不及预期、市场竞争风险、AIGC 进展不达预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,351 | 4,365 | 6,307 | 7,906 | 9,580 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 60.3 | 0.3 | 44.5 | 25.4 | 21.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1 ...