Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a slow bull market, with the effects of anti-involution policies becoming evident in the August PPI data, leading to continued increases in major broad-based indices in September [1][8] - The report suggests a shift towards growth-oriented investment strategies while maintaining a balanced overall style in fund allocation, with recommendations to consider gold and US stock-related ETFs [1][8] - Structural investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in emerging technologies and financial sectors, with expectations for new highs in A/H share indices [1][8][13] Group 2 - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8%, reflecting a seasonal increase, while the service sector shows a slight decline, indicating a mixed economic outlook [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of the lithium battery sector, which is benefiting from favorable policies and a surge in overseas demand for energy storage, contributing to strong performance in related industries [8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in the AI sector, with significant collaborations and advancements, suggesting continued growth potential in technology-related investments [8][10] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to enter a stabilization phase in October, with a likelihood of oscillation and potential recovery in certain bond types, despite a long-term weakening trend [17][20] - The report highlights the central bank's active role in maintaining liquidity and supporting the bond market, particularly during the quarter-end period [18][20] - The report suggests that the demand for high-grade, liquid credit bonds remains strong, with a focus on flexible duration products [17][20] Group 4 - The report indicates that the number of new funds launched in September reached the highest level since 2022, with a total fundraising amount of 167.34 billion, reflecting a recovery in the public fund market [56][60] - The report notes that equity funds accounted for a significant portion of new fund launches, indicating a growing investor interest in equity investments amid a recovering A-share market [56][60] - The report highlights the performance of various fund styles, with growth-oriented funds outperforming balanced and value funds, particularly in the TMT and midstream manufacturing sectors [48][49]

股 票 研 究 Figure 03 机器人点评 | | | Figure 03 展示家庭应用场景，为规模化生产做准备 [Table_Industry] 机器人 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 刘麒硕(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | liuqishuo@gtht.com | S0880525080005 | 本报告导读： 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 Figure AI 推出新一代 Figure 03，依托于 Helix 系统，侧重家庭场景落地，并为规 模化生产做了设计准备，看好其后续场景落地与量产进度。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机器人《谷歌推出最新机器人大脑模型，1X 拟融 资 10 亿美元》2025.09.28 机器人《特斯拉计划召开人形机器人等产品量产 会议》2025.09.21 机器人《Optimus V3 量 ...

Group 1: Financial Engineering Research - The stock, bond, and gold markets showed positive, negative, and positive signals respectively as of the end of September 2025 [2] - The macro environment forecast for Q4 indicates inflation [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives' special committee issued a report detailing sanctions against China's semiconductor industry, suggesting measures like export controls and technology blockades to maintain U.S. dominance [4][20] - The report indicates that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) account for 80%-85% of the global market share, with China expected to spend $38 billion on semiconductor equipment in 2024 [5][21] - Despite challenges, there is optimism for domestic semiconductor equipment companies to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, with recommended stocks including North China Huachuang and Tuo Jing Technology [4][20] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The demand for air travel surged during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with domestic passenger volume increasing by over 3% year-on-year [8][29] - The aviation industry is expected to see profitability growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong public and commercial demand [9][30] - If public demand continues to recover, the Chinese aviation industry could enter a "super cycle" by 2026, with recommendations to invest in high-quality airline networks [32] Group 4: Biomedicine Industry - Heartai Medical is a leader in congenital heart disease intervention devices, with a 32.4% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025 [13][14] - The company is advancing biodegradable occluders, which are gaining popularity due to their clinical advantages over traditional metal devices [14] - The market for heart valve interventions in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 69.8% from 2021 to 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 80.50 CNY [5][12][18]. Core Insights - The company specializes in precision components for folding machines, with expectations for continuous improvement in average selling price (ASP) per unit. The company is steadily advancing its domestic and international production capacity, enhancing its global supply capabilities [2][12][21]. - The projected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 12.37 billion CNY, 16.10 billion CNY, and 21.39 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 1.07 billion CNY, 1.86 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY [11][16][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 814 million CNY in 2024, growing to 1.237 billion CNY in 2025, and 1.610 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.9% from 2024 to 2025 [11][16]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.66 CNY, 1.15 CNY, and 1.71 CNY, respectively, indicating significant growth rates of 43.3%, 73.9%, and 48.2% [11][12][18]. 2. Business Situation - The company focuses on MIM (Metal Injection Molding) and non-MIM components, with a strong presence in the supply chains of major smartphone brands, including Apple and Amazon. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for folding screen devices [21][22]. - The revenue from non-MIM precision components is expected to reach 460 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.9%, driven by new projects from major clients [12][21][24]. 3. Production Capacity and Global Supply Chain - The company is making steady progress in establishing new production capacities both domestically and internationally, with factories in Changsha, Hunan, and Vietnam entering phased production [12][24].

| | 国泰海通证券 | | --- | --- | | 1 | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | | | 目 录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 每日报告精选（2025-09-30 09:00——2025-10-09 15:00） 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《假期消费：表现如何》2025-10-08 | 3 | |  | 宏观周报：《假期期间：海外大事件与全球大类资产》2025-10-08 | 3 | |  宏观专题：《PMI | 边际回升：供给推动》2025-09-30 | 4 | |  | 海外策略研究：《"秋日胜春朝"——四季度港股市场展望》2025-10-07 | 5 | |  | 海外策略研究：《最近一周灵活外资或有明显回流》2025-10-07 | 6 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：纺织服装业《Nike FY26Q1 北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心》2025-10-09 | 7 | |  | 行业月报：医药《景气延续，继续推荐创新药械产业链》2025-10-09 | 7 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：半导体设备《自强，先进制 ...

- The high-frequency skewness factor showed strong performance with long-short returns of 0.9%, 4.93%, and 22.69% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The intraday downside volatility proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.77%, 5.18%, and 18.23% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open buying intention proportion factor had long-short returns of 1.11%, 3.65%, and 19.98% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open buying intention intensity factor had long-short returns of 1.62%, 3.28%, and 25.81% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open large order net buying proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.34%, 1.51%, and 20.7% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The post-open large order net buying intensity factor had long-short returns of 0.38%, 1.51%, and 12.86% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The intraday return factor had long-short returns of 0.98%, 1.26%, and 20.66% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The end-of-day trading proportion factor had long-short returns of 1.25%, 4.18%, and 17.74% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The average single outflow amount proportion factor had long-short returns of 0.29%, 0.26%, and -0.54% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The large order-driven price increase factor had long-short returns of 0.09%, 2.88%, and 8.88% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][9] - The GRU(10,2)+NN(10) deep learning factor had long-short returns of 1.33%, 8.73%, and 41.75% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.71%, 3.42%, and 8.08%[5][9] - The GRU(50,2)+NN(10) deep learning factor had long-short returns of 1%, 7.98%, and 42.75% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.63%, 2.99%, and 7.91%[5][9] - The multi-granularity model (5-day label) factor had long-short returns of 0.99%, 6.15%, and 53.09% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.5%, 2.56%, and 19.48%[5][9] - The multi-granularity model (10-day label) factor had long-short returns of 0.81%, 5.2%, and 49.1% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively, with long-only excess returns of 0.37%, 2.97%, and 20.1%[5][9] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of -0.99%, -4.8%, and -0.06% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 500 AI enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of -1%, -2.32%, and 2.66% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI enhanced wide constraint portfolio had excess returns of -1.48%, -1.06%, and 7.53% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11] - The weekly rebalanced CSI 1000 AI enhanced strict constraint portfolio had excess returns of -0.79%, -0.12%, and 13.11% for the past week, September, and 2025, respectively[5][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - Nike's FY2026Q1 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with North America and running categories leading the recovery trend, while Greater China requires patience [2] - The report suggests focusing on related investment opportunities as Nike's performance and product line restructuring are at a bottoming stage, with potential for further improvement [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Nike's FY2026Q1 revenue reached $11.72 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $11.02 billion, which anticipated a 4.91% decline. Net profit was $730 million, down 31% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $420 million. Gross margin was 42.2%, down 3.2 percentage points year-over-year, while expense ratio was 34.3%, down 0.5 percentage points [5] - Inventory and revenue growth alignment improved, with FY2026Q1 inventory and revenue growth at -2% and +1% year-over-year, respectively [5] Regional Performance - In FY2026Q1, revenue growth by region was as follows: North America +4%, EMEA +1%, Greater China -10%, and Asia Pacific +1%. North America continues to lead the recovery trend, with significant growth in running, training, and basketball categories [5] - Greater China has approximately 5,000 single-brand stores and requires time for adjustment, with key areas for improvement being offline traffic and seasonal sell-through rates [5] Product and Channel Insights - FY2026Q1 saw a 20% growth in the running category, with North America showing double-digit growth and Greater China experiencing high single-digit growth. Non-traditional sports categories like outdoor ACG, SKIMS, and tennis are also performing well [5] - The report indicates that FY2026Q2 revenue is expected to decline by a single digit year-over-year, primarily due to ongoing pressures in e-commerce and inventory clearance [5] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks with profit forecasts and valuations, all rated as "Overweight": - Huayi Group (300979.SZ) with a projected PE of 18 for 2025E - Jiuxing Holdings (1836.HK) with a projected PE of 10 for 2025E - Shenzhou International (2313.HK) with a projected PE of 13 for 2025E - Taobo (6110.HK) with a projected PE of 14 for 2025E [6]

- The counter-cyclical allocation model predicts macroeconomic environments using credit spreads and term spreads, dividing them into Growth, Inflation, and Slowdown stages. For Q3 2025, the model forecasted an Inflation environment, allocating assets as follows: CSI 300 (20%), CSI 2000 (0%), Nanhua Commodity Index (30%), and ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index (50%). The respective returns were 17.90%, 17.24%, 3.88%, and -1.28%[7][8] - The macro momentum monthly allocation signal for October 2025 indicates a positive signal for the stock market, driven by positive signals from economic growth and risk sentiment factors[9][10] - The composite industry trend factor, constructed from industry-level indicators, serves as a timing signal for market trends. When the factor exceeds a certain threshold, it signals potential market rallies, while a sharp drop near the peak triggers a sell signal. From January 2015 to September 2025, the cumulative return of the composite industry trend factor portfolio was 122.66%, with an excess return of 48.42%. As of September 2025, the factor value was -0.30, showing a decline but maintaining a positive signal[4][17][19] - The bond market timing signal for October 2025 shows a negative overall signal, influenced by factors such as PMI, inflation indicators (CRB Index, CPI), exchange rates (CFETS RMB Index, USD midpoint), interest rates (ChinaBond Treasury yields for 2, 5, and 10 years), and risk sentiment factors[13] - The gold market timing signal for October 2025 is positive, supported by fundamental and technical factors. Positive signals include actual interest rates, London gold moving averages (10-month and 20-month), global negative-yielding debt scale, and US M2. Negative signals include expected inflation and CFTC swap dealer positions[13][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. House of Representatives' Strategic Competition Commission has issued a report detailing sanctions aimed at curbing China's semiconductor industry, which poses a threat to U.S. national security and global technological leadership. The report suggests measures such as export controls and technology blockades to maintain U.S. dominance in the global semiconductor supply chain [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the report expresses optimism about the potential for leading semiconductor equipment companies to achieve breakthroughs in advanced process nodes, indicating a positive growth outlook for these companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing global pursuit of semiconductor industry globalization, despite increasing U.S. government restrictions on China's integrated circuit industry. It emphasizes the critical role of domestic semiconductor equipment companies in achieving technological breakthroughs [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) account for approximately 80%-85% of the global semiconductor equipment market. It projects that China's total spending on semiconductor equipment will reach $38 billion in 2024, with significant revenue contributions from these companies [4]. Policy Recommendations - The report outlines several policy recommendations from the Strategic Competition Commission, including: - Aligning export control policies with allies, particularly the Netherlands and Japan, to impose broader restrictions on equipment exports to China [4]. - Expanding the entity list to include more Chinese semiconductor companies, particularly those manufacturing logic chips at 45nm and below [4]. - Preventing the use of Chinese equipment in global fabs that utilize U.S., Dutch, or Japanese equipment [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - 北方华创 (North Huachuang) - 拓荆科技 (TuoJing Technology) - 芯源微 (Xinyuan Micro) - 中微公司 (Zhongwei Company) - 富创精密 (Fuchuang Precision) - 盛美上海 (Shengmei Shanghai) [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to recommend innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices along the industry chain [2][7] - The performance of the pharmaceutical sector in September 2025 was weaker than the broader market, with the SW Pharmaceutical Biotech index declining by 1.7% compared to a 0.6% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [16][22] - The report highlights that the medical service sub-sector performed relatively well, increasing by 1.8%, while medical devices and chemical preparations saw slight declines [22] Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendations**: The report includes a list of A-share stocks with an "Overweight" rating, including Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, East China Pharmaceutical, Changchun High-tech, Enhua Pharmaceutical, WuXi AppTec, Tigermed, Lepu Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Huatai Medical [7][9] - **Performance Analysis**: The report notes that the monthly portfolio of Guotai Junan Pharmaceuticals outperformed the pharmaceutical index in September 2025, with an average increase of 1.1% compared to a 0.7% increase in the overall pharmaceutical index [12][13] - **Market Comparison**: The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to all A-shares is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 77.5% as of the end of September 2025 [26][28]