风偏修复下科技板块领涨 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 上周全球指数明显反弹，股指波动率回落，全球科技板块领涨。资金面上，戴利等 联储官员支持 12 月降息，12 月联储降息预期回升。基本面上，AI 泡沫担忧暂缓， 港股美股科技盈利预期均上修，欧美经济高频景气预期有所回落。 投资要点： | | 021-23154147 | | --- | --- | | | wuxinkun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040061 | | | 陈菲(分析师) | | | 021-23187260 | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.02 [Table_Report] 相关报告 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/11/28） 2025.11.28 南向资金流入电商零售规模创 10 月以来新高 2025.11.28 一页纸精读行业比较数据：11 ...

程 20251128） 高频因子普遍反弹，多粒度因子多头表现明显改善。AI 增 强组合表现平稳，多数组合获得正收益。 本报告导读： 上周（特指 20251124-20251128，下同）高频因子普遍反弹，多粒度因子多头表现明 显改善。AI 增强组合表现平稳，多数组合获得正收益。 投资要点： [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 021-23219395 | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 余浩淼(分析师) | | | 021-23185650 | | | yuhaomiao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251128） 2025.11.30 低频选股因子周报（2025.11.21-2025.11.28） 2025.11.29 权益黄金尽墨，全球资产 BL 模型 2 本周微录正 收益 2025.11.28 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251117-251121） 2025.11.27 上周 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone, with a significant opportunity for investment in the upcoming months due to a convergence of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals [12][14][13] - The report identifies key sectors to focus on, including technology, financial services, and consumer goods, suggesting a strategic shift towards more aggressive investment positions [14][12] - The anticipated growth in the Chinese capital market is supported by a reduction in previous valuation discounts, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in the non-financial sector by 2026 [13][12] Group 2 - In the technology sector, companies like Tencent and Alibaba are highlighted for their robust revenue and profit growth, driven by advancements in AI and cloud services [20][24] - The electronics industry is seeing accelerated demand for domestic AI solutions, with companies like Haiguang Information benefiting from this trend [32][8] - The communication sector is expected to thrive due to increased capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, with significant growth anticipated in light communication technologies [39][40] Group 3 - The machinery sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Changying Precision and Hengli Hydraulic showing improved profitability and market positioning [6][8] - The automotive industry, particularly Weichai Power, is noted for steady revenue and performance improvements, indicating a positive outlook [6][8] - The healthcare sector, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Ying'en Bio [6][8] Group 4 - The consumer sector is poised for recovery after a three-year adjustment period, with low valuations and potential policy support creating structural opportunities [14][12] - Companies in the retail and food & beverage sectors, such as Shoulu Hotel and Yanjing Beer, are highlighted for their improving performance metrics [6][8] - The financial sector, particularly non-bank financial institutions like Huatai Securities and China Ping An, is expected to benefit from market reforms and improved profitability [6][8]

红利风格择时周报（1124-1128） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 本周（20251124 至 20251128）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.69，相对于上周 （20251117 至 20251121）的-0.66 基本持平，仍保持小于 0，未发出正向信号。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251128） 2025.11.30 低频选股因子周报（2025.11.21-2025.11.28） 2025.11.29 权益黄金尽墨，全球资产 BL 模型 2 本周微录正 收益 2025.11.28 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251117-251121） 2025.11.27 上周价量因子表现较 ...

经营现金流显著改善，推进资产盘活工作 中国交建(601800) 中国交建 2025 三季报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): 13.64 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | | 本报告导读： Q3 归母净利润下降 16.3%，扣非归母增长 24.1%，经营净现金流显著改善，新签合 同额稳健增长。预分红比例为 2025H1 利润的 20%，全面推进做实资产专项工作。 投资要点： [维持增持。 Table_Summary] 受基建行业整体需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in apparent steel consumption and inventory levels, with a total apparent consumption of 8.88 million tons, down 0.69% week-on-week but up 1.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The report anticipates that the steel demand will stabilize, with a continued expectation of supply contraction. The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [5][3]. Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have increased week-on-week, with Shanghai rebar prices rising by 30 CNY/ton to 3260 CNY/ton, a 0.93% increase. Total steel inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 14.01 million tons [5][8]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills decreased to 81.09%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous week [5][27]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 91 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil had a gross profit of -47 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.4 CNY/ton [5][36]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices increased, with the price for PB powder rising by 2 CNY/ton to 793 CNY/ton, a 0.25% increase. The total inventory of iron ore at ports rose by 1% to 15.206 million tons [5][45][51]. - The total shipment volume of the four major iron ore producers decreased by 225,000 tons to 21.2 million tons [5][60]. Special Steel and New Materials - The report notes an increase in stainless steel prices and a recovery in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices [5][4]. Macroeconomic Context - The crude steel production from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year decline, with the construction and manufacturing sectors continuing to weaken [5][5.1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 17.85 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - Yingfeng Group plans to increase its stake in Sophia by 10.77% at a premium of 28.85%, reflecting long-term confidence in the company's development [2][13]. - The report indicates that the company may face short-term pressure from the real estate sector, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [13]. - The acquisition by Yingfeng is seen as a recognition of the long-term investment value in the industry and the leading company, suggesting potential for future collaboration [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decrease from 11,666 million CNY in 2023 to 9,982 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 11,080 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2025 to 2027 [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 1,261 million CNY in 2023 to 1,011 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 1,271 million CNY by 2027 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.31 CNY in 2023, dropping to 1.05 CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 1.32 CNY by 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 13.97 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 12.51 CNY to 19.16 CNY [7]. - The company's total market capitalization is 13,454 million CNY, with a total share count of 963 million shares [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.67 for 2023, decreasing to 9.81 for 2024, and then increasing to 13.30 for 2025 [4][14]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio at the current price is 1.9, indicating a valuation that is slightly above book value [8][14].

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A/H shares and industrial metals, a market weight in government bonds, and an underweight in the US dollar [1][15][16] - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a strong outlook for A/H shares due to the release of micro trading risks and the upcoming policy window as the economy enters the 14th Five-Year Plan [15][16] - The imbalance between financing demand and credit supply leads to a tactical market weight in government bonds, with expectations of improved liquidity supporting bond market sentiment [15][16][17] Group 2 - Demand expectations for industrial commodities are revised upwards, maintaining a tactical overweight view, particularly for copper, driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles [17][18] - The US dollar is under pressure due to adjustments in monetary policy and economic convergence, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar [17][18] - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant growth potential, with a favorable risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [15][16][18]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：外需修复带动供给边际改善，对制造业 PMI 形成支撑。但是原材料、产成品价 格差走阔，反映内需仍需提振。接下来，基建投资修复值得关注。 2、【机械研究】机器人：优必选等企业加码产业布局、斩获大额订单，产业链协同推进，人形机 器人加速产业化。 3、【军工研究】军工：国家航天局发布关于印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动 计划（2025—2027 年）》的通知，指出商业航天是推动航天产业发展、建设航天强国的重要力量。 我们认为，近期我国商业航天产业及政策端利好频发，我国商业航天事业有望驶入快车道。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 侯欢(分析师) 021-23185643 houhuan@gtht.com S0880525040074 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 ...