Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales in Q3 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand experienced over 20% growth [2][3] - The management maintains the annual guidance, indicating stable growth prospects for the main brand and strong performance for the professional sports brand [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth, with Saucony and another brand, Maile, targeting specific consumer segments for faster growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The main brand's retail sales in Q3 grew low single digits year-on-year, with better performance in July and August compared to September [4] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with children's products showing stronger growth than adult products, particularly in functional categories like running and outdoor [4] Retail Discounts and Inventory - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with inventory turnover ratio stable at 4.0-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [5] Brand Growth - Saucony's sales grew over 20%, with strategic adjustments made to reduce low-priced products in e-commerce and tighten discounts [6] - The management expects Saucony's revenue growth to exceed 30% in 2025, with profits anticipated to grow over 10% [6] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [3][10] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [3][9]

Core Insights - The recent week (2025.10.13-2025.10.17) saw mixed performance in overseas markets, with South Korea leading gains and Hong Kong experiencing significant declines, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index which fell by 7.98%. The valuation divergence is evident, with the Korean Composite Index PE expanding by 2.7x while the Hang Seng Tech Index PE contracted by 1.7x [2][7] - In the A-share market, major broad indices collectively declined, with the CSI 500 down by 5.17%, CSI 1000 by 4.62%, and the National CSI 2000 by 4.69%. Only large-cap value stocks saw a slight increase of 2.08%, while growth styles experienced significant pullbacks. Overall, valuations contracted, with the CSI 2000 PE shrinking the most by 7.4x [2][28] - The essential consumer sector shows superior valuation attractiveness. The valuation metrics for food and beverage, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, indicate significant room for valuation recovery, with their 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year average valuation percentiles being notably low [2][50] Global Valuation Tracking - The global equity markets exhibited mixed results, with notable valuation changes. The U.S. markets saw slight PE expansions, while European markets showed divergence with Germany and the UK declining, and France increasing. The Indian SENSEX30 is highlighted as having lower valuation percentiles compared to the French CAC40, indicating a valuation advantage [7][8] A-share Broad Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, A-share broad indices' PE, PB, and PS metrics are positioned between the 88%-96% percentile range over the past year, while PCF percentiles remain low at 12%-30%. In the short to medium term, large-cap value stocks are relatively superior, while small-cap growth stocks, despite recent pullbacks, still exhibit low valuation attractiveness [29][30] Industry Valuation Tracking - The majority of primary industries experienced declines, with only coal (+4.17%), banking (+4.89%), food and beverage (+0.86%), and transportation (+0.37%) showing gains. The TMT sector faced the most significant pullbacks, with electronic and computer sectors seeing PE contractions of 5.05x and 5.33x respectively [50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

- The report introduces the "SSE STAR Market Innovation Growth Strategy Select Index," which focuses on selecting 80 listed companies with strong technological innovation and growth capabilities from various industries on the STAR Market[13][14] - The index incorporates traditional factors such as market capitalization and fundamentals, as well as innovative factors like R&D capability and profitability, and integrates the SPDB's Sci-Tech Evaluation System, which scores companies based on "technological innovation, team innovation, and equity innovation"[14] - The index aims to highlight companies with both "innovation strength" and "growth quality," reflecting the overall performance of listed companies on the STAR Market that possess these characteristics[13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened. It is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [1][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the trading was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. Considering the weak economy and the possible continuous loosening of monetary policy, it is expected that the 30-10 spread will compress periodically as the bond market rebounds [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low position. It is expected that the bond market will continue to rebound, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 23.7 trillion. As of September 30, 2025, the total ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years were 23.7802 trillion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds. In terms of remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (October 12 - October 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly. A total of 577 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase in the total issuance compared with the week before last. In terms of variety, 400 billion yuan of Treasury bonds and 177 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued. In terms of term, 13 billion yuan with a term of 15 years, 504 billion yuan with a term of 20 years, and 61 billion yuan with a term of 30 years were issued [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 118.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The trading volume of ultra-long bonds was 1.0792 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra-long bonds increased by 833.9 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 0.3% [29][30]. - **Yield**: Last week, Sino-US trade frictions escalated, but the export data in September was still strong. The inflation in September rebounded year-on-year, the total financial data continued to be under pressure, and coupled with the sharp decline of A-shares, the bond market oscillated and recovered, and ultra-long bonds rebounded from the bottom. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [37]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the week before last, at the 19% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and 0BP compared with the week before last, at the 10% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume of 30-year Treasury bond futures was 721,900 lots (197,094 lots), and the open interest was 185,000 lots (11,589 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the week before last [56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20][21] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 54.65% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 9.49 billion, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 28.56% to 1.96 billion [1][8] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 4.03 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.38 [1][8] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the rapid development of domestic artificial intelligence and the increasing demand for high-end chips in the domestic market [1][8] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 60.0%, down 9.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the increasing revenue share from lower-margin DCU products [2][18] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.78%, down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][18] Financial Performance - The company’s total prepayments and inventory as of Q3 2025 were 2.62 billion and 6.50 billion, respectively, indicating continuous growth and improved supply-side conditions [3][20] - Contract liabilities stood at 2.80 billion, maintaining a historical high, which reflects strong product demand [3][20] - The company forecasts revenues of 15.53 billion, 21.21 billion, and 25.60 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.92 billion, 5.49 billion, and 6.39 billion for the same years [3][20][23] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 135, 97, and 83 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][20] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 16.3%, 18.7%, and 17.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 54.65% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 9.49 billion, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 28.56% to 1.96 billion [1][8] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 4.03 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.38 [1][8] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the rapid development of artificial intelligence in China and the increasing demand for high-end chips, particularly in the domestic market [1][8] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts, with projected revenues of 15.5 billion, 21.2 billion, and 25.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 3.92 billion, 5.49 billion, and 6.39 billion for the same years [3][20] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 60.0%, down 9.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][18] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.78%, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][18] - The company’s R&D expenses increased due to the expansion of its workforce in the AI chip sector, indicating a commitment to maintaining competitive advantages [2][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of Q3 2025, the company's prepayments and inventory reached 2.62 billion and 6.50 billion respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [3][20] - The contract liabilities stood at 2.80 billion, maintaining a historical high, which reflects strong product demand and reinforces confidence in annual performance [3][20]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The September fiscal data shows a marginal recovery in general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, up from 2% in the previous period, driven mainly by VAT and a significant increase in stamp duty revenue [9][10] - Government fund budget revenue turned positive in September, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, while expenditure growth slowed to 0.4%, indicating a potential for fiscal policy to support economic recovery [10][11] - The central government announced a new policy of 500 billion yuan in financial tools and 500 billion yuan in local debt limits to stimulate the economy, which is expected to have a positive impact in the fourth quarter [11] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The modern investment banking sector is evolving, with a focus on cross-border asset management, particularly in Hong Kong, which has a substantial asset management scale of 35.14 trillion HKD [18][19] - The telecommunications industry is experiencing rapid advancements in satellite internet deployment, with 116 satellites launched to date, enhancing communication capabilities [22][23] - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a significant price increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has risen over 50% since mid-July, driven by tight supply and increasing demand [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan is expected to positively impact social financing and bank credit demand in the coming years [4][9]. - The new financial tool will be used entirely to supplement project capital, which can leverage additional loans and enhance bank credit demand [12]. Summary by Sections New Policy Financial Tool - The new policy financial tool, announced on September 29, has a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital [4][5]. - Historical precedents for similar tools include the special construction fund in 2015 and the policy development financial tool in 2022 [5]. Impact on Social Financing and Bank Credit - The 500 billion yuan will be injected into projects through entrusted loans, directly increasing social financing [12]. - The capital can leverage additional loans, potentially leading to an investment of 4-5 trillion yuan and corresponding credit demand of approximately 3-4 trillion yuan [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests selecting high-quality stocks that are likely to show early signs of recovery, with a focus on Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank, while also monitoring Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [9]. - For conservative investors seeking absolute returns, stocks with stable performance and high dividends, such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank, are recommended [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -4.18%. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest decline; among sector ETFs, the large - financial ETF had the smallest decline; among hot - topic ETFs, the bank ETF had the highest return. Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 22.107 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the largest net subscription; among sector ETFs, the large - financial ETF had the largest net subscription; among theme ETFs, the bank ETF had the largest net subscription [1][2][58]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 7 ETFs will be issued, including Southern Hang Seng Tech ETF, China Merchants GEM Artificial Intelligence ETF, etc [52][55][58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was -4.18%. The median returns of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, A500, CSI 1000, CSI 500, GEM - related, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs were -0.21%, -2.15%, -3.25%, -4.60%, -5.12%, -5.70%, and -6.13% respectively. The median returns of commodity, bond, money, and cross - border ETFs were 11.08%, 0.13%, 0.02%, and -3.63% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of large - financial, consumer, cyclical, and technology sector ETFs were -2.31%, -3.28%, -3.78%, and -6.59% respectively. By hot - topic, the median returns of bank, liquor, and dividend ETFs were 5.07%, 2.04%, and 0.74% respectively, showing relatively strong performance; the median returns of robot, chemical, and AI ETFs were -9.09%, -7.34%, and -7.10% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [17]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3567 billion yuan, 885 billion yuan, and 568.7 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money ETFs were relatively small, at 224 billion yuan and 154 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively large scales [20]. - By sector, the scale of the technology sector ETF was 399.6 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF at 220.1 billion yuan. The large - financial and consumer ETFs had relatively small scales. By hot - topic, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 22.107 billion yuan, with a total scale decrease of 102.67 billion yuan; money ETFs had a net subscription of 4.133 billion yuan, with a total scale increase of 4.149 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the largest net subscription of 952 million yuan, and its scale decreased by 12.585 billion yuan; the A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 8.57 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 15.153 billion yuan [27][28]. - By sector, the large - financial ETF had the largest net subscription of 15.168 billion yuan, with a scale increase of 12.605 billion yuan; the consumer ETF had the smallest net subscription of 4.094 billion yuan, with a scale decrease of 242 million yuan. By hot - topic, the bank ETF had the largest net subscription of 8.241 billion yuan, with a scale increase of 9.826 billion yuan; the dividend ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.427 billion yuan, with a scale decrease of 613 million yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, GEM - related, and A500 ETFs were at the 86.89%, 84.09%, 98.19%, 94.15%, 59.69%, and 94.75% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 67.44%, 67.35%, 97.86%, 59.03%, 51.20%, and 94.14% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Science and Technology Innovation Board - related ETFs are currently at the 98.52% and 70.32% quantile levels respectively [33]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 70.82%, 44.60%, 26.63%, and 96.62% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 77.49%, 57.21%, 35.53%, and 84.83% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of large - financial ETFs increased significantly, while those of consumer ETFs decreased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratio quantiles of chip, robot, and military - industry ETFs were relatively high. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of bank ETFs increased significantly, while those of media ETFs decreased significantly. Overall, among broad - based ETFs, GEM - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; among sectors, consumer and large - financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; among sub - themes, liquor ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [39][40]. ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has generally maintained an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs decreased from 46.957 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.343 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.357 billion shares in the previous week to 2.475 billion shares [43]. - From last Monday to Thursday, among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases, the securities ETF and the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases. Among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volume, the CSI 1000 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volume [44][48]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, with relatively high management scales in multiple sub - fields such as scale - index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy - index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with relatively high management scales in scale - index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with relatively high management scales in scale - index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy - index ETFs [52]. - This week, 7 ETFs will be issued, including Southern Hang Seng Tech ETF, China Merchants GEM Artificial Intelligence ETF, Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Ping An CSI General Aviation Theme ETF, Harvest CSI Sub - Chemical Industry Theme ETF, Tianhong SZSE GEM Technology ETF, and Huatai - PineBridge CSI GEM ETF [55].