证券研究报告 | 2025年10月08日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 10 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、基础化工、电力设备、银行和电子等行业 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20250901-20250930），券商金股行业变动、公募重仓股动量和 SUE 因子表现较好，公募基金持仓行业变动、成交量调节动量和超大单资金 净流入金额占比因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20250930），分析师认可度、SUE 和公募重仓股动 量因子表现较好，而公募基金持仓行业变动、成交量调节动量和超大单资金 净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 组合绩效：根据 CANSLIM 复合因子得分从高到低进行排序，选择得分最高 的 5 个行业等权构建组合。2013 年以来组合年化收益 22.94%，相对行业等 权基准年化超额收益 13.80%，相对最大回撤 23.75%，信息比为 1.29，收 益回撤比 0.58，月度胜率 73%，表现优异。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20250901- ...

Group 1 - The communication sector underperformed the market in September, with the communication index down 0.15% compared to a 3.20% increase in the CSI 300 index, ranking 14th among 31 primary industries [2][14] - The PE valuation for the communication sector was 23.8 times in September, slightly below the historical median of 33.6 times over the past decade [2][16] - Key performers in the communication sector included optical devices, IDC, and optical fiber cables, with notable stock increases from companies like Tengjing Technology (+66%), Chunzong Technology (+92%), and Yuanjie Technology (+44%) [2][22] Group 2 - The global AI sector remains robust, with North American CSPs planning to invest over $370 billion in capital expenditures for FY2025, a 40% increase year-on-year [3][27] - Oracle reported a significant increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO), reaching $455 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [3][30] - The global Ethernet switch market is projected to reach $14.5 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 42.1% year-on-year growth, driven by data center demand [3][33] Group 3 - Domestic CSPs in China are expected to invest over 450 billion yuan in AI computing power by 2025, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [4][50] - The industrialization of domestic super-node data centers is accelerating, with Alibaba launching its new generation of AI servers and Huawei showcasing significant advancements in computing clusters [4][52][58] - The demand for optical modules remains high, with ongoing advancements in CPO and OCS technologies, as major chip manufacturers increase their orders to meet AI server requirements [4][70] Group 4 - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of AI computing infrastructure, suggesting continued focus on optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][21] - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for long-term investment due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [5][21] - A recommended investment portfolio includes China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE, and Guanghetong for September 2025 [5][21]

Group 1 - The communication sector underperformed the market in September, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 3.20% while the communication index fell by 0.15%, ranking 14th among 31 primary industries [2][14] - The PE valuation of major companies in the communication sector was 23.8 times in September, slightly below the historical median of 33.6 times over the past decade [2][16] - The top-performing segments in September included optical devices, optical modules, IDC, and optical fiber cables, with notable stock performances from companies like Tengjing Technology (+66%) and Chunzong Technology (+92%) [2][22] Group 2 - Global AI growth remains strong, with North American CSPs planning to invest over $370 billion in capital expenditures for FY2025, a 40% increase year-on-year [3][27] - Oracle reported a significant increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO), reaching $455 billion, indicating robust demand for its cloud services [3][30] - The global Ethernet switch market is projected to reach $14.5 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 42.1% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand from data centers [3][33] Group 3 - Domestic CSPs in China are expected to invest over 450 billion yuan in AI computing power by 2025, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [4][50] - The industrialization of domestic super-node data centers is accelerating, with Alibaba launching its new generation of AI servers and Huawei unveiling significant advancements in computing clusters [4][52][58] - The demand for optical modules remains high, with ongoing collaborations between major chip manufacturers and CSPs to meet the increasing needs for high-end chips [4][70] Group 4 - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of monitoring the development of AI computing infrastructure, particularly in sectors like optical devices and communication equipment [5][21] - The three major telecom operators in China are highlighted as important assets for long-term investment due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [5][21] - A recommended investment portfolio includes China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE, and Guanghetong for the upcoming period [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [5][89]. Core Views - The introduction of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance profitability and strengthen industry management, promoting a competitive environment [1][3]. - Cement prices have seen a significant increase of 1.5% recently, with expectations for further price hikes as companies strive to meet annual growth targets [2][22]. - The glass market is experiencing a slight price increase, supported by downstream replenishment, although demand acceptance at higher prices remains limited [2][37]. - The fiberglass market shows stable pricing for non-alkali yarn, while electronic yarn remains in high demand, indicating a robust market for high-end products [2][54]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have risen significantly, with a 1.5% increase noted. Companies are expected to continue pushing for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches [2][22]. - The report anticipates that cement companies will maintain upward price momentum to achieve annual growth targets [2][22]. Glass - Float glass prices have shown a slight increase, supported by replenishment from downstream sectors, although the acceptance of high prices is limited [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a slight decline in demand, with inventory levels increasing, but manufacturers are maintaining stable pricing strategies [2][45]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali yarn remains stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex yarn at 3250-3700 CNY/ton, while electronic yarn prices are stable due to high demand in the high-end market [2][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cement and glass sectors due to stricter supply controls and improving profitability. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Qibin Group [3][5]. - For fiberglass, companies like China National Materials and China Jushi are highlighted as beneficiaries of structural demand growth [3][5]. - In the construction sector, a recovery in infrastructure investment is anticipated, with recommendations for companies such as China Railway Construction and China State Construction [3][5].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is currently at a bottoming phase, with strong players continuing to thrive [4] - The market has underperformed due to weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-share food and beverage sector down 4.7% year-to-date, while H-share food and beverage sector increased by 29.5% [4] - There is a notable divergence among product categories, with alcoholic beverages facing pressure while mass-market products show signs of improvement, particularly in leading brands [4] Market Indicators - The trading volume, open interest, and valuation of the food and beverage sector are at historically low levels, with the sector's trading volume in A-shares dropping below 2% [9][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage has been declining since 2021, with categories like liquor and beer at historically low percentiles [12][16] Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the need for a top-down approach to assess the investment value of leading companies like Kweichow Moutai, which holds a 31% weight in the food and beverage sector [27] - A bottom-up approach is also suggested to identify rapidly growing segments or companies in recovery [27] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on policy-sensitive sectors such as liquor and the restaurant supply chain, highlighting companies like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haidilao [4] - Strong brands in the mass-market segment are also recommended, including Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yili Group [4] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in liquor consumption as the impact of recent policies diminishes, with positive signals expected from the supply side [4] - The fourth quarter is projected to see improvements in key indicators for the liquor sector, including the price of Moutai [4] Performance Forecast - For Q3 2025, Kweichow Moutai is expected to generate revenue of 1,863.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, while Luzhou Laojiao is projected to see a 10% decline in revenue [49][50] - The report provides detailed forecasts for various companies, indicating expected revenue and profit changes for the upcoming quarters [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for lawn and pool robots is surging due to technological upgrades, with domestic companies competing vigorously [5] - The global lawn mower market is projected to reach $10 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2013 to 2023 [3] - The penetration rate of robotic lawn mowers is expected to increase significantly, driven by advancements in technology [3][29] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Lawn Demand and Market Size - The lawn care culture in Europe and the U.S. has led to a substantial market for lawn mowers, with 180 million private gardens [3][12] - The global lawn mower market is expected to reach approximately $10.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.1% from 2013 to 2023 [13][15] 2. Rapid Iteration of Boundaryless Smart Lawn Mowers - The introduction of RTK satellite differential positioning technology has significantly improved the performance of robotic lawn mowers, leading to a sales explosion [3][30] - By the first half of 2025, global sales of robotic lawn mowers are expected to grow by 327% year-on-year, reaching 2.34 million units [29] 3. Competitive Landscape of the Robotic Lawn Mower Industry - Traditional leaders like Husqvarna and Worx still hold significant market share, but domestic companies such as Ninebot, Ecovacs, and Mamotion are rapidly gaining ground [40][42] - Domestic companies are leveraging technological advantages and innovative product iterations to capture market share in overseas markets [42] 4. Pool Robot Market Dynamics - The global pool robot market is projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2019 to 2024 [6] - The penetration rate of pool robots is expected to rise from 18% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, with further growth anticipated by 2029 [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Stone Technology, Guangfeng Technology, and Ecovacs, which are well-positioned to benefit from the technological advancements in the industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for lawn and pool robots is surging due to technological upgrades, with domestic companies competing vigorously [5] - The global lawn mower market is projected to reach $10 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2013 to 2023 [3] - The penetration rate of robotic lawn mowers is expected to increase significantly, driven by advancements in technology [3][29] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Lawn Demand and Market Size - The lawn culture in Europe and the U.S. is robust, with approximately 180 million private gardens, creating a high demand for lawn maintenance tools [3][12] - The global lawn mower market is expected to reach $10.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.1% from 2013 to 2023 [13][15] 2. Rapid Iteration of Boundaryless Smart Lawn Mowers - Robotic lawn mowers have seen a sales explosion, with a 327% year-on-year increase in sales in the first half of 2025, reaching 2.34 million units [3][29] - The share of boundaryless robotic lawn mowers is projected to rise from 35% in 2024 to 65% in 2025 [29] 3. Competitive Landscape of the Lawn Mower Industry - Traditional lawn mower leaders like Husqvarna and Worx still hold significant market share, but domestic companies like Ninebot, Ecovacs, and Mamotion are rapidly gaining ground through technological innovation [3][42] - Domestic companies are expected to lead the industry due to their advantages in navigation, algorithms, and supply chains [3][38] 4. Pool Robot Market Growth - The global number of pools is projected to reach 32.9 million by 2024, with related spending expected to hit $12.9 billion [6] - The retail scale of the pool robot industry is anticipated to reach $2.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2019 to 2024 [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Stone Technology, Guangfeng Technology, and Ecovacs, which are well-positioned to benefit from the technological upgrades in the lawn and pool robot markets [5]

Long-term Logic - The long-term price trend of gold is closely linked to the global macroeconomic landscape, monetary system evolution, and supply-demand changes[4] - The trend of de-dollarization is undermining the dollar's credit foundation, leading to increased gold purchases by central banks as a strategic move[4] - The accumulation of U.S. debt risks is heightening concerns over monetary credit, reinforcing gold's safe-haven attributes[5] Short-term Triggers - In September, gold prices surged by 11.6%, driven by unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which initiated a rate reduction of 25 basis points[3][9] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eurasia, have escalated, increasing market risk aversion and driving demand for gold as a safe asset[11] - The scale of gold ETFs expanded significantly, reaching 32.57 million ounces in September, marking the second-highest monthly increase since July 2022[13] Future Outlook - The support system for gold remains robust, with long-term trends in the global monetary credit system and ongoing central bank purchases expected to sustain gold's bullish trend over the next 2-3 years[17] - Short-term factors, including continued monetary easing and persistent geopolitical risks, are likely to keep gold prices elevated and volatile[17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The successful production of green methanol at the 500,000-ton green hydrogen project by Goldwind Technology marks a significant step in the company's transition from wind power solutions to green energy solutions, establishing a solid foundation for future growth [3][8]. - The company is expected to capitalize on the long-term growth opportunities in the global wind power market while leveraging green methanol to create a second growth curve, thus expanding its presence in the global green energy market [3][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.698 billion, 3.673 billion, and 4.496 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of +45%, +36%, and +22% [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.64, 0.87, and 1.06 yuan for the same years, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.4, 17.2, and 14.1 times [3][9]. Project Highlights - The green methanol project is recognized as one of the first batch of national pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology, which will receive priority support in terms of manufacturing loans and policy incentives [4]. - The project utilizes corn straw as the gasification raw material, producing 70,000 Nm3/h of synthesis gas, making it the largest biomass gasifier in the world in terms of single furnace scale [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The successful production of green methanol at the 500,000-ton green hydrogen project in Inner Mongolia marks a significant milestone for the company, establishing a solid foundation for its strategic transition from wind power solutions to green energy solutions [3][8]. - The company is expected to capitalize on the long-term growth opportunities in the global wind power market while leveraging green methanol to create a second growth curve, thereby expanding its presence in the global green energy market [3][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.698 billion, 3.673 billion, and 4.496 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of +45%, +36%, and +22% [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.64, 0.87, and 1.06 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.4, 17.2, and 14.1 times [3][9]. Project Highlights - The green methanol project utilizes corn straw as the gasification feedstock, producing 70,000 Nm³/h of synthesis gas (CO+H2), making it the largest biomass gasifier in the world in terms of single furnace scale [4]. - The project has been recognized as one of the first batch of national pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology, which will receive priority support in terms of manufacturing loans and policy incentives [4].