Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June[6] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls over the past three months rose to 150,000, indicating a steady labor market[6] - The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June from 48.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8, slightly above the market expectation of 50.6[8] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - As of July 3, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US was 2.37%, up 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation rose to 2.33%, an increase of 4 basis points[13] - Many Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate cut in July may be premature, with expectations leaning towards a potential cut later in the year[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will determine future rate cuts based on incoming data, with no commitment to a specific path[24] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone HICP year-on-year growth rate slightly increased from 1.9% in May to 2.0% in June, aligning with market expectations[18] - The core HICP remained stable at 2.3% year-on-year, while the Eurozone PPI year-on-year growth rate fell from 0.7% in April to 0.3% in May[18] - The unemployment rate in the EU27 remained low at 5.9% in May, unchanged from April[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the thermal power sector, indicating a potential improvement in performance due to market-oriented electricity pricing and a long-term favorable profitability trend [2][5]. Core Insights - In April-May 2025, the power and heating industry achieved a pre-tax profit of RMB 114.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [5]. - The report anticipates that the second half of 2025 may end the trend of declines seen in the power sector over the past two years, with thermal power expected to benefit from a narrowing electricity price decline and a larger drop in coal prices [2][5]. - The performance of hydropower companies may diverge slightly due to water inflow shortages, while new energy installations are expected to increase significantly [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The average electricity price in Guangdong for Q2 2025 was RMB 0.374/kWh, down RMB 0.046/kWh year-on-year, while the average coal price was RMB 633/ton, down RMB 214/ton year-on-year [2][5]. - National electricity generation for April and May was 449.1 billion kWh and 461.5 billion kWh, respectively, with thermal power growth returning to positive in May [2][5]. Hydropower - The Three Gorges outflow and inflow were 1.2 and 1.0 million cubic meters per second, down 12.6% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. - National hydropower generation for April and May was 78.6 billion kWh and 99.1 billion kWh, down 6.5% and 14.3% year-on-year [2][5]. New Energy - New installations for wind and solar power reached 32.12 million kW and 138.13 million kW, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 277.2% and 1072.0% [2][5]. - Wind power utilization hours were 374 hours, down 6 hours year-on-year, while solar power utilization hours were 234 hours, down 37 hours year-on-year [2][5]. Nuclear Power - In April 2025, the State Council approved 10 new nuclear units, maintaining a normalized approval process [2][5]. - Nuclear power generation for Q2 2025 was 50.4 billion kWh, up 10.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a low maintenance base in the previous year [2][5].

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 11 Jul 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 推理力跃升 10 倍，理论性能对标 GPT-5 与 Claude 4 Opus Reasoning power surges 10x, with theoretical performance on par with GPT-5 and Claude 4 Opus 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 2025 年 7 月 9 日，xAI 正式发布其最新旗舰大模型 Grok 4，并于北京时间 7 月 10 日上午 11 点举行全球直播发布 会。该模型在 xAI 自研的 Colossus 超级计算机上训练，跳过 3.5 版本，直接命名为 Grok 4。相较前代，Grok 4 在推 理性能、多模态能力和上下文处理能力上均实现跃升。Grok 4 现已开放 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - CoreWeave has become the first cloud provider to commercially deploy the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 platform, featuring a fully integrated system with significant performance improvements, achieving 1.1 ExaFLOPS for inference and 0.36 ExaFLOPS for training, representing a 50% performance uplift over the previous generation [2][12] - The acquisition of Core Scientific allows CoreWeave to control over 1.3 GW of power resources, expected to save approximately $500 million annually in operational costs and avoid $10 billion in future rental expenses, marking a strategic shift towards a vertically integrated infrastructure platform [5][14] - CoreWeave's partnerships with major clients like OpenAI and Google position it to become a leading vendor in the AI cloud infrastructure market, contingent on its ability to deliver compute commitments consistently [5][15] Summary by Sections Event Summary - In July 2025, CoreWeave announced its commercial deployment of the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 platform, utilizing a fully integrated rack system with advanced components, achieving significant performance and efficiency improvements [2][12] Technical Architecture - The GB300 NVL72 architecture includes 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs, Grace CPUs, and BlueField-3 DPUs, enabling high-speed communication and efficient power management through liquid cooling [3][17] Strategic Moves - The acquisition of Core Scientific for $9 billion enhances CoreWeave's control over data center resources, reducing reliance on third-party providers and lowering deployment costs, establishing a competitive advantage in the AI cloud sector [5][14] - The report highlights the increasing divergence in the Neocloud landscape, with CoreWeave's rapid deployment capabilities and integration of hardware and software setting it apart from traditional cloud service providers [6][17]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in nuclear power, semiconductor manufacturing, and energy infrastructure, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [5][20]. Core Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" enhances incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, which is expected to accelerate the construction and operation of local wafer fabs, benefiting data center development [15]. - The U.S. Energy Department warns that by 2030, power outages could increase by 100 times due to load growth and plant retirements if new capacity is not added [20]. - The European Commission has issued guidelines to reduce overall grid operating costs, while the UK's energy regulator has approved a £24 billion budget to upgrade the high-voltage grid [20]. - The report highlights a strong demand for industrial robots, with global installations expected to remain stable at 541,302 units in 2024 [41]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - Data Centers: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, leading to increased data center construction, particularly before the anticipated AI load peak in 2025-2027 [15]. - Energy Construction: The FERC has rejected plans to expand regional transmission planning, which may impact future energy infrastructure projects [18]. The UK has allocated a budget to enhance its energy transmission capabilities [20]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The report notes a stable price index for electrical and special transformers, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.95% [28]. - The U.S. anticipates a significant increase in electricity demand, with projections showing a rise of 15.8% by 2029 [22]. Global Energy Industry - The average retail electricity price in the U.S. was reported at $0.13/kWh, reflecting a 1.1% decrease [3]. - The report indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario in the natural gas market, suggesting stability in pricing [5]. Global New Materials - The report tracks the price movements of uranium and rare earth materials, noting a 9.9% increase in uranium prices [4]. Global Defense and Aerospace - The aerospace sector is recovering steadily, with increased defense spending and modernization needs driving demand for high-performance structural components [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy in the nuclear sector, as well as GE Vernova and Siemens Energy in the energy infrastructure space [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or the specific companies discussed. Core Insights - Multiple new vehicle launches occurred on July 9-10, including the Zeekr 9X, Leapmotor C11, and ONVO L90, showcasing advancements in technology and competitive pricing [1][7]. - The Zeekr 9X is positioned as a new benchmark for premium electrified SUVs, emphasizing its full-stack smart driving capabilities and high-performance specifications [2][8]. - Leapmotor C11 focuses on technology accessibility and high value, offering both electric and extended-range versions with advanced features [3][11]. - ONVO L90 combines battery swapping technology with spacious design, targeting family-oriented consumers [4][14]. Summary by Sections Zeekr 9X - Built on the SEA-S platform, it features advanced smart driving technology with dual NVIDIA Thor chips and multiple sensors for L3 autonomy [2][8]. - The vehicle boasts a powerful 2.0T triple-motor system with a total output of 1030 kW, achieving 0-100 km/h in 3.1 seconds and offering a combined range exceeding 1000 km [2][10]. - Interior design includes a minimalist luxury approach with a large central display and advanced entertainment options [2][11]. Leapmotor C11 - Constructed on an 800V platform, it offers both pure electric and extended-range versions, emphasizing affordability and intelligent features [3][11]. - Equipped with a 128-line LiDAR and Qualcomm 8650 chip, it supports advanced driving assistance and immersive cabin experiences [3][12]. - The electric version provides a maximum range of 640 km, while the extended-range version achieves a total range of 1220 km [3][12]. ONVO L90 - Designed on a 900V high-voltage platform, it supports NIO's battery swapping technology and features a spacious interior with a three-row, six-seat layout [4][14]. - Performance includes a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 5.9 seconds for the rear-wheel drive version and 4.7 seconds for the all-wheel drive version [4][15]. - Safety features include a robust structure with 9 airbags and advanced driver assistance systems [4][15].

Tax Policy Impacts - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act (OBBB) aims to extend and expand tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently[1][7] - The Act repeals provisions from the Biden administration aimed at reducing traditional energy consumption, benefiting traditional energy companies[1][7] Indirect Support for Infrastructure and AI - OBBB does not directly fund traditional manufacturing or infrastructure projects but focuses on tax policy and deregulation, which may indirectly support infrastructure and AI development by reducing corporate costs[2][8] - Permanent full expensing provisions for equipment, R&D, and plants allow companies to deduct the full cost of capital investments immediately, reducing financial burdens and encouraging investment in advanced manufacturing[3][9] Opportunity Zones and Investment Attraction - The Act expands Opportunity Zones to attract private capital into economically distressed areas, enhancing investment in projects like smart city technology and logistics hubs[4][10] - Deregulation measures simplify the approval process for infrastructure projects, potentially accelerating project timelines[4][10] Economic Growth and Local Industry - Tax cuts and capacity expansion incentives are expected to enhance the profitability and competitiveness of domestic industrial enterprises in the U.S. market[5][11] - Increased production capacity is anticipated to improve market share and meet local manufacturing demands, while personal tax reductions may boost overall consumption[5][11] Investment Recommendations - Companies that may benefit from the policy's tax cuts and required equipment investments include Vistra, Constellation, Talen Energy, GE Vernova, Schneider Electric, Eaton, Vertiv, Honeywell, Cummins, and Caterpillar[6][12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, changes in U.S. policy, and geopolitical uncertainties[6][13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the cross-border payment industry in China, benefiting from the expansion of cross-border e-commerce [4][18]. - The company has obtained 65 global payment licenses, enabling it to provide a wide range of digital payment services [4][18]. - The projected revenue growth for the company is robust, with expected revenues of RMB 1,315 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 2,577 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [3][44]. - The company is expected to experience significant fluctuations in profits due to a one-time large investment gain in 2025, with net profits projected to be RMB 1,485 million in 2025, followed by losses in 2026 and a small profit in 2027 [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 1,315 million in 2024, RMB 1,652 million in 2025, RMB 2,089 million in 2026, and RMB 2,577 million in 2027, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit is expected to be negative RMB 168 million in 2024, positive RMB 1,485 million in 2025, negative RMB 73 million in 2026, and positive RMB 27 million in 2027 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.16 in 2024, 1.38 in 2025, -0.07 in 2026, and 0.03 in 2027 [3][10]. Business Overview - The company has established a global payment network, serving over 590,000 clients with a total transaction payment volume (TPV) of RMB 3.3 trillion in 2024 [4][25]. - The company’s digital payment services include both global and domestic payment solutions, with global payments accounting for approximately 60% of total revenue [25][30]. - The company is expanding its value-added services, which are expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 50%, 35%, and 30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. Market Potential - The cross-border e-commerce and export trade markets in China are expected to continue expanding, with the total export value projected to reach nearly RMB 47 trillion by 2027 [46]. - The demand for cross-border payment solutions is increasing as traditional foreign trade embraces digitalization and online operations [46][52]. - The cross-border payment service market in China is projected to grow from RMB 4.6 trillion in 2022 to RMB 14.1 trillion by 2027, with a CAGR of 25.2% [52][56].

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Maintain 'Outperform' rating with a target price of RMB 42.15 [1][43] - Core Viewpoint: The company's data-cloud integration strategy is effective, with high growth expected in proprietary brand and export businesses [1][44] - Revenue and Profit Forecast: For 2024, revenue is projected at RMB 128.17 billion, up 7.14% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 753 million, down 35.77% YoY [3][44] Group 2 - Financial Summary: Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 136.36 billion in 2025 to RMB 147.25 billion in 2027, with net profit increasing from RMB 1.20 billion to RMB 1.62 billion during the same period [3][5] - Business Segmentation: IT distribution and value-added services dominate, with revenue from IT distribution expected to reach RMB 130.67 billion in 2025, while proprietary brand revenue is forecasted at RMB 5.96 billion [17][19] - Cloud Services Growth: Revenue from cloud services is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 20% in 2025 [19][20] Group 3 - Core Business Strategy: The company focuses on a "data-cloud integration" strategy, enhancing digital capabilities across various industries [23][30] - Competitive Advantage: The company has a comprehensive cloud and digital technology capability, providing a full range of AI services and cloud professional services [26][29] - International Expansion: The company is pursuing an overseas strategy, leveraging its proprietary products and services to enhance its global presence [30][39]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - Microsoft is undergoing significant organizational restructuring, including a layoff of approximately 9,000 employees, which represents about 4% of its total workforce. This move is aimed at reallocating resources to better support its long-term AI strategy and enhance operational efficiency [1][4]. - The integration of generative AI capabilities into core products like Office, Windows, and Azure is reshaping job roles within Microsoft, leading to a reduced demand for traditional sales and management positions [2][3]. - The layoffs reflect a proactive adjustment to the talent structure, prioritizing roles that can leverage AI tools and create composite value, such as AI solution architects and data center schedulers [3][5]. Summary by Sections Organizational Changes - Microsoft is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities by reallocating resources from traditional roles to positions that support AI and cloud services, particularly in Azure, which is expected to grow at a rate of 34% in FY2025 [7]. - The restructuring involves cutting positions in non-core areas like Xbox while increasing hiring for technical roles that align with AI product development [5][7]. AI Integration - The report highlights that approximately 20-30% of code is now generated by AI, indicating a significant shift in how work is performed within the company [2]. - The demand for sales roles is evolving, requiring a shift towards more technically skilled personnel who can engage in solution-oriented sales rather than traditional relationship-driven sales [7]. Long-term Strategy - The layoffs are not merely cost-cutting measures but are part of a broader strategy to support the growth of AI and cloud services, indicating a clear prioritization of AI talent and resources over traditional business functions [5][6].