行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工程机械行业点评报告 4 月挖机出口表现亮眼，看好海外需求加速 推荐（维持） 复苏 风险提示：国内经济复苏趋缓；市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 邮箱：chenhongyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524100002 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 三一重工 | 19.72 | 1.02 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 19.25 | 15.46 | 12.30 | 2.19 | 强推 | | 恒立液压 | 76.10 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 3.09 | 35.52 | 29.69 | 24.62 | 5.73 | 强推 | | 中联重科 | 7.63 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 CNY per share [2][9]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 28.056 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 14.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million CNY, down 95.24% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.955 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 190 million CNY, down 44.68% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is experiencing a gradual optimization of its channels and improvement in cash flow, despite the ongoing decline in the real estate sector [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue of 28,056 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -14.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 108 million CNY, with a growth rate of -95.2% [5]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue of 29,877 million CNY, with a growth rate of 6.5%. Projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 1,438 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1,229.8% [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is 0.60 CNY, increasing to 0.74 CNY in 2026 and 0.98 CNY in 2027 [5][9]. Business Segment Analysis - **Revenue Breakdown**: In 2024, retail business revenue was 10.2 billion CNY, accounting for approximately 36.39% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 9.92%. The engineering channel and direct sales generated revenues of 13.4 billion CNY and 4.3 billion CNY, respectively [9]. - **Product Performance**: Revenue from waterproof membranes, coatings, mortar powder, and engineering construction was 11.8 billion CNY, 8.8 billion CNY, 4.2 billion CNY, and 1.6 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.45%, -8.96%, -1.06%, and -51.37% [9]. Cash Flow and Cost Management - **Cash Flow Improvement**: In Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -0.81 billion CNY, an improvement of 56.98% compared to the previous period. The expense ratio decreased to 17%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - **Cost Structure**: The company is optimizing its cost structure, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios reported at 9.1%, 6.1%, 1.7%, and 0.2%, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [6][18]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a recovery phase, driven by increased domestic demand and favorable monetary and fiscal policies. The report highlights the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry [6][18]. - Excavator sales in April 2025 showed significant growth, with domestic sales reaching 12,547 units (up 16.4% year-on-year) and exports at 9,595 units (up 19.3% year-on-year) [6][18]. - The report emphasizes three key directions for the robotics sector: marginal changes in the main chains, the evolution from product to customer scenarios, and the focus on core components and processing efficiency [6][18]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The report suggests that the automation market in China is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025, driven by OEM market recovery and increased demand for industrial automation [18][19]. - Key companies recommended for investment include 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric), and 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric), all of which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the automation sector [18][20]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data indicating a total market capitalization of 50,722.59 billion yuan for the machinery sector, with a circulation market value of 41,442.66 billion yuan [3][6]. - The machinery sector's performance over the past month shows an absolute increase of 10.7% and a relative increase of 6.4% compared to the broader market indices [4][10]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with 汇川技术 projected to have an EPS of 2.12 yuan in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 32.80 [2][7]. - Other companies such as 法兰泰克 (Flantak) and 信捷电气 are also highlighted with strong earnings growth and favorable valuations, reinforcing the positive investment sentiment in the sector [2][7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 金融政策率先启动——政策周观察第 29 期 4 月政治局会议后，货币金融政策率先启动。5 月 7 日，央行、证监会、金融 监管总局主要负责人出席国新办新闻发布会，介绍一揽子金融政策。参考点评 《为"确定性"护航——5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"学习 理解》。 1、央行潘行长公布了十项货币政策措施：①降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点； ②阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5%调降为 0%；③下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点；④下调结构货性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点；⑤降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；⑥增加 3000 亿元 科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度；⑦设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"； ⑧增加支农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元；⑨将证券基金保险公司互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款的额度合并使用；⑩创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 2、国家金融监督管理总局李局长公布了八项政策措施：①加快出台与房地产 发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度；②进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范 围；③进一步调降保险公司股票投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [49]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing a resurgence in the film and gaming markets, driven by advancements in AI applications and cultural confidence stemming from popular IPs like "Nezha" [3][6]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in reshaping the industry landscape, with a focus on public cloud value reconstruction and the return to growth for related companies [6][9]. - The gaming market shows strong performance, with Tencent and NetEase leading in iOS sales rankings, indicating a healthy competitive environment [16][19]. - The film market is recovering, with total box office revenue reaching 239 billion yuan as of May 9, 2025, which is approximately 102% of the 2019 level [20][23]. Market Performance Review - The media (Shenwan) index rose by 1.40% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.00%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 0.61% [9][10]. - The report notes that the media sector ranks 24th among all sectors in terms of performance [9]. Industry Highlights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in various sectors, including gaming and education, suggesting a focus on companies like Huya, Giant Network, and Perfect World for gaming, and New Oriental and TAL Education for education [6][30]. - The film industry is expected to benefit from a strong pipeline of upcoming releases, with several key films set to debut in mid-May [29][30]. Company Announcements - Perfect World announced a 2025 employee stock ownership plan, indicating a commitment to employee engagement and retention [36]. - Wanda Film disclosed plans for a share reduction by a major shareholder, which may impact market sentiment [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has entered a volatile period without obvious drivers. The short - term impact of the current economic fundamentals on the bond market is limited, and the short - end has fully reacted to the loose funds. The stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [1][2]. - After the interest rate cut, although the short - end benefits may gradually spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The bond market has entered a spread - mining market [3]. - In terms of different maturities, the rotation pattern of government bonds from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end is obvious. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Enters a Volatile Period without Obvious Drivers - **Fundamentals**: The economic data in April is divergent. Exports are still strong, but the PMI reflects a downward expectation. The second - quarter fundamentals may face some disturbances, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [1]. - **Monetary Policy**: The favorable monetary policy has been implemented, and the funds are loose. The short - end has fully reacted, and the subsequent downward breakthrough of funds still needs to be observed [1]. - **Equity Market**: After the double - cut this time, the equity market has performed steadily, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: How to Compress Spreads in the Volatile Period? - Although the short - end benefits may spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The previous low may be an important resistance level [3]. - In terms of different maturities, government bonds show a rotation pattern from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: After the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, the Yield Curve Steepens - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO has a large - scale net withdrawal, and the funding is balanced and loose [8]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased, while that of policy - bank bonds and local government bonds has decreased [8]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and CDB bonds have both widened [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway (601006) [1] Core Views - The coal transportation volume is under pressure, leading to a decline in performance, but the company’s core asset value remains promising [1] - In April, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive, indicating potential recovery [1] - The company is viewed as a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, especially given its core asset's strategic importance in China's energy transportation system [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 74,627 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with net profit at 9,039 million, down 24.2% [2][6] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 17,801 million, a decline of 2.56%, and a net profit of 2,571 million, down 15.61% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6] Operational Performance - The freight business, which is the main revenue source, generated 53,441 million in 2024, a decrease of 12.73%, accounting for 72.88% of total revenue [6] - The company transported 70,622 million tons of goods in 2024, down 2.7% year-on-year [6] - Passenger transport revenue increased by 12.23% in 2024, reaching 10,010 million, with 46.41 million passengers transported [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 99,520 million and 103,360 million respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 104,260 million [6] - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% based on 2025 earnings [6]

行业研究 上周量化私募超额有所回升，中性策略正收益。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下： 1）300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/-1.3%/-1.8%，周/月/年初以来平均 超额分别为+0.1%/+0.9%/+3.3%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.4%/- 1.7%/+2.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.3%/+2%/+7.1%；3）A500 增强策略周/月 /年初以来平均收益分别为-0.2%/+1.5%/+5.6%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为- 0.1%/+4.1%/+11%；4）1000 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.7%/-1.2%/+5.4%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.5%/+3%/+9.2%；5）空气指增策略周/月/年初以来平均 收益分别为+0.8%/-0.2%/+7.8%；6）市场中性策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 +0.2%/+0.8%/+4.4%。 指数收益情况：1）沪深 300 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.4%/- 0.2%/+1.9%；2）中证 1000 相对中证 500 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, suggesting an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [28]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict highlights the importance of military and satellite sectors, with a recommendation to focus on these areas for potential investment opportunities [14][20]. - The communication industry has shown resilience, with a 4.96% increase in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.95 percentage points [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the growing significance of national defense and military capabilities, particularly in the context of low-orbit satellites, which have gained attention during the recent conflict [20]. Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 45,863.87 billion and a circulating market value of about 20,038.81 billion [3]. - The industry has experienced a year-to-date decline of 3.21%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 2.26% [7]. Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the communication sector for the week include Jialitu (+27.01%), Youfang Technology (+23.40%), and Xinyi Technology (+21.63%) [11]. - Conversely, the stocks with the largest declines include Aojie Technology-U (-12.69%) and Shengke Communication-U (-6.81%) [11]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [21]. - For optical modules and related components, the report recommends Xinyi Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang, while suggesting attention to Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photon [21]. - In the military/satellite communication sector, the report highlights Haige Communication, Shanghai Hanhua, and Qiyi Er as key investment opportunities [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][19]. Core Insights - The company's coal transportation volume has been under pressure, leading to a decline in performance. However, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive in April, and the core asset value of the company remains promising [1][6]. - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 746.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90.39 billion yuan, down 24.23% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the freight business, which is the main source of revenue, with a revenue of 534.41 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.73% year-on-year [6]. - The passenger transport business showed good growth, with revenue of 100.1 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.23% year-on-year [6]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 787.43 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 99.52 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery from previous declines [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 57.31% for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on May 9, 2025 [6]. Operational Performance - The Daqin line completed a freight volume of 39.215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery with a 0.99% increase in April 2025 [6]. - The average daily loading and unloading operations were reported at 29,350 and 23,703 cars, respectively, with a freight car turnaround time of 2.3 days [6]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Daqin Railway is a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, emphasizing its strategic position in China's energy transportation system [6]. - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6].