Macro Analysis - The current macro policy emphasizes "certainty in high-quality development" to address the uncertainties arising from external changes, particularly U.S. tariffs[3] - China maintains a stance of openness and stable growth, providing a "certainty" for capital markets, while the U.S. approach introduces "uncertainty" through protectionist measures[3] - The recent U.S. tariffs may impact loan demand, but timely monetary easing measures like rate cuts can help mitigate these effects[3] Market Strategy - The liquidity support from the "national team" is substantial, with ETF inflows reaching approximately CNY 167.32 billion since April 7, 2025[25] - Economic pressure in Q2 2025 is expected to be limited, with GDP growth forecasted to adjust from 4.8% to 4.5% due to tariff impacts[26] - The market is transitioning from a phase of stabilization to one where profit-making effects may amplify, despite a potential slowdown in the rate of increase[32] Monetary Policy - The recent dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates aims to stabilize growth, with a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy rate expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by a similar margin[36] - Structural monetary tools have seen a price reduction of 0.25%, which is estimated to save around CNY 150 billion in interest expenses[37] - The central bank's actions are designed to enhance liquidity and support the real economy, particularly in sectors like technology and consumption[30] Investment Recommendations - A balanced investment strategy focusing on small-cap growth and dividend stocks is advised, with attention to sectors such as technology and consumer services[33] - The report suggests maintaining high positions in the market while being cautious of potential volatility due to external factors[14]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 一、人流：主要流向东部，但规模已不及 2019 年 农民工从哪里来，到哪里去？2024 年，农民工总数为 3.0 亿人，总量创新高， 占到我国就业总人数的 41%。从输出地看，农民工主要来自东部、中部地区， 分别为 1.1、1.0 亿人，占到 35%、33%。而输入地主要集中在东部，为 1.5 亿 人、占比 51%。 短期看，农民工仍在向东部流动。使用各地区农民工输入数-输出数，观察农 民工的净流动情况。2024 年农民工净流入集中在东部、其他地区（中国港澳 台地区及海外），2024 年分别净流入 4834、89 万人，同比增长 41、19 万人。 【宏观快评】 农民工群体的五点观察 ❖ 核心观点 2024 年农民工群体已达 3 亿人，创历史新高，本文关注农民工的近况。 1）从人口流动来看，2024 年农民工仍主要流向东部地区，但对比 2019 年， 净流入规模已减少约 450 万人。 2&3）从就业&工资来看，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡 量）两个维度，2024 年，建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、 但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 16 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) business shows steady growth, while the rehabilitation treatment business faces pressure [2][8]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.20% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up by 5.12% [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.82 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Total revenue of 1,148 million yuan, net profit of 345 million yuan [4]. - 2025E: Expected revenue of 1,268 million yuan (+10.4% YoY), net profit of 391 million yuan (+13.1% YoY) [4]. - 2026E: Expected revenue of 1,450 million yuan (+14.4% YoY), net profit of 448 million yuan (+14.8% YoY) [4]. - 2027E: Expected revenue of 1,670 million yuan (+15.2% YoY), net profit of 519 million yuan (+15.7% YoY) [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.81 yuan, 2025E: 0.91 yuan, 2026E: 1.05 yuan, 2027E: 1.21 yuan [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 14 times, decreasing to 11 times by 2027E [4]. Business Segment Performance - **IVD Business**: - Revenue from IVD business in 2024 reached 911 million yuan (+9.96% YoY), with a significant increase in reagent revenue by 25.73% [8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 67.21% (+1.40 percentage points) due to the higher proportion of high-margin IVD reagents [8]. - **Rehabilitation Treatment Business**: - Revenue decreased to 220 million yuan (-27.68% YoY) due to a high base effect from the previous year [8]. - Clinical medical business revenue fell by 40.62%, while consumer health business grew by 36.29% [8]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to face short-term pressure in Q1 2025 due to high revenue base effects and pricing pressures in the IVD segment [8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 3.9 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.2 billion yuan by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 49 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.471 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.62% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.194 billion yuan, down 1.89% [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 996 million yuan, a decrease of 8.56%, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, down 16.76% [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.26 yuan per share (before tax) [2]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is 4,471 million yuan, with a projected growth of 4.2% in 2025, reaching 4,658 million yuan [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is 1,194 million yuan, with an expected increase to 1,264 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 5.9% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.09 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.21 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The company’s overall gross margin for 2024 is 65.41%, showing a slight increase of 0.34 percentage points [8]. Business Performance - Domestic revenue is under pressure, with a slight decline of 1.16% to 4.185 billion yuan, while overseas revenue is growing rapidly at 36.57%, reaching 286 million yuan [8]. - The company emphasizes the importance of research and development, with a research expense ratio of 16.37% in 2024, up 1.60 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights the launch of new products, including the AutoChem B2000 and B8000 series, and advancements in genetic sequencing technology [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 42 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 443 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 5.90% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan, down 7.11% [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue increase of 31.59% to 124 million yuan and a net profit increase of 37.92% to 38 million yuan, indicating a potential upward turning point in performance [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 443 million yuan in 2024 to 828 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 136 million yuan in 2024 to 281 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2024 to 2.34 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 31 to 15 [4][9]. Business Performance Insights - The company's medical endoscope business generated 345 million yuan in revenue for 2024, down 7.04%, while optical revenue was 95 million yuan, down 1.80% [9]. - International revenue for 2024 was 306 million yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, while domestic revenue was 135 million yuan, down 4.70% [9]. - The company has a backlog of 360 million yuan in orders from major clients as of the end of 2024, indicating strong future demand [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully completed certifications for its overseas subsidiaries, reducing trade friction risks and enabling smoother order fulfillment in the U.S. market [9]. - New product registrations for various endoscope products targeting domestic markets have been completed, and new models for the U.S. market are set to enter mass production [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Dongfang Yuhong, with a target price of 15 CNY per share [2][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 28.056 billion CNY, down 14.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 108 million CNY, down 95.24% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also saw a revenue drop of 16.71% year-on-year to 5.955 billion CNY, with a net profit of 190 million CNY, down 44.68% year-on-year [2][9]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company is optimizing its channels and improving cash flow, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter of 2025 [9]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 28,056 million CNY - Year-on-year growth rate: -14.5% - Net profit: 108 million CNY - Year-on-year growth rate: -95.2% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.05 CNY - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E): 250 [5][10] - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 29,877 million CNY - Expected net profit: 1,438 million CNY - Expected EPS: 0.60 CNY - Expected P/E: 19 [5][10] - **2026 and 2027 Projections**: - 2026 expected total revenue: 32,232 million CNY, net profit: 1,765 million CNY, EPS: 0.74 CNY, P/E: 15 - 2027 expected total revenue: 35,858 million CNY, net profit: 2,332 million CNY, EPS: 0.98 CNY, P/E: 12 [5][10]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price has shown a significant decline of 35% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [8].

Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand, essential needs, and investment-driven sectors in the short term, including civil explosives, compound fertilizers, and Xinjiang coal chemical industries [11] - In the medium term, it recommends paying attention to structural opportunities created by trade rebalancing, particularly in new materials and safety guarantees [11] - Long-term strategies should consider the demand resonance formed by global economic responses to crises, particularly in chemical blue-chip investments at the bottom of the oil price cycle [11] Industry Overview - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 78.64, down 0.94% week-on-week and down 21.50% year-on-year [12] - The industry price percentile is at 21.70% over the past 10 years, down 0.37% week-on-week, while the industry inventory percentile is at 85.19%, up 2.86% week-on-week [12] - Key price increases this week include: - Acetochlor (+20.0%) - Henry Natural Gas (+5.6%) - Urea (+5.1%) [12] Key Chemical Products - The report highlights that the prices of acetochlor, Henry natural gas, and urea have seen significant increases due to supply constraints and strong demand from downstream markets [4][12] - The report notes that the agricultural chemical sector is expected to benefit from rising prices driven by seasonal demand during the spring plowing season [14] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is poised for significant investment opportunities, with multiple projects entering the EPC bidding phase in 2025 [15][16] Specific Company Recommendations - Companies to focus on in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector include: - Baofeng Energy - Tebian Electric Apparatus - Guanghui Energy - Hubei Yihua [20][22] - For companies providing services to coal chemical projects, the report recommends: - Xuefeng Technology - Guangdong Hongda - Yipuli [20] - In the new materials sector, companies like Bluestar Technology, Ruifeng New Materials, and Huaheng Biological are highlighted for their potential due to technological breakthroughs and favorable valuations [21] Market Trends - The report indicates that the vitamin and refrigerant sectors are expected to benefit from supply constraints and demand recovery, with a focus on small chemical products [24] - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing a price increase trend, with several products seeing significant price rises due to strong demand and supply dynamics [14][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing developments in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, which is expected to play a crucial role in China's energy independence strategy [22]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 "科创债"新政了解一下 ❖ 2025 年 5 月 6 日，央行、证监会发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜 的公告》（简称"公告"），从丰富科技创新债券产品体系和完善科技创新债券 配套支持机制等方面，对支持科技创新债券发行提出若干举措；5 月 7 日，国 新办新闻发布会上，央行推出十项措施以加大宏观调控强度，其中一项为"创 设科技创新债券风险分担工具"，同日，交易所发布《关于进一步支持发行科 技创新债券服务新质生产力的通知》，交易商协会发布《关于推出科技创新债 券 构建债市"科技板"的通知》，完善科技创新债券配套规则。 ❖ 新政要点解读：拓宽科创债发行主体范围，完善发行、信披与增信制度。 一是，拓宽科创债发行主体范围及募集资金投向范围，新增金融机构和股权投 资机构。交易所新增支持商业银行、证券公司、金融资产投资公司等金融机构 以及私募股权投资机构、创业投资机构等股权投资机构作为发行主体；交易商 协会拓宽科技型企业的认定标准，并新增支持私募股权投资、创业投资、产业 股权投资等机构及其母公司作为发行主体。 二是，优化完善科创债发行条款，便于匹配资金使用需求。交易所 ...

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Recommendation" for the company, with a target price of 15.3 CNY based on a projected 30 times PE for 2025 [1][7]. Core Views - The company's main business is gradually recovering, with significant performance in the pet business. The report predicts a net profit of 177 million CNY for 2025 and 211 million CNY for 2026, with an EPS of 0.51 CNY and 0.61 CNY respectively [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,043 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 93 million CNY, down 46.82%. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 279 million CNY, up 18.32%, with a net profit of 53 million CNY, up 93.75% [1][3]. - The financial indicators forecast total revenue growth of 20.6% in 2025, 16.3% in 2026, and 13.3% in 2027. The net profit is expected to grow by 91.2% in 2025 and 19.1% in 2026 [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - The report highlights that the pig vaccine revenue for 2024 was 336 million CNY, down 22.58% year-on-year, while poultry vaccine revenue was 429 million CNY, up 3.31%. The pet business showed remarkable growth, with total revenue of 46.21 million CNY, up 125.16% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the pig vaccine revenue was 66.19 million CNY, down 11.64%, while poultry vaccine revenue increased by 33.80% to 123 million CNY. The pet business continued to perform well, with total revenue of 15.13 million CNY, up 90.58% [1][7]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company demonstrated effective cost control in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 18.99%, an increase of 7.39 percentage points year-on-year. The overall gross margin for 2024 was 61.09%, remaining stable despite pressures on pig vaccine margins [1][7]. Research and Innovation - The company continues to invest in research and development, enhancing its product matrix with new vaccines and medications. Recent approvals for important products are expected to open new market opportunities [1][7].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工程机械行业点评报告 4 月挖机出口表现亮眼，看好海外需求加速 推荐（维持） 复苏 风险提示：国内经济复苏趋缓；市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 邮箱：chenhongyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524100002 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 三一重工 | 19.72 | 1.02 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 19.25 | 15.46 | 12.30 | 2.19 | 强推 | | 恒立液压 | 76.10 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 3.09 | 35.52 | 29.69 | 24.62 | 5.73 | 强推 | | 中联重科 | 7.63 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.8 ...