行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/16~2025/06/21） 推荐（维持） 超额整体为正，市场成交量有所回落 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 非银行金融 2025 年 06 月 21 日 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/16~2025/06/21） | 华创证券研究所 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | 证券分析师：刘潇伟 | | 电话：021-20572556 | 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360525020001 | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | | 各量化超额整体为正。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周/月/ 年初以来平均收益分别为+0.1%/+1.7%/+2.7%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 +0.2%/+0.8%/+4.9%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0%/+2.8%/+7.8%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.2%/ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250620 市场概况：今日转债多数行业下跌，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.01%、上证综指环比下降 0.07%、深证成 指环比下降 0.47%、创业板指环比下降 0.83%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.31%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.80%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.02%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.76%、中盘成长环比下降 0.48%、中盘价值环比下降 0.11%、小盘成长环比下 降 0.83%、小盘价值环比下降 0.20%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 573.28 亿元，环比 增长 0.35%；万得全 A 总成交额为 10917.40 亿元，环比减少 14.77%；沪深两 市主力净流出 223.42 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.29bp 至 1.64%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.43 元，环比昨日下降 0.02%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 159.13 元，环比 下降 3.37%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 赋时间以价值——时间调查公报解析 单位时间价值的变化揭示着居民活动从追逐城镇化进程及产业规模扩张，向个 人发展质量提升的逻辑转换。从单位时间价值的增速来看，2008-2018 年交通 出行、学习培训、睡觉休息的年均增速较高，背后是中国城镇化扩张期下劳动 力流动的需求；2018-2024 年文娱社交、劳动就业、购买商品或服务、运动健 身、个护的增速较为可观，背后主要是经济转型期下对个人发展质量的追求。 各活动单位时间价值变动原因解析：从城镇化红利到个人发展需求。 对单位时间价值的分子端产生价值量和分母端活动小时进行拆分解析，其变化 原因主要为： 技术革新：互联网使用时长倍增，直播电商缩减购物时间； 人口结构：老龄化使得劳动适龄人口占比下滑，平均劳动就业时长缩短； 消费升级：文娱社交、高端美妆代表的悦己消费与运动健身代表的健康观念正 催化新消费增长极； 城镇化映射：地产周期变化对应睡觉休息价值量变动，交通出行单位时间价值 增速先增后降反应城镇化扩张与走缓。 统计局行业分类视角下各行业单位时间人均产出：各行业单位时间人均产出= 人均 GDP 产出/就业人员平均工作时间。 从单位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [30]. Core Insights - In May, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.2% year-on-year growth, with a total of 173.2 billion packages delivered. Cumulatively, from January to May, the industry delivered 787.7 billion packages, reflecting a 20.1% year-on-year increase [5][8]. - The industry's revenue in May reached 1255.5 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, while the cumulative revenue from January to May was 5924.6 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year [5][8]. - The average revenue per package in May was 7.25 yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, with the cumulative average for the first five months at 7.52 yuan, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year [5][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The express delivery industry continues to show strong growth, with major players like SF Express leading in volume growth at 31.8% year-on-year in May, followed by YTO Express at 21.0% and Shentong Express at 16.4% [5][6]. - Cumulatively, from January to May, SF Express also led with a 24.4% year-on-year growth, followed by Shentong at 23.0% and YTO at 22.3% [5][6]. Company Performance - In terms of revenue growth for May, YTO Express led with a 14.9% increase, followed by SF Express at 13.4% and Shentong at 13.0%. Cumulatively, Shentong's revenue grew by 17.0% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average of 10.3% [5][6]. - The report highlights that SF Express has implemented an "activation operation" strategy, which has significantly boosted its business volume and revenue growth, maintaining its position as the industry leader for three consecutive months [5][6]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the express delivery industry's resilience in demand, particularly in e-commerce logistics. It suggests that the industry is moving towards a more favorable competitive landscape, with major players adjusting their pricing strategies [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Shentong and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the evolving market dynamics and potential performance rebounds [5][6].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 拟全资收购索尔思光电，有望打开第三成长 曲线 事项： ❖ 公司董事会 2025 年 6 月 13 日同意公司全资子香港超毅拟收购索尔思光电 100%股份，以及公司认购其可转债，其中索尔思光电 100%股份收购对价不超 过 6.29 亿美元；索尔思光电 ESOP 权益收购对价不超过 0.58 亿美元；为支持 索尔思光电经营发展需要以及偿还万通发展认购的可转债，公司拟认购目标公 司不超过 10 亿元的可转债。本次交易完成后，香港超毅将持有索尔思光电 100%股份，索尔思光电将成为公司全资子公司。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 36,770 | 44,058 | 55,343 | 60,418 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.3% | 19.8% | 25.6% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,086 | 3,018 | 5,014 | 6,032 | | 同比增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jianghuai Automobile, with a target price of 59.24 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 42% from the current price of 41.63 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - The launch of the ZunJie S800 has exceeded expectations, with over 5,000 pre-orders within 19 days of its release. The vehicle is priced between 708,000 to 1,018,000 CNY, and if its competitiveness surpasses that of rivals like the 78S, it could accelerate sales growth and expand market share [2][3]. - Revenue forecasts for Jianghuai's self-owned business are projected to reach 43.6 billion, 46.9 billion, and 49.2 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, while ZunJie business revenues are expected to be 3.8 billion, 13 billion, and 22.2 billion CNY in the same period. Overall revenue estimates have been revised upwards to 47.5 billion, 60 billion, and 71.5 billion CNY for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13%, 26%, and 19% respectively [3][8]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for the parent company from -150 million, 1.64 billion, and 2.79 billion CNY to -60 million, 1.48 billion, and 3.75 billion CNY for 2025 to 2027. This indicates a significant improvement in profitability expectations [3][8]. - The report anticipates long-term revenue for Jianghuai's self-owned business to reach 59.4 billion CNY and net profit for the ZunJie business to hit 12.4 billion CNY, suggesting a substantial growth potential [3]. Market Positioning - The ZunJie S800 is positioned to compete with luxury brands by offering high-quality features comparable to traditional luxury sedans, supported by Huawei's brand strength and innovative technology [3][7]. - The collaboration between Jianghuai and Huawei is expected to create a unique value proposition in the luxury vehicle market, enhancing Jianghuai's competitiveness and potential for high returns on equity (ROE) [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment rating for the Chinese yellow wine industry, indicating a revival is on the horizon [2]. Core Insights - The yellow wine industry, despite its rich cultural heritage and potential, has been undervalued and faces several challenges that need addressing for a revival [5][12]. - The industry is expected to benefit from external strategic opportunities, including a shift in consumer preferences towards milder, health-oriented beverages and increased government support [5][6]. - Key players like Gu Yue Long Shan and Kuaijishan are positioned to lead the transformation within the industry, with Kuaijishan showing proactive management and innovation [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Yellow wine is recognized as one of the three major ancient wines globally, with a history spanning thousands of years, yet it has seen a decline in prominence since the late Qing Dynasty [5][12]. - The total market capitalization of the yellow wine industry is approximately 787.2 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of about 698.06 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Opportunities - The industry is entering a strategic window for revival, driven by improved supply-side dynamics, changing consumer demands for health-oriented products, and increased local government support [6][7]. - The trend towards high-end consumption in the alcohol market, previously seen in white and beer categories, is expected to extend to yellow wine [5][6]. Challenges and Recommendations - The yellow wine industry faces challenges such as low consumer recognition, small scale, and pricing issues, which need to be addressed for value recovery [6][32]. - Recommendations include improving production techniques, redefining market positioning, enhancing brand narratives, and restructuring governance to attract talent and improve operational efficiency [7][8][35]. Competitive Landscape - Gu Yue Long Shan is identified as the industry leader with strong brand recognition, while Kuaijishan is noted for its agile management and innovative approaches [7][8]. - The report suggests that Kuaijishan's proactive reforms could set a precedent for the industry, while Gu Yue Long Shan may need to catch up in terms of operational efficiency [7][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250619 市场概况：今日转债多数行业下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.49%、上证综指环比下降 0.79%、深证成 指环比下降 1.21%、创业板指环比下降 1.36%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.54%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.42%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.64%、大盘价值环比下降 0.55%、中盘成长环比下降 0.89%、中盘价值环比下降 1.08%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.86%、小盘价值环比下降 1.19%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 571.27 亿元，环比 减少 4.01%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12808.90 亿元，环比增长 4.84%；沪深两 市主力净流出 393.92 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.41bp 至 1.64%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.47 元，环比昨日下降 0.46%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 164.70 元，环比 上升 2.92%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 111 ...

产业研究 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 3 期（5 月 31 日-6 月 13 日） 避险需求引导新发结构，固收类理财、债券 型基金、人寿保险占主流 银行理财产品： 基金产品： 保险产品： 综合金融 2025 年 06 月 19 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：洪锦屏 电话：0755-82755952 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516110002 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 10 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,139.79 | 0.11 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,103.69 | 0.14 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 54.6% | | 相对表现 | 11.6% | 6.9% | 45.7% | -10% 16% 43% 69% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 2024- ...

投资摘要: & Every exit is an entry somewhere else. 证券研究报告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强 -- 6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025年第4期 资产配置快评 2025年06月19日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 电话:010-66500825 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 电话:010-66500830 邮箱: guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 -Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变,对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期,上调通胀预期,其中 2025年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%,核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示,2025年降息次数或仍为两次,2026年和2027年降息次 数均从2次降至1次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕,同时对于货币政策限 制性的表达 ...