Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ping An Bank with a target price of 16.61 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The bank's net interest margin has rebounded against the trend, and core revenue performance is strong. For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank reported a revenue of 1,006.68 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 383.39 billion CNY, down 3.5% year-on-year [2][7]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.05%, unchanged from the end of the second quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 229.60%, down 8.9 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue decline has narrowed: The revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 9.8%, compared to a 10.0% decline in the first half. The third quarter saw a 9.2% year-on-year decline, with a 7% decrease compared to the second quarter, primarily due to other non-interest income [6][7]. - Core income pressure is easing: Net interest income fell by 8.3% year-on-year, with a 1.5% increase in Q3 compared to the previous quarter, driven by a rise in interest margin. Non-interest income saw a significant drop of 24.1% year-on-year due to high base effects from the previous year [6][7]. Loan and Asset Quality - Steady growth in corporate loans: Total loans increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 5.1%. New loans issued in the first three quarters amounted to 3,552 billion CNY, up 11.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - Retail loans show improvement: Personal loan balances decreased by 2.1%, but the decline is narrowing, with a 0.2% increase from the previous quarter. Housing mortgage loans increased by 8.1% year-on-year [6][7]. Profitability and Cost Management - Net interest margin recovery: The net interest margin for Q3 was 1.79%, rebounding by 3 basis points from the previous quarter. The cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 13 basis points to 1.61% [6][7]. - Wealth management and insurance business growth: Wealth management fee income grew by 16.1% year-on-year, driven by a 48.7% increase in personal insurance income [6][7]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to achieve stable and sustainable growth, with projected net profit growth rates of -2.6%, 1.7%, and 5.3% for 2025E-2027E. The current valuation corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.491x, with a target PB of 0.65x for 2026, leading to a target price of 16.61 CNY [7][8].

Inflation Data Overview - In September, the U.S. CPI increased year-on-year from 2.9% to 3%, below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI decreased year-on-year from 3.1% to 3%, matching the forecast[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3%, with used car prices falling by 0.4%[2] - Rent growth slowed, with primary residence rent increasing by 0.2%, the smallest increase since January 2021[2] - Super core services prices remained stable at 0.3%, with notable price increases in medical services (0.3%) and entertainment services (0.4%)[2] Inflation Peak Insights - Inflation has likely peaked temporarily, with CPI rising from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, a total increase of 0.7 percentage points[3] - The effective tariff rate has increased from 2.3% to 9.5% from February to July, indicating manageable tariff impacts on inflation[3] - The remaining tariff effects on core goods prices are estimated to be around 0.5 percentage points, contributing only about 0.1 percentage points to overall CPI[4] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 2023, with a projected decline to approximately 2.5% for CPI and 2.8% for core CPI by Q2 2024[5] - The Federal Reserve may continue to implement preventive rate cuts, with potential reductions of 25 basis points in October and December[5] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with the number of anticipated cuts rising from 1.92 to 2.0 for the year[34] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.79%[34]

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1020 - 1026): More Disturbances at the Month - End, CDs May Continue to Fluctuate at a Relatively High Level [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tax payments and new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange may increase capital disturbances. As the transition period of the "interest rate adjustment safeguard clause" approaches the end of November and the maturity scale of CDs is relatively large, CD issuance may still be in demand and remain in a high - level oscillation state in the short term. From a pricing perspective, CDs may continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, with the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.7%, and the price increase pressure above 1.7% being controllable, allowing for opportunistic layout [2][50] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Increases, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (October 20 - 26), the CD issuance scale was 96.324 billion yuan, and the net financing was 34.535 billion yuan (compared to 22.27 billion yuan from October 13 - 19). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 19%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 36% to 43%. In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 19% to 28%, and the weighted issuance term of CDs rose to 7.08 months (previously 6.07 months). Next week (October 27 - November 2), the maturity scale will increase to 56.431 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocation Forces, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Rises - In the secondary - market allocation, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces, with weekly net purchases of 52.116 billion yuan and 58.277 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 102.508 billion yuan to 91.151 billion yuan. In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 87%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 84% to 85%, that of joint - stock banks increased from 83% to 86%, and that of state - owned banks decreased from 85% to 84% [2][15] Valuation: CDs See a Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market and Slight Yield Fluctuations in the Secondary Market - In the primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.68%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 6 - month and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, and the 3 - month variety increased by 2bp. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 18% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 7.76BP to 10.35BP, at around the 14% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 8.27BP to 6.31BP, close to the 9% quantile. In the secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, and the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, reaching the 8% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs rose to the 20% historical quantile [2][21][31] Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - In terms of asset comparison, the spread between medium - and short - term notes and CDs continued to narrow. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15DMA of DR007 widened from 18.44BP to 23.33BP; the spread with the 15DMA of R007 widened from 9.99BP to 16.68BP; the 1 - year Treasury yield increased by 2.82bp, and the spread between CDs and Treasuries narrowed from 22.29BP to 20.34BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%; the spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.13BP to 3.30BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%; in addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 5.91BP to 3.02BP, with the quantile dropping to 9% [2][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a "deposit-loan intermediary" to a key executor of national strategies and resource allocation hubs, focusing on five major areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of financial system security, urging banks to balance profit-making with risk management while enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [3]. - The report highlights the need for banks to adapt to a more complex international competitive environment while prioritizing financial security and risk management in cross-border capital flows [3]. - The overall market performance shows a 1.40% weekly increase in the banking index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.84 percentage points [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector's total market capitalization is approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [4]. - The report notes a 3.24% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 2.88% increase in the Shanghai A-share market during the week [7]. Performance Metrics - The banking sector's absolute performance over the last month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the banking index over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of 24.4% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, highlighting the ongoing dividend plans and valuation improvement initiatives [8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, among others, due to their solid fundamentals and growth potential [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the traditional automotive sector, focusing on potential recovery in stock prices due to various catalysts [1]. Core Insights - The market has largely priced in expectations for a decline in automotive policies next year, yet stock prices in the traditional automotive sector remain under pressure, with potential catalysts including better-than-expected retail sales post-Chinese New Year, improved export performance, and favorable policies [1][5]. - The report anticipates strong financial performance in Q3 for the automotive sector, driven by good wholesale growth and the effects of reduced competition, but investment opportunities in Q4 are expected to concentrate on high-risk sub-sectors [1][5]. Data Tracking - In early October, the discount rate slightly decreased to 9.5%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, but up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The average discount amount was 21,384 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan month-on-month, but an increase of 2,937 yuan year-on-year [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 2.95%, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [8]. - The overall market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.05% [8][33]. Industry News - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a year-on-year increase of 54.5% [31]. - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, setting ambitious targets for carbon emissions reduction in the automotive industry by 2040 [31]. - In September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 632,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5% [31].

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 平台化加速，盈利超预期 事项： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度实现营收 168.44 亿元，同比 +34.13%；归母净利润 37.61 亿元，同比+38.91%；扣非归母净利润 35.4 亿元， 同比+32.92%。单 Q3 实现营收 61.07 亿元，同比+30.36%；归母净利润 13.86 亿元，同比+41.91%；扣非归母净利润 12.69 亿元，同比+32.74%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15839 | 21033 | 26192 | 30678 | | 同比增速(%) | 40.6% | 32.8% | 24.5% | 17.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3326 | 4576 | 5802 | 6968 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.1% | 37.6% | 26.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Chongqing Bank, with a target price of 13.17 CNY / 9.90 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Chongqing Bank reported a revenue of 11.74 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.879 billion CNY, up 10.19% year-on-year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 4 basis points to 1.13%, while the provision coverage ratio remained stable at 248% [2][4]. - The bank's net interest income exceeded expectations, with a quarterly revenue of 4.081 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7]. - The asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio declining and the net profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to improved revenue streams [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The bank's revenue growth is supported by strong demand for corporate loans in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with a significant increase in net interest income [7]. - **Loan Performance**: Corporate loans saw a substantial increase, with new corporate loans amounting to 21.38 billion CNY in Q3 2025, while retail loan demand weakened [7]. - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin stabilized and increased by 17 basis points to 1.40% in Q3 2025, driven by stable asset pricing and reduced funding costs [7]. - **Asset Quality**: The NPL ratio improved, with a decrease in the net generation rate of non-performing loans, indicating a reduction in credit risk [7]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2025 is 14.758 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.9% [8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.555 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% increase [8]. - **Key Ratios**: The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.36, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 0.63 [8].

- The short-term trading volume model is neutral for A-shares[2][12] - The low volatility model is neutral for A-shares[2][12] - The characteristic institutional model is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The characteristic trading volume model is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 300 is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 500 is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is neutral for A-shares[2][13] - The mid-term calendar effect model is neutral for A-shares[2][13] - The long-term momentum model is bullish for A-shares[2][14] - The comprehensive A-share model V3 is bearish[2][15] - The comprehensive A-share model for the CSI 2000 is bearish[2][15] - The mid-term trading volume to volatility model is bearish for Hong Kong stocks[2][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation and public utilities industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the clear direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on emerging pillar industries, particularly low-altitude economy and nuclear fusion energy, which are expected to create trillion-level markets [5]. - The emphasis on low-altitude economy development is reiterated through various government reports and initiatives, showcasing its strategic importance [5]. - The report identifies two major highlights: the cluster development of low-altitude economy and the potential for a trillion-level market, which is seen as a strong encouragement for industry participants [5]. - The report outlines four key application scenarios for low-altitude economy over the next 3-5 years, including tourism, passenger transport, logistics, and production operations [5]. - The report also discusses the expected acceleration in capital expenditure for nuclear fusion projects, predicting a peak in project tenders over the next 3-5 years with an estimated investment of 146 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - The transportation and public utilities industry consists of 121 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 3368.47 billion yuan [2]. - The industry has shown absolute performance of 1.8% over the past month and 7.5% over the past six months, while relative performance has been -0.3% and -15.7% respectively [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-altitude digitalization and infrastructure construction as foundational elements for the healthy development of the low-altitude economy [5]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed analysis of 12 key companies across five segments of the low-altitude economy, including manufacturers, supply chain, digitalization, infrastructure, and operations [8]. - Notable companies mentioned include WanFeng AoWei, Xirui, and YiHang Intelligent, with projected significant changes in their market valuations and profit margins over the next few years [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 38% in Q3, with a focus on the low-altitude economy industry planning outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) as a key driver for future growth [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 11.416 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 729 million yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [6][8]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of 3.922 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 38.1% to 229 million yuan [6][8]. - The company’s revenue from the automotive metal parts lightweight business was 9.385 billion yuan, showing a marginal increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while the general aviation aircraft manufacturing business generated 2.031 billion yuan, up 2.20% year-on-year [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the significant potential of the low-altitude economy, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" indicating a clear direction for the development of strategic emerging industries, potentially creating a market worth trillions [6][8]. - The acquisition of Volocopter is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's eVTOL product matrix and accelerate commercialization, with expectations for organic synergy between Diamond Aircraft and Volocopter [6][8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 to be approximately 1.07 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.50 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34 times [6][11].