Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 69.04 HKD [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in its data, indicating stabilization in its performance. The growth momentum is expected to be strong due to new product launches and global expansion efforts [9]. - The company is a leader in the application of synthetic biology in the beauty and medical fields, with a high technical barrier and increasing brand recognition [9]. - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 6,907 million HKD in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [5][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 5,539 million HKD - 2025: 6,907 million HKD - 2026: 8,495 million HKD - 2027: 10,312 million HKD - Net profit projections are: - 2024: 2,062 million HKD - 2025: 2,502 million HKD - 2026: 3,008 million HKD - 2027: 3,655 million HKD - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.01 HKD in 2024 to 3.41 HKD in 2027 [5][10][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity and global footprint, including establishing a regional headquarters in Xiamen and participating in international trade shows [9]. - The core team remains stable, focusing on continuous product development, particularly in functional skincare and medical devices [9]. - Supply chain management is being optimized to enhance cost control and market responsiveness, ensuring stable growth [9].

Macro Insights - Recent data shows a weakening trend, with production investment declining sharply, which is different from last year's supply-demand dynamics[1] - Current economic conditions suggest two potential policy paths: "suppress supply + boost demand" or a return to "productive investment"[1] - The optimal path involves maintaining a weak adjustment in manufacturing investment while implementing policies to stimulate domestic demand[1] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold and suggests a strategy of "buying stocks like bonds" as equity and bond markets are expected to reverse roles[1] - The "anti-involution bull market" is supported by a favorable policy environment and liquidity conditions, shifting market drivers from financial re-inflation to real asset inflation[2] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on low-volatility assets in a low-price environment, with a shift towards growth and cyclical sectors as inflation expectations rise[2] Fixed Income Outlook - The bond market is currently in a challenging phase, but opportunities may arise as the end of October approaches, with potential support from central bank actions and reduced government bond supply[3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring credit conditions and the impact of policy changes on bond market sentiment[3] U.S. Federal Reserve Signals - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the Fed emphasizing that the labor market's weakness may not be persistent and that inflation risks remain elevated[4] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised upward, with 2025 GDP growth expectations increased by 0.2% to 1.6%[4] Market Performance - Recent fund flows indicate a slight increase in equity fund positions, with stock funds at 93.70% and mixed funds at 92.73%[5] - The average return for flexible allocation funds was 0.49%, while stock ETFs averaged 0.84%[5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, Li'anlong (300596) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the aging agent industry is at a bottoming phase, presenting a good opportunity for investment, while the lubricant additive segment is expected to grow significantly [5][6] - Li'anlong has established itself as a leader in the aging agent industry, with a comprehensive product matrix and a strong global supply chain [5][13] - The company is also expanding into emerging industries such as life sciences and PI materials, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5][18] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Li'anlong is recognized as the leading domestic company in the aging agent sector, with a full range of products including primary and secondary antioxidants, UV absorbers, and hindered amine light stabilizers [13][16] - The company has formed partnerships with major global chemical manufacturers, enhancing its market share [13] Aging Agent Industry - The aging agent market is characterized by a clear bottoming trend, with signs of industry consolidation and capacity exit [5][6] - The demand for aging agents is expected to expand due to steady growth in the polymer materials sector [5][6] Lubricant Additive Industry - The global lubricant additive market is valued at over 100 billion, with significant opportunities for domestic companies to replace foreign suppliers [5][17] - Li'anlong's acquisition of Kangtai has positioned it well to capitalize on the growing demand for lubricant additives [5][17] Core Competitiveness - The company demonstrates strong growth capabilities, management expertise, and effective commercialization strategies [6][7] - Li'anlong's advanced management practices and robust supply chain are key to its sustained growth [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth from 56.87 billion in 2024 to 86.18 billion by 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 4.26 billion to 7.57 billion [5][9] - The expected PE ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are 17, 14, and 11 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [5][9] Investment Recommendation - Given the recovery in the aging agent industry and the growth potential in lubricant additives and life sciences, the report sets a target price of 44.00 yuan for Li'anlong, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9]

Tariff Policy Impact - On September 25, Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on various goods effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs[2] - The estimated total import value of the affected goods in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total[4] Tariff Rate Changes - The effective tariff rate on imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947[3] - Trump's tariffs on China have increased by 54% this year, with 24% currently suspended, while other trading partners with a surplus have seen a minimum 15% increase[3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data includes the September ADP employment numbers and ISM manufacturing PMI, scheduled for release on October 1[5] - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, indicating a downturn, while mortgage rates have decreased, leading to a significant rise in mortgage applications[6][25] Financial Conditions - U.S. financial conditions have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while Eurozone conditions have tightened[7] - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds has widened, indicating increased risk perception in the market[7]

Policy Developments - China aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30%[8] - Australia sets a 2035 emissions reduction target of 62%-70% from 2005 levels, supported by a AUD 5 billion Net Zero Fund[9] - Thailand's tourism board promotes ESG tourism, increasing community income by approximately 20%[10] Industry Highlights - The controversy surrounding Arc'teryx's fireworks display poses potential risks to Anta's stock price and brand reputation, highlighting ESG's shift from a "soft indicator" to a "hard constraint" impacting investor confidence[12][13] - WWF calls for a global green trade incentive mechanism to promote low-carbon development, suggesting that China could enhance its climate governance influence by leading rule-making[14] Capital Market Dynamics - As of September 26, 2025, ESG indices outperformed the market, with the Sci-Tech Innovation ESG index rising by 8.8% and the CSI ESG100 increasing by 1.0%[3][23] - Approximately 64 pure ESG public funds exist, with a total net asset of CNY 35.5 billion, while the largest ESG strategy subcategory comprises 388 funds with net assets of CNY 522.4 billion, accounting for 50.6% of total assets[3][28] - By September 26, 2025, there were 3,650 ESG bonds with a total balance of CNY 56,234 billion, including 146 new issuances worth CNY 119.39 billion in September[4][33] Risk Considerations - Rapid policy changes and uncertainties, insufficient policy implementation, backlash against ESG initiatives, and high costs of green technologies pose risks to the sector[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 8.7 yuan [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.793 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 81.76 million yuan, up 30.18% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 81.67 million yuan, reflecting a 39.35% increase [2][10]. - The pharmaceutical segment continues to show growth, significantly contributing to the overall revenue improvement. The revenue from the pharmaceutical segment reached 999 million yuan, a substantial increase of 57.36% year-on-year, driven by the performance of its subsidiary, Shengli Biological, which generated 321 million yuan, up 28.2% [10]. - The vaccine segment faced slight pressure, with revenue of 450 million yuan, down 7.86% year-on-year. However, the subsidiary Qianyuanhao in the poultry vaccine sector saw a revenue increase of 6.3% [10]. - The animal nutrition segment reported a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a slight decline of 2.31% [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.20% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed signs of stabilization with a gross margin of 15.31%, up 0.18 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The net profit margin improved to 3.19%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year, marking the first positive growth after seven consecutive quarters of decline [10]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 232 million, 295 million, and 350 million yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.23 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.34 yuan [10]. Business Outlook - The livestock and poultry health business is expected to continue improving, supported by a strong profitability cycle in the breeding industry. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement to drive traditional business growth [10]. - New business initiatives, particularly in the pet health sector, are gaining traction with the introduction of new products and brands aimed at end consumers [10]. - The export business is also showing positive growth, benefiting from the synergy of "medicinal materials and seedlings" and successful market expansion efforts [10].

Group 1: Overall Profit Trends - In August, the profit growth of industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 1.5% in July to an increase of 20.4% year-on-year[2] - The revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% in August, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points compared to July[4] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved to 5.83%, up by 0.90 percentage points year-on-year[17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Mining industry profit growth was -23% in August, an improvement from -39.24% in July[22] - Manufacturing industry profit growth reached 26.3% in August, up from 6.63% in July[22] - The downstream manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 36.3% in August, recovering from a decline of 5.2% in July[10] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for upstream manufacturing improved to 12.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year[9] - The gross profit margin for downstream manufacturing was 17.5%, slightly lower by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[10] - The profit margin for the beverage industry surged to 51.2%, with a profit growth rate of 226% in August[10]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 充分释放政策效应——2025年三季度货币政 策委员会例会学习理解 事 项 9 月 26 日，央行发布 2025 年三季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得 如下。 核心观点 1、从表述上，央行删掉了"加力实施增量政策"的表述。并强调"抓好各项 货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应"。结合这一表述，我们仍然维持"货 币政策最宽松的阶段已过"的判断。 2、我们仍然认为当下降息降准刺激信贷的必要性不强。一方面，过去几年信 贷投放均流向生产侧，这反而加大供过于求的失衡程度，需求不足的情境下投 放信贷，实际上物价也很难回升。另一方面，权益市场偏强的背景下，监管部 门天然有抑制杠杆资金入市的诉求，叠加央行例会上"防范资金空转"的表述， 资金利率进一步下行的概率仍然偏低。 3、近期中小银行的行为值得关注。过去一年，中小银行的债券投资规模占其 总体资金运用的规模约为 52%，与之对比，2017 年~2022 年，该指标均值约为 25%左右。特别是 7 月 8 月中小银行的债券投资规模仍然维持高位。结合央行 在例会上"推动中小银行聚焦主责主业"的表述，后续中小银行的债券投资行 为 ...

Traditional Dividend Assets - White appliances' cash flow ratio decreased to 26% in Q2 2025, primarily due to increased allocation of financial assets impacting cash flow space[11] - The cash flow ratio for liquor reached 55% in Q2 2025, with a reduction in the allocation of financial assets compared to previous quarters[19] Cash Flow Improvement Assets - Black appliances' cash flow ratio was 24% in Q2 2025, with capital expenditure reduced to a historical low of 0.7, indicating a potential shift to a new high expenditure cycle[24] - Lighting equipment's cash flow ratio improved to 31% in Q2 2025, as financial asset allocation decreased, allowing cash flow to return to positive[33] - Beauty care's cash flow ratio was 47% in Q2 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure, which fell to a historical low of 1.4[39] Stable Cash Flow Assets - Textile manufacturing maintained a cash flow ratio of 21% in Q2 2025, with stable cash flow generation since 2022[47] - The apparel and home textile sector achieved a cash flow ratio of 52% in Q2 2025, entering a phase of stable cash flow generation due to reduced capital expenditure[51] Assets Under Pressure - Traditional Chinese medicine and beverage sectors are under pressure, with profitability not showing signs of improvement, particularly in the context of centralized procurement affecting traditional Chinese medicine[3] - The non-liquor beverage sector, including beer and wine, continues to face challenges, with profitability remaining under pressure[3]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20250922-20250926） 部分指数依旧看多，后市或先抑后扬 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 0.21%，创业板指单周上涨 1.96%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模 型看多。特征成交量模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型看空，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数涨少跌多，涨幅前五的行业为：电子、有色金属、电力设备及新 能源、电力及公用事业、传媒，跌幅前五的行业为：消费者服务、商贸零售、 轻工制造、纺织服装、食品饮料。从资金流向角度来说，所有行业主力资金净 流出，其中电子、计算机、机械、医药、通信主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 93.70%，相较于上周增加了 31 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 92.73%，相较于上周减少了 36 个 bps。 本周股票型 ETF 平均收益 ...