Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Haiguang Information, with a target price of 177 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to create a "computing power aircraft carrier," enhancing competitiveness across the entire industry chain from chip design to cloud computing services [2][8]. - The merger is the first major asset restructuring case following the revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," indicating strong governmental support for technology enterprises [8]. - Haiguang Information's Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, with a net profit of 506 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. - The combined entity is projected to have a total market value exceeding 400 billion CNY, positioning it as a leading player in the domestic computing power sector [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Haiguang Information are 9.162 billion CNY for 2024, 13.738 billion CNY for 2025, 19.503 billion CNY for 2026, and 26.327 billion CNY for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.4%, 49.9%, 42.0%, and 35.0% respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.931 billion CNY in 2024, 2.902 billion CNY in 2025, 4.219 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.724 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 52.9%, 50.3%, 45.4%, and 35.7% [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 164 in 2024 to 55 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The merger aims to integrate various technological capabilities, enhancing the competitive edge against international giants like NVIDIA [8]. - The company is building a comprehensive ecosystem involving nearly 5,000 partners, covering chip design, system integration, and industry applications, thereby establishing a self-sustaining ecosystem [8]. - The report anticipates that the combined entity will benefit from synergies across the "chip-server-computing service" ecosystem, particularly with the expected surge in AI computing demand [8].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, up from 0.5% in the previous period[2] - The cumulative CPI increase for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024[3] - Food prices showed a cumulative decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 1% in the previous four years[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The cumulative PPI decrease for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, weaker than last year's -0.5%[3] - In the first five months, the prices of production materials, particularly in the mining sector, showed significant weakness, with a cumulative decrease of 8.7% in extraction[5] - Among 32 comparable industries, only 10 showed stronger prices compared to last year, primarily in downstream manufacturing and electric heating sectors[5] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Energy prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting the overall CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total drop[4] - The price of gasoline fell by 3.8%, contributing to a 0.13 percentage point decrease in the CPI[7] - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose from 24% to 29%, indicating a broader inflationary trend[55] - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded from 2.7% to 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the production sector[49]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Haiguang Information, with a target price of 177 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to create a "computing power aircraft carrier," consolidating the entire industry chain from chip design to cloud computing services, potentially exceeding a total market value of 400 billion CNY [2][8]. - The merger is the first major asset restructuring case following the revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," indicating strong governmental support for technology enterprises [8]. - Haiguang Information's Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, with a net profit of 506 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. - The combined entity aims to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic computing power sector, positioning itself as a leading player in the industry [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Haiguang Information are 9.162 billion CNY for 2024, 13.738 billion CNY for 2025, 19.503 billion CNY for 2026, and 26.327 billion CNY for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.4%, 49.9%, 42.0%, and 35.0% respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.931 billion CNY in 2024, 2.902 billion CNY in 2025, 4.219 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.724 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 52.9%, 50.3%, 45.4%, and 35.7% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.83 CNY for 2024, 1.25 CNY for 2025, 1.82 CNY for 2026, and 2.46 CNY for 2027 [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 "β、α"二分法看 5 月出口 ——5 月进出口数据点评 事 项 5 月，中国美元计价出口同比 4.8%，基本符合彭博一致预期 5%，4 月同比 8.1%； 美元计价进口同比-3.4%，弱于彭博一致预期-0.9%，4 月同比-0.2%。 主要观点 ❖ 核心观点：5 月出口整体来看，考虑到前期抢出口以及 5 月上半月高关税的压 力，全月同比 4.8%，并不算低。按照《出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法—— 4 月进出口数据点评》分析框架，5 月贸易数据反映出的或是： 1）对于β风险，通俗来说即美国进口崩盘的风险。目前从美国进口数据来看， 还暂看不出风险的爆发，但是景气前瞻指标和高频都指向美国进口或面临持续 趋弱的压力。 2）对于α风险，即中国市场份额损失风险。目前，①从有关区域占美国进口 比例来看，确实体现一定α风险，但背后可能受到美国抢进口行业结构差异的 影响，程度或还需进一步观察。②本轮美国从泛华圈进口增速快于中国对泛美 圈出口增速，或反映转港不完全的风险（图 8），今年以来，后者仅有前者约一 半。 3）后续从高频来看，6 月整体出口量增速或边际回落，仍具韧性，中国对美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

5 月需求小幅恢复，新能源渗透率续创新高 事项： 乘联会发布数据，5 月狭义乘用车产量 227 万辆，同比+13%，环比+2%； 批发 231 万辆、同比+13%、环比+6%。 评论： 由于电/油车销量变化、自主库销比高于合资，单看库存总量同比情况 相对失真，我们主要观察库销比。按测算，油车库销比 5 月低于去年 同期、电车高于去年同期约 0.5 个月，显示电车库存压力有所提升，已 不如去年健康，未来行业价格主要变动因素将主要为电车。 证券研究报 告 汽车行业重大事项点评 整车：近期板块投资情绪受创，考虑行业增速节奏、市场担忧因素，整车 选股将更倚向结构性机会。推荐理想汽车、江淮汽车，建议关注北汽蓝 谷、上汽集团、小鹏汽车、小米集团。 零部件：1）机器人板块继续推荐拓普集团、豪能股份、冠盛股份、福达 股份、敏实集团。2）高阶智驾下沉放量，建议关注地平线机器人、比亚 迪电子、速腾聚创、亿咖通等。3）推荐主业基本面表现良好的星宇股 份、继峰股份、银轮股份，以及处于相对低位的新泉股份。 风险提示：宏观经济、国内消费低于预期，汽车出口低于预期，新能源车 销量低于预期，原材料价格波动等。 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company has significant advantages in the aerospace and nuclear energy sectors, with low-altitude economy seen as a growth option [7]. - The company is positioned well in the "two machines" (aerospace engines and gas turbines) and "two industries" (nuclear and aviation) sectors, with a strong competitive edge and substantial market potential [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of specialized equipment parts, focusing on high-temperature alloy products, precision cast steel components, and nuclear energy products [14]. - In 2024, high-temperature alloy products and precision cast steel components contributed 59% of revenue and 63% of gross profit, making it the largest business segment [17]. Aerospace Engine Business - The company’s products are recognized by international giants, and it is expected to benefit from an increase in domestic production rates [50]. - The global market for civil aviation engines is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to capture a share of this expanding market [52]. Gas Turbine Business - The company is one of the global suppliers for gas turbines and is expected to benefit from the transition to low-carbon energy and the demand from AI data centers [10]. - In 2024, the company anticipates a 102.8% year-on-year increase in orders for gas turbine products [10]. Nuclear Energy Materials and Components - The domestic nuclear power market has substantial potential, with the company being a pioneer in producing key components for nuclear power plants [10]. - The company supplies nuclear products to 10 of the 31 nuclear units currently under construction in China, achieving over 30% market participation [10]. Convertible Bond Projects - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, with significant portions allocated to enhancing its "two machines" and nuclear energy business value chains [10]. - The projected annual revenue from these projects during the ramp-up phase is estimated to be between 1.036 billion and 1.816 billion yuan, with net profits expected to range from 132 million to 284 million yuan [10]. Low-Altitude Economy - The company is strategically positioned in the low-altitude economy, covering advanced manufacturing to operational services [10]. - It has established a full industrial chain in aviation, including core components, power systems, and complete aircraft manufacturing [10]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 400 million, 530 million, and 740 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 32%, and 39% [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.59, 0.78, and 1.08 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37, 28, and 20 times [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 关税会谈有新变化——政策周观察第 33 期 继 5 月 10 日日内瓦经贸会谈后，近一周中美关税会谈再次出现新的积极变化： （一）总书记同美国总统特朗普通电话。总书记指出，"校正中美关系这艘大 船的航向，需要我们把好舵、定好向"，并"欢迎特朗普再次访华"；特朗普 表示，"美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习"；两 国元首同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽快举行新一轮会谈。 （二）中美经贸磋商机制将举行首次会议。6 月 7 日，外交部发言人宣布：应 英国政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 6 月 8 日至 13 日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 （三）稀土出口管制措施出现变化。6 月 7 日，商务部新闻发言人就中重稀土 出口管制措施答记者问，"已依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合 规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口管制沟通对话"。 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： （一）外交：与日本、韩国、加拿大、欧盟均有互动。1）韩国：6 月 4 日， 总书记向韩国当选总统李在明致贺电，总书记指出，" ...

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a front-line gateway under the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances its geopolitical advantages [7][8] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is positioned to thrive due to favorable external conditions, including rising coal prices and a shift towards resource-based industrial policies [7][8] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang [11] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 105.24, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.66%, while the coal chemical investment index is at 102.1, up 2.72% [14] - The top three performing companies this week include Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (+15.00%), Xinyan Co., Ltd. (+12.50%), and Guanghui Logistics (+9.24%) [14] Key Data Tracking - The report provides key pricing data, indicating that Q5000 mixed coal in Qitai County is priced at 100 yuan/ton, down 16.67% from the previous week, while Q5200 mixed coal in Balikun remains stable at 197 yuan/ton [19] - In April 2025, the coal railway dispatch volume from state-owned key coal mines was 3.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang reached 39.239 million tons, an increase of 8.49% year-on-year [19] Key News and Company Announcements - Xinjiang's railway freight rates have been reduced again, with a maximum decrease of 30%, primarily affecting coal transportation routes from Xinjiang to the southwest [34] - The report mentions significant coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including a 6 million tons/year coal-based methanol project and a 1.5 million tons/year coal-to-oil demonstration project, both of which are progressing [37][41] Overview of Target Companies - The report identifies several companies to watch in the coal chemical sector, including Tebian Electric Apparatus, Baofeng Energy, Guanghui Energy, and Hubei Yihua, which are involved in coal mining and energy conversion [11][12] - Companies providing services to coal chemical projects, such as Xuefeng Technology and Guangdong Hongda, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [12]