Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, with an optimistic outlook for sales recovery in late June and the overall year [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a demand recovery in late June, transitioning into a seasonal peak towards the end of the year due to new product launches and subsidies [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stock selection, suggesting a focus on individual stock characteristics rather than market beta [2][3]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10% [4]. - The new energy vehicle sector showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 380,000 units in May, a year-on-year increase of 15% [4][18]. - The average discount rate in the industry rose to 7.8% in late May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period [4][19]. - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of lithium carbonate was 66,306 CNY per ton, down 37% year-on-year [5][22]. Industry News - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [23]. - The production and sales of automobiles in May were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.6% and 11.2% [23]. - The report highlights the increasing contribution of the equipment manufacturing sector to China's overall export growth, particularly in electric vehicles [23]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.66% this week, ranking 18th out of 29 sectors [7][26]. - The report notes that 78 stocks in the automotive sector rose while 197 fell, indicating a challenging market environment [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices with some support [1][2] - The demand has weakened due to seasonal factors, and steel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term [2] - The overall valuation of the steel sector is low, with potential for profit recovery and valuation improvement if structural industry issues are resolved [10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,208 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,544 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,198 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,623 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,421 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.33%, -0.40%, -0.80%, -0.64%, and -0.87% respectively [1] - The total output of the five major products is 8.5885 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4161 million tons, with a slight decrease of 1,900 tons week-on-week [1] 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.58%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate is 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points week-on-week [1] (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.681 million tons, a decrease of 140,700 tons week-on-week [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate has decreased by 90,600 tons, 19,500 tons, 10,400 tons, 2,700 tons, and 17,500 tons respectively [1] (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.5456 million tons, a decrease of 92,500 tons week-on-week [1] - Social inventory decreased by 35,300 tons to 9.2748 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 57,200 tons to 4.2708 million tons [1] (d) Profitability Situation - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,321 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +135 CNY/ton, +60 CNY/ton, and -65 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +36 CNY/ton, +27 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton [1] - 58.44% of sampled steel enterprises are profitable, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the central bank's efforts to support the bond market, the decline in bond yields has been limited. The large maturity volume of certificates of deposit (CDs) and the relatively high pricing of CDs have restricted the downward space for long - term yields. The short - term yields are also constrained by factors such as the lack of long - term funds, the pressure of CD maturities and tax payment periods, and the limited impact of the expected restart of central bank bond purchases [1][2][10][15]. - By the end of June, the downward space for short - term yields is expected to open up. This is due to the release of cross - quarter pressure on funds, the seasonal increase in bank wealth management bond purchases in July, and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases [27][28][31]. - The bond market strategy is to focus on coupon income and seize trading opportunities in a narrow - fluctuating market. Investors can consider the allocation opportunities of CDs, credit bonds, and interest - rate bonds, and also grasp the trading opportunities of 10 - year treasury bonds within a narrow range [34][35][42]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why Can't the Bullish Bond Market Rise? - **Market Situation**: In June, the central bank showed an attitude of caring for the money market, and large banks increased their purchases of short - term treasury bonds. However, the decline in bond yields was limited. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields declined less than in the previous week. The pricing of CDs remained high, restricting the downward space for long - term yields. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated around 1.65% without a significant breakthrough [1][10][14]. - **Reasons for Limited Short - Term Yield Decline**: - **Lack of Long - Term Funds**: The central bank's operations mainly provided short - term funds, while long - term funds were not sufficient. Since March, MLF has been in a monthly net - investment state, and banks' demand for long - term liabilities has increased [15]. - **Pressure from CD Maturities and Tax Payment Periods**: Since the second week of June, the weekly maturity volume of CDs has exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive weeks. Coupled with the tax payment deadline on the 16th, the pressure on capital gaps is large, and the pressure may ease in the second half of the month [20]. - **Limited Impact of Expected Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Although the market is concerned about the restart of central bank bond purchases, the impact on short - term yields may be limited. The downward range of short - term yields may be between 5 - 10bp [21]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Loosening May Come Later, and Assets Can Be Snatched Now - **Downward Space for Short - Term Yields Expected to Open Up at the End of June**: - **Decline in CD Yields after Cross - Quarter Pressure Release**: With the central bank's care for funds and the possible renewal of MLF at the end of June, funds are expected to cross the quarter smoothly. After the cross - quarter pressure is released, CD yields may decline naturally [27]. - **Increased Bond Purchases by Bank Wealth Management in July**: In July, bank wealth management usually enters a period of rapid scale growth. The net purchases of bank wealth management in the secondary market increase, and they prefer CDs and credit products with a maturity of less than one year, which may open up the downward space for CD yields [27]. - **Potential Restart of Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Since June, large banks have significantly increased their net purchases of short - term treasury bonds. The market expects the central bank to restart bond purchases, which may support the short - term bond market [28][31]. - **Bond Market Strategy: Focus on Coupon Income and Seize Trading Opportunities in a Narrow - Fluctuating Market**: - **Allocation Strategy**: - **CDs**: From the end of June to July, the probability of success is high. Investors can pay attention to the allocation opportunities brought by the current price increase. CDs with a yield of around 1.7% have high allocation value [34]. - **Credit Bonds**: Focus on credit - sinking opportunities within 3 years and the opportunity for a slight compression of 4 - 5 - year credit spreads in July [35]. - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: In a narrow - fluctuating market, focus on the exploration of α - type bonds, such as 5 - 7 - year old interest - rate bonds. If the short - term yields decline, the α - compression market of medium - term bonds may be better [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 10 - year treasury bond is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.7%. Traders can consider entering the market when the bond market fluctuates and the long - term interest rate adjusts. When the yield approaches 1.62%, partial profit - taking is recommended [42]. 3.3 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market: Loose Funds and Expectations of Repurchase with Ownership Transfer Lead to a Bull - Flat Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's OMO continued to have a net withdrawal, but the money market was in a balanced and loose state. The weighted average price of DR001 dropped to around 1.36%, and the 1 - year CD issuance price of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased from 1.7% to around 1.66% [9][60]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased, while the net financing of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased [55]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spread of treasury bonds narrowed, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds widened. The short - term yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the long - term yields of treasury bonds decreased while those of China Development Bank bonds increased [52].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Broad-based Index Heat Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices to construct a rotation strategy. The idea is to buy the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, or stay in cash if the "Others" group has the highest rate[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the total heat of constituent stocks for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Others") by summing up their individual heat indicators[8][11]. 2. Compute the weekly heat change rate for each group and smooth it using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[11][13]. 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest heat change rate (MA2). If the "Others" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a reasonable annualized return and manageable drawdown, indicating its potential effectiveness in capturing short-term market sentiment[16]. Model Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Heat Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 8.74% (since 2017)[16] - Maximum Drawdown: 23.5%[16] - 2025 YTD Return: 10.1%[16] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the market total, to serve as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. For each stock, calculate the sum of browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks[7]. 2. Normalize the value as a percentage of the total market activity for the same day[7]. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to scale the indicator within the range [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and is used as a proxy for emotional intensity in broader market or sector-level analysis[7]. - **Factor Name**: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average, to identify trends in market sentiment[11][13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock or group[11]. 2. Apply a 2-week moving average (MA2) to smooth the weekly change rate[11][13]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The smoothed heat change rate provides a stable and actionable signal for rotation strategies and sentiment analysis[13]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Heat Indicator**: - Range: [0, 10,000][7] - **Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2)**: - CSI 300: +7.76% (highest among broad-based indices for the week)[16] - "Others" Group: -3% (lowest among broad-based indices for the week)[16] - **Concept Heat TOP/BOTTOM Portfolios**: - BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return: 15.71%[33] - BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown: 28.89%[33] - 2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio: 21.1%[33]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for A-share market timing, such as "Volume Model," "Low Volatility Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart CSI 300 Model," "Smart CSI 500 Model," "Limit-Up/Down Model," "Calendar Effect Model," "Long-Term Momentum Model," "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model," and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model"[1][10][11][12][13] - The report also includes a Hong Kong market timing model, specifically the "Turnover Inverse Volatility Model"[14][73] - The construction of these models is based on principles such as price-volume relationships, acceleration and trend analysis, momentum, limit-up/down patterns, and calendar effects. The models are designed to cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term cycles, forming a multi-strategy system[8][10][11] - The report evaluates the models qualitatively, stating that timing strategies should be simple and universal, emphasizing the importance of coupling signals from different models or cycles to achieve a balance between offensive and defensive strategies[8][10][11] - The latest signals from the models indicate mixed results: some models are bullish (e.g., Volume Model, Feature Volume Model, Limit-Up/Down Model, Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model, Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model), while others are neutral or bearish (e.g., Low Volatility Model, Feature Institutional Model, Smart CSI 300 Model, Smart CSI 500 Model)[10][11][12][13] - Backtesting results for specific models or factors are not explicitly detailed in the report, but the report mentions that the "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are bullish overall[13][72] - The Hong Kong market model, "Turnover Inverse Volatility Model," continues to show bullish signals for the Hang Seng Index[14][73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 2.07% this week, outperforming the broader market by 2.33 percentage points. Individual stocks such as Taiping (+10.36%) and ZhongAn (+4.57%) saw significant gains [1]. - The new insurance contract accounting standards are set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, with some companies allowed to defer compliance if they provide justification by June 30, 2025. This transition is expected to benefit the industry by allowing better management of financial reporting during the changeover [4][5]. - The report highlights that the implementation of new accounting standards has increased the volatility of listed insurance companies' performance, primarily due to fluctuations in financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's total market capitalization is approximately 30,425.11 billion, with a circulating market value of 21,038.53 billion [6]. - The absolute performance over the last 12 months is 41.6%, with a relative performance of 32.0% compared to the benchmark [7]. Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notification on June 12 regarding the implementation of new insurance contract accounting standards [2]. - China Pacific Insurance received approval for its chairman's qualification from the financial regulatory authority [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on FVOCI asset allocation to mitigate the impact of stock market fluctuations on performance, especially for mid-sized insurance companies [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for major companies are provided, with China Ping An rated as a "Strong Buy" and others like China Pacific Insurance and China Life rated as "Recommended" [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 39.7 yuan [2]. Core Views - The company has shown stable operations, with key executives completing share buybacks totaling 6.1774 million yuan since the announcement of the buyback plan on March 29, 2025. The controlling shareholder is also in the process of increasing its stake by no less than 50 million yuan [2]. - The core business, Nanfu batteries, continues to contribute significantly to revenue growth, maintaining a leading position in the domestic alkaline battery market with a market share exceeding 80% for its 5 and 7 alkaline batteries. The company is also expanding its production capacity for overseas markets, which is expected to alleviate capacity constraints and support growth [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 10.01% year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 49.22%, slightly down from the previous year due to an increase in export sales [8]. - The company is actively pursuing overseas market expansion and plans to increase its equity stake in Nanfu batteries, which could significantly enhance its performance if the stake rises from the current 26% to a higher level [8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 4,638 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 7.4% in 2024, 16.1% in 2025, 14.0% in 2026, and 10.9% in 2027 [4]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 168 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.2% in 2024, 15.8% in 2025, 16.6% in 2026, and 9.0% in 2027 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.80 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.17 yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 36 in 2024 to 24 in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Views - The company is facing challenges but is actively adjusting its strategies. The management has acknowledged past operational shortcomings and is focused on enhancing its business model and market positioning [6][7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of returning to the essence of consumer goods, value creation, and rational development in the white liquor industry, despite short-term pressures [6][7]. - The company plans to strengthen its competitive advantages across different price segments and is launching various promotional activities to boost brand visibility and sales [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28,876 million, with a year-on-year decline of 12.8%. The revenue is expected to further decline to 23,409 million in 2025, before recovering to 24,586 million in 2026 and 26,416 million in 2027 [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6,673 million in 2024, down 33.4% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [2][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 4.43 yuan for 2024, decreasing to 3.71 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 4.08 yuan in 2026 and 4.64 yuan in 2027 [2][11]. Market Performance - The company has seen a 10% reduction in overall inventory in the first half of the year, with some regions experiencing inventory declines of over 30% [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings, including the launch of new products in the light bottle liquor segment, which is expected to become a significant revenue contributor [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a quota system to stabilize market order and is actively managing supply and demand to mitigate price fluctuations [6][7]. - There is a strong emphasis on optimizing marketing expenditures and improving the efficiency of promotional investments, with a shift towards more targeted spending [6][7].

Group 1: External Demand Exposure and Profit Elasticity - The external demand exposure of industrial revenue is estimated to be around 16.2%[3] - A 1% change in exports is expected to result in a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits[4] - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption growth is 0.54%, while to capital formation growth it is 0.70%[2] Group 2: Policy Implications and Required Adjustments - To offset a 1% decline in exports, a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth is needed[2] - The policy direction emphasizes boosting service consumption and removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector[2] - Investment policies focus on enhancing construction projects and urban renewal actions[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco[6] - The computer communication and electrical machinery sectors have significant external demand exposure and profit elasticity[6] - The construction chain industries show high elasticity to capital formation, indicating potential benefits from increased investment[6]