Group 1 - The core strategy focuses on high free cash flow return rates combined with low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders [3][4] - The selection criteria for individual stocks include: annual free cash flow return rate greater than the 80th percentile of the market, average dividend and buyback ratio over the past three years exceeding the 70th percentile, average capital expenditure ratio over the past five years below the 30th percentile, average net working capital increase ratio over the past five years below the 50th percentile, and the latest annual ROE change compared to the five-year peak greater than -20% [4][6] - The equal-weighted portfolio has outperformed the market in 9 out of the last 11 years, with an annualized return of 16.4% compared to 8.0% for the market index [4][6] Group 2 - The updated stock composition based on the 2024 annual report includes 37 stocks, with significant representation from sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, and electric power [8][11] - The industry weight distribution shows a current reallocation towards machinery and pharmaceuticals, each close to 20%, while electric power and food & beverage sectors have increased to 8% [10][11] Group 3 - The cash flow performance of Jiangsu Electric Power indicates a controlled capital expenditure with a CAPEX/D&A ratio below 1, despite increased capital spending due to new projects [14] - Midea Group has maintained stable capital expenditure levels, but significant changes in financial asset allocations have impacted free cash flow, with a FCFF/EBITDA ratio of 41% in Q1 2025 [17] - Wuliangye's capital expenditure remains high, but its strong profitability keeps the CAPEX/EBITDA ratio at 6%, with a FCFF/EBITDA ratio of 116% in Q1 2025, indicating robust shareholder return capabilities [20]

证 券 研 究 报 告 小家电行业跟踪报告 推荐（维持） 国补刺激加码，Q2 拐点可期 风险提示：政策刺激不及预期，内需修复不及预期，新品推新不及预期。 行业研究 家电 2025 年 05 月 23 日 $$\frac{1}{4}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{E}(\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{E})$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨家琛 邮箱：yangjiachen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070005 证券分析师：牛俣航 邮箱：niuyuhang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 19,352.40 | 1.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 17,344.64 | 2.18 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 15.3% | | 相对表现 | 3.9% ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.66 CNY based on a 30x PE for 2025 [1][10]. Core Views - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its domestic and international market channels through both organic growth and acquisitions. It has established overseas channels in Asia, Africa, and Europe, and has formed a strategic partnership with HaiXing Electric Power to accelerate its global market penetration [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on power distribution equipment for 20 years, with a rich product portfolio and continuous growth. It was established in 2004 and has evolved from producing low and high voltage switchgear to developing transformer products and entering the EPC field through acquisitions [6][13]. Domestic Market - The company is benefiting from increased investment in the power grid and is expanding its domestic market channels through both organic growth and acquisitions. It has won multiple tenders in various provinces and has acquired assets to enhance its market presence [6][39]. International Market - The company has made significant inroads into international markets, securing contracts in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. It has established various channels for overseas expansion and has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with HaiXing Electric Power to leverage its overseas market advantages [6][9][10]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.595 billion CNY, 1.902 billion CNY, and 2.246 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 79 million CNY, 100 million CNY, and 138 million CNY [2][10]. Profitability and Growth - The company has shown a strong growth trajectory with a revenue CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024. The gross margin for transformers improved in 2024 due to cost savings from in-house processing and direct sales to international clients [26][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, down 31.07% year-on-year, and a net loss of 124 million yuan [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued to experience revenue decline, achieving 402 million yuan, a decrease of 10.40% year-on-year, with a net loss of 45 million yuan [2][4]. - The carbon fiber industry is facing a temporary supply-demand imbalance, leading to price pressures on the company's products, which has resulted in a contraction of profit margins [4][8]. - The company is accelerating its product structure upgrade and diversifying applications, particularly in high-performance carbon fiber for aerospace, hydrogen storage, and unmanned aerial vehicles [4][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company’s total revenue is projected to be 1.557 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -31.1%. The net profit is expected to be -124 million yuan, reflecting a -139.1% change [4][9]. - The forecast for 2025 shows a recovery in revenue to 1.944 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.8%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround [4][9]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 14.25%, down 16.36 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin is projected at -7.99%, a decrease of 22.06 percentage points [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its production capabilities with a new facility in Lianyungang, which will utilize advanced fourth-generation carbon fiber technology, aiming to increase its market share in high-performance applications [4][8]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its product adaptability and deepening customer relationships in sectors such as wind energy, photovoltaic thermal fields, and automotive lightweighting [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, down 31.07% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -124 million yuan, marking a shift to a loss [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued to experience revenue decline, achieving 402 million yuan, a decrease of 10.40% year-on-year, with a net loss of 45 million yuan [2][4]. - The carbon fiber industry is facing a temporary supply-demand imbalance, leading to price pressures and reduced profitability for the company [4][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to recover to 1.944 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 24.8%, and further increase to 3.398 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.9% [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 65 million yuan, and continue to grow to 251 million yuan by 2027 [4][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decline to 14.25% in 2024, down 16.36 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of -7.99% [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is advancing its product structure upgrade and diversifying applications, particularly in high-performance carbon fiber for aerospace, hydrogen storage, and unmanned aerial vehicles [4][8]. - The construction of a new facility in Lianyungang, with a planned capacity of 31,000 tons, aims to leverage advanced carbon fiber technology and enhance production capabilities [4][8]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its product adaptability and deepening customer relationships in various sectors, including wind energy, photovoltaic thermal fields, and automotive lightweighting [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.8 CNY per share [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 20.055 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million CNY, up 15.2% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.16 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.3% year-on-year to 150 million CNY [1][3]. - The wind power blade segment showed significant growth, with revenue of 8.2 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and sales volume reaching 21.22 GW, up 33.54% [7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 20.055 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 14.4% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to 760 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 70.9% [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.92 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [3][8]. Business Performance - The automotive parts business in Germany achieved profitability, with revenue reaching 7.101 billion CNY, marking a historical high [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Vietnam and has successfully ramped up production in several new facilities [7]. - The rail transit segment achieved a record revenue of 2.355 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.60% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On May 22, 2025, most convertible bond industries declined, and the valuation contracted on a month - on - month basis. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, and the overall market showed a situation where large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.32% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.72%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.96%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.08% [1]. - **Market Style**: Large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks decreased by 0.49%, large - cap value stocks increased by 0.54%, mid - cap growth stocks decreased by 0.91%, mid - cap value stocks decreased by 0.67%, small - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.05%, and small - cap value stocks decreased by 0.97% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 50.322 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82%. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.139705 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.15%. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 25.263 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond increased by 0.86bp to 1.72% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.07 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 157.17 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 110.32 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 120.37 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 23.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9pct. The range with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 37.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9pct. There were 10 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 120.60 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The valuation contracted. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 22.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35pct. The overall weighted par value was 89.74 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 4.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 89.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33pct [2]. Industry Performance - **Stock Market**: In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were Beauty Care (-2.03%), Social Services (-1.80%), and Basic Chemicals (-1.70%); the top three industries with the largest increases were Banks (+1.00%), Media (+0.12%), and Household Appliances (+0.04%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: A total of 24 industries in the convertible bond market declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were Utilities (-1.15%), Household Appliances (-1.11%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (-1.07%); the top three industries with the largest increases were Banks (+0.56%), Media (+0.37%), and Building Decoration (+0.23%) [3]. - **Key Indicators of Different Industry Types**: - Closing price: The large - cycle decreased by 0.59%, manufacturing decreased by 0.81%, technology decreased by 0.40%, large - scale consumption decreased by 0.86%, and large - scale finance increased by 0.07% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle increased by 1.0pct, manufacturing increased by 1.2pct, technology increased by 0.25pct, large - scale consumption increased by 1.0pct, and large - scale finance increased by 0.68pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle decreased by 1.21%, manufacturing decreased by 1.48%, technology decreased by 0.51%, large - scale consumption decreased by 1.68%, and large - scale finance increased by 0.51% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle decreased by 0.76pct, manufacturing decreased by 1.0pct, technology decreased by 0.55pct, large - scale consumption decreased by 1.0pct, and large - scale finance increased by 0.069pct [4]. Industry Rotation - The banking, media, and household appliance industries led the rise. The banking industry had a daily increase of 1.00% in the stock market and 0.56% in the convertible bond market; the media industry had a daily increase of 0.12% in the stock market and 0.37% in the convertible bond market; the household appliance industry had a daily increase of 0.04% in the stock market and a decrease of 1.11% in the convertible bond market [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) with a target price of 29.79 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 35.392 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.207 billion CNY, up 28.56% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items surged by 125.86% to 263 million CNY [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.055 billion CNY, a 20.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion CNY, reflecting a 45.55% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The company's power battery business accounted for over 70% of total revenue in 2024, with a global installed capacity growth of 73.8% and a market share of 3.2%, ranking eighth globally [8]. - The energy storage business generated revenue of 7.832 billion CNY in 2024, representing 22.13% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [8]. - The company is expanding its international presence and production capacity, establishing strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers like Volkswagen [8]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 1 CNY per 10 shares distributed, totaling 179 million CNY, and a share buyback amounting to 300 million CNY [8]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 43.023 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.358 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 12.5% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.75 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 [4][9]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 161.8% and an asset-liability ratio of 72.3% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) with a target price of 29.79 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - Guoxuan High-Tech reported significant revenue growth of 11.98% year-on-year, reaching 35.39 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 1.21 billion CNY, up 28.56% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company’s first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 20.61% year-on-year, totaling 9.06 billion CNY, and a net profit of 101 million CNY, up 45.55% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company’s power battery business accounted for over 70% of total revenue, with a global installed capacity growth of 73.8% year-on-year, ranking eighth in market share [8]. - The energy storage business generated 7.83 billion CNY in revenue, representing 22.13% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [8]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with international automakers like Volkswagen to enhance its global market competitiveness [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Guoxuan High-Tech are 43.02 billion CNY in 2025, 52.45 billion CNY in 2026, and 64.93 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.6%, 21.9%, and 23.8% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to reach 1.36 billion CNY in 2025, 1.79 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.66 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 12.5%, 31.8%, and 48.5% respectively [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.75 CNY in 2025, 0.99 CNY in 2026, and 1.47 CNY in 2027 [4][9]. Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a cash dividend policy, distributing 1 CNY per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 179 million CNY, which represents 14.82% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8]. - Guoxuan High-Tech has also repurchased shares worth 300 million CNY, enhancing shareholder returns [8].

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In April, general fiscal revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.7% in March[2] - General fiscal expenditure rose by 12.9% year-on-year in April, up from 10.1% in March[2] - From January to April, tax revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, while land sales revenue fell by 11.4%[3] Group 2: Debt Issuance Insights - The government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan from last year[3] - As of May 20, net financing reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year[3] - The cumulative net financing of government bonds has increased by 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the expected annual increase of 2.2 trillion yuan[4] Group 3: Investment and Spending Trends - Non-deficit bonds are catching up in issuance, indicating a shift towards investment support in fiscal policy[7] - Infrastructure spending showed a significant increase in April, with urban community spending rising by 6.8% and transportation spending by 10.6%[8] - The progress of fiscal spending from January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a completion rate of 31.5% of the budget[54] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Tax revenue growth turned positive in April at 1.9%, while non-tax revenue hit a new low for 2024[34] - The growth in government fund income was driven by a recovery in land sales revenue, which increased by 4.3% in April[64] - The expenditure growth rate for government funds surged to 44.7% in April, significantly up from 27.9% in March[64]