1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - beginning deposit outflows and pre - season end asset allocation by wealth management products limit the pricing restoration of certificates of deposit (CDs). The supply side may still have demand due to potential deposit losses and large CD maturities from November to December. The demand side is restricted by the "front - running" of wealth management products. However, with the central bank's supportive operations, liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in the fourth quarter, which may protect against CD yield increases. If policy rates remain unchanged, 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs may fluctuate in a narrow range around 1.65% [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: Net financing is slightly negative, and the term structure is compressed - In the past two weeks (September 29 - October 12), the CD issuance scale was 25.456 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 4.923 billion yuan (compared to - 18.879 billion yuan from September 22 - September 28). The proportion of state - owned banks' issuance decreased from 38% to 6%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 25% to 46%. The proportion of 1 - year CD issuance dropped from 29% to 8%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 5.20 months (from 7.16 months). Next week (October 13 - October 19), the maturity scale will increase to 50.487 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 20.108 billion yuan [2][5]. 3.2 Demand: Money market funds are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate has declined overall - In the secondary market, money market funds and other products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 53.756 billion yuan and 26.527 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 136.865 billion yuan to 60.859 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 82% [2]. 3.3 Valuation: The primary - market CD pricing has slightly decreased, and the secondary - market yields have declined - The weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs slightly dropped to around 1.66%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 17bp, while the 3 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year varieties decreased by 3bp, and the 6 - month variety decreased by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 15% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.14BP to 11.43BP, at around the 17% quantile, while that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.21BP to 6.00BP, close to the 7% quantile. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally declined, with the 1 - month variety down 17bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year down 2bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month down 3bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 24% historical quantile [2][15]. 3.4 Comparison: The post - quarter - end CD restoration is relatively limited - After the quarter - end, the CD restoration was relatively limited, and the spread between medium - short - term notes and CDs significantly compressed. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 narrowed from 17.72BP to 14.37BP; the spread with R007:15DMA narrowed from 14.34BP to 7.21BP. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 30.25BP to 28.84BP, with the quantile dropping to around 13%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 6.31BP to 4.52BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. Additionally, the spread between AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 12.83BP to 7.89BP, and the quantile dropped to 36% [2][29].

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-emergence of US-China trade tensions since October, with key areas of focus including shipping port fees, semiconductors, rare earths, and tariffs. The market response has seen initial pullbacks in risk assets and a rise in safe-haven asset trading [2][10][12] - The report identifies five key differences between the current trade tensions and those from April, including a shift from generalized to targeted measures, the active role of China in leveraging its strengths, a transition from multi-front to single-front US strategies, resilience in both economies, and greater monetary and fiscal space for both parties [10][19][20] Group 2 - The impact of trade tensions on the market is expected to be limited in terms of fundamental economic effects, primarily affecting risk appetite in the short term. The report suggests that the current market may reflect profit-taking behavior following a six-month rise in global risk assets, predicting that the magnitude and duration of the pullback will be less severe than in April [3][35][41] - The report emphasizes the necessity for structural rebalancing in the market, indicating that the current industry differentiation has reached a significant level, with leading sectors showing an average increase of 51% since April, while lagging sectors have seen no growth [5][11][17] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on two main investment opportunities post-rebalancing: the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI applications and quantum computing, and cyclical sectors with tight supply conditions, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][11][12] - It notes that the trade tensions will not alter the fundamental recovery and bull market dynamics, which are shifting from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven, suggesting that adjustments in the market present opportunities for strategic asset allocation [6][11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the automotive industry, focusing on robots and liquid cooling as the main investment themes for Q4 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector continues to show strong fundamentals in Q4, with a focus on investment opportunities in robots and liquid cooling technologies. The report suggests that while the market is currently experiencing adjustments, it presents new opportunities for investment. Key catalysts to watch include Tesla's product iterations, North American giants' market entries, and domestic industry subsidies [1][5]. Data Tracking - The discount rate in the automotive industry increased to 10.1% in late September, up by 0.5 percentage points from early September and up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The average discount amount reached 22,824 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,332 yuan [3]. - Key brands with significant discount rate changes include Brilliance BMW (+5.0PP), Ora (+4.3PP), and SAIC Passenger Cars (+1.6PP) [3]. Industry News - The report highlights that automotive dealers are facing significant financial challenges, with many experiencing cash flow deficits and risks of bankruptcy due to high inventory levels and aggressive pricing strategies [30]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced adjustments to the technical requirements for new energy vehicles, which may impact the market dynamics for electric and hybrid vehicles [30]. - In September, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.5 million units, marking a 22% year-on-year increase and a 16% month-on-month increase [30]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 1.47% this week, ranking 24th out of 29 sectors. The overall market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37% [8][33]. - The report notes that the average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector is currently at 35 [33].

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, such as short-term, mid-term, and long-term models, which are integrated into a multi-cycle, multi-strategy system[11][13][68] - Short-term models include the volume model (neutral for most broad-based indices), low volatility model (neutral), institutional feature model (bullish), feature volume model (bearish), and intelligent algorithm models for CSI 300 (bearish) and CSI 500 (neutral)[13][68][76] - Mid-term models include the limit-up-and-down model (neutral) and calendar effect model (neutral)[14][69] - Long-term models include the momentum model, which is bullish[15][70] - Comprehensive models such as the A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 model and the A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 model are bearish[16][71] - For Hong Kong stocks, the mid-term turnover inverse volatility model is bearish[17][72] Model Backtesting Results - The short-term institutional feature model is bullish for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, while the feature volume model is bearish for CSI 300[13][68] - The long-term momentum model shows bullish signals across broad-based indices[15][70] - Comprehensive models indicate bearish signals for CSI 2000 and other indices[16][71] - The turnover inverse volatility model for Hong Kong stocks has turned bearish[17][72]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20251009-20251010） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，中证 500 下跌 0.19%，中证 1000 下跌 0.54%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 16.15%，相对于上周下跌了 1.54%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 19.98%，相对于上周下跌了 5.13%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 20.93%，相对于上周下跌了 4.16%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.61%，相 对于上周下跌了 1.67%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 19 日到 2025 年 9 月 25 日正 面信号共出现了 3059 次，未来高点平均胜率为 46.09%，负面信号出现 3051 次，未来低点平均胜率为 52.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，创业板指、上证 50、中证 800、万得微盘股指数、中证 500、沪深 300、恒生金融类、恒生香港 35、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生 等权重、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chaoyun Group (06601.HK) with a target price of HKD 3.03 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 1.34 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 174 million, down 3.3% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 49.3%, up 2.9 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased to 12.8%, down 1.3 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the company's solid foundation in pesticide products and the synergistic growth driven by multiple product categories [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: HKD 1.82 billion - 2025: HKD 2.02 billion - 2026: HKD 2.21 billion - 2027: HKD 2.38 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 12.6% for 2024, 11.0% for 2025, 9.5% for 2026, and 7.6% for 2027 [3][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024: HKD 203 million - 2025: HKD 218 million - 2026: HKD 243 million - 2027: HKD 274 million - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 12.1% [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three main strategies to maintain profitability: 1. Significant scale effects from core products, optimizing production processes to reduce unit costs. 2. Increasing the proportion of high-margin new products, such as pet care and high-end cleaning products, to enhance overall gross margin structure. 3. Long-term partnerships in the supply chain and digital management to secure key raw material supplies, ensuring cost control [7]. - The multi-brand and multi-category strategy is deepening, with traditional brands like "Chao Wei" consolidating their market position while new brands like "Beibeijian" and "Jueqiang de Weiba" are rapidly penetrating niche markets [7]. Market Positioning - The report emphasizes that Chaoyun Group is a leading home care group in China, with a solid foundation in traditional categories and significant progress in new brands and markets [7]. - The company's collaborative effect from its "multi-brand + multi-category + omni-channel" strategy is expected to become more evident as consumer upgrades and segmented market demands continue to be released [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) New products in the medical beauty sector, emphasizing the importance of product lifecycle and the potential of rare new products for growth and stability. Companies to watch include Qihuang Pharmaceutical and Lepu Medical [3]. 2) The rise of operational agencies, particularly those leveraging AI technology, with a focus on companies like Yiwang Yichuang and Qingmu Technology [3]. 3) The cosmetics sector, recommending attention to companies such as Shiseido, Maogeping, and Proya, which have strong brand matrices and growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of stocks in the industry is 104, with a total market value of 948.33 billion and a circulating market value of 885.12 billion [6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Proya: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 4.6, 2026E: 5.1, 2027E: 5.6 - PE ratios: 2025E: 17.5, 2026E: 15.9, 2027E: 14.5 - PB ratio: 4.7 - Rating: Recommended [5] - Juzi Biological: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 2.3, 2026E: 2.8, 2027E: 3.4 - PE ratios: 2025E: 20.9, 2026E: 17.4, 2027E: 14.3 - PB ratio: 6.5 - Rating: Recommended [5] - Maogeping: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 2.4, 2026E: 3.1, 2027E: 4.0 - PE ratios: 2025E: 37.4, 2026E: 29.1, 2027E: 23.0 - PB ratio: 9.7 - Rating: Strongly Recommended [5]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month is -4.9%, 6 months is +10.4%, and 12 months is +32.4%. The relative performance shows a decline of -8.7% over 1 month, -13.2% over 6 months, and an increase of +16.9% over 12 months [7]. Upcoming Promotions - The report discusses the upcoming Double 11 promotions, highlighting changes in discount strategies across platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD, with Tmall extending its promotional period to 31 days and implementing a direct discount strategy [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][70]. Core Insights - In the first eight months of 2025, China's total vehicle exports reached 4.26 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, but the export volume now accounts for approximately 20.2% of China's total vehicle wholesale [2][10]. - The export of new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 35% of total vehicle exports, with 1.51 million NEVs exported in the same period, significantly up from 22% in 2024 [2][9]. - Major contributors to the export growth include Chery, BYD, and SAIC, with Chery exporting 800,000 units (19% share) and BYD exporting 630,000 units (15% share), marking a substantial increase from previous years [9][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Export Performance - China's total vehicle exports in the first eight months of 2025 reached 4.26 million units, up 13% year-on-year, with a monthly export volume consistently above 500,000 units since March 2025, peaking over 600,000 units in August [2][10]. - The share of vehicle exports in total vehicle wholesale has increased by approximately 1.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. Breakdown by Structure - In terms of vehicle type, commercial vehicles accounted for 15% of exports, while passenger vehicles made up 85%, showing little change from 2024 [9]. - The NEV export volume reached 1.51 million units, with a notable increase in market penetration, particularly driven by domestic manufacturers like BYD [9][10]. Breakdown by Brand - Chery led the exports with 800,000 units, followed by BYD with 630,000 units, and SAIC with 330,000 units. The rankings reflect a significant rise in BYD's market share from 7% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [9][10]. Breakdown by Region - Mexico was the largest market for Chinese vehicle exports, receiving 360,000 units, followed by the UAE and Belgium with 320,000 and 290,000 units, respectively [9][10]. - The share of Chinese vehicles in overseas markets has increased from approximately 2% in 2020 to 9.4% in the first eight months of 2025 [9][10]. Export Value - The export value of complete vehicles and auto parts reached $84.29 billion and $64.46 billion, respectively, accounting for 3.4% and 2.6% of China's total exports [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that all three major indices have experienced five consecutive months of gains, with the ChiNext 50 index rising by 59.45% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.73% in Q3 2025 [1][9][10] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors reported negative returns, with the telecommunications sector up by 50.20% and the electronics sector up by 44.49% [1][11] - The report highlights that the timing models for Q3 2025 generally achieved absolute positive returns, although it was challenging to outperform the benchmark itself [1][5] Group 2 - The report suggests a positive outlook for Q4 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, telecommunications, and comprehensive sectors [2] - The report emphasizes the development of various effective strategies based on historical timing, industry rotation, and stock selection models [5][6] - The report outlines the performance of different types of funds, noting that equity mixed funds had the best average return of 25.83% during a period of rising market indices [13]