证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 港股自由现金流行业比较 策略研究 ——自由现金流资产系列 11 ❖ 港股自由现金流回报领先行业：煤炭、工用运输、主要零售商、石油天然 气、电讯。最直接的比较资产的自由现金流性价比，即对比恒生二级非金融 行业近 10 年平均的自由现金流回报率（FCFF/MV）来看，领先且 2024 截面 为正行业分别为煤炭 17%、工用运输 14%、主要零售商 11%、石油天然气 10%、电讯 10%，基本为消费&服务&资源类行业，其创造的自由现金流体量 相对于市值水平来说性价比显著；而相对现金流回报最靠后的行业包括农 业、半导体、医疗设备服务、媒体娱乐、贵金属、药品生物科技，其平均自 由现金流回报为负，表明行业整体基本未实现现金流创造，投资逻辑主要为 EPS 弹性。 ❖ 从自由现金流相关基本面数据来看： 1）资本开支比例（CAPEX/EBITDA）：近 10年平均为主要零售商 31%、纺服 32%、软件服务 33%、专业零售 38%、家电 39%、煤炭 39%比例较低； 2）净营运资本变化比例：近 10 年平均较低的为农业、地产、汽车、旅游消 闲设施； 3）自由现金流比例：近 10 年平均相对领 ...

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公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中天科技（600522）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 25 年海风景气向好，能源业务出海可期 目标价：15.6 元 事项： 公司发布 24 年年度报告及 25 年一季度报告。2024 年报告期，公司实现营业 收入 480.55 亿元，同比+6.63%；归母净利润为 28.38 亿元，同比-8.94%；扣非 归母净利润 25.45 亿元，同比-4.78%。25Q1 报告期，公司实现营业收入 97.56 亿元，同比+18.37%；归母净利润 6.28 亿元，同比-1.33%；扣非归母净利润 5.97 亿元，同比+20.45%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 48,055 | 57,514 | 59,521 | 61,945 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.6% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,838 | 3, ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 14.1 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of recovery with a significant increase in revenue in Q1 2025, achieving 77.04 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51.78% [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic offshore and onshore order deliveries, leading to a recovery in manufacturing profitability [7][8]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.71 CNY, 0.94 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 11, and 9 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 271.58 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.43% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.46 billion CNY, down 8.12% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s revenue from wind turbine and accessory business in 2024 was 208.33 billion CNY, a decline of 12.4% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 10.82 GW, an increase of 11.66% year-on-year [7][8]. - The gross margin for the manufacturing segment in 2024 was -0.46%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.61 percentage points [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to approximately 42.22 GW, with over 3 GW being international orders, indicating strong future revenue potential [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the manufacturing profitability will turn positive as the average bidding price stabilizes and increases, particularly with the contribution from high-margin overseas orders [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - On May 23, the issuance of the first 50 - year ultra - long special treasury bond "25 Special Treasury Bond 03" this year had a weighted winning bid yield of 2.1%, 7.5BP higher than the 50 - year treasury bond's maturity yield on May 22, indicating weak institutional demand for ultra - long bonds and causing a general callback in bond yields [1][10]. - Insurance companies are the main net buyers of 50Y treasury bonds in the secondary market, with a net buying scale proportion of nearly 98% since 2022. Their net buying is mainly new bonds, but the new bond承接比例 has declined since 2024 [2][15]. - The slowdown in premium growth and the off - season for bond allocation may lead to weak demand for subscribing to new 50Y treasury bonds [4][23]. - In 2025, the issuance progress of ultra - long special treasury bonds is faster than last year, with 1.3 trillion scheduled to be issued from April to October. The issuance peak is expected from May to September, and the issuance of ultra - long ordinary treasury bonds will resume in November after the special ones finish in October [5][27][30]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Today 50Y Treasury Bond Issuance Rate Higher than Secondary - On May 23, "25 Special Treasury Bond 03" completed the issuance tender with a weighted winning bid yield of 2.1%, 7.5BP higher than the 50 - year treasury bond's maturity yield on May 22. After the tender result was announced, bond yields generally回调, with the yield of the 30y treasury bond's active bond rising nearly 1BP [1][10]. 2. Who Buys Ultra - Long - Term Treasury Bonds? - Insurance companies are the main net buyers in the secondary market, with a net buying scale proportion of nearly 98% since 2022. They mainly buy new bonds, with new and old bonds accounting for 74% and 26% respectively since 2022 [2][15][19]. - In months with large 50Y treasury bond issuances, insurance net buying increases significantly. The average monthly net buying in issuance and non - issuance months since 2022 is 109 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan respectively. However, in 2025, the new bond承接比例 has decreased, indicating weakened demand [3][19]. - The slowdown in insurance premium growth (2025 Q1 insurance personal insurance premium income had a year - on - year growth of only 0.2%, much lower than 2023 - 2024) and the off - season for bond allocation (May is the low point in the second - quarter net buying) may lead to weak demand for new 50Y treasury bonds [4][23]. 3. Ultra - Long Treasury Bond Issuance Enters an Acceleration Phase - In 2025, 1.3 trillion of ultra - long special treasury bonds are to be issued from April to October. Assuming uniform issuance, the 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year scales are expected to be 300 billion yuan, 850 billion yuan, and 150 billion yuan respectively [5][27]. - The issuance peak of ultra - long special treasury bonds is expected from May to September, with May, August, and September having a monthly scale of around 240 billion yuan, and June and July around 190 billion yuan. The issuance will wind down in October. The issuance pattern of alternating ultra - long ordinary and special treasury bonds continues, with ordinary ones resuming in November [5][27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% in the next six months [1][19]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from its investment in a city duty-free store in Guangzhou, capitalizing on the growth of inbound consumption and sharing in duty-free revenues [1]. - The report highlights the recovery of inbound tourism, with a significant increase in international visitors, which is projected to enhance the company's profitability [7]. - The establishment of a city duty-free store aligns with recent policy changes aimed at promoting duty-free shopping, which is expected to create synergies among various stakeholders involved in tourism and retail [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 7,424 million, 2025E: 8,182 million, 2026E: 9,703 million, 2027E: 10,289 million, with growth rates of 15.4%, 10.2%, 18.6%, and 6.0% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: 2024A: 926 million, 2025E: 1,215 million, 2026E: 939 million, 2027E: 1,110 million, with growth rates of 109.5%, 31.3%, -22.7%, and 18.2% respectively [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: 2024A: 0.39, 2025E: 0.51, 2026E: 0.40, 2027E: 0.47 [3][8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 11.5 yuan, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 9.35 yuan [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.66 CNY based on a 30x PE for 2025 [1][10]. Core Views - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its domestic and international market channels through both organic growth and acquisitions. It has established strategic partnerships to enhance its global market presence [1][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.595 billion, 1.902 billion, and 2.246 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 79 million, 100 million, and 138 million CNY [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been in the power equipment sector for 20 years, focusing on the development of transformers and expanding into new energy storage solutions. It has a stable management team with significant industry experience [6][13][20]. - The company has achieved a revenue of 1.348 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34.3% [2][29]. Domestic Market - The domestic market is benefiting from increased investment in the power grid, with a projected investment of over 8,250 billion CNY in 2025. The company is expanding its market channels and has a strong order backlog [39][41]. - The company has successfully won multiple tenders in various provinces, enhancing its market presence [6][39]. International Market - The company has made significant inroads into Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe, securing contracts worth 0.6 billion CNY in Nepal and 0.73 billion CNY in Angola [9][10]. - A strategic partnership with HaiXing Electric will enhance the company's market penetration in specific overseas regions [9][10]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with estimates of 1.595 billion CNY in 2025, 1.902 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.246 billion CNY in 2027. Net profits are projected to grow significantly during this period [2][10]. - The report highlights a strong growth trajectory supported by a robust order book and expanding market channels [10][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 15.6 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 48.055 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.63%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.94% to 2.838 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 9.756 billion yuan, up 18.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 628 million yuan, down 1.33% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable wind power market in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in its energy business overseas. The company has a substantial backlog of orders amounting to approximately 31.2 billion yuan, with marine series orders at about 13.4 billion yuan [1][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 48,055 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 6.6% - Net profit: 2,838 million yuan - Year-on-year decline: 8.9% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.83 yuan [3][9] - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 57,514 million yuan - Expected net profit: 3,549 million yuan - Expected EPS: 1.04 yuan - Projected PE ratio: 13 [3][9] - **2026 and 2027 Projections**: - 2026 expected revenue: 59,521 million yuan - 2027 expected revenue: 61,945 million yuan - 2026 expected net profit: 3,990 million yuan - 2027 expected net profit: 4,392 million yuan - EPS for 2026: 1.17 yuan, for 2027: 1.29 yuan [3][9]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from the power sector was 19.785 billion yuan in 2024, showing an increase of 18.18%. The marine business revenue was 3.644 billion yuan, which remained stable, while the optical communication segment saw a decline of 11.19% to 8.094 billion yuan [1][8]. - The power segment contributed significantly to the gross profit, with a gross margin of 15.15%, while the marine segment's performance was affected by operational issues [1][8]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the international submarine cable market, with expectations of a surge in domestic submarine cable deliveries in 2025. The company has secured orders for European offshore wind cables, which are expected to be delivered starting in 2025 [1][8]. - The international market demand is primarily driven by offshore wind power, power interconnection, and marine oil and gas sectors, with notable growth in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 14.1 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in Q1 2025 with a significant increase in revenue and a turnaround in profitability, indicating a positive trend for future performance [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic and international order deliveries, leading to a recovery in manufacturing profitability [7][8]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.71, 0.94, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 11, and 9 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 271.58 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.43% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.46 billion CNY, down 8.12% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.04 billion CNY, an increase of 51.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.02 billion CNY, showing a slight decrease of 0.70% year-on-year but a recovery from previous losses [1][3]. - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow significantly in 2025, with an estimated 39.77 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 46.4% [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - The wind turbine and components business generated revenue of 208.33 billion CNY in 2024, down 12.4% year-on-year, while the sales volume of wind turbines reached 10.82 GW, an increase of 11.66% year-on-year [7]. - The power generation segment reported revenue of 17.3 billion CNY in 2024, up 15.35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 57.14% [7]. - In Q1 2025, the wind turbine and components segment saw revenue of 56.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 101%, with a significant improvement in gross margin [7]. Order Backlog and Future Outlook - As of Q1 2025, the company secured new orders of 4.89 GW, a year-on-year increase of 154%, with total backlog reaching approximately 42.22 GW, a record high [7]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in delivery volumes in 2025, supported by stable pricing in the industry and a focus on cost reduction [7].

Group 1 - The core strategy focuses on high free cash flow return rates combined with low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders [3][4] - The selection criteria for individual stocks include: annual free cash flow return rate greater than the 80th percentile of the market, average dividend and buyback ratio over the past three years exceeding the 70th percentile, average capital expenditure ratio over the past five years below the 30th percentile, average net working capital increase ratio over the past five years below the 50th percentile, and the latest annual ROE change compared to the five-year peak greater than -20% [4][6] - The equal-weighted portfolio has outperformed the market in 9 out of the last 11 years, with an annualized return of 16.4% compared to 8.0% for the market index [4][6] Group 2 - The updated stock composition based on the 2024 annual report includes 37 stocks, with significant representation from sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, and electric power [8][11] - The industry weight distribution shows a current reallocation towards machinery and pharmaceuticals, each close to 20%, while electric power and food & beverage sectors have increased to 8% [10][11] Group 3 - The cash flow performance of Jiangsu Electric Power indicates a controlled capital expenditure with a CAPEX/D&A ratio below 1, despite increased capital spending due to new projects [14] - Midea Group has maintained stable capital expenditure levels, but significant changes in financial asset allocations have impacted free cash flow, with a FCFF/EBITDA ratio of 41% in Q1 2025 [17] - Wuliangye's capital expenditure remains high, but its strong profitability keeps the CAPEX/EBITDA ratio at 6%, with a FCFF/EBITDA ratio of 116% in Q1 2025, indicating robust shareholder return capabilities [20]