行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目开建， 钛白粉价格再度调涨 投资要点： 投资主线四：经济向好、需求复苏，龙头白马充分受益。随着海内外经济 回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经多年竞 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 1.72%，创业板指数下跌 4.87%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.22%，中信基础化工指数下跌 0.27%，申万化工指数下跌 0.94%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨幅前五的子行业分别为绵纶 (6.45%)、其他塑料制品(4.22%)、轮胎(3.7%)、粘胶(3.34%)、纯碱(2.11%)；化 工板块跌幅前五的子行业分别为氯碱(-6.66%)、改性塑料(-4.33%)、有机硅 (-4.29%)、电子化学品(-3.73%)、膜材料(-3.35%)。 本周行业主要动态： 新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目开建。2 月 23 日，规划总投资达 338 亿元 的新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目，在新疆准东经济技术开发区开工 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the importance of the aging population in China, with the elderly population aged 60 and above reaching 267 million by the end of 2021, accounting for 18.9% of the total population, and expected to exceed 400 million by 2035, representing nearly 30% of the total population [3][4] - The rise of the silver economy is projected to reach a total value of 30 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for 10% of GDP, covering industries such as healthcare and senior tourism, thus becoming a new economic growth point [3][4] - Government policies are driving the elderly population towards a confident, active, and independent lifestyle, changing traditional perceptions and breaking the notion that aging equates to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The new silver generation is redefining their lifestyles, with 54% of middle-aged and elderly individuals feeling younger than their actual age, and 42% believing that their later years will be more exciting than their middle age [4][5] - Over 68% of middle-aged and elderly individuals express a willingness to re-enter the workforce, with 46.7% seeking personal value realization through re-employment, indicating a shift towards pursuing dreams rather than merely meeting economic needs [5][6] - The trend of lifelong education and interest-based learning is flourishing, with 70% of middle-aged and elderly individuals starting to learn out of interest, and popular courses including singing, dancing, and technical skills [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on related investment opportunities in the elderly education market, particularly online platforms that provide easy access to learning resources [6][8] - The entrepreneurial spirit among the new silver generation is evident, with many exploring new career paths and starting businesses, creating market opportunities for platforms and service providers [6][8] - Specific companies to watch include educational institutions, online learning platforms, entrepreneurial support platforms, and social media and content creation companies, which are positioned to benefit from the growing silver economy [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance has established a bottom, with revenue for 2024 projected at 40.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit of 3.126 billion yuan, up 1.29% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights an improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the paper industry, with multiple price increases for cultural paper since November, suggesting a positive outlook for H1 2025 [4]. - The ongoing construction of the Nanning Phase II project is expected to enhance the company's integrated advantages in the pulp and paper industry, with additional production lines set to come online by 2026 [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 39.544 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 1% compared to the previous year, while net profit increased by 10% to 3.086 billion yuan [7]. - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 3.0%, 6.6%, and 6.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates projected at 1.3%, 8.4%, and 16.8% for the same years [5][7]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.12 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.42 yuan by 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Shengmu [8][10]. Core Views - China Shengmu is the largest organic raw milk producer in China, focusing on upstream ranch operations and benefiting from a strong partnership with Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 29.99% stake in the company [3][8]. - The high-end organic milk market is expanding due to consumer upgrades driven by rising income levels and the emergence of a new middle class [5][30]. - The company has a unique geographical advantage in the Ulan Buh Desert, which enhances its product quality and safety, creating a competitive moat [6][65]. - The scale of operations allows the company to effectively manage risks and improve operational efficiency, particularly in the face of fluctuating feed prices [7][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shengmu was founded in 2009 and became the first global organic raw milk stock listed in Hong Kong in 2014. The company has shifted its focus to organic raw milk production since 2018, partnering with Mengniu to enhance operational efficiency [18][21]. - The company operates a fully organic supply chain, from pasture planting to milk processing, and has received dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU [18][69]. Market Potential - The report highlights that the average per capita consumption expenditure in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.96% from 2010 to 2023, indicating a strong foundation for high-end milk consumption [30]. - Organic milk is becoming a popular choice among consumers due to its higher quality standards and health benefits, with the market for organic products in China expected to grow significantly [37][47]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency by focusing on large-scale ranching, which reduces the risk of disease and allows for better cost management [7][52]. - The report notes that the proportion of organic raw milk sales has increased from 41.4% in 2019 to 77% in 2023, contributing to improved profitability [25][78]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are expected to be -80 million, -20 million, and 291 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 will be 6 times, reflecting the company's growth potential in the organic milk sector [8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - Home Depot's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by increased demand for home renovations and outdoor refurbishments following a typhoon. The company reported Q4 revenue of $39.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit of $3 billion, up 7% year-on-year [2][3]. - For FY24, Home Depot achieved total revenue of $159.5 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, although comparable revenue declined by 1.8%. The company opened 10 new stores in the U.S. and 2 in Mexico during the fiscal year [2][3][4]. - The company anticipates a conservative outlook for FY25, projecting a revenue increase of 2.8% year-on-year and a comparable revenue increase of 1%. Despite a recovery in housing transactions, demand for large projects is expected to remain weak due to high mortgage rates [4]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Home Depot's Q4 revenue was $39.7 billion, with a comparable revenue increase of 0.8%. The performance was influenced by seasonal factors and a strong demand for home improvement products, particularly in appliances, garden supplies, and building materials [3][4]. - The company experienced a gross margin of 32.8% in Q4, a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to acquisition impacts [4]. FY24 Overview - For FY24, Home Depot's total revenue reached $159.5 billion, with a net profit of $14.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in net profit. The overall gross margin for the year was 33.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. FY25 Outlook - The management's outlook for FY25 is cautious, with expectations of a 2.8% revenue growth and a gross margin target of 33.4%. The company does not foresee a significant increase in housing transaction volumes or a substantial drop in mortgage rates, which may affect large project demands [4].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 2 月 23 日 【华福固收】从产业集群看待民企座谈会 及投资策略 ➢ 从产业集群看待民企座谈会及投资策略 2025年2月17日上午，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平在北京出席了民营企业 座谈会。总书记在本次座谈会的谈话，对国内众多民营企业的未来发展具有重要意义。不同省市 区县的资源禀赋、科技实力、高校人才、资金力度，虽然均有不同、各有差异，但是省会城市、 省域副中心、经济大市却仍存在大量优质上市公司、细分龙头企业及特色产业集群，地方政府可 以深入挖掘潜力的空间依然较多。国家及各部委不断推出的各类政策措施及资金扶持，以及各省 市正在打造"省级/市级产业基金"来赋能本地特色优势产业，对各种类型与规模的民营企业带 来较多帮助与裨益。 鉴于此，基于产业集群角度，后续可以重点关注区域可以分为三类。第一，可以重点关注有较多 中小企业特色产业集群的地级市、县级市及市辖区，尤其是《2024年度中小企业特色产业集群名 单》所分布的区域，例如经济大省的泰州兴化市、嘉兴海盐县、绍兴嵊州市等，以及属于各省 "经济大市"的宜春袁州区、河南巩义 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery in 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, leading to a continuous recovery in profitability for companies in the sector [3]. - The overall consumption remains stable, with online shopping continuing to grow, contributing to a projected retail sales total of 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3][19]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to achieve a total volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [19][26]. Summary by Sections Demand and Profitability - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly for franchise companies, as demand in 2024 is expected to be robust [3][16]. - The direct express delivery company SF Express continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement strategies, showing significant profit recovery [3][16]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures for direct express delivery are on a downward trend, while the capital expenditure situation among franchise companies shows divergence [3][31]. - In 2024, SF Express's capital expenditure is projected to increase by 12.0% in Q1, but decrease by 29.0% and 41.1% in Q2 and Q3, respectively [3][31]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the competitive landscape remains stable, with the market concentration ratio (CR8) holding steady at around 85.2% [39]. - The pricing strategies among major players in the express delivery sector are expected to remain restrained, with the industry average selling price (ASP) continuing to decline due to the impact of "small package" trends [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players such as SF Express, with additional attention on Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Debon Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policy shifts [3][82]. - The express delivery sector is identified as having significant potential for bottom-fishing investment opportunities, particularly in light of current low valuations for leading companies [3][82].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the joint initiative by six ministries to promote the large-scale utilization of marine energy, aiming for an installed capacity of 400,000 kW by 2030, with current capacity at approximately 10,300 kW, ranking fourth globally [3]. - The combination of wave energy and offshore wind power is encouraged to enhance energy output and reduce costs, with potential reductions in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by up to 7% for wind and 40% for wave energy [3]. - The integration of marine energy and nuclear energy is proposed to provide stable, zero-carbon energy supplies, particularly for remote areas and islands, enhancing the overall economic viability of energy systems [4]. - Marine biomass energy, particularly from microalgae, is identified as a promising source for biofuels, with potential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) initiatives [4]. Summary by Sections Marine Energy Development - The report emphasizes the goal of reaching 400,000 kW of marine energy capacity by 2030, with significant growth potential from the current 10,300 kW [3]. - It supports the co-development of wave energy alongside offshore wind farms to optimize resource utilization and reduce costs [3]. Nuclear and Marine Energy Integration - The combination of marine and nuclear energy is proposed to ensure stable energy supply and support green energy transitions, particularly in coastal and isolated regions [4]. Biomass Energy Potential - Marine biomass, especially from microalgae, is highlighted for its high oil yield and potential to produce biofuels, contributing to lower carbon emissions and supporting SAF projects [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Jiangsu New Energy and China Nuclear Power, while cautiously suggesting attention to other firms in the sector [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report provides an overview of diabetes treatment devices categorized by insulin delivery methods, including insulin pumps, insulin pens, and insulin syringes [2] - Insulin pens have evolved from traditional syringes, offering improved accuracy and convenience for patients, while insulin pumps provide continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion for better blood glucose management [3][4] - The emergence of artificial pancreas systems, which integrate continuous glucose monitoring and insulin pumps, offers new treatment options for type 1 diabetes patients [6] Group 2: Comparison of Delivery Methods - Insulin pumps allow for precise and flexible insulin delivery, programmed to automatically administer different doses at specific times, but require constant carrying and higher patient reliance [9] - Insulin pens are portable and easy to use, but necessitate multiple daily injections and cannot adjust the basal rate of insulin delivery [9] - Insulin syringes are single-use and can administer two types of insulin, but they do not allow for pre-filled insulin and may lead to tissue complications if used repeatedly in the same area [9]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][6]. Core Views - The company operates with a dual business model focusing on civil explosives and lithium, providing both stability and growth potential. The civil explosives business has shown steady growth, while the lithium segment offers significant growth elasticity [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started with civil explosives and has expanded into the lithium industry through acquisitions. It has two major self-owned lithium mines and a lithium salt production capacity of 73,000 tons. The civil explosives business has a CAGR of 12.3% from 2010 to 2023, while the lithium business has a CAGR of 116% from 2014 to 2023 [3][4][15]. Lithium Business - The company has a rich supply of lithium ore, ensuring resource availability for lithium salt production. It holds stakes in several lithium mines, including a 27.9% stake in the Li Jiagou spodumene mine and a 60% stake in the Kamativi mine in Zimbabwe. The Kamativi project is expected to produce 350,000 tons of lithium concentrate annually by late 2024, increasing the company's self-sufficiency in lithium to 60% [4][87][90]. Civil Explosives Business - The company has a market share of over 5% in industrial explosives and over 10% in electronic detonators. It operates 20 production sites in China and has expanded internationally through acquisitions. The civil explosives business has shown stable growth, contributing to the company's long-term cash flow [4][29][68]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit CAGR expected to be 106%. The estimated net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 320 million, 990 million, and 1.37 billion yuan, respectively. The report highlights the company's valuation attractiveness, with projected P/E ratios of 45, 15, and 11 for the same period [5][10][12].