华福证券 动力煤 2025 年 09 月 04 日 公 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 晋控煤业（601001.SH） 25Q2 吨煤毛利环比改善，潘家窑产能注入推进 投资要点： 公司披露 2025H1 业绩： 2025H1 公司实现营收 59.7 亿元，同比-19.2%；归母净利润 8.8 亿 元，同比-39.0%。其中，25Q2 实现营收 35.4 亿元，同环比-4.8%/+46.1%； 归母净利润 3.6 亿元，同环比-44.5%/-29.0%。 25Q2 产销量提升，吨煤毛利环比改善 评 2025H1 煤炭营收 56.1 亿元，同比-21.7%；营业成本 34.7 亿元， 同比-10.7%；毛利润 21.4 亿元，同比-34.7%。其中，25Q2 营收 33.7 亿元，同环比-6.8%/+50.1%；营业成本 19.8 亿元，环比+33.2%；毛利 润 13.8 亿元，环比+83.5%。 25H1 公司原煤产量 1722 万吨，同比+1.7%；商品煤销量 1329 万吨，同比-8.0%；吨煤售价 422 元/吨，同比-14.8%；吨煤成本 261 元/吨，同比-2.9%；吨煤毛利 161 元/吨，同比 ...

华福证券 公 司 研 究 安孚科技（603031.SH） 25H1 点评：OEM 快速增长，资产重组持续推进 公 司 财 报 点 评 事件：公司发布 25H1 业绩，上半年实现营收 24.28 亿元，同比+5%；归母 净利润为 1.07 亿元，同比+14.38%；扣非归母净利润 1.03 亿元，同比 +12.75%。单季度来看，25Q2 实现营收 10.50 亿元，同比+3.92%；归母净 利润为 0.35 亿元，同比+24.34%；扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元，同比+21.38%。 碱性电池龙头地位稳固，OEM 业务快速增长 上半年公司推出聚能环 5 代电池产品，采用 0.158mm 金刚钢壳和 Spacemax 超薄密封圈结构的立体扩容技术，性能在聚能环 4 代基础上 大幅提升，进一步稳固南孚电池在国内碱性电池市场的龙头地位及海 外 OEM 市场的产品技术优势。 在碱性电池之外，南孚的子品牌"丰蓝一号"燃气灶电池、"益圆" 绿 色 环 保 不 漏 液 铁 壳 5/7 号 电 池 、" 传 应 " 锂 锰 纽 扣 电 池 和 "TENAVOLTS"充电锂电池，在南孚品牌和渠道优势的加持下，收入 实现较快增 ...

2025 年 09 月 03 日 金 融 工 程 8 月市场上涨，跟踪 Smart Beta 指数量化基金跑 赢基准——量化基金月度跟踪（2025 年 9 月） 投资要点： 主动量化基金收益分析 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 宽基类主动量化基金共跟踪 17 种宽基指数，其中跟踪沪深 300、 中证 500 指数的量化基金在 8 月份超额收益均值分别为 1.3%和-3.6%； 行业主题类基金中，跟踪中证内地金融主题、中证新兴产业、中证 TMT 指数的量化基金超额收益位列前 3 位；smart beta 类基金跟踪中证红利 指数的量化基金本月超额收益排名第一。 指数增强量化基金收益分析 宽基类指增量化基金共跟踪 27 种宽基指数，跟踪中证 500 指数、 沪深 300 指数的基金在 8 月份超额收益均值分别为-1.8%和 1.0%；行业 主题类基金中，跟踪中证半导、消费龙头、云计算的量化基金超额收 益位列前位；smart beta 类基金中跟踪中证红利指数的量化基金月度超 额收益最高。 对冲量化基金收益分析 2025 年 8 月，对冲量化基金收益绝对收益率平均收益-0.32%。2025 年 8 月份基金净值波动 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - Mitsui Metal plans to expand its high-end HVLP copper foil production capacity from 580 tons to 840 tons per month, reflecting a 45% increase due to unexpected demand from AI servers [2][4] - The expansion includes an increase in monthly production capacity at the Taiwan plant from 420 tons to 520 tons, with further increases planned to reach 720 tons by March and September 2026 [4] - The HVLP-5 copper foil is expected to transition from the development stage to mass production, indicating potential widespread adoption in next-generation CCL and AI servers [5] Summary by Sections Industry Demand - The demand for the sector is expected to grow significantly, with potential catalysts such as price increases and high-end product sample validations [6] Company Performance - Companies to watch include Tongguan Copper Foil, Defu Technology, Longyang Electronics, Jiayuan Technology, Zhongyi Technology, and Nord Shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 138.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, totaling 19.47 billion yuan, which represents 79% of the net profit for the period [6]. - The company is undergoing a large-scale asset acquisition to enhance its integrated operational advantages, with total assets of the targets amounting to 258.4 billion yuan and expected revenue of 126 billion yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In the coal business, revenue for the first half of 2025 was 103.9 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 32.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.8% [3]. - The average selling price of coal decreased to 493 yuan per ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the production cost per ton was reduced to 177.7 yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year [4]. - The electricity business generated revenue of 40.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 10.3% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 6.5 billion yuan, down 7.9% [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 51.1 billion yuan, 53.4 billion yuan, and 54.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.57 yuan, 2.69 yuan, and 2.76 yuan per share [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its strategic transformation, although it is currently facing short-term pressure while awaiting demand recovery [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 886 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, down 39.67% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supermarket channel and big product strategy to drive growth in baking and prepared dishes, countering the decline in traditional staple and snack categories [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: staple foods 413 million yuan (-9.10%), snacks 197 million yuan (-6.57%), baked goods 205 million yuan (+11.02%), and frozen prepared dishes 65 million yuan (+67.31%) [1]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 22.66%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to intensified competition in the distribution channel and staple food category [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 91 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 125 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 21%, and 14% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 33 for 2025, 28 for 2026, and 24 for 2027 [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2,322 million yuan in 2024 to 2,642 million yuan by 2027 [7]. - The report indicates an expected EPS of 0.92 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.10 yuan in 2026 and 1.26 yuan in 2027 [3].

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Bank Stock Momentum Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy leverages the momentum of market styles to identify outperforming sub-segments within the banking sector. It assumes that the internal style rotation of bank stocks mirrors the broader market's style rotation, albeit with a lag [28][48]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use market-wide style momentum to determine the dominant style (e.g., growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap) based on a two-month relative momentum difference exceeding 5% [48]. 2. Map the dominant market style to corresponding banking sub-segments (e.g., large-cap value, small-cap growth) [28][29]. 3. Select stocks within the identified banking sub-segment for the next month [48]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures value-style dominance in the banking sector, particularly during market-wide value-oriented phases [48]. - **Model Name**: Fundamental-Adjusted Growth Selection **Model Construction Idea**: To mitigate the downside risk of high-PB (price-to-book) stocks, the model incorporates ROE (return on equity) adjustments to prioritize high-quality fundamentals when selecting growth-oriented bank stocks [58]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine PB and ROE_TTM (trailing twelve months) values into an equal-weighted scoring system [58]. 2. When the signal indicates a growth-oriented market, select stocks with high PB and strong fundamentals [58]. **Model Evaluation**: This adjustment improves annualized returns by 1.82% compared to using PB alone, demonstrating its effectiveness in balancing growth potential and risk [58]. Model Backtesting Results - **Bank Stock Momentum Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 14.45% - Annualized Volatility: 22.62% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.64 - Maximum Drawdown: 33.08% - Excess Annualized Return (vs. CSI Bank Index): 5.65% - Information Ratio (IR): 0.57 [48][49][54] - **Fundamental-Adjusted Growth Selection**: - Annualized Return: 16.27% - Excess Annualized Return (vs. CSI All Share Index): 13.20% - Excess Annualized Return (vs. CSI Bank Index): 7.33% [58] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) **Factor Construction Idea**: Low PB stocks are expected to outperform due to their value-oriented characteristics [32]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide bank stocks into quintiles based on PB values. 2. Track the performance of the lowest PB quintile over time [32]. **Factor Evaluation**: The low PB group consistently outperformed the CSI All Share Index, particularly during value-dominant market phases [32]. - **Factor Name**: Dividend Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: High dividend yield stocks are expected to provide stable returns, especially in defensive market conditions [32]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide bank stocks into quintiles based on dividend yield. 2. Track the performance of the highest dividend yield quintile over time [32]. **Factor Evaluation**: While generally effective, the factor underperformed low PB stocks in certain years, indicating weaker pricing power [32]. - **Factor Name**: Market Capitalization **Factor Construction Idea**: Large-cap stocks are expected to outperform during periods of market uncertainty due to their defensive nature [39]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide bank stocks into quintiles based on market capitalization. 2. Track the performance of the largest market-cap quintile over time [39]. **Factor Evaluation**: Large-cap stocks demonstrated strong performance, particularly after 2023, with a clear upward trend [39]. - **Factor Name**: Return on Equity (ROE) **Factor Construction Idea**: High ROE stocks are expected to outperform due to their superior profitability [39]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide bank stocks into quintiles based on ROE. 2. Track the performance of the highest ROE quintile over time [39]. **Factor Evaluation**: High ROE stocks outperformed in most years but showed limitations in certain market environments, such as 2014 [39]. Factor Backtesting Results - **PB Factor**: - Outperformed the CSI All Share Index across the entire observation period [32]. - **Dividend Yield Factor**: - Generally outperformed the benchmark but lagged behind the PB factor in specific years [32]. - **Market Capitalization Factor**: - Demonstrated a strong upward trend post-2023, consistently outperforming the benchmark [39]. - **ROE Factor**: - Achieved superior performance in years like 2012, 2017, and 2019, but underperformed in 2014 [39]. --- Composite Factor Analysis - **Composite Model**: Four-Quadrant Style Model **Construction Idea**: Combine market capitalization and PB factors to create four distinct style groups: large-cap value, large-cap growth, small-cap value, and small-cap growth [43]. **Construction Process**: 1. Divide stocks into large-cap and small-cap groups based on the top 20% and bottom 80% of market capitalization. 2. Further divide each group into high-PB and low-PB subgroups. 3. Analyze the performance of the resulting four style groups [43]. **Evaluation**: The model revealed clear style rotations within the banking sector, with small-cap value dominating in 2014-2015 and large-cap value leading post-2022 [43]. Composite Model Backtesting Results - **Four-Quadrant Style Model**: - Small-Cap Value: Outperformed during 2014-2015 - Large-Cap Value: Consistently outperformed post-2022 [43]

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for August 2025 was 28.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 42% month-on-month. The main board financing scale was 8.14 billion yuan, while the North Exchange financing scale was 14.04 billion yuan [3][7]. - A total of 8 new stocks were issued in the A-share market, remaining the same as the previous month. This included 1 from the main board, 5 from the North Exchange, and 2 from the Growth Enterprise Market [3][10]. - As of the end of August, there were 52 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across various A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 603.1 billion yuan. The Growth Enterprise Market accounted for 28% (10 projects), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 37% and 27% respectively [14]. Group 2 - The offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 100 million to 200 million yuan across various boards. The main board and Growth Enterprise Market primarily fell within this range, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a more dispersed range of 500 million to 1 billion yuan [15]. - In August, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board reached 624, a decrease of 60% month-on-month [20]. - The average winning rate for main board A/B class accounts in August was 0.0081% and 0.0080% respectively, down 33% and 32% month-on-month [21]. Group 3 - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds participating in new stock subscriptions and allocations showing a contribution of +0.026% for funds below 200 million yuan and +0.037% for those between 200 million and 300 million yuan. The annualized return was 0.174% [26]. - In August 2025, a total of 3,037 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 2.87 trillion yuan. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, totaling 1,136, followed by passive index funds with 725 and flexible allocation funds with 575 [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant turnaround in its financial performance, achieving a net profit of 0.66 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss in the previous year [3][7]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.7%, driven by the high-margin medical aesthetics business [3]. - The company has a strong cash position with total cash and equivalents amounting to 3.89 billion yuan, ensuring robust cash flow and payment capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics segment generated 0.59 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 81.3%, with segment profit increasing by 215.3% to 0.31 billion yuan [4]. - The company has expanded its partnerships, adding 44 key cooperative groups and penetrating over 1,000 high-end medical aesthetics institutions [4]. Generic Drugs - The generic drug business experienced a revenue decline of 15.8% to 0.50 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 due to national procurement policies, but operating profit increased by 1.2% to 0.17 billion yuan [5]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment saw a revenue increase of 96.6% to 0.058 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in sales of diabetes medications and the launch of new oncology drugs [6]. - The company has a pipeline of over 10 innovative drug products under development, with two already approved for market [6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.43 billion yuan, 3.71 billion yuan, and 5.08 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 28%, 53%, and 37% [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 0.18 billion yuan, with significant increases expected in subsequent years [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies, allowing eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the outer ring and increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit. The new round of adjustments to existing housing loan rates started on September 1, allowing second-home loans to apply for a rate reduction to the first-home level [3][13] - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with policies aimed at boosting demand and supporting market recovery. The continuous decline in commodity housing sales area since the peak in 2021 indicates that the industry is entering a bottoming phase, increasing sensitivity to policy easing [3][13] - The report anticipates that the construction materials sector will benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the capacity cycle, driven by lower interest rates and improved purchasing power due to policy support [3][6] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Data - As of August 29, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 343.4 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and an 8.0% decline year-on-year. The average prices in various regions are as follows: North China 338.8 CNY/ton, Northeast 432.0 CNY/ton, East China 299.0 CNY/ton, Central South 312.3 CNY/ton, Southwest 329.5 CNY/ton, Northwest 395.2 CNY/ton [4][14] - The national glass (5.00mm) ex-factory price is 1152.9 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [21][24] Sector Review - From August 25 to August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 2.11%. The construction materials index rose by 0.14%. Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 8.41%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 1.23% [5][56] - The report suggests that the construction materials sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical construction material companies [6][60]