华福证券 2025 年 12 月 21 日 利率回落信用利差被动走扩 长久期弱资质城投承压 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251221 投资要点： ➢ 资金宽松带动利率回落，信用表现滞后利差走扩。本周资金宽松带动 中短端利率显著回落，收益率继续下行，1Y、3Y、5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开 债收益率较上周分别下行 4BP、5BP、3BP、1BP 和 2BP。除 5Y 期中低等 级外信用债收益率多数跟随利率下行，但表现相对滞后，信用利差多数继 续走阔。1Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1-2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益 率多数下行 3BP，AA 级下行 3BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率下行 1BP， 其余等级上行 2-3BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率上行 1BP，其余等级下行 1BP。从信用利差来看，1Y 期 各等级信用利差上行 2-3BP；3Y 期各等级信用利差上行 3-5BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债利差上行 2BP，其余等级上行 5-6BP；7Y 期各等级信用利差持 平；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用利差上行 3BP，其余等级上行 1BP。 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests that the US dollar system is transitioning from a Ponzi financing phase towards a Minsky moment, indicating a potential financial collapse and a reevaluation of the global capitalist model [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the structural characteristics of the current crisis may exceed those of the 2008 financial crisis, with the US dollar system's cost of maintenance rising sharply due to geopolitical tensions and aggressive interest rate hikes [4]. - The US is currently in a precarious financial position, with cash flow and interest costs showing significant deterioration, leading to a situation where the cost of maintaining the dollar's hegemony is increasingly unsustainable [4][22]. Industry Analysis - The report identifies the US dollar system as being on the brink of a Minsky moment, where the financial stability is threatened by excessive debt and rising interest costs, which could lead to a systemic crisis [4][22]. - The analysis indicates that the US is heavily reliant on refinancing to meet its debt obligations, with nearly all maturing debt being rolled over through new issuances, highlighting a shift towards Ponzi financing [20][22]. - The report outlines that the geopolitical rivalry, particularly between the US and China, is a critical catalyst accelerating the potential Minsky moment, as it complicates the global economic landscape [4][22]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends two potential investment strategies for 2026: one for a scenario where the dollar system refuses to adjust, suggesting a defensive posture, and another for a scenario where the system actively adjusts, advocating for asset allocation focused on enhancing cash flow and controlling interest costs [4]. - It highlights that if the dollar system does not adjust, Chinese assets may emerge as key beneficiaries in the transition from the old to the new order, particularly in sectors less correlated with the dollar debt cycle [4][22]. - The report suggests focusing on industries with global competitive advantages, such as high-end manufacturing, internet, military trade, and new energy, as potential investment opportunities in the context of a changing dollar system [4][22].

证券研究报告|策略专题报告 2025年12月21日 转型牛深入推进 ——2026年资本市场展望 证券分析师： 朱斌 执业证书编号：S0210522050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ A股牛市继续深入推进，但要注意各种影响因素。2024年2月以来，A股进入了一个新 的牛市周期。科技、转型，是本轮牛市主线。进入2026年后，预计外部不确定性增加 。市场或呈现波浪式前行的状态。 ➢ 国际宏观经济背景：美国经济风险增加，但政策存在变数。美联储2026年有望延续降 息节奏，甚至不排除更加宽松，但政策与现实的内在矛盾也将加剧。 ➢ 中国宏观经济格局：高质量发展迈上新台阶。2026年是"十五五"规划落地的第一年 ，规划相关领域板块预计将在政策助力下持续有所表现。 ➢ 中国资本市场："转型牛"继续深入推进，注意海外冲击。预计2026年的资本市场仍 将是高波动的一年。 ➢ 投资建议：专注赛道。新质生产力作为经济转型的先锋，"十五五"重点聚焦板块值得 持续关注；消费板块有望在2026年实现阶段性反攻，也值得关注。 ➢ 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期；后续刺激政策不及预期； ...

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 21 日 动力煤价再近 700，权益无需再悲观 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 703 元/吨， 周环比-42 元/吨，内蒙产地价持平、山西产地价大跌、陕西产地价小 跌。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 544.5 万吨，环比-12.6 万吨，年同比-6.5%。本周电厂日耗微跌，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存微跌，截至 12 月 15 日，动力煤库存指数为 210（-1.5）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 90.5%（+0.7pct）和 80.7%（-1.2pct）， 仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 19 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1740 元/吨，周环比+110 元/吨，山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 19 日，523 家样 本矿山精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨（+0.8 万吨），年同比-5.2%，523 家精 煤库存 272.8 万吨（+17.5 吨），年同比-20.2%；截止 12 月 19 日， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - The number of transformation companies in the light industry has significantly increased this year, particularly in traditional sectors such as home furnishings and packaging. If industry sentiment improves, market share is expected to accelerate towards leading companies [2][6] - Minhua Holdings announced a plan to acquire a U.S. furniture manufacturer for $32 million, with the current stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 8x for the fiscal year 2026, indicating a potential valuation recovery opportunity [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry sector outperformed the market with an index increase of 1.80% compared to a 0.28% decline in the CSI 300 index from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [16] - Sub-sectors such as packaging (+1.53%), home goods (+1.96%), and entertainment products (+2.51%) also showed positive performance [16] 2. Home Furnishings - In November, the home furnishings sector faced continued pressure, with retail sales of furniture down 3.8% year-on-year and a significant decline in residential construction area by 28% [31][38] - The number of transformation companies in the home furnishings sector has increased, indicating a potential market share consolidation towards leading firms if the industry sentiment improves [2][31] 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 19, 2025, prices for various paper products showed a decline, with boxboard prices down by 82.4 yuan/ton and corrugated paper prices down by 162.5 yuan/ton [48] - The report indicates a decrease in waste paper prices, attributed to insufficient support from domestic waste and weakened demand [54] 4. Consumer Products - The report highlights the strategic initiatives of Baiya Co., which aims to enhance its market presence through brand empowerment and product innovation, targeting a top position in the offline market by 2026 [10] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the personal care and stationery sectors, such as Kangnai Optical and Morning Glory [10] 5. New Tobacco Products - The report notes increased regulatory scrutiny on electronic cigarettes, which may enhance the competitive advantage of compliant companies in the long term [10] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their diverse product lines [10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with an index increase of 2.18% during the same period [24] - Companies such as Huamao Co. and Xinyi Technology showed strong stock performance, indicating positive market sentiment [29]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese internet healthcare market is in a rapid expansion phase, with an overall scale exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2024, driven significantly by AI precision medicine, which is projected to reach 35.1 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 76 billion yuan by 2028 [2][7] - The integration of "Internet + Healthcare" and AI technology into clinical practices is being propelled by continuous policy improvements, creating a new ecosystem for personalized and comprehensive health management [2][7] - Key challenges for the industry include data security compliance and algorithm reliability, which are critical for future development [2][8] Market Performance Overview - During the week of December 15-19, the pharmaceutical sector saw positive returns in four sub-industries, with the pharmaceutical commercial sector leading at +4.94%, followed by medical devices at +1.16%. Conversely, the biopharmaceutical and chemical pharmaceutical sectors recorded declines of -0.67% and -1.74%, respectively [2][9] - The valuation levels for the biopharmaceutical sector were the highest at 85.17 times, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector had the lowest at 21.86 times [2][9] Industry Trends and Developments - The report notes that the AI-driven healthcare model has entered a stage where large models are prevalent, with approximately 220 medical models supporting multi-modal data integration and personalized health management as of September 2025 [7] - The demand for healthcare services is shifting from online consultations to proactive health management, driven by an aging population and the prevalence of chronic diseases, which is boosting out-of-hospital services [7] - Leading companies like Alibaba Health and Ping An Good Doctor dominate the market, while emerging firms like Ark Health are focusing on chronic disease management through an "AI + H2H" model [7] Regulatory and Compliance Landscape - The industry faces strict regulatory constraints regarding data security and privacy, with laws such as the Personal Information Protection Law imposing compliance requirements on data collection and usage [8] - The report emphasizes the need for cross-institutional collaboration to build an ecosystem that addresses challenges such as algorithm reliability and resource allocation disparities [8]

机械设备 2025 年 12 月 20 日 机械设备 银河通用融资破局技术领跑，人形机器人规模化落地 投资要点： 斩获 3 亿美元新融资，估值刷新行业纪录 行 业 定 期 报 告 北京海淀区企业银河通用机器人近期完成超3亿美元新一轮融资， 由中国移动链长基金领投，国内外多家投资平台及产业巨头联合注资， 累计融资达约 8 亿美元，估值升至 30 亿美元，创下具身智能领域单轮 融资规模新高。作为全球首家实现从数据集、具身大模型到机器人本 体全栈自研的企业，其在多任务泛化操作、精密操作等技术领域实现 全球领先，还开源了抓取合成大数据体系等基础设施，为行业发展提 供支撑。 多场景商业落地，赋能产业创新发展 行 业 研 究 华福证券 风险提示 市场及政策风险、行业竞争加剧风险、人形机器人进展不及预期 等 团队成员 相关报告 依托核心技术优势，银河通用已实现人形机器人规模化商业应用， 工业领域与宁德时代、丰田汽车等龙头企业达成合作，斩获数千台订 单；在智慧城市、即时零售仓储、医疗康养等领域，其解决方案已在 全国数十个城市的核心场景常态化运行，涵盖 24 小时智慧医疗门店、 医院导诊、零售仓自主运营等。未来公司将加大核心技 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - From January to November 2025, the national railway transported a total of 3.727 billion tons of goods, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with an average daily loading of 187,000 cars, up by 3.7% [3]. - The railway sector is focusing on modern logistics system construction, optimizing the 95306 freight platform, and launching customized trains for bulk and cold chain logistics, leading to a 31.8% increase in cotton shipments and a 15.4% increase in intermodal container freight [3][4]. - Service quality is continuously improving, with logistics total package and network freight services being promoted, and cross-border transport showing significant growth, such as a 55% increase in container shipments via the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [4]. - The State Council has set a target for railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with a long-term goal of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which is expected to create vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in rail transit equipment revenue [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems with a focus on rail traffic control technology [5]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Railway Control: A specialized enterprise in railway transport safety assurance, becoming a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring field [5]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, covering a wide range of customers including national railways and urban rail [5]. - Huizhong Technology: Committed to serving rail transit, providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions with rich technical development and project implementation experience [5].

行 业 研 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 12 月 20 日 究 上海首例脑机接口植入患者术后一年，高位截瘫有望神 经重塑 投资要点： 植入脑机接口，开启康复新程 行 业 定 期 报 告 38岁的高位截瘫患者小董，2020年因车祸导致生活无法自理，2024 年 9 月成为上海首例脑机接口（NEO 系统）临床试验受试者，在华山 医院接受植入手术。这款上海研发的产品已进入创新医疗器械特别审 批"绿色通道"，术后小董坚持每日两次、每次 2 小时的康复训练， 通过意念驱动气动手套完成抓握等动作，还搭配下肢被动训练和上肢 力量锻炼。 岩山科技、汉威科技、三博脑科、创新医疗、东方中科、翔宇医 疗、熵基科技、诚益通、伟思医疗、麦澜德、爱朋医疗、倍益康等。 风险提示 证 券 研 市场竞争加剧、政策支持力度不及预期、技术研发及新产品开发 不利、脑机产品造成病患受伤等风险 机械设备 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 功能逐步恢复，期盼惠及更多患者 经过一年康复，小董手部运动能力显著提升，能捏起小钢珠、握 笔写字，脊髓损伤程度从 B 级降为 C 级，出现神经重塑迹象；全身温 热感恢复，肢体麻木感减轻，排汗、自主排便 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Insights - The acquisition of iRobot is beneficial for leading domestic brands, while the white goods domestic sales are under pressure due to high base effects [3][4] - Major home appliance categories have seen a decline in domestic sales due to the high base from last year's national subsidies and previous consumption pull-forward [3][11] - In November, the sales revenue for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by -34.5%, -34.4%, and -19.2% year-on-year, respectively [3][11] - The sales volume for these categories also dropped significantly, with air conditioners and refrigerators down by -30.65% and -30.79% year-on-year [3][11] - The acquisition of iRobot, which has filed for bankruptcy, may allow brands like Roborock and Ecovacs to capture more market share in North America [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - Domestic sales of major home appliance categories are declining due to high base effects from last year's national subsidies [3][11] - November data shows significant year-on-year declines in sales revenue and volume across key categories [3][11] Brand Performance - In November, the market shares for Gree, Midea, and Haier in domestic sales were 32.1%, 29.6%, and 19.7%, respectively, with Haier showing significant growth [4][16] - Midea's export share increased to 40.4%, while Gree's share slightly decreased [4][16] Market Trends - The overall home appliance sector saw a slight increase of +0.2% this week, with white goods and small appliances showing mixed performance [5][19] - The report highlights the impact of raw material prices, with LME copper and aluminum showing fluctuations [5][19] Industry News - The report discusses the implications of iRobot's bankruptcy and acquisition on the competitive landscape in North America [4][18] - It also notes the ongoing trends in ESG ratings among leading home appliance companies, emphasizing their focus on green transformation [39]