Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the U.S. initiative to establish a lunar nuclear reactor by 2030 as part of its broader space exploration strategy, aiming to solidify its leadership in space [3][4]. - The deployment of nuclear energy technology is crucial for deep space exploration, providing stable and continuous power, which is essential for long-term manned missions to the Moon and Mars [4]. - The report emphasizes the collaboration between technology giants and small modular reactor (SMR) companies to address the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence, suggesting that fission may commercialize before fusion [5]. Summary by Sections U.S. Space Policy - The U.S. has set a goal to return humans to the Moon by 2028 and to establish a permanent lunar outpost with a nuclear reactor by 2030, aiming to replace the International Space Station [3]. Nuclear Energy Technology - The report discusses the development of a 100 kW nuclear reactor for lunar deployment, which is not limited by extraterrestrial conditions and is vital for deep space missions [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests several companies to watch: 1. Jingye Intelligent: Collaborating with Zhejiang University on SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of AI energy needs [5]. 2. Jiadian Co.: Leading in the nuclear power sector with its helium fan products and nuclear pump systems [5]. 3. Guoguang Electric: Key components for the ITER project [5]. 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry: Covers the entire nuclear energy supply chain [5]. 5. Kexin Electromechanical: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products [5]. 6. Hailu Heavy Industry: Involved in various reactor types including third and fourth generation [5]. 7. Jiangsu Shentong: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear projects [5].

Core Insights - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" with a maintained rating, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The report highlights an improvement in market conditions, suggesting a gradual recovery in coal prices and overall industry performance [2] Investment Highlights - The coal price is expected to decline initially in 2025 before rebounding, with the coal sector projected to yield positive absolute returns, albeit underperforming the CSI 300 index [5] - Domestic supply is anticipated to decrease in 2026 due to production restrictions, with varying impacts across provinces: Shanxi is expected to reduce washed coal output, Inner Mongolia's production is at its peak, Shaanxi faces capacity exit pressures, and Xinjiang has potential for increased output [5] - Import coal volumes are projected to decline in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% from January to October. A slight recovery is expected in 2026, particularly in thermal coal from Mongolia, while Australian and American imports are anticipated to decrease [5] - Electricity demand is shifting, with significant increases in hydropower and wind energy, leading to a reduction in thermal power generation in 2025. However, a recovery in thermal power demand is expected in 2026 [5] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the supply of coal is likely to decline in 2026, with marginal improvements in thermal power and stabilization in non-electric demand, contributing to an overall improvement in coal market conditions [6] - The average price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 RMB in 2026, while coking coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at the bottom, with demand improvements being a key factor [6] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize leading companies with strong resource endowments, effective cost control, and high long-term contract ratios, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies that are expected to benefit from improving coal prices include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, and Guanghui Energy [6] - Coking coal companies are recommended due to their strong resource scarcity and potential benefits from counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment policies, with a focus on Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [6] Policy Impact - The report discusses the effectiveness of supply-side reforms in stabilizing coal prices, indicating that recent production restrictions have positively influenced market conditions [21][27] - The relationship between coal prices and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is emphasized, with stable coal prices being crucial for stabilizing PPI, which has been under pressure for an extended period [30][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% against the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][19]. Core Views - The company plans to sell part of its overseas subsidiary's equity to optimize its asset structure and enhance operational efficiency, which is expected to deepen its strategic partnership with Rexam Limited [3][4]. - The overall enterprise value of the Belgian subsidiary is €138 million, with the base consideration for the 80% stake set at €110.4 million, and the adjusted transaction amount anticipated to be between €50 million and €60 million [3]. - The transaction has received German antitrust approval, indicating regulatory support for the asset sale [3]. - The company is focusing on high-quality capacity construction and optimizing its asset structure by divesting non-core assets, which is expected to improve cash flow and reduce leverage [4]. - The domestic two-piece can business is expected to recover gradually, supported by rising aluminum prices and a more concentrated market environment [5]. - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity layout, with significant production planned in Thailand and Kazakhstan, which is anticipated to enhance profitability due to higher margins in international markets [5]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of ¥1.346 billion, ¥1.314 billion, and ¥1.489 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 70%, -2%, and 13% [6][7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are ¥22.187 billion, ¥23.070 billion, and ¥23.811 billion, with growth rates of 62%, 4%, and 3% respectively [7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a valuation of approximately 12 times the expected earnings for 2026 [6].

华福证券 2026 年度策略系列报告 于变局中开新局 摘要： 2025收官启新谋全局，"十五五"规划编制扎实推进。2025年是中国 "十四五"规划收官与"十五五"规划启动的关键之年，围绕"十五五"规 划的编制与谋篇布局，从顶层设计到领域细化、从凝聚共识到夯基定调，一 系列高规格、系统性的工作贯穿全年。 2026年"十五五"规划展望：稳中求进谋开局。2026年作为"十五五" 规划的开局之年，承担着"起好步、定基调、破难题"的核心使命，需要筑 牢未来五年攻坚根基。2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已发布，2026年关于"十五五"规划的预 计进程为1月中旬讨论草案并征求意见，2月下旬讨论拟提请全国人民代表大 会审议的草案，3月中旬经全国人民代表大会表决通过后，正式发布规划纲 要。 2026年，"十五五"规划纲要将循着草案讨论、征求意见至全国人大表 决通过的规范流程稳步落地，政策蓝图即将转化为"全面发力"的具体行 动，紧抓这一战略机遇期，紧扣转型红利与政策战略导向，以下几大重点方 向值得深度关注： 华福证券 1）现代产业体系建设，固本升级与创新育新并举。"十五五"规 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative performance between 10% and 20% over the next six months [6][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of Mexico's proposed tariffs on 1,463 products from non-free trade countries, including China, which will increase import costs and encourage local sourcing [3][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the structural trend of localized supply and supply chain migration, with significant overseas operations in Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia [4]. - The company's overseas sales revenue is projected to grow by 34.5% year-on-year in 2024, contributing to a higher gross margin compared to domestic sales [4]. - The company emphasizes a light asset expansion model, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, with projected cash dividends of 874 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 15.95% [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 7%, 15%, and 18% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 18%, 31%, and 22% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.22 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.35 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.7x for 2026, indicating a favorable safety margin and highlighting the company's dividend value [6].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, JinGu Co., Ltd. [6][64] Core Viewpoints - JinGu Co., Ltd. has been deeply engaged in the wheel industry for nearly 30 years, transitioning its product line towards high-value-added alloy wheels, particularly focusing on niobium micro-alloy wheels. The company has shown stable revenue growth and improved profitability due to product structure upgrades and increased sales of high-margin new products [3][4][6]. - The global automotive wheel market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% from 2024 to 2034, providing a favorable environment for JinGu's innovative products to replace traditional wheels [4][36]. - The company is actively exploring horizontal applications for its niobium micro-alloy materials, which have shown potential in various industries, including robotics and electric two-wheel vehicles, thereby creating new growth opportunities [5][58][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - JinGu Co., Ltd. focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of automotive wheels, maintaining a stable revenue structure with approximately 65% of its income from steel and assembled wheels. The company is transitioning towards high-value-added products, particularly niobium micro-alloy wheels [3][17][26]. 2. Market Potential - The global automotive wheel market is expected to reach approximately 48.68 billion USD in 2024, with a forecasted growth to around 90 billion USD by 2034. The demand for lightweight wheels is increasing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which requires enhanced energy efficiency [4][36][38]. 3. Competitive Advantages - JinGu's unique niobium micro-alloy technology allows for significant weight reduction, cost savings, and lower carbon emissions, positioning the company favorably against traditional aluminum and steel wheels. The company has established strong relationships with leading domestic and international automotive manufacturers [4][45][46]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 44.3 billion, 57.9 billion, and 72.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.7 billion, 2.4 billion, and 4.6 billion CNY, reflecting substantial growth rates [6][64]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Given the company's long-standing expertise in the wheel industry and its innovative product offerings, it is expected to provide significant performance and valuation flexibility. The report suggests that JinGu's unique product capabilities and strategic partnerships will drive future growth [6][64].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][66] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for stable real estate market policies, including controlling inventory and improving supply, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [3][13] - It notes that the easing of monetary and fiscal policies in China is expected to support the real estate market's recovery, with a focus on stabilizing transactions and prices [3][6] - The report anticipates a turning point in the building materials sector's capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and a recovery in home-buying willingness driven by lower interest rates [6][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report outlines several key policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the encouragement of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing and reforms to the housing provident fund system [3][13] - It mentions that the sales area of commercial housing has been declining since its peak in 2021, indicating the market is entering a bottoming phase [3][6] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.1 CNY/ton, showing a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 17.9% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The average ex-factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1091.4 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.0% decrease week-on-week and a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [4][25] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.18%. The building materials index decreased by 1.41% [5][52] - Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 1.11%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 1.21% [5][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming [6][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing trends in various sectors, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic, wind energy, nuclear fusion, energy storage, electric power equipment, industrial control, and hydrogen energy [2][4][5][6][34][41][46][59][66] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The State Administration for Market Regulation is proposing to standardize pricing behaviors in the automotive industry, with major battery cell companies announcing price increases due to rising raw material costs [10][11] - Companies like CATL and others with cost advantages are expected to widen their competitive gap [12] Photovoltaic Sector - A new "silicon material storage platform" has been established to stabilize silicon prices above 60,000 yuan/ton and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [18] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to address "involution" in competition, marking a shift towards government-led market consolidation [18] Wind Energy Sector - The central economic work conference stresses the importance of the "dual carbon" strategy and promotes a comprehensive green transition [34] - A project to develop a 25MW offshore wind turbine has been initiated, focusing on technological advancements for deep-sea wind energy [35] Nuclear Fusion Sector - The Tokamak fusion smart digital power station project has been launched, marking a significant step towards commercializing fusion energy in China [41] - The project aims to create a digital twin model for fusion reactors, enhancing the integration of technology and capital [42] Energy Storage Sector - The AIDC energy storage market is projected to experience explosive growth, with lithium battery shipments expected to reach 300GWh by 2030 [46] - Leading companies are accelerating their layouts in the AIDC sector, with significant collaborations underway [47][48] Electric Power Equipment Sector - NVIDIA is set to hold a closed-door summit to address power shortages in the AI era, indicating a proactive approach to energy solutions [59] - The Zhejiang power "big ring" project is expected to be completed by 2029, which will be the first provincial ultra-high voltage AC ring network in the country [60] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - Chery's Mocha robot is set to deliver its 1,000th unit by 2025, indicating growth in the robotics market [66] - SoftBank is reportedly negotiating a significant investment in Skild AI, highlighting the increasing interest in AI-driven robotics [68]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][64] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for stable real estate market policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the construction of quality housing [3][13] - It highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to lower interest rates and supportive policies [6][13] - The report notes that the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to policy easing as the sales area of commercial housing has been declining for over three years [3][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The central economic work conference has outlined measures to stabilize the real estate market, including promoting the construction of quality housing and reforming the housing provident fund system [3][13] - The report anticipates that the construction materials sector will see a turning point in the capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and improved purchasing intentions driven by lower interest rates [6][13] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.1 CNY/ton, a 0.3% increase from last week but a 17.9% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1091.4 CNY/ton, down 1.0% from last week and down 19.5% year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The construction materials index has decreased by 1.41%, with sub-sectors like glass manufacturing and cement manufacturing showing declines of 1.79% and 1.21%, respectively [5][51] - The report suggests that the construction materials sector's fundamentals and valuations are expected to recover further, with specific recommendations for stocks in the sector [6][51]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile pattern this week, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.42%. Factors such as the expected pressure from the unlocking of restricted shares in December and a slowdown in southbound capital inflows contributed to liquidity pressure [9] - The total amount raised from initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong has significantly increased since May, creating a continuous liquidity "drain" effect. The expected unlocking of restricted shares worth HKD 124.1 billion in December has intensified market liquidity pressure [9] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, coinciding with a similar rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which led to a rebound in the Hang Seng Index, closing up 1.75% on Friday [9] Group 2 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance this week, with NYMEX platinum (+6.59%) and COMEX silver (+4.70%) leading the gains, while NYMEX light crude oil (-4.34%) and IPE Brent oil (-4.13%) saw the largest declines [32] - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% and initiated a short-term U.S. Treasury bond purchase program. Fed Chairman Powell indicated a dovish stance, highlighting the dual pressures of inflation risks and a weakening labor market [10] - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week, and the current USD/HKD exchange rate remains stable, suggesting that the HKMA may not need to significantly withdraw liquidity in the near term [10] Group 3 - The global equity markets showed varied performance, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (+1.64%) posting the highest gain, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.62%) and S&P 500 (-0.63%) recorded the largest declines [36] - In the commodity market, NYMEX platinum saw the highest increase, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the most significant drop [51] - The liquidity landscape showed mixed trends, with long-term interest rates fluctuating across different countries. For instance, India's 10-year bond yield rose to 6.60%, while China's fell to 1.84% [56]