Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that oil prices have rebounded since May due to tariff adjustments and sanctions, despite a previous decline to the lowest levels in four years [1][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of OPEC+ production targets and the weakening willingness of member countries to cooperate, which are significant factors affecting short-term oil price movements [1][4]. - Long-term, the report suggests that high-dividend energy companies with production and cost-reduction capabilities, as well as growth in natural gas business, may present investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The report notes a revision in global oil demand expectations due to tariff reductions and a slowdown in economic growth, projecting global oil demand increases of 740,000 barrels/day and 760,000 barrels/day for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][15]. - In April, China's oil demand remained weak, with crude oil imports and apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel continuing to decline year-on-year [2][26]. - The report indicates that while U.S. refinery utilization rates have been increasing, the overall oil demand in emerging economies remains a key growth driver despite recent underperformance in Indian oil demand [2][16]. Supply Side - The report states that OPEC+ has continuously raised its production targets, with global oil supply growth expectations adjusted to 1.6 million barrels/day and 970,000 barrels/day for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][29]. - It highlights that the U.S. shale oil industry may face pressure if WTI prices remain below $60/barrel, leading to a reduction in drilling activity [3][32]. - The report also mentions that OPEC+ countries have exceeded their production targets, which could lead to actual production increases being lower than nominal targets due to compensatory cuts [3][31]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends high-dividend energy leaders such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for their ability to increase production and reduce costs [4][54]. - It provides target prices for these companies, with CNOOC rated as "Buy" and CNPC rated as "Overweight" [54][55].

证券研究报告 策略 维持红利，增配港股 ——25Q1 长线资金持仓透视 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 22 日│中国内地 专题研究 资金对 A 股红利配置内部分化，加仓港股消费/科技方向 本篇报告着眼于除公募基金外的四类基金 25Q1 持股变化：①总量上，中长 线资金持股市值占比环比基本持平；②方向上，资金主要加仓 A 股高股息 资产减持周期能源股，但配置思路分化，险资加仓运营型、潜力型红利，国 家队超配稳健型红利品种，此外社保基金对产能周期接近出清的中游制造关 注度回升；③资金对港股弹性资产（消费、科技）关注度回升；④借道 ETF 入市加快，2024 年险资、国家队持有 ETF 规模超 1.2 万亿。 险资：高股息配置主导，医药与港股配置为新亮点 规模：25Q1 险资运用余额为 35 万亿元，同比增加 17%，前十大股东持股 规模 4.1 万亿元，占 A 股自由流通市值 6.5%； 配置策略：加仓 A 股运营、潜力型红利品种，港股消费/科技/银行 高股息逻辑延续：加仓铁路、火电等稳定现金流行业，医药配置提升； 港股布局加速：24FY 加仓港股消费、科技，减仓周期；25Q1 险资举牌 12 起， H 股因折 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 香港资产相对优势凸显 华泰研究 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 chenwei023580@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 2025 年 5 月 22 日│中国内地 专题研究 5 月初港币兑美元汇率触及强方兑换保证，触发香港金管局卖出 1,294 亿港 币投放流动性，推动香港银行体系总结余从此前的约 450 亿港币急增近 3 倍至约 1,740 亿港币，并带动 HIBOR 利率大幅下行，如隔夜 HIBOR 利率 从 4 月底的 4.5%大幅下行至 0 附近。同时，近日宁德时代成功赴港上市， 募资规模超 350 亿港币，创 2023 年来全球 IPO 募资记录。这一发行提醒市 场香港流动性改善、且即使在没有美资客户参与的情况下，香港市场对全球 的吸引力仍在上升。今年美元在关税大幅上升的背景下不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Factors such as tariff easing, upward - revised fundamental expectations, and rising overseas bond yields exert some pressure on the domestic bond market. However, the medium - term fundamental trend is unclear, and the funding situation has become moderately loose. The reduction of deposit and lending rates is beneficial to the downward movement of the bond yield center, so the bond market is difficult to break out of the volatile pattern. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be difficult to exceed 1.8% in the short - term, and the lower limit is expected to be around 1.5% [3][27]. - For Treasury bond futures, the short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate. TS2509 is expected to remain weak, with limited room for further decline and a low probability of a rebound. TF can be used for hedging due to its low basis and low hedging cost. T and TL can be considered for those who are optimistic about the future and want to bet on a rebound, as they have a thick basis protection cushion [4][29][30]. - For IRS, no strategies are recommended for now. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited. The carry of Repo 1Y has narrowed to around - 2BP, offering little space for both long and short positions [4][90][91]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In May, after the long - awaited "double - cut" was implemented, the long - end yield rose due to the exhaustion of positive factors, while the short - end generally declined, and the yield curve steepened. Subsequently, the mention of resuming Treasury bond trading operations in the first - quarter monetary policy implementation report led to a slight decline in long - end yields. The better - than - expected results of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks broke the long - standing sideways pattern of the bond market, causing significant declines in Treasury bond futures, especially for long - duration bonds. However, as the funding situation became loose and the April financial data was seasonally weak, the bond market sentiment recovered, and Treasury bond futures turned to a volatile state [2][15]. 3.2 Spot Bond Judgment - In the short - term, the domestic bond market faces some pressure from factors such as tariff easing, upward - revised fundamental expectations, and rising overseas bond yields. But the medium - term fundamental trend is unclear, and the funding situation has become moderately loose. The reduction of deposit and lending rates is beneficial to the downward movement of the bond yield center, so the bond market is difficult to break out of the volatile pattern. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be difficult to exceed 1.8% in the short - term, and the lower limit is expected to be around 1.5%. A coupon leverage strategy is recommended, and 3 - 5 - year urban investment second - tier perpetual bonds are recommended. For long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, it is advisable to increase holdings on dips when the odds and winning probabilities are not clear [3]. 3.3 Derivatives Directional Strategies - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate. TS2509 is expected to remain weak, with limited room for further decline and a low probability of a rebound. TF can be used for hedging due to its low basis and low hedging cost. T and TL can be considered for those who are optimistic about the future and want to bet on a rebound, as they have a thick basis protection cushion [4][29][30]. - **IRS**: No strategies are recommended for now. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited. The carry of Repo 1Y has narrowed to around - 2BP, offering little space for both long and short positions [4][90][91]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Strategies - **Directional Strategy**: The short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate. The implementation of previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, along with the unexpected tariff negotiations, have led to adjustments in the bond market and differentiated performance of Treasury bond futures, with the short - end performing relatively well. The funding situation is expected to remain moderately loose under the influence of monetary policy. The bond market may not have fully digested the impact of this round of tariff negotiations, and there may be redemption disturbances from the strengthening of the stock market in the short - term. The supply of interest - rate bonds will be large in the future [24]. - **Cash - and - Carry Strategy**: There are currently no opportunities. The IRR of the CTD of the 2509 contract has no obvious advantage compared with the certificate of deposit rate, so the IRR strategy is not recommended [37]. - **Basis Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the basis. The basis of T, TS, and TF contracts has been compressed to a low level, and there is limited space for further shorting the basis. The basis of the TL contract is slightly higher, but considering the long time until the 09 contract delivery, the basis is not too high, and shorting the basis is not recommended. One can appropriately bet on the widening of the basis of the 2509 contract [42]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: It is necessary to wait. The subsequent spread between the 2509 - 2506 contracts depends on the bond market trend. Since the roll - over is almost over and the 2512 contract has poor liquidity, the calendar spread (2509 - 2506) strategy is not recommended for now [51]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: Not recommended for now. The short - end interest rate has declined rapidly after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the long - end has taken some profits due to the unexpected tariff negotiations. The yield curves of the 2 - 5 - year and 5 - 10 - year segments have steepened slightly. The subsequent downward space of the funding rate is limited, and the downward space of the medium - and short - end is narrow. The long - end and ultra - long - end are still disturbed by tariff negotiations and possible improvement in phased data, and their performance may be slightly weaker than the short - end, but the space is also limited [59][60][61]. 3.5 IRS Trading Strategies - **Directional Strategy**: Not recommended. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited [90]. - **Term Spread Strategy**: Not recommended. The term spread of the IRS fixing curve is still at a low level. The long - end interest rate is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and the short - end has fully priced in the funding loosening. The steepening or flattening space of the yield curve is expected to be limited, and the IRS curve changes more slowly than the spot and futures, and it is difficult to close positions [94]. - **Basis Strategy**: Not recommended. According to past experience of interest rate cuts, after the OMO and LPR are lowered, the listed deposit rates of large banks will be quickly adjusted. Considering the bank's interest margin pressure, the reduction of the listed certificate of deposit rate this time is expected to be significant. Currently, the basis of 1Y, 2Y, and 5Y Shibor 3M/FR007 is only fluctuating around 3BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively, so the cost - effectiveness of the basis strategy is not high [98]. - **Bond - Buying - and - Repo Strategy**: Not recommended. The spread between the 1 - year and 5 - year China Development Bank bonds and IRS Repo is limited, so there is little space for this strategy [109].

证券研究报告 房地产 全球视角下的现房销售制度思考 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 22 日│中国内地 动态点评 境外现房销售模式—以美国、日本、中国香港为鉴 境外国家和地区房地产市场普遍采用"预定+现房销售"的交易模式，通过严 格的资金监管机制保障购房者权益。具体到交易流程，首先购房者选定房源 后签订合同并支付一般不超过房款 10%的定金（存入第三方托管账户），此 时可同步申请按揭贷款；然后等待项目建设完成进入交付准备阶段；最后， 购房者验房确认无误后，才需支付剩余首付并完成贷款放款和产权过户。该 模式的核心在于绝大部分购房款均在项目竣工之后支付，并且所有购房资金 在房屋交付前均由第三方监管，杜绝资金挪用风险，保障购房者资金安全。 中国推进现房销售将对房企经营带来哪些影响？ 预售制度是我国住房供不应求时代的产物，房企也曾在预售制度下快速发展 扩张，但随着现房销售制度推进，房企的经营模型将受到影响。现房销售或 将使房企的平均销售回款周期推迟一年半左右，房企或需要通过自有资金、 银行贷款或发债来弥补预售资金缺口，这将显著提高房企的资金成本。且回 款延迟将降低项目净利润率的 IRR，据我们测算，对于某项目（仅使用 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $12.00 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 113% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 19%, reaching 430 million RMB [1]. - The improvement in net profit take rate to 1.59% is primarily driven by a reduction in credit costs, which decreased by 219 basis points to 3.4% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 25% to 30% in the second half of 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a new loan issuance of 51.6 billion RMB, which is a slight decrease of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The first-day overdue rate for existing loans improved with an 11% reduction, indicating better loan quality [2][3]. - The annualized net profit take rate is expected to improve to 2% in 2025, supported by ongoing enhancements in loan quality and a higher proportion of light capital business [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 2.18 billion RMB, 3.21 billion RMB, and 3.59 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 0.5%, 1.5%, and 1.7% [4]. - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is maintained at 1.15x, with a target price of $12 based on a projected book value of 75.07 RMB per ADS [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2] - The demand for recruitment is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in blue-collar job seekers, which now account for over 45% of new users, contributing to a revenue share of over 39% [2][3] - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, achieving a gross margin of 83.8% and a profit margin of 36% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively. The adjusted net profit estimates have also been increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB for the same period [4][11] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, which aligns with market expectations [2][4] Financial Metrics - The company achieved a cash collection of 2.18 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.3% [2] - The adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 692 million RMB, with a profit margin of 36%, indicating better-than-expected profit release [3][4] - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the full year 2025 [3][4] Valuation - Based on a DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][11][13] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $7.904 billion, with a closing price of $17.90 as of May 21 [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding the forecast of 1.91 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, surpassing the prediction of 617 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2]. - The recruitment demand is gradually recovering, with the blue-collar segment accounting for over 45% of new users, contributing to an increase in revenue share to over 39% [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, with a gross margin of 83.8% and a significant decrease in sales expense ratio by 8.5 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB [4][11]. - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 8.5% [2]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved an adjusted operating profit of 692 million RMB in Q1 2025, corresponding to a profit margin of 36%, which is better than expected [3]. - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the year 2025 [3][12]. Valuation - Based on the DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][13].

证券研究报告 银行 重视中国资产重估下港银机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 23 日│中国香港 专题研究 重视中国资产重估下港银机会 中国资产吸引力提升，把握港银修复机会。中国经济修复预期逐步改善，人 民币或有升值动力，有望催化中国资产重估空间。香港为全球金融网络重要 节点，看好港股相对全球市场的收益表现。港银市值占比高+基本面韧性强+ 股息可托底，有望吸引增量资金。银行为港股市值占比第一大板块（截至 5/21 总市值占比 21%），估值位列港交所 31 个行业倒数第 4（PB MRQ 为 0.52 倍）。政策力度加码，关税壁垒降级，个股推荐：1）稳健大行+质优 区域行 H 股配置价值凸显，如农行 H、交行 H、招行 H、渝农 H、重庆 H。 2）重视股东回报的香港银行，如渣打集团、汇丰控股、中银香港。 历史复盘：人民币升值区间内港银表现较优 复盘 2016 年以来的两轮人民币升值周期，港银获得绝对+相对收益。分类 型看，香港银行与 AH 银行均受益于人民币升值带来的股价催化，但香港银 行与海外宏观关联较大，AH 银行则挂钩内地经济。16 年 12 月-18 年 3 月 离岸人民币升值 9%，港股银行录得 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year. The adjusted net profit was 2.21 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share as its primary goal for 2025, despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company, as an industry leader, is expected to capture more market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, although slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, maintaining the top position in the industry. The average revenue per package was 1.25 RMB, down 7.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s per-package cost decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 0.94 RMB, benefiting from the growth in package volume. However, the adjusted per-package net profit fell by 14.7% year-on-year to 0.26 RMB, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates. The target price has been adjusted down by 19% to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD) based on a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E [4][6] - The company is expected to generate revenues of 52.41 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 18.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year [10][19] Market Dynamics - The domestic express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to an increase in the proportion of low-value or loss-making packages. The company is responding by lowering per-package prices to secure market volume and maintain its competitive edge [2][4] - The company has expanded its presence in the return package market and continues to collaborate with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients, resulting in a 46% year-on-year growth in its scattered package business volume [2]