Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU, suggesting that the likelihood of these tariffs being implemented is low due to the current vulnerabilities in the US political and financial markets [2][3][16] - Recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates indicate a monetary easing trend, with LPR down by 10 basis points and deposit rates reduced by 5 to 25 basis points, which may support economic activity [2][3] - The US House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to increase fiscal expansion, potentially leading to higher long-term US Treasury yields and impacting global markets [3][16] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The report highlights the recovery potential in the Hong Kong real estate market, driven by factors such as potential RMB appreciation, policy easing, and continued inflow of talent from the mainland [18] - The insurance sector is experiencing a wave of equity stakes, with a focus on high dividend yield stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards income-generating assets [19] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the uranium market due to the revival of nuclear energy initiatives in the US, which may lead to increased demand and higher prices for uranium [14] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Horizon Robotics is highlighted as a leading supplier of advanced driver-assistance chips, with expectations for growth driven by partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [22] - Atour Group reported a revenue increase of 29.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating strong operational momentum despite challenges in the business travel market [23] - Xiaomi's recent product launch event showcased new self-developed chips, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the smartphone market [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation for the industry stock index to outperform the benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The Google I/O 2025 conference highlighted the integration of AI into core search products, with a focus on enhancing user experience and regaining market share [2][3]. - The Gemini application has seen significant growth, with monthly active users exceeding 400 million and a 45% increase in usage of Gemini 2.5 Pro [1][14]. - The commercial path for AI products is accelerating, with subscription fees for Gemini AI Pro set at $19.99 and Gemini AI Ultra at $249.99, indicating a potential increase in penetration among content creators [1][20]. Summary by Sections AI Search - AI Mode has been fully launched for U.S. users, providing personalized search results and integrating with Gmail, enhancing the shopping experience with visual search and Gemini Shopping Graph 2.0, which covers over 50 billion products [2][7]. - AI Overviews now cover over 200 countries and support more than 40 languages, including new additions like Arabic and Chinese [7]. - Google Lens usage has surpassed 100 billion times this year, reflecting a 65% year-on-year increase [2][7]. Gemini Ecosystem - The Gemini ecosystem is strengthening its integration capabilities, with the introduction of Gemini Live and Agent Mode, which enhance multi-modal interactions and real-time capabilities [1][3]. - Gemini 2.5 Pro supports native audio output and has been embedded in various AI IDE tools, while the Deep Think mode allows for the generation of multiple reasoning chains [4][7]. Hardware and Future Developments - The report highlights the potential of Android XR hardware, with collaborations for smart glasses and the introduction of third-party devices like Samsung's Project Moohan and Xreal's Project Aura [4][7]. - The Beam project aims to deliver AI-driven 3D video calling capabilities, with core technology expected to be integrated into Google Meet [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.24 based on a 17X PE for 2025 [1][7][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading social media player in China, focusing on overseas markets with a diverse product matrix that includes successful social products like MICO, YoHo, Blued, and high-growth products like TopTop and SUGO. The flagship gaming business has also made significant breakthroughs, and social e-commerce is rapidly growing, indicating a potential entry into a profitable cycle [1][17][19]. Summary by Sections Social Business - The company has established a robust product matrix in the social sector, with MICO and YoHo contributing to the revenue base. Newer products like SUGO have shown remarkable growth, with 2024 revenue increasing over 200% and average monthly revenue surpassing USD 10 million. TopTop also saw over 100% revenue growth in the same period [2][17][30]. Innovative Business - The innovative segment, which includes premium games and social e-commerce, achieved revenue of RMB 460 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. The flagship game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Island," generated a total revenue of RMB 705 million, reflecting an 80.4% increase. The social e-commerce sector is also expanding rapidly, driven by customer demand and product diversification [3][19][32]. Market Perspective - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment regarding the company's long-term growth potential. It argues that the company has developed effective methodologies for creating successful social products, with rapid growth in newer products like TopTop and SUGO expected to become pillar products. The company has established over 20 global operational centers, supporting its expansion strategy [4][20][21]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 6.454 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.89% for net profit from 2025 to 2027. The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to RMB 949 million, RMB 1.225 billion, and RMB 1.461 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 7.4%, 20%, and 23% [5][6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology sector [6]. Core Insights - The Google I/O 2025 conference highlighted the integration of AI into core search products, aiming to recover market share as Google's search engine market share dipped below 90% [2][9]. - The Gemini application and model coverage are improving, with monthly active users exceeding 400 million and a 45% quarter-over-quarter increase in usage for Gemini 2.5 Pro [1][18]. - The commercial path for AI products is accelerating, with Gemini AI Pro priced at $19.99 per month and AI Ultra at $249.99 per month, indicating a potential increase in penetration among content creators despite high pricing [1][20]. Summary by Sections AI Integration and Search Ecosystem - AI Mode is fully launched for U.S. users, providing personalized search results and integrating with Gmail, while the updated Gemini Shopping Graph 2.0 covers over 50 billion products [2][7]. - AI Overviews have over 1.5 billion monthly active users, and Google Lens usage is projected to exceed 100 billion times this year, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase [2][7]. Gemini Ecosystem and Applications - Gemini Live, Project Marina, and Beam showcase Google's ability to integrate AI into existing applications, with features like real-time camera recognition and multi-language voice interaction [3][4]. - The Gemini 2.5 Pro model supports native audio output and has been embedded in various AI IDE tools, enhancing multi-modal interaction efficiency [4][7]. Hardware and Future Prospects - The report anticipates growth in the Android XR hardware ecosystem, with collaborations for smart glasses and third-party devices like Samsung's Project Moohan and Xreal's Project Aura [4][7]. - The introduction of new models like Lyria RealTime for interactive music generation and Gemini Diffusion for rapid image generation indicates ongoing innovation in AI capabilities [4][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Fundamental factors are unlikely to break the narrow - range fluctuation pattern of the bond market. The decline in deposit rates is a short - term positive for non - bank allocation demand. The bond market is reasonably priced compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Chinese bonds are a global interest - rate low - lying area. In the short term, continue to focus on non - bank allocation, PMI data, and bond supply. The judgment that the 10 - year Treasury bond will fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.8% remains unchanged. [6] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. Long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are more suitable for trading than allocation, and continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Strategy View: Looking for Opportunities along the Bond Market Pricing System - Last week, the funding situation was stable. Economic data was released, and the cuts in deposit rates and LPR were implemented. The auction result of the 50 - year Treasury bond was poor, and yields fluctuated within a narrow range. Throughout the week, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1BP to 1.69% compared to the previous week, the 10 - year CDB bond yield fell 1BP to 1.74%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 1.92%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened, and credit spreads remained largely unchanged. [10] - The bond market has been in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern since the suspension of Sino - US tariffs. Last week's deposit - rate cut failed to break the bond - market equilibrium. Currently, investors generally believe that the bond market has a high probability of winning but a low odds ratio. The report explores bond - market pricing from multiple dimensions. [11] Comparison with Credit and Other Broad - Spectrum Interest Rates - The pricing of the bond market is basically reasonable. There is a transmission between bonds and deposits/loans through the price - comparison effect and institutional behavior. After the recent LPR cut, some banks maintained the original 3% mortgage rate for new mortgages. If 3% is the bottom line for mortgage rates, the 30 - year Treasury bond rate may have also bottomed out. Currently, the 30 - year Treasury bond is 2BP higher than the after - tax mortgage rate, with limited upside. [12][13] - In practice, three factors prevent a simple comparison between bonds and loans: different availability of the two types of assets, the influence of non - bank trading desks not being considered, and banks' asset - allocation decisions being affected by multiple factors other than just returns. The cut in deposit rates directly benefits non - bank bond allocation. In the future, banks will face increased difficulty in liability management. [14][15] Comparison with Overseas Markets - Chinese bonds have become a global interest - rate low - lying area, but the short - term adjustment risk is limited. Recently, the sharp rise in US and Japanese bond yields has attracted global attention. The root causes are the reshaping of the global financial order, high debt levels, tight monetary policies, and large - scale long - bond auctions. [2] - China's interest rates are at a global low, especially at the ultra - long end. However, there is no need to worry about Chinese bond yields rising in tandem with overseas markets in the short term, as the influence of overseas interest rates on the Chinese bond market is limited. In the process of global capital reallocation, Chinese bonds and stocks may be relatively beneficiary assets. In the long run (2 - 3 years), there are concerns about the repricing of term spreads. [2][22][26] Comparison with the Stock Market - The bond market has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Currently, the dividend yields of the CSI 300, the dividend index, and the Hang Seng High - Dividend Index are approximately 3.4%, 6.7%, and 8% respectively. Considering the tax - exemption effect of insurance investments in Hong Kong stocks, their value far exceeds that of investing in ultra - long bonds. [3] - In the past two years, the imbalance in the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds has persisted. The core reason is that stocks carry price - fluctuation risks while offering high dividends. If the stock market can maintain an upward - trending and less - volatile pattern, there is a possibility of bond - market funds gradually flowing into the stock market to achieve a balance between stocks and bonds. [3] Comparison of Spreads among Bond Market Varieties - Regarding the pricing model of policy rates → funds → short - end → long - end, currently, the role of the MLF policy rate has diminished, and OMO is the most important pricing anchor in the bond market. However, the current term spreads are relatively flat, making it difficult to price long - term and ultra - long - term bonds according to historical rules. In the future, it is difficult for the yield - curve shape to steepen trendily, and investors should focus on finding relative opportunities. [31][32] - In terms of credit spreads, in the context of debt resolution and stricter urban - investment supervision in recent years, the "scarcity of credit assets" has become more prominent. Credit spreads still have room for compression. Specifically, avoid 1 - year ordinary credit bonds for now; 3 - 5 - year credit spreads still offer good value, and high - grade (AAA) credit spreads over 5 years are relatively attractive. Currently, inter - bank certificates of deposit have a better cost - performance ratio than short - term credit bonds, but there may be supply - demand disturbances at certain times. [33][34] - The spreads among bond varieties have significantly compressed. Low - liquidity policy - financial bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio, while the cost - performance ratio of local bonds has slightly weakened. [40] This Week's Operation Suggestions - Currently, the bond - market pricing is reasonable compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to overseas markets and the stock market. The fundamentals are still in a state of differentiation and bottom - grinding. The decline in deposit rates is positive for non - bank allocation demand. The long - term trend of the bond market has not reversed, but the trading space is limited, and it remains in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern in the short term. [42] - The market lacks major catalysts, so only short - term information such as funds and institutional behavior can be traded. This week, pay attention to PMI and credit - demand data, which are expected to be relatively strong and slightly negative for bonds. In terms of funds, as this week enters the end - of - month trading period, the funding center may rise slightly, but the central bank is expected to provide active support. In terms of institutional behavior, the deposit - rate cut last week led to an increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased subscriptions of funds by wealth - management products, indicating that deposit migration is occurring, providing real - world support for bond - market allocation demand. [42] - In the medium term, the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates will have a certain impact on the bond market. The low of the 10 - year Treasury bond this year is expected to be around 1.5%, but it may be difficult to break through in the second quarter. The upper limit is expected to be between 1.7% - 1.8%. Therefore, if there is further adjustment from the current level, consider entering the market for allocation. [42] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. The narrow - range fluctuation pattern of long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, so continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. Inter - bank certificates of deposit are initially in the allocation range, but may fluctuate at relatively high levels due to liability - side disturbances. [44] This Week's Core Focus This week, focus on China's industrial - enterprise profits in April, the official manufacturing PMI in May, the euro - zone economic sentiment index in May, the Fed's monetary - policy meeting minutes in May, the US PCE in April, and the end - of - month funding situation. [45]

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 周观点:全国态电池新标准出台,看 好固态电池产业链 华泰研究 2025年5月24日|中国内地 行业周报(第二十一周) 周观点:全固态电池新标准出台,看好固态电池产业链 5月22日,中国汽车工程学会正式发布《全固态电池判定方法》,该标准首 次明确了"全固态电池"定义,要求离子传递完全通过固体电解质实现,与 混合固液电解质电池形成严格技术分界。该标准将推动企业明确全固态电池 概念并实现向全固态技术跨越,加速关键工艺突破。继续看好固态电池产业 链,相关环节包括:卤化物/聚合物固态电解质、锂金属集流体、电解质膜、 硅基负极、三元正极材料、干电极等设备。 子行业观点 1) 新能源车:继续看好固态电池产业链;2)工控:关注机器人、AIDC 板 块机会;3)储能:美国大储投资补贴提前退坡,但或好于此前市场预期; 4)光伏:美国光伏补贴提前取消或退坡,或影响光伏需求;5)风电:国 内海风交付稳步推进,装机高增可期。 动文 好 SAC No. S0570518110004 bianwenjiao@htsc.com +(86) 755 8277 6411 陈爽 SAC No. S057052404 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of $15.04, up from a previous value of $12.92 [10][20]. Core Insights - The company reported a 1Q revenue increase of 0.3% year-over-year to $397 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.8%. Adjusted net profit rose 12.1% year-over-year to $120 million, surpassing expectations by 24.3% [1][4]. - The management anticipates steady growth in advertising spending from the automotive and mobile sectors in 2025, while the gaming and beauty sectors continue to face challenges, although the decline in beauty is narrowing [1][12]. - The AI-driven search feature, "智搜," has seen significant user growth, with MAU reaching 30 million in March, a 300% increase month-over-month, and daily usage averaging 8 million [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 0.8% due to decreased advertising spending in the gaming and beauty sectors, while revenue for 2026 and 2027 has been slightly increased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively [4][16]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 4.8%, 3.5%, and 1.5% to $460 million, $478 million, and $501 million respectively [4][16]. User Engagement and Advertising Efficiency - The report highlights that AI has improved advertising efficiency, with click-through rates (CTR) and effective cost per mille (eCPM) increasing by 10% and 5% respectively in certain scenarios [2][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and advertising efficiency through increased AI investments, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [1][20]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to capture user engagement through its unique content ecosystem and real-time information capabilities, particularly in the news sector [11][20]. - The report notes that the company's valuation remains at a discount compared to global peers, primarily due to liquidity factors and slower revenue growth [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $198 million in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.4%. Operating profit reached $8.2 million, up 44.6% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 4.1%, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year. The improvement in profit was attributed to strategic adjustments aimed at enhancing customer experience and brand loyalty, despite rising labor costs [1][2] - The company continues to focus on enhancing customer experience, with same-store turnover showing stable growth. The opening of new stores is expected to accelerate year-over-year. Although operating margins may face short-term pressure, the strategic adjustments are expected to strengthen the brand and improve operational quality in the long term [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company generated revenue from restaurants, takeout, and other businesses amounting to $1.88 million, $0.04 million, and $0.054 million respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 4.5%, 37.9%, and 22.7%. Same-store turnover was 4.0 times per day, an increase of 0.1 times year-over-year [2] - The average spending per customer was $24.2, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-over-year. The gross margin was 66.04%, down 0.47 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the introduction of more value-for-money menu items [2] Store Expansion and Strategy - As of Q1 2025, the company operated 123 direct stores across various regions, with a net addition of 1 store since the end of 2024. The company is committed to enhancing both the quality and quantity of its store openings, with plans to launch its first barbecue restaurant in Malaysia in June [3] - The company is actively pursuing the "Pomegranate Plan" to diversify customer experiences and explore new growth opportunities in different food categories [3] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at HKD 19.69, down from the previous HKD 21.88, reflecting a valuation of 28 times the expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026. The EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to $0.07, $0.09, and $0.11 respectively, reflecting a decrease of 17%, 10%, and 3% [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the insurance industry [7] Core Insights - The insurance industry has entered a new wave of shareholding activity since 2024, marking the third wave since 2015, driven primarily by the demand for high-dividend stocks to enhance cash income [12][16] - The report categorizes shareholding activities into two types: "Concentrated Shareholding" which emphasizes dividend income, and "Long-term Equity Investment" which focuses on high ROE [12][19] Summary by Sections Shareholding Activity Overview - Since 2015, there have been three major waves of shareholding activities, with the current wave starting in 2024. The driving factors include the need for stable cash income in a declining interest rate environment [16][25] - The average dividend yield of shares involved in the current wave is approximately 5.0%, the highest in history, indicating a significant focus on dividend income [15][31] Concentrated Shareholding - "Concentrated Shareholding" refers to situations where insurance companies increase their holdings without reaching the threshold for long-term equity investment. This type has been predominant, accounting for about two-thirds of shareholding activities since 2015 [19][32] - The average dividend yield for "Concentrated Shareholding" has increased over the years, from 1.0% in 2015 to 5.0% in 2024, reflecting a growing emphasis on dividend income [15][31] Long-term Equity Investment - "Long-term Equity Investment" occurs when insurance companies hold a significant stake that allows them to exert influence over the company. Approximately one-third of shareholding activities fall into this category [19][49] - The average ROE of companies involved in "Long-term Equity Investment" is around 9.3%, which is higher than the average ROE of the entire A-share market [19][50] Historical Performance of Shareholding Stocks - Historical data shows that about 70% of stocks involved in shareholding activities experienced price increases in the year prior, but over 60% saw declines during the holding period, indicating a "see-saw" effect in performance [5][13] - Long-term, dividends are viewed as a more stable source of income for insurance companies compared to capital gains from stock price appreciation [5][13] Industry Focus - The sectors most frequently targeted for shareholding include banking, transportation, and public utilities, which are characterized by stable profitability and high dividend yields [22][43] - The report highlights a notable preference for Hong Kong stocks due to their lower valuations and higher dividend yields, making them attractive for long-term holding [31][43]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent increase in overseas ultra-long-term government bond yields, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching 3.15% and the US 30-year bond yield at 5.08%, the highest since October 2023 [2][4] - Concerns over inflation and fiscal policies are driving the rise in yields, with expectations of a potential short-term pullback in Japanese bond yields after temporary factors dissipate [2][4] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for US Treasury yields may remain elevated [2] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The US has adjusted tariffs, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a 0.5% increase in the RMB against the USD [3] - The report indicates that the RMB may have upward appreciation potential due to structural rebalancing in global asset allocations, particularly in Asia [3] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - Global bond yields have risen, with Japan's 10-year bond yield increasing to 1.53% and the US 10-year bond yield reaching 4.58% [4] - The report highlights that the rise in yields is influenced by various factors, including uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and inflation expectations [4] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the "pre-sale + current sale" model used in many overseas real estate markets, emphasizing the importance of third-party fund supervision to protect buyers [5] - This model ensures that most payments are made after project completion, reducing the risk of fund misappropriation [5] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have rebounded due to revised demand expectations following tariff reductions and OPEC+ production adjustments, with WTI and Brent prices rising by 5.8% and 2.8% respectively [6] - The report notes that trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategies are key short-term factors affecting oil prices [6] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The report highlights the recent surge in liquidity in Hong Kong's banking system, driven by currency interventions and successful IPOs, such as that of CATL [6] - It suggests that Hong Kong's market may benefit from a structural shift in global capital flows, particularly in the context of de-dollarization [6] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - Black Sesame Intelligence is highlighted as a leading supplier of AI chips for smart driving and robotics, with a target price of 24.04 HKD and a "buy" rating [14] - Meitu's strategic partnership with Alibaba is expected to enhance growth prospects, with a "buy" rating maintained [16] - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB, with a focus on market share despite short-term profit pressures, maintaining a "buy" rating [18] - Baidu's transition towards AI cloud services is noted, with a "buy" rating based on strong revenue growth in this segment [23]