证券研究报告 保险 险资红利策略 2.0 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 24 日│中国内地 专题研究 战略上坚持，战术上灵活 1H25 险资加速配置红利股，上市公司增配红利股近 3200 亿元，超过去年 全年增配规模。由于现金收益持续下降，险资仍不得不倚重红利投资，但红 利股估值抬升和股息率下降对险资红利策略形成挑战。险资红利策略可能已 经告别"买买买"的 1.0 阶段，进入精挑细选、左右平衡的 2.0 阶段，需要 在获取稳定现金收益的同时降低资本亏损概率，同时需要考虑是否止盈以及 跌价风险。在估值已经明显抬升之后，险资集中加仓红利股的机会正在减少， 可选红利股范围逐渐收窄。我们估计目前全行业仍然欠配红利股 0.8-1.6 万 亿人民币左右，或在未来两三年内完成配置。建议关注资产负债表有韧性、 均衡增长的中国平安 A/H、中国太保 A/H、中国人寿 A/H、中国人保 A。 红利策略或步入新阶段 受制于刚性负债成本居高难下，险资需要尽力维持现金投资收益。由于利息 贡献不足，险资不得不求诸股息，这是险资红利策略的来源。在低利率背景 下，增配红利股仍然是险资长期目标。但短期看，红利股估值上升推高了跌 价风险，股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 61.88 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 13.90% in Q3, achieving RMB 35.19 billion, and a net profit of RMB 5.67 billion, up 11.11% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached RMB 104.20 billion, representing a 29.49% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 18.08 billion, up 13.11% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has secured significant overseas orders, including an EPC project from Sonatrach SPA in Algeria, valued at approximately USD 850 million (RMB 6.1 billion), which is expected to support future growth [3][4]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 31.29%, a decrease of 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product revenue structure and the delivery schedule of EPC projects [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 35.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.90%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.49%. The net profit for the same period was RMB 5.67 billion, reflecting an 11.11% year-on-year increase and a 26.91% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 104.20 billion, up 29.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 18.08 billion, which is a 13.11% increase year-on-year [1]. Order Acquisition - In July 2025, the company’s subsidiary received a project award from Sonatrach SPA for the Rhourde Nouss Boosting Project, valued at approximately USD 850 million (RMB 6.1 billion). This new order is expected to enhance the company's order backlog and support future revenue growth [3][4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was reported at 31.29%, down 3.43 percentage points from the previous year. The Q3 gross margin was 29.52%, a decrease of 3.80 percentage points year-on-year [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of new sanctions by the U.S. against two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, has raised concerns about potential supply risks, leading to a short-term rebound in oil prices [3][4] - Despite the short-term volatility in oil prices, the long-term impact of these sanctions is expected to be limited due to various factors including the ongoing transition to electricity and gas, weakened OPEC+ cooperation, and the potential for countries like India to circumvent sanctions [4][5] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a continued supply-demand balance in the global oil market [4] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1] Key Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) and China National Petroleum Corporation (600938 CH), with target prices of 27.49 and 34.75 respectively [3][19] - It also suggests holding shares of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (601857 CH) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (857 HK), with target prices of 10.44 and 8.80 respectively [3][19] Market Dynamics - The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies could disrupt global oil trade flows in the short term, but the overall supply-demand situation is expected to remain loose due to various global factors [4][5] - The report highlights that the global oil supply surplus is projected to be 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 4.0 million barrels per day in 2026, suggesting a continued oversupply in the market [4] Company Performance Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported a revenue of 207.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 69.5 billion yuan, down 13% [20] - China National Petroleum Corporation reported a revenue of 1,450.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 84 billion yuan, down 5.4% [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 85.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has received approval for its recombinant type I α1 collagen freeze-dried fiber, marking it as China's first recombinant type I natural sequence collagen facial injection product, primarily used for dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [1][6]. - The product is expected to potentially achieve sales exceeding RMB 1 billion in the medium to long term, with a favorable profit margin [6][10]. - The company is actively tracking its product strategy and market promotion pace, despite short-term stock price fluctuations due to market concerns regarding its cosmetic business performance [6][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 5,539 million (+57.17%) - 2025E: RMB 7,115 million (+28.45%) - 2026E: RMB 8,777 million (+23.37%) - 2027E: RMB 10,461 million (+19.18%) [5][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 2,062 million (+42.06%) - 2025E: RMB 2,600 million (+26.07%) - 2026E: RMB 3,203 million (+23.18%) - 2027E: RMB 3,812 million (+19.03%) [5][19]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned in a market with few leading players in injectable recombinant collagen, with competitors like Jinjibo focusing on recombinant type III humanized collagen products [7][10]. - The company’s product pipeline includes a recombinant collagen implant product that has been accepted for review, indicating potential for further expansion in the recombinant collagen medical device market [8][10]. Brand Performance - The company's brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, have shown recovery in Q3 2025, with online GMV reaching RMB 615 million and RMB 72 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20% and 17% [9][10]. - The company has also expanded its international presence, entering 13 Watsons stores in Singapore with multiple product lines [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 83.85 RMB [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, with Q3 revenue reaching 97.51 million RMB (up 51.33% YoY) and net profit of 38.64 million RMB (up 337.49% YoY) [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the aerospace industry, particularly in low-orbit satellite constellations and digital phased array technologies, indicating strong competitive advantages and growth potential [1][3]. - The company has improved its cash flow significantly, with operating cash flow reaching 21.53 million RMB compared to a negative 6.15 million RMB in the same period last year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 302 million RMB (up 65.76% YoY) and a net profit of 101 million RMB (up 598.09% YoY) [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 82.26%, while the gross margin for Q3 alone was 77.45%, a decrease of 4.73 percentage points YoY due to changes in product mix [1]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The company recorded a total impairment provision of 27.75 million RMB in the first three quarters, up from 17.69 million RMB in the same period last year [2]. - As of the end of Q3, inventory stood at 144 million RMB, a 67% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating sustained demand in the downstream market [2]. Industry Positioning - The company is deeply involved in China's aerospace development, benefiting from the country's focus on becoming a manufacturing and aerospace power [3]. - The company has established a strong competitive position in the satellite sector, with its power management chips and RF transceiver chips already in mature applications within the aerospace field [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 6.95%, 6.34%, and 4.99% respectively, projecting net profits of 158 million RMB, 276 million RMB, and 409 million RMB [4]. - The estimated EPS for the same years is 0.74 RMB, 1.29 RMB, and 1.91 RMB [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is facing short-term pressure in its tank container business but maintains a strong market position and is diversifying into new business areas such as medical equipment components and intelligent equipment, which may form a second growth curve [1][4] - The tank container segment has seen a decline in demand due to trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with a significant drop in revenue [2][4] - The company is focusing on high-quality development and aims to benefit from a potential recovery in downstream chemical demand as trade policies stabilize [4] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company reported revenue of 537 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 44.33% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.85% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 37 million RMB, down 43.18% year-on-year and 8.12% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 1.75 billion RMB, a decline of 25.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million RMB, down 44.73% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The tank container business generated 1.31 billion RMB in revenue for the first three quarters, a decrease of 32.01% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 389 million RMB, down 52.0% year-on-year [2] - The medical equipment components segment achieved revenue of 181 million RMB in the first three quarters, reflecting a stable growth of 5.92% year-on-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.54%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on tank container demand and increased competition [3] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 5.75%, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was relatively small due to investment income from foreign exchange contracts [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in tank container demand as industry inventory levels are at historical lows, and it is actively developing new products to enhance competitiveness [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 350 million, 417 million, and 475 million RMB, respectively, with a target price of 19.18 RMB based on a 2.4x PB valuation for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 61.16 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.35 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18% to RMB 165 million [1]. - The growth potential of new coating products and the expected contribution from fundraising projects support the maintained "Overweight" rating [1]. - The company has successfully completed certifications for its marine coatings in Norway, China, and the United States, which is expected to accelerate product rollout [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 55 million, down 16% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations [1]. - The gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 23.8% due to a rise in the proportion of new energy coatings and improved raw material costs [2]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company’s new energy coatings saw a significant increase in sales, with a year-on-year growth of 86% to 16,000 tons and revenue growth of 80% to RMB 480 million in the first three quarters [2]. - The marine coatings have completed necessary certifications, and the company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Europe [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 230 million, RMB 300 million, and RMB 360 million respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 12%, 3%, and 5% [4]. - The target price of RMB 61.16 corresponds to a 22x PE for 2026, considering the company's smaller scale compared to peers [4].

证券研究报告 互联网 双十一大促：闪购与 AI 成为新变量 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 23 日│中国香港 动态点评 大促周期拉长，闪购与 AI+电商或成为新变量 电商平台 2025 年双十一大促已于近期开启。总结来看，我们认为有三点核 心趋势：1）大促时间线持续拉长，活动开幕进一步提前；2）闪购成为电商 大促新的履约方式，在提升用户履约体验的同时亦为品牌商线下场域的动销 改善提供帮助；3）AI 在电商场景的落地应用进一步加快，2C 与 2B 齐头并 进，成为平台优化用户体验、提升商户经营效率的重要路径。主要标的中， 我们建议关注近期受益于闪购增量和在AI+电商产品工具领域布局较为领先 的阿里巴巴（BABA US/9988 HK），以及外卖等新业务带动下拥有较多新 增用户和流量的京东（JD US/9618 HK）。 活动时间与折扣力度：长周期活动以稳定场域，加码核心用户投入 我们认为大促周期延长反映出大促与日常性促销的边界进一步模糊，平台与 商户通过主动让利进一步刺激需求的增长与释放。而开幕提前则表明各平台 对于获取竞争先发优势、抢夺消费者确定性需求的诉求更为坚定，各平台对 于份额的竞争仍延续激烈。在折 ...

证券研究报告 涛涛车业 (301345 CH) Q3 净利符合预告，单季利润率新高 2025 年 10 月 23 日│中国内地 汽车零部件 涛涛车业发布三季报：Q3 实现营收 10.60 亿元（yoy+27.73%，qoq-1.35%）， 归母净利 2.64 亿元（yoy+121.44%，qoq+3.25%），位于业绩预增公告区 间中枢（2.4-2.8 亿元）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营收 27.73 亿元（yoy+24.89%）， 归母净利 6.07 亿元（yoy+101.27%），扣非净利 6.02 亿元（yoy+104.14%）。 维持"买入"评级。 Q3 营收同比高增，盈利能力进一步提升 25Q3 公司营业收入延续同比高增趋势，主要系高尔夫球车产品海外需求持 续旺盛、渠道网络优势显现。在海外产能支持下，关税波动对公司盈利能力 有限，25Q3 公司毛利率同比+9.1pct，环比+4.4pct 至 46.05%，同环比提 升系高附加值的高尔夫球车营收占比提升所致。25Q3 公司期间费率控制得 当，销售费率为 7.3%，同比-1.0pct，环比+0.3pct；管理费率为 4.7%，同 比+1.01pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.00 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by stable financial operations and a significant growth in inclusive finance business, which saw a more than 60% increase in interest-earning asset scale [1][2]. - Despite challenges in the industrial operations segment, particularly in the equipment operation sector, the company emphasizes its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% for 2025 [1][4]. Financial Business Summary - The company's interest-earning asset net amount for the first half of 2025 was CNY 266.6 billion, reflecting a 2.3% increase compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - Inclusive finance business contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a doubling of income in the first three quarters [2]. - The net interest margin improved to 4.06% in the first half of 2025, up from 3.95% in the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in financial operations [2]. Industrial Operations Summary - The equipment operation segment, primarily under Hongxin Construction, experienced a revenue decline of over 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters, attributed to a competitive domestic market [3]. - The healthcare operation segment remained stable, with a slight revenue decline but continued to maintain profitability [3]. Dividend Characteristics - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.25 for the first half of 2025, translating to a payout ratio of approximately 50% [4]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is around 8.0%, despite the challenges faced in the industrial operations segment [4].