►大行融出反弹，银行间杠杆抬升 银行间杠杆率回升。银行融出有所修复，本周（5 月 26-30 日）日均 银行体系融出规模回升至 3.56 万亿元，前一周为 3.02 万亿元。在此背景 下，银行间平均杠杆水平抬升，由前一周的 106.95%升至 107.18%。周内 来看，杠杆水平先升后降，周一至周四由 107.07%升至 107.35%，周五或 受跨月（跨假期）影响，杠杆水平快速降至 106.99%。 伴随平稳跨月、美国关税态度反复，非银机构杠杆率抬升，平均杠杆 水平由前一周的 111.66%升至 112.32%。周内来看，非银杠杆率整体呈连 续攀升的态势，由前一周五的 111.75%逐日抬升至周四的 112.66%，周五 小幅回落至 112.11%。 交易所杠杆率在持续抬升，平均杠杆水平由前一周的 123.28%小幅升 至 123.29%。周内来看，杠杆率"一波三折"，周三杠杆水平降至 122.90%的周内低点，周四短暂抬升后，周五再度降至 123.50%。 ►基金重新博弈久期 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 月末理财环比降 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略月报 风险提示：海外政策变化超预期，海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 1） 海外方面，美国特朗普关税政策一波三折，需持续关注中美贸易谈判进展。本周美国关税政策多次反复，引发 市场预期扰动。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法院认定特朗普关税越权，"对等关税"和芬太尼关税将被取消，但 5 月 29 日，美国上诉法院就恢复实施了关税政策；5 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起将把钢铁和铝 的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。中美谈判方面，美国财长贝森特称中国贸易谈判"有点停滞"，并暗示破局需两 国领导人的参与；白宫国家经济委员会主任表示，中美可能于本周就关税问题进行会谈。现阶段中美贸易谈判 节奏偏慢或部分出于谈判战术考虑，后续中美二阶段磋商仍是市场风险偏好的关键影响因 ...

证券研究报告|中小盘周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 广东核能产业联盟会员大会在深举行，重点关注核聚变产业链 [Table_Title2] ——中小盘周报 [Table_Summary] ►本周市场表现：A 股主要指数呈现下跌调整，环保、医 药生物等板块涨幅居前 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 月 30 日，下同）上证指数（申万，下 同）收于 3,347.49 点，下跌 0.03%；深证成指收于 10,040.63 点，下跌 0.91%；创业板指收于 1,993.19 点，下跌 1.40%。本周 大盘指数收于 3,412.78 点，下跌 1.25%；小盘指数收于 4,385.99 点，上涨 0.81%，小盘/大盘收盘指数比值为 1.29。 本周 31 个申万一级行业中，环保、医药生物等板块涨幅相对居 前，汽车、电力设备等板块跌幅相对较大。 本周全 A 市场中,古麒绒材、路桥信息等 10 只股票涨幅居前，利 君股份、郑中设计等 10 只股票跌幅居前。 ►海外视角：本周美股三大指数呈现齐涨态势，港股三大 指数呈现下跌调整 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating its layout in China, with strong domestic demand for core components and significant market potential. Companies that can quickly implement clear application scenarios are expected to benefit significantly [2][15][19] - The electric vehicle industry is experiencing rapid growth, with several brands reporting significant year-on-year increases in delivery volumes. The introduction of new technologies and policies is expected to sustain this growth [3][21][22] - The demand for distributed energy storage in Australia is anticipated to grow rapidly due to new subsidy policies, which will lower installation costs and stimulate market growth [4][28][29] - Denmark is launching a 3GW offshore wind power tender with substantial subsidies, signaling a positive market outlook for offshore wind energy in Europe [5][30][32] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of embodied intelligence, with commercial applications expected to drive mass production. Domestic companies that achieve breakthroughs in core components are likely to benefit significantly [2][15] - Major tech companies are entering the humanoid robot market, creating opportunities for the supply chain. Companies with strong ties to the T-chain are expected to lead in market share and valuation [16][19] New Energy Vehicles - In May 2025, several electric vehicle manufacturers reported impressive delivery figures, with some companies like Xiaopeng and Leap Motor showing over 100% year-on-year growth. The overall market is expected to continue growing due to technological advancements and supportive policies [20][21][22] - The industry is characterized by rapid growth, with new models enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, supported by innovations in battery technology [22][23] New Energy - Australia is set to see a surge in household energy storage demand, driven by new subsidy policies that will significantly reduce installation costs [28][29] - The penetration rate of household batteries connected to rooftop solar systems remains low, indicating substantial growth potential in the distributed energy storage market [29] Wind Power - Denmark's new offshore wind power tender is expected to double its offshore wind capacity, providing a significant boost to the European wind energy sector [30][32] - The offshore wind industry is anticipated to benefit from improved subsidy policies, which will enhance market confidence and stimulate demand across the supply chain [32][49]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of low-altitude intelligent network layout and the normalization of satellite constellation launches, which are expected to catalyze the application of low-altitude economy [2][13] - The "Jiutian" drone is set to make its maiden flight, with potential applications in logistics and aerial photography, paving the way for urban transportation and emergency rescue in the medium to long term [2][16] - The report highlights the strategic importance of low-altitude intelligent networks as a digital foundation for low-altitude economic development, ensuring efficient regulation and safe operations in an open airspace [8][12] Summary by Sections 1. "Jiutian" Drone Maiden Flight - The "Jiutian" drone features a wingspan of 25 meters, a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons, and a maximum payload of 6 tons, with capabilities for various types of munitions [6][7] - The drone is designed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China and is expected to complete its maiden flight by the end of June 2024 [6][7] 2. Low-altitude Intelligent Network Layout - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to promote policies for high-quality development of the low-altitude economy by 2025, including the research and layout of low-altitude intelligent networks [8][12] - The report outlines a three-tier architecture for the low-altitude intelligent network, including airborne terminals, data support layers, and application systems [11] 3. Investment Logic and Beneficiary Stocks - The report recommends continuous investment in the low-altitude sector, highlighting companies like China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom for their roles in low-altitude intelligent network infrastructure [2][16] - Other beneficiary stocks include ZTE Corporation, Tongyu Communication, and Haige Communication, which are involved in various aspects of the low-altitude and satellite communication industries [2][16]

► 市场行情回顾 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 21 周（实际交易日为 2025.5.26-2025.5.30）上证 指数下跌 0.03%，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，创业板指数下跌 1.4%。恒生指数下跌 1.32%，恒生互联网指数下跌 0.91%，行 业领先恒生指数 0.41pct。SW 传媒指数上涨 1.74%，领先创业 板指数 3.14pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨跌幅排名中位列第 6 位。子行业中互联网服务、影视和广告营销位列前三位，分 别为上涨 2.88%、上涨 2.76%和上涨 2.06%。 ► 核心观点&投资建议 四月游戏收入同比增长超二成，长线产品驱动增长。伽马数 据显示，2025 年 4 月中国游戏市场规模达 273.51 亿元，同比 增长 21.93%，其中移动游戏同比增长 28.41%，出海收入同比 增长 9.62%，主要增长动力来自《王者荣耀》《原神》等长线 产品和《Last War》等出海产品。我们认为，长线驱动收入增 长，凸显当下产业长期健康发展趋势，看好头部厂商通过 IP 运营和内容迭代构建的持续盈利能力，以及双端互通和出海 布局带来的增量空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The earnings expectation term structure factor has historically performed well and exhibits high stability [9][11]. - The "synthetic momentum ff" factor, which combines the earnings expectation term structure momentum factor with traditional analyst forecast adjustment factors, shows improved performance, offering both high returns and stability [11]. - In May 2025, the selected stock portfolios based on the "synthetic momentum ff" factor underperformed the benchmark in the CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices, with excess returns of -0.15%, -0.32%, and -0.32% respectively, while the CSI 500 portfolio outperformed with an excess return of 0.57% [2][14]. - For the first five months of 2025, the stock portfolios in the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices had returns of -1.32%, 0.38%, -0.25%, and 3.45% respectively, with excess returns of 1.09%, 1.33%, 1.79%, and 2.29%, all outperforming their benchmarks [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor - Analysts predict future earnings for listed companies, and the trend of these earnings expectations over the years is termed the earnings expectation term structure [7]. - This structure can be categorized into three basic forms: upward sloping, flat, and downward sloping, which represent optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic analyst expectations respectively [7]. 2. Stock Selection Performance - Stock portfolios were constructed by selecting the top 50, 50, 100, and 100 stocks based on the "synthetic momentum ff" factor from the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices [14]. - The historical performance of these portfolios has been strong, with specific performance metrics noted for May 2025 and the first five months of the year [2][14].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The tungsten price has increased week-on-week due to a tight supply of upstream raw materials, which is expected to persist in the short term [12][21] - Nickel prices have decreased, with smelters continuing to face losses; however, the approval of increased nickel mining quotas in Indonesia may enhance supply expectations for 2025 [13][24] - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but a significant reduction in global supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo could support prices in the near future [28][25] - Antimony prices have declined, but the domestic supply remains tight, with potential for price convergence with high overseas prices if exports resume [29][33] - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite some recovery in purchasing sentiment from downstream manufacturers [7][8] - Rare earth prices are showing strength, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, driven by export controls and supply constraints [9][14] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - As of May 30, LME nickel settled at $15,150.00 per ton, down 0.36% from May 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.37% to 199,380 tons [21] - Domestic nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from stainless steel manufacturers and potential export bans from the Philippines [21][24] Cobalt Industry - As of May 30, electrolytic cobalt was priced at 234,900 yuan per ton, down 0.82% from May 23, with overall weak demand from downstream manufacturers [25][28] - The supply situation is expected to tighten significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [28] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to 217,500 yuan per ton as of May 29, down 2.25% from May 23, with ongoing supply tightness [29][31] - Export controls from China may lead to a significant price increase in overseas markets [29][33] Lithium Industry - Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 60,700 yuan per ton as of May 30, down 3.70% from May 23, with inventory levels indicating a slight decrease [7][8] - The market is expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining lithium ore prices [8] Rare Earth Industry - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have increased, with praseodymium oxide averaging 450,300 yuan per ton, up 0.88% from May 23 [9][14] - Export controls from China are likely to tighten supply in overseas markets, supporting price increases [9][14] Tungsten Industry - As of May 30, white tungsten concentrate was priced at 167,500 yuan per ton, up 2.45% from May 23, driven by tight raw material supply [12][21] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 has been reduced, further tightening supply expectations [12][21]

Group 1: Market Performance - Overseas equity indices mostly rose, with the German DAX reaching a new high during the week[1] - The Nasdaq increased by 2.01% in May, leading other asset classes with a monthly gain of 9.56%[1] - A-shares experienced a narrow consolidation with the CSI 1000 rising by 0.62%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points[2] - Japan's broad CPI reached 3.6% in March 2025, indicating upward inflation pressure[31] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. steel tariff was raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025[26] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the appellate court temporarily reinstated them[23] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive increase[40] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated, with a recent drop of 10 basis points to 4.410%[10] - Japanese long-term bond yields have been rising due to increased inflation expectations and a tightening monetary policy[31] - Domestic bond rates remained stable, with slight declines in long-term yields observed[1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and military industry is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The successful recovery of the rocket marks a significant breakthrough from 0 to 1, indicating a dual inflection point of "technological breakthrough" and "scale explosion" in China's commercial aerospace sector [4] - The global commercial aerospace sector is accelerating the development of reusable rockets and low-orbit satellite constellations, with various applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars, computing satellites, and space broadband emerging [4][9] - The expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum by the FCC is expected to trigger a new round of military upgrades and address the spectrum scarcity issue faced by the commercial aerospace and satellite internet industries [7][8] Summary by Sections Events - Event 1: Arrow Technology's "Yuanhang No. 1" rocket successfully completed China's first flight test for "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel + offshore soft landing recovery," marking a major breakthrough in reusable technology [2] - Event 2: Geely plans to launch multiple satellites, including the "Qianli Haohan" satellite, to achieve global real-time satellite communication services [2] - Event 3: China Telecom's satellite communication division signed a cooperation agreement with Laos for the overseas commercialization of satellite communication technology [3] - Event 4: The FCC announced a significant expansion of available satellite communication frequency spectrum to support the development of low-orbit satellites and next-generation satellite broadband services [3] Reusable Rockets - Reusable liquid rockets are transforming from "consumables" to "durable tools," enabling large-scale launches and significantly reducing costs [5] - The cost of a single launch can be reduced from "hundreds of millions" to "tens of millions," a decrease of 70% compared to traditional expendable rockets [5] - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are set to conduct the first flights of reusable rockets in 2025, including Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 [5][6] Spectrum Resources - The scarcity of satellite frequency resources has led to conflicts among countries, with the FCC's expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum aimed at alleviating this issue [7][8] - The FCC's consultation on using underutilized frequency bands is expected to support the needs of large-scale satellite constellation systems like SpaceX's Starlink [8] Satellite Applications - The value of satellite direct connection services is immense, with applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars becoming a reality [9] - Huawei's "Space Broadband" plan aims to establish a satellite network for global high-speed data transmission, with a target of achieving 100Gbps+ interstellar optical internet by 2030 [10] - Geely's satellite network will support intelligent safety driving systems, ensuring high-precision positioning even in remote areas [10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the progress of reusable rockets and satellite constellation networking, particularly breakthroughs in applications like satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars [11] - Beneficiary companies include Putian Technology, Shanghai Huanxun, Zhenlei Technology, and China Satellite Communications [11][12][13]