Market Overview - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, with a broad increase in stock prices and a slight decline in the bond market as of June 3 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rose by 0.43%, 0.31%, and 0.37% respectively, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The technology sector showed recovery, with the STAR 50 and Hang Seng Technology indices increasing by 0.48% and 1.08% respectively [1] International Trade and Tariffs - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has been extended, with the U.S. International Trade Court and the Trump administration required to respond by June 5 and June 9 [2] - Trump's recent comments have escalated tensions, raising steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%, which has negatively impacted global risk appetite [2] - However, there is a shift in trading logic from escalating conflict to potential easing, supported by recent statements from U.S. officials regarding possible direct talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's routine short-term liquidity withdrawal has led to a decrease in funding rates, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [4] - The overnight rates opened at 1.55% and closed between 1.50% and 1.53%, indicating stable liquidity conditions [4] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming maturity of significant amounts of bank liabilities, which may influence banks' strategies in the short term [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume at 1.16 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from previous levels [5] - The "big-cap core + small-cap" strategy remains favored, with significant gains in bank stocks, particularly in joint-stock and rural commercial banks [6] - Consumer sectors, particularly beauty care and textiles, have shown strong performance, with respective increases of 3.86% and 2.53% [6] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.53% and 1.08%, respectively, with new consumption sectors leading the gains [7] - The AH share premium index has decreased, indicating lower relative value for Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [7] - There was a notable net inflow of 3.905 billion yuan from southbound funds, highlighting the importance of this capital in the Hong Kong market [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The market is pricing in a potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, although caution is advised regarding the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies [8] - The current low volatility and high crowding in the CSI 2000 suggest that maintaining positions and seeking opportunities in lower-priced sectors may be a prudent strategy [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry chain is progressing well, with 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat harvested as of May 30, 2025, which is over 30% of the total expected harvest. Regions such as Hubei, Sichuan, and South China have completed their wheat harvests, while Anhui has surpassed 80% and Henan over 60% [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of tracking weather changes and preparing for emergency harvesting to ensure timely collection of mature wheat. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][9] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.36%. The number of breeding sows is 40.38 million, showing a slight decrease [2][10] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose. However, due to slow recovery in production capacity in 2024, pig prices are expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 [2][10] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 2025, 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat have been harvested, with significant progress in various provinces. The upcoming rainfall is beneficial for soil conditions and will facilitate mechanized sowing [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture will focus on ensuring the timely harvesting of wheat and improving mechanization to enhance yield [1][9] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [1][9] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week. The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volume has increased significantly year-on-year [2][10] - The report highlights the need to monitor cost improvements and suggests stocks such as Dekang Animal Husbandry, Jinke Intelligent Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods for potential investment [2][10] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79% during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [11][12] - The top-performing sub-sectors include aquaculture and livestock farming, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [11][12]

Market Overview - In May, external pressures eased, and market sentiment improved following the announcement of tariff reductions between China and the U.S. on May 12, leading to a 2.39% increase in the Wind All A index for the month[8][9] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.75% in May, while year-to-date, the Wind All A index increased by 1.04% and the China Convertible Bond Index by 3.56%[9] Trade Relations - The U.S. and China reached a consensus on tariff reductions, with significant cuts announced, including a reduction from 145% to 30% on certain goods[20][21] - Despite the positive developments, uncertainties remain regarding the sustainability of these tariff changes, particularly with ongoing legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies[24][25] Sector Rotation - The market is expected to continue its rotation among sectors, with no clear leading logic emerging in the short term[32] - High congestion levels in the small-cap sector indicate that stronger supporting logic will be needed for continued performance, while the technology sector shows signs of recovery with low congestion levels[10][12] Policy Implications - The monetary policy has seen a phase of easing, with a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements and a 10 basis point cut in the reverse repo rate announced on May 7[37] - Future monetary policy adjustments may depend on domestic economic signals, particularly if the Producer Price Index (PPI) weakens further[32] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is experiencing low volatility, with a need for external factors such as credit events to drive changes[3] - The valuation structure of convertible bonds is diverging, with equity-linked bonds seeing a decline in valuation while debt-linked bonds are slightly recovering[15][19] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks associated with the Federal Reserve's uncertain policy direction and the potential for accelerated sector rotation in the equity market[4] - The ongoing legal disputes regarding tariffs and the potential for further trade tensions pose significant risks to market stability[24][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The planting industry is seeing significant progress with summer grain wheat harvest, reaching over 30% completion as of May 30, with favorable weather conditions expected to enhance soil moisture and facilitate mechanized sowing [10][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, aiming to improve yield and self-sufficiency in key varieties, supported by government initiatives to protect new plant varieties [10] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs is showing a slight increase, with a current price of 14.39 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.36% [11][60] - The supply of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a total of 40.38 million heads reported, while slaughtering volumes have increased significantly year-on-year [11][60] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 1.29 million acres of summer wheat have been harvested, with regions like Hubei and Sichuan completing their harvests [10] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the importance of mechanization to enhance yield and efficiency in sowing [10] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development for planting, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong for seed production [10] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [11] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volumes have increased by 20% year-on-year [11] - Recommended stocks in the breeding sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jinke Smart Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, with feed companies like Haida Group also highlighted [11] Key Agricultural Products Data Tracking - Corn: Current average price is 2378.15 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [23] - Wheat: Current average price is 2457.51 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [26] - Soybeans: Current average price is 3927.89 CNY/ton, remaining stable [38] - Cotton: Current average price is 14480.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.14% [42] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.71 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.73% [48] - Vitamin E is priced at 101.60 CNY/kg, with a decrease of 4.87% [48]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 6.87 billion people expected to travel, marking a 3.0% year-on-year increase. The demand for family-oriented travel has significantly surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours [1][16] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment. The emotional value and aesthetic appeal of these products are anticipated to meet consumer needs effectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with respective increases of 1.11% and 2.77% [10] - The jewelry and watch sector saw a notable increase of 6.05% [10] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The Dragon Boat Festival saw a significant increase in short-distance travel, with major cities experiencing a surge in tourist numbers [16] - Various regions hosted cultural activities, contributing to increased visitor engagement [17][19] 2.2 Industry Investment and Financing - Key investment events included several companies in the retail and e-commerce sectors securing funding, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [23][25] 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements included changes in board members at various companies, reflecting ongoing corporate governance adjustments [26][27] 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories such as gold and jewelry, which saw a 25.3% increase [32][44] 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in 2024 was reported at 985.31 tons, with a notable decline in jewelry consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [46][48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail, advancements in AI technology, and the growing consumer willingness to pay for emotional value [52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025Q1, the overall performance of fixed - income + funds was mediocre, with a median yield of 0.29%. The scale of fixed - income + funds increased significantly, and their proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points. The growth was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. High - performing products over - allocated technology stocks and manufacturing - related convertible bonds, and some leading products showed strong scale expansion capabilities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q1 Fixed - income + Scale Proportion Significantly Rebounded - The performance of fixed - income + funds grew steadily in 2025Q1. The total scale increased to 138.0734 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 15.6029 billion yuan. The proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points, the first significant rebound since 2022Q1, indicating market favor [2]. - The growth in scale was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. In 2025Q1, the scale of moderately convertible bond - enhanced, stock - enhanced, and convertible bond funds increased. The moderately convertible bond - enhanced scale increased by 9.4608 billion yuan, the stock - enhanced scale by 6.6139 billion yuan, and the convertible bond fund scale by 0.3438 billion yuan compared to 2024Q4 [2]. 3.2 High - performing Products Over - allocated Technology Stocks & Manufacturing - related Convertible Bonds 3.2.1 High - performing Funds' Convertible Bond Positions Were Highly Differentiated - Among stock - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 1.54% in 2025Q1. Guotai Shuangli Bond had the highest yield of 5.49%, and Nongyin Ruikang 6 - month Holding had a yield of 2.52%. The average scale of high - performing stock - enhanced funds was 4.688 billion yuan, with 3 products exceeding 10 billion yuan [26]. - In terms of stock and convertible bond positions, the stock positions of high - performing stock - enhanced funds were mostly between 10% - 20%, with an average of 15.65%. The convertible bond positions varied greatly, with 3 products having over 10% and 7 products having less than 1% [27]. - Among convertible bond - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 3.13% in 2025Q1, outperforming stock - enhanced products. Jinying Yuanfeng ranked first with 7.81%, followed by Nanfang Guangli Return with 6.29%. Some high - performing products also had relatively large scales [31]. - High - performing convertible bond - enhanced funds showed significant differentiation in stock and convertible bond allocation strategies. The average stock position was 10.70%, and the average convertible bond position was 52.16% [32]. 3.2.2 Asset Allocation of High - performing Funds: Over - allocation of Technology Stocks and Balanced Convertible Bonds - High - performing funds had a pure - bond position of 46.2%, a stock position of 14.5%, and a convertible bond position of 23.1%. Their high returns came from over - allocating technology stocks, reducing financial stock positions, and over - allocating manufacturing - related and balanced convertible bonds [37]. - In terms of equity asset industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated technology stocks by 7.2 percentage points, cycle and pharmaceutical stocks by 3.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and under - allocated financial stocks by 8.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [37]. - In terms of convertible bond industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated manufacturing - related convertible bonds. In terms of convertible bond types, they over - allocated balanced convertible bonds by 5.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [41]. 3.3 Leading Products Showed Strong Scale Expansion Capabilities - On average, 31.0% of stock - enhanced and 54.2% of convertible bond - enhanced funds achieved net scale growth. Some products had significant scale increases, such as Huaxia Wenxiang Zengli 6 - month Rolling in stock - enhanced funds and Zhongyin State - owned Enterprise Bond in convertible bond - enhanced funds [44]. - Many leading products had large scales. For example, E Fund Yuxiang Return in stock - enhanced funds and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli in convertible bond - enhanced funds had large sizes [45]. - By fund company, China Europe Fund had the fastest - growing fixed - income + fund scale, with an increase of 15.461 billion yuan. After the scale changes, E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the stock scale of fixed - income + products [48][50]. 3.4 Appendix 3.4.1 Fixed - income + Funds Increased Holdings of Financial Stocks, and the Duration of Pure Bonds Narrowed - In 2025Q1, the pure - bond position of fixed - income + funds rebounded, while the convertible bond position decreased. The proportion of pure bonds increased by 1.4 percentage points, stocks by 0.4 percentage points, and convertible bonds decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [53]. - In terms of equity holdings, the proportion of financial stocks increased by 2.2 percentage points, while cycle and manufacturing stocks decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2024Q4 [56]. - In terms of convertible bond holdings, fixed - income + funds increased holdings of manufacturing and cycle convertible bonds and decreased holdings of financial convertible bonds. The proportion of balanced convertible bonds increased by 5.4 percentage points [59][60]. - In terms of pure - bond holdings, the position of financial bonds increased, while the positions of interest - rate and credit bonds decreased. The weighted average duration of pure bonds narrowed by 0.88 years quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4.2 Introduction to Fund Classification Method - The classification is mainly based on the average stock investment ratio, average convertible bond investment ratio, and other data. For funds that can invest in stocks, those with an average stock investment ratio greater than 20% are excluded, and different types of fixed - income + and pure - bond funds are classified according to specific rules [70]. - For funds that cannot buy stocks, they are classified into pure - bond and convertible bond - enhanced funds based on the average convertible bond investment ratio [71]. - Funds with "convertible bond" in their names are classified as convertible bond funds [72].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a projected total of 6.87 billion trips, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][18] - The demand for family-oriented travel has surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours, with bookings for parent-child group tours increasing by 80% year-on-year [1][2] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in the jewelry and watch sector [11] - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in April, with jewelry sales growing by 25.3% [36][50] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics - The report discusses the increase in domestic tourism, with various regions reporting significant visitor numbers during the holiday period [18][19] - Lao Pu Gold's new product launch is positioned to capture the growing trend in fashion jewelry, appealing to consumer sentiment and aesthetic preferences [2][3] 3. Macro & Industry Data - April's retail sales data indicates a stable growth trajectory, with online retail sales showing a 5.8% year-on-year increase [37] - The report provides insights into the gold jewelry market, noting a decline in overall gold consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [52][55] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail formats, the rise of AI technology applications, and the potential for new retail sectors to outperform expectations [59][61]

[Table_Title] 6 月债市，乱中有序 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►五月多空交替，债市防御 5 月债市，行情多变且发展迅速，中美关税进展决定利率中枢， 资金松紧与市场情绪雕刻利率曲线日度变化。 月初降息落地，幅度不及预期，随后中美关税谈判迎来重要进 展，10年、30年国债收益率分别回到1.70%、1.90%附近水平。不过， 中美关税博弈缓和并未对债市形成持续压制，月中利率进入低波震荡 状态。下旬大行存款落地，债市短期利多均被兑现，叠加税期资金偏 紧，债市进入"阴跌"状态。月末美国关税先停后续，引发全球风险 偏好波动。 5 月随着利率运行方向逐渐模糊，性价比挖掘成为市场的主流策 略，投资者更加偏好具备票息保护或者相对胜率更高的品种。一览债 市各类资产表现，信用债 > 短利率 > 长利率，利率曲线呈现罕见的 熊陡变化，信用曲线则几乎平行下移。 ►市场"惩罚"被动持券，而"激励"主动择时 复盘年初以来，债市投资具备以下三个特征：一是短久期票息资 产持有体验较优，二是中短久期利率资产的持有体验较差，三是长久 期品种的博弈属性更强，被动投资回报降低，主动择时上限不 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In June 2025, air conditioner production increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with total production of major home appliances reaching 35.15 million units, a 7.3% increase compared to the same period last year [8][1] - DJI is entering the vacuum cleaner market with a new product expected to launch in June, positioning it as a mid-to-high-end model [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Air Conditioner Production and DJI's Entry into Vacuum Cleaners - Air conditioner production in June 2025 reached 20.5 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year. Domestic sales were affected by weather conditions, but the upcoming 618 shopping festival boosted production [8][1] - Refrigerator production was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase year-on-year, driven by promotional events and government subsidies [8][1] - Washing machine production remained flat at 6.75 million units year-on-year, with domestic demand showing signs of seasonal decline [9][1] 2. Company Highlights - Aima Technology plans to grant 14,175,524 restricted stock units, representing 1.645% of its total share capital, to 421 employees as part of its incentive plan [12] - Changhong Meiling announced an investment of approximately 296.42 million yuan to build a new air conditioner production line with an annual capacity of 4 million units [12] 3. Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 0.3% [13][20] - Shipping rates increased, with the CCFI composite index rising by 0.92% [20][21] - Real estate data indicated a decline in sales area, completion area, and new construction area by 3%, 17%, and 24% respectively for the first four months of 2025 [23][24]

►大行融出反弹，银行间杠杆抬升 银行间杠杆率回升。银行融出有所修复，本周（5 月 26-30 日）日均 银行体系融出规模回升至 3.56 万亿元，前一周为 3.02 万亿元。在此背景 下，银行间平均杠杆水平抬升，由前一周的 106.95%升至 107.18%。周内 来看，杠杆水平先升后降，周一至周四由 107.07%升至 107.35%，周五或 受跨月（跨假期）影响，杠杆水平快速降至 106.99%。 伴随平稳跨月、美国关税态度反复，非银机构杠杆率抬升，平均杠杆 水平由前一周的 111.66%升至 112.32%。周内来看，非银杠杆率整体呈连 续攀升的态势，由前一周五的 111.75%逐日抬升至周四的 112.66%，周五 小幅回落至 112.11%。 交易所杠杆率在持续抬升，平均杠杆水平由前一周的 123.28%小幅升 至 123.29%。周内来看，杠杆率"一波三折"，周三杠杆水平降至 122.90%的周内低点，周四短暂抬升后，周五再度降至 123.50%。 ►基金重新博弈久期 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 月末理财环比降 ...