- The report introduces the "Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor" which measures the trend of analysts' earnings forecasts over future years. This trend can be upward, flat, or downward, representing optimistic, neutral, or pessimistic expectations, respectively. The slope of the trend line is used to quantify these expectations[1][7] - The "Momentum ff" factor, derived from the Earnings Expectation Term Structure, is combined with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor to create the "Composite Momentum ff" factor. This composite factor shows improved performance, combining high returns with stability[1][11] - The historical performance of the Earnings Expectation Term Structure factor has been good, with high stability in its trend[1][9] - The report evaluates the performance of stock selection portfolios based on the "Composite Momentum ff" factor. Portfolios are constructed by selecting the top-ranked stocks within the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 indices. The historical performance of these portfolios has been favorable[2][14] - In May 2025, the CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 stock selection portfolios underperformed their benchmarks, with excess returns of -0.15%, -0.32%, and -0.32%, respectively. The CSI 500 stock selection portfolio outperformed its benchmark with an excess return of 0.57%[2][14] - For the first five months of 2025, the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000 stock selection portfolios had returns of -1.32%, 0.38%, -0.25%, and 3.45%, respectively. The excess returns over their respective benchmarks were 1.09%, 1.33%, 1.79%, and 2.29%, respectively, all outperforming their benchmarks[2][14] Factor and Model Construction - **Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend of analysts' earnings forecasts over future years, represented by the slope of the trend line[1][7] - **Construction Process**: - Plot earnings forecast data on the Y-axis and annual variables on the X-axis - Identify the trend as upward, flat, or downward - Use the slope to quantify the trend, representing optimistic, neutral, or pessimistic expectations[1][7] - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown good historical performance with high stability[1][9] - **Composite Momentum ff Factor** - **Construction Idea**: Combines the Earnings Expectation Term Structure "Momentum ff" factor with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor to enhance performance[1][11] - **Construction Process**: - Combine the "Momentum ff" factor with the traditional analyst expectation revision factor - Evaluate the combined factor for improved performance and stability[1][11] - **Evaluation**: The composite factor shows improved performance, combining high returns with stability[1][11] Backtest Results - **Earnings Expectation Term Structure Factor** - **Cumulative IC**: Historical performance has been good with high stability[1][9] - **Composite Momentum ff Factor** - **Cumulative IC**: Shows improved performance and stability compared to traditional factors[1][11] Portfolio Performance - **CSI 300 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.15%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: -1.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.09%[2][14] - **CSI 500 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: 0.57%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: 0.38%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.33%[2][14] - **CSI 800 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: -0.25%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 1.79%[2][14] - **CSI 1000 Stock Selection Portfolio** - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -0.32%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Return**: 3.45%[2][14] - **First 5 Months of 2025 Excess Return**: 2.29%[2][14]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent changes in US tariff policies on precious metals, leading to a decline in gold and silver prices [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is cautious, with fluctuations in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain issues [8][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term price increases in copper and aluminum due to ongoing supply constraints and supportive macro policies [10][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell by 1.68% to $33.08 per ounce [1][28] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 248,838.84 troy ounces, indicating a rise in investor interest [1][28] - The US International Trade Court's ruling has temporarily halted certain tariffs, affecting market dynamics for gold and silver [4][48] Basic Metals - LME copper price dropped by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, and aluminum fell by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton [8][57] - SHFE copper price decreased by 0.24% to ¥77,600.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.42% to ¥20,070.00 per ton [8][57] - The report notes a significant decline in copper imports, with April figures showing a 19.06% decrease month-on-month [9][83] Copper - China's electrolytic copper production in April was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.36% [9][83] - The report mentions a tightening supply situation, with Antofagasta proposing negative processing fees in negotiations with Chinese smelters [10][19] - The anticipated long-term demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support copper prices [10][19] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a slight decrease in production rates [11][12] - The inventory levels for aluminum have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply [11][12] - Future demand from sectors like electric vehicles and power generation is expected to stabilize aluminum prices [11][12] Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices are facing downward pressure due to tariff uncertainties, although inventory reductions provide slight support [13][14] - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with concerns over raw material supply for recycled lead [14][14] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have retreated as downstream demand remains cautious [15] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, while vanadium prices are under pressure from weak demand [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced low-price gift box promotions during the Spring Festival, a decrease in traditional supermarket sales, and a high revenue base from the same period last year [4] - Despite the challenges, the company has shown strong growth in its comprehensive nut and bean series, with significant contributions from overseas markets [3][9] - The company is expected to improve its profit margins gradually as overseas market expansion continues and operational efficiencies are realized [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025, reflecting pressure from rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.598 billion yuan and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, and has revised EPS estimates to 4.38 yuan and 5.13 yuan for the same years [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.86%, and a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 453.95% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on rapid expansion of its discount retail business, with a significant increase in store numbers and operational efficiency [3][4] - A stock incentive plan for 2025 has been announced, aimed at enhancing the company's growth potential [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 294 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 258 million yuan, showing substantial growth compared to the previous year [2] - For Q4 of FY24, revenue reached 11.72 billion yuan, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 894.27% [2] Business Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its store network, with a total of 14,196 stores by the end of FY24, having added 9,776 stores during the reporting period [4] - The company has established 50 warehousing centers nationwide, ensuring efficient supply chain management [4] Profitability - The discount retail business achieved a net profit of 858 million yuan in FY24, with a profit margin of 2.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.32 percentage points [5] - The company’s profitability is expected to improve further due to the scale effects of its discount retail operations [5] Growth Prospects - The stock incentive plan involves granting approximately 2.21 million restricted shares to 70 core employees, with performance targets set for net profit growth over the next four years [6][7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 53.88 billion yuan and 62.09 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates also increased [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% year-on-year [2] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by the rapid expansion of UHT cream products and a recovery in frozen baked goods in Q1 2025 [3][4] - The company has shown initial effects of cost control, leading to an improvement in profit margins [5][6] - The company is expected to continue to release profit elasticity through product and channel expansion, particularly in the UHT cream segment and supermarket channels [7] Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, the company reported revenues of 3.835 billion yuan, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, and a gross margin of 31.5% [8][11] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 4.457 billion yuan and 5.170 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 1.96 yuan and 2.40 yuan [8][11] - The company’s net profit margin for FY24 was 6.99%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.90 percentage points [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its direct sales channels and is focusing on new product development and channel expansion [7][8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in FY24, but there are signs of recovery in Q1 FY25 with a slight revenue increase [2][3] - The company is actively investing in R&D and expanding its product lines, particularly in baked goods and frozen prepared dishes, to meet customer demand [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of 1.868 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71%, and a net profit of 84 million, down 37.67% [2][10] - The revenue for Q4 FY24 was 504 million, reflecting an 11.93% decline year-on-year, while Q1 FY25 saw revenue of 470 million, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 23.66%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods, primarily due to price adjustments in staple and snack products [4][6] Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company faced increased selling and administrative expenses, with the selling expense ratio rising significantly in Q1 FY25 due to heightened online promotion efforts [5] - The net profit margin for FY24 was 4.48%, which has been under pressure due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to explore C-end business opportunities and diversify sales channels, including e-commerce and traditional retail [12] - There is an expectation of improved performance as the restaurant market recovers and the company's expansion efforts take effect [8] - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to 2.030 billion and 2.231 billion, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 0.97 and 1.07 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent changes in US tariff policies on precious and base metals, with gold prices experiencing a pullback due to market optimism and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, stock markets, and the dollar [4][50] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for gold and silver prices, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and investor preferences for safe-haven assets [7][50] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped 1.68% to $33.08 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 1.06% to ¥771.80 per gram, and SHFE silver fell 0.54% to ¥8,218.00 per kilogram [28] - The US International Trade Court's ruling to block the implementation of new tariffs has led to a temporary suspension of tariffs on various imports, which has influenced market sentiment and gold prices [48][50] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 248,838.84 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 2,772,877.00 ounces [28] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, aluminum decreased 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton, zinc dropped 3.06% to $2,629.50 per ton, and lead fell 1.50% to $1,964.00 per ton [57] - SHFE copper decreased 0.24% to ¥77,600.00 per ton, aluminum fell 0.42% to ¥20,070.00 per ton, zinc increased 0.05% to ¥22,225.00 per ton, and lead dropped 1.42% to ¥16,620.00 per ton [57] - The report notes a tightening supply of copper, with Antofagasta proposing negative processing fees in negotiations with Chinese smelters, indicating a potential upward trend in copper prices [19][51] Small Metals - Magnesium prices fell 2.15% to ¥18,180 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in downstream sectors [15] - Molybdenum prices increased, with ferromolybdenum rising 3.79% to ¥246,500 per ton, driven by tight raw material costs [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 247.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 294 million yuan, up 453.95% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality growth in its discount retail business, with a significant increase in store numbers and operational efficiency [3][4] - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, aimed at enhancing growth potential [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 294 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 258 million yuan, showing substantial growth compared to the previous year [2] - For Q4 of FY24, the revenue was 11.72 billion yuan, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 894.27% [2] Business Expansion - The company has been rapidly expanding its discount retail business, achieving a revenue of 31.79 billion yuan in FY24, which is a 262.94% increase year-on-year [3] - By the end of FY24, the company had 14,196 stores, adding 9,776 new stores during the year, while maintaining a low closure rate of 2.2% [4] Profitability - The net profit margin for the discount retail business reached 2.70% in FY24, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [5] - The company’s net profit for Q1 of FY25 was 412 million yuan, with a profit margin of 3.85% [5] Incentive Plan - The company has introduced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, granting approximately 2.21 million shares to 70 core employees, with performance targets set for net profit growth over the next four years [6][7] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 53.88 billion yuan and 62.09 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates adjusted to 4.82 yuan and 6.50 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced e-commerce activities and traditional retail performance, but showed a year-on-year increase when comparing Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, which has shown significant growth from a low base, indicating increasing influence and recognition [9] - Profit margins are expected to improve gradually in subsequent quarters as operational efficiencies are realized and overseas market contributions grow [9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [2] - The company's gross margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly in Q1 2025, reflecting investments in overseas market expansion and brand promotion [6] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from various product lines in FY 2024 included 705 million yuan from mixed nuts and beans, 524 million yuan from green peas, and 302 million yuan from sunflower seeds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, and 10.48% [3] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 1762% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for future growth in international sales [3] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.598 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 4.38 yuan [10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.032 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.461 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.13 yuan and 5.72 yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% year-on-year [2] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by the rapid expansion of UHT cream products and a recovery in frozen baked goods in Q1 2025 [3][4] - The company has shown initial success in cost control, leading to an improvement in profit margins [5][6] - The forecast for revenue in 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 4.457 billion yuan and 5.170 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates increased to 1.96 yuan and 2.40 yuan [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company reported revenues of 3.835 billion yuan, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.13%, and a net profit of 88 million yuan, up 15.11% [2] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from frozen baked goods, cream, fruit products, sauces, and other baking materials showed varied performance, with cream products experiencing a 61.75% increase [3] - The company’s revenue by region in FY24 showed growth in most areas, particularly in East China and overseas markets [3] Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin for FY24 was 31.47%, with a slight decrease in Q1 2025 to 29.99% due to changes in channel and product structure [5] - The company has successfully reduced its selling and management expense ratios, indicating effective cost control measures [5][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its product matrix for UHT cream and enhance its collaboration with top clients in retail channels, which is expected to drive further growth [7] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, while EPS estimates have been increased, reflecting a more optimistic view on profitability [8]