证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降准降息落地，债市利好或出尽 ——5 月 7 日金融监管国新办新闻发布会点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 2：2025 年初以来同业存单利率走势 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 图表 1：2025 年初以来，DR001 及 DR007 利率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 图表 3：各期限国债收益率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会上监管推出一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 联系人 降准降息落地。为落实 4 月下旬政治局会议部署，应对高关税对经济的潜在冲击，5 月 7 日金融监管层在国新办新闻发布会上推出了一揽子金融政策，将助力经济稳增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's copper business has significantly increased, contributing to substantial growth in performance [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 53.59% [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.811 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 42.49%, and a net profit of 422 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.1% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 7.399 billion RMB, net profit of 1.031 billion RMB - 2024: Revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, net profit of 1.584 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 12.276 billion RMB, net profit of 2.108 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 13.290 billion RMB, net profit of 2.425 billion RMB - 2027E: Revenue of 13.647 billion RMB, net profit of 2.640 billion RMB [6][8] - The company expects a net profit growth rate of 33.09% for 2025, 15.06% for 2026, and 8.84% for 2027 [7][8] Market Performance - The copper business saw a sales volume increase of 383% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 49,200 tons [7] - The company plans to sell 78,900 tons of copper in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60% [7] - The mining service business revenue was stable, with a slight decline in unit gross profit [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the national large-scale grain storage construction and equipment updates, indicating a solid growth potential in the coming years [6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.652 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.84%, with a net profit of 234 million yuan, up 7.34% year-on-year [6] - The company is a leader in the domestic grain storage sector, with a forecasted net profit of 282 million yuan for 2025, 358 million yuan for 2026, and 441 million yuan for 2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20, 16, and 13 times respectively [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5,578.67 million yuan, with a closing price of 10.89 yuan per share [3] - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.234 billion yuan, 3.975 billion yuan, and 4.916 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.95%, 22.89%, and 23.69% [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 25.49%, with a slight decrease expected in subsequent years [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large energy sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stable performance of hydropower, the negative impact of wind conditions on short-term performance, and the differentiation in thermal power profitability [6][31][37] Hydropower Summary - Hydropower performance is expected to be stable with improved rainfall in 2024, contributing to an increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025. The national rainfall is projected to be 9% above normal, with hydropower utilization hours increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [20][21] - Major hydropower companies are expected to see performance align with expectations, with notable growth in Q1 2025 for companies like Changjiang Power and Huaneng Hydropower [25][26] - The report highlights the importance of local hydropower pricing advantages and the stability of the business model and policy environment as key factors for investment [28][29] Renewable Energy Summary - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are impacted by falling electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [31][36] - The report suggests focusing on long-term value in wind power operators despite current challenges, as the market is expected to favor those with sustainable development returns [36][37] Thermal Power Summary - The thermal power sector is experiencing improved profitability due to declining coal prices, although there is significant regional differentiation in performance [37] - The report notes that while northern thermal power operators are seeing better performance, regions like Guangdong are facing challenges due to market price declines [8][37] Investment Recommendations - The report provides three stock selection strategies: focusing on state-owned enterprises undergoing asset integration, selecting resilient hydropower assets, and identifying undervalued wind power operators [9][11] - Key recommended stocks include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuan Investment Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Wan Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The default risk of AVIC Industry - Finance bonds is relatively small, and the valuation anomaly may be mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand due to the company's delisting. The company has strong solvency and willingness to repay debts [4][29]. - After the bond resumed trading on April 24, 2025, except for the significant increase in yields on the first day due to investors' concentrated selling for risk - aversion, the yield fluctuations slowed down from April 25 to April 30, indicating that the adjustment may have been in place. It is advisable to pay attention to the valuation repair space after the short - term over - decline [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 AVIC Industry - Finance Delisting Event Timeline - On March 27, 2025, due to AVIC Industry - Finance's controlling shareholder planning major issues, the company's stocks and bonds were suspended from trading starting March 28. - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance announced the termination of its stock listing through a shareholders' meeting resolution and offered a cash option of 3.54 yuan per share to dissenting shareholders (not exceeding 4.304 billion shares). - On April 23, 2025, the proposal for bond delisting was not passed, and the company's exchange - traded bonds resumed trading on April 24 [3][5]. 3.2 Company Overview of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Equity Structure**: As of March 29, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance had a total share capital of 8.821 billion shares. AVIC held 39.89% of the shares directly and controlled 11.13% indirectly through its subsidiaries. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council was the actual controller [8]. - **Main Business**: AVIC Industry - Finance is an industrial investment and financial service platform of AVIC, engaging in businesses such as financial leasing, trust, securities, and futures through its subsidiaries [11]. - **Financial Status**: According to the 2024 annual performance forecast, AVIC Industry - Finance's net profit attributable to the parent company was - 0.48 billion yuan, and the non - recurring profit and loss net profit attributable to the parent company was - 1.89 billion yuan, the first negative in nearly 17 years. The company's operating performance was affected by business transformation and the macro - economic situation [12]. 3.3 Reasons for AVIC Industry - Finance's Delisting - The continuous decline in AVIC Industry - Finance's performance in recent years, especially the significant drag of the trust business on the overall performance, may be the main reason for its delisting. From 2021 to 2023, the company's total operating income decreased by 11.2%, and the trust business income decreased by 55.4% [3][15]. - AVIC Trust, responsible for the trust business, was affected by the real - estate industry adjustment, with its performance shrinking significantly. Some underlying assets of its real - estate - related trust projects defaulted. The company may hope to delist its stocks and convert standard bonds to "non - standard" to reduce information disclosure and avoid negative public opinion, thus gaining more space for risk disposal [3][16][20]. 3.4 Bond Market Performance of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Bond Balance**: As of April 30, 2025, the balance of AVIC Industry - Finance's domestic bonds was 27.27 billion yuan, and the cumulative overseas debt was 700 million US dollars [21]. - **Yield Performance**: Since the company announced its voluntary delisting on March 28, 2025, except for "24 AVIC Industry - Finance SCP006", the ChinaBond行权 valuations of other domestic debts have increased by more than 100BP, with "23 Industry - Finance 05" having the largest spread of 386BP [3][22]. - **Maturity Distribution**: The maturity and put - back amounts in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 were relatively large, at 5 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively, and the scale decreased in Q4 of 2025 and later. There is no situation where the company faces significant debt - repayment pressure due to concentrated bond redemptions [2][22]. - **Trading Situation**: From April 24 to April 30, 2025, except for one transaction of "22 Industry - Finance 03" at a premium (the maximum weighted trading price was 100.14 yuan per bond), the rest were traded at a discount, and bonds with longer remaining terms generally had a higher discount ratio [2][24]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - **Solvency**: As of September 30, 2024, AVIC Industry - Finance's cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis were 51.6 billion yuan, and the balance of readily realizable trading financial assets was 55.9 billion yuan. As of the end of 2023, the company and its subsidiaries had a credit line of 338.1 billion yuan from major loan banks, with 230 billion yuan unused [29]. - **Willingness to Repay Debts**: AVIC Industry - Finance has the credit endorsement of a central enterprise. After announcing its delisting, the company actively organized on - site communication meetings with bondholders and declared in multiple announcements that it would ensure bond repayment on schedule, and has no credit default record in the public market [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report Group 2: Report's Core View - The report predicts that in April 2025, new loans will reach 800 billion yuan, and social financing will be 1.5 trillion yuan. By the end of April, M2 will reach 323.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; M1 (new caliber) will have a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; and the social financing growth rate will be 8.8% [2]. - Throughout the year, new loans are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of around 8.3% [3]. - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. High - tariff shocks are expected to cause the economic growth rate to decline in the second quarter, but the decline may be better than the bond market's expectations. The bond market should focus on the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is recommended to conduct credit risk - taking to obtain coupons, and there may be no trend - based opportunities in the bond market in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In April, new loans may increase slightly year - on - year. It is estimated that new loans in April will be 800 billion yuan, with individual loans decreasing by 10 billion yuan, corporate credit increasing by 70 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans increasing by 20 billion yuan [3]. - Due to the weak new loans in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2024, new loans in the next few quarters may increase year - on - year [3]. M1 and M2 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to rebound in April, and the M2 growth rate will rise slightly. The new - caliber M1 growth rate in April is expected to be 2.1%, with a month - on - month increase; the old - caliber M1 growth rate is - 0.2%, also with a month - on - month increase. The M2 growth rate in April is expected to be 7.4%, showing a slight increase [3]. Social Financing - The social financing growth rate may rebound significantly in April. It is predicted that the social financing increment in April will be 1.5 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase, mainly from credit, government bonds, and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of April is expected to be 8.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [3]. Bond Market - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. If an agreement is reached between China and the US to reduce tariffs to the beginning - of - the - year level in the next six months, the high point of the 10 - year treasury bond yield this year may still reach 1.9%, and the economy in 2025 is still expected to stabilize. Since tariff negotiations are difficult and may not succeed in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate in the second quarter [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [4][7] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the garment accessories sector, with solid capacity and product layout that strengthen its competitive advantage [4][7] - The Chinese garment accessories market is expected to maintain stable growth, with a projected CAGR of 5.03% from 2023 to 2030, reaching a market size of 129.16 billion yuan by 2030 [6][13] - The company has been focusing on overseas capacity expansion and product innovation to enhance operational efficiency and customer collaboration [9][31] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of 3,907 million yuan, net profit of 558 million yuan - 2024: Revenue of 4,674 million yuan (up 19.66% YoY), net profit of 700 million yuan (up 25.48% YoY) - 2025: Revenue of 5,183 million yuan (up 10.89% YoY), net profit of 783 million yuan (up 11.80% YoY) - 2026: Revenue of 5,703 million yuan (up 10.02% YoY), net profit of 879 million yuan (up 12.33% YoY) - 2027: Revenue of 6,209 million yuan (up 8.88% YoY), net profit of 967 million yuan (up 9.95% YoY) [5][52] Market Dynamics - The company has established over 20 sales subsidiaries and more than 50 marketing outlets globally, enhancing its collaboration with leading apparel brands [30][31] - The company is committed to high-standard green smart factory construction, which has led to continuous improvements in operational efficiency [48][49] Research and Development - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenses reaching 181 million yuan in 2024, a 13.04% increase YoY, and holds 1,372 valid patents [44][50] - The company’s products have received multiple design awards, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [46][47] Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a top player in the garment accessories sector, benefiting from its operational efficiency, product innovation, and capacity growth [7][9] - Comparable companies in the same sector include Huayi Group and Anta Sports, which provide a benchmark for valuation [7][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to channel reform and brand synergy efforts in the silver health industry [5] - The company aims to become a leader in the silver health industry and chronic disease management, with a clear strategic goal [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.53%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 31.06% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 36.91%, a decrease of 5.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.06%, down 0.50 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company expects revenue growth from 2023 to 2027, with projected revenues of 7.703 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 11.401 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.79% [6][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 750 million yuan, 909 million yuan, and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.73%, 21.22%, and 18.45% [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 15.44, 12.74, and 10.75, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the "777" brand strategy to enhance its market position in the cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment sector [7] - The company is also implementing a "Kun Traditional Medicine 1381" brand strategy to strengthen its product influence and sales growth [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 417 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.39 million yuan, up 107.34% year-on-year [5] - The company benefits from the home appliance replacement subsidy policy, which stimulates market demand, and the promising outlook in the server sector drives growth in the company's rail business [5] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 119 valid patents driving product innovation and a commitment to ESG responsibilities through low-carbon production practices [5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.56%, and a net profit of 19.22 million yuan, up 19.58% year-on-year [5] - The rail business generated revenue of 408 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 47.29%, accounting for 97.93% of total revenue [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 92 million yuan, 108 million yuan, and 127 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.01, 2.37, and 2.78 yuan per share [5][7] Market Outlook - The global server rail kit market is projected to grow from 60 million USD in 2024 to 110 million USD by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.4% [5] - The company is actively expanding its market presence and increasing customer numbers, with export revenue reaching 75.73 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 135.76% [5] R&D and Innovation - The company has maintained stable R&D investment, resulting in the acquisition of 11 new invention patents in 2024, with a total of 119 valid patents by the end of the year [5] - The company plans to optimize workshop layouts and increase production capacity in 2025 to meet future growth needs [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Travel demand exceeded market expectations during the May Day holiday, with ticket prices remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The Ministry of Transport estimated that 1.467 billion people would travel across regions, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among these, air travel reached 11.143 million passengers, up 11.8% year-on-year, and 24.2% compared to 2019. The average ticket price during the holiday was approximately 943 yuan, slightly higher than last year (+0.7%) [4] - The inbound tourism sector is expected to become a new growth point, with the National Immigration Administration predicting an average of 2.15 million inbound and outbound travelers per day during the holiday, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Inbound travel orders increased by 130% year-on-year, with significant growth in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Yiwu [4] - The aviation sector's performance in Q1 was under pressure due to declining ticket prices and cost pressures, despite growing demand. However, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, stabilizing ticket prices as travel volume continues to rise, supported by favorable external conditions such as declining oil prices and stable exchange rates [4] Summary by Sections - **Travel Demand and Pricing**: The travel demand during the May Day holiday was higher than expected, with stable ticket prices compared to last year. The average ticket price was around 943 yuan, showing a slight increase [4] - **Inbound Tourism Growth**: The inbound tourism sector is projected to grow, with significant increases in inbound travel orders and favorable government policies promoting tourism [4] - **Q1 Performance and Future Outlook**: The aviation sector faced challenges in Q1, but the outlook for Q2 is positive due to improving supply-demand dynamics and external market conditions [4]